SKENARIO INDONESIA 2045

Al Pegagany

29 Aug 202111:50

Summary

TLDRThe script envisions a 2045 Indonesia with a pragmatic and rational new generation, highly educated and proficient in IT. The government operates transparently and effectively, with a mature democracy and social justice deeply rooted. Despite political pressures, the role of the Constitutional Court and other oversight bodies minimizes government and DPR pressures. The economy resembles a diamond, with a larger middle class and medium-sized industries driving growth and stability. The government applies green economy principles, transitioning to low-carbon energy, and focuses on sustainable development goals. However, challenges remain, including regional disparities, inefficient governance, and a lack of national pride. Despite these, Indonesia progresses towards a hopeful future, addressing environmental and resource issues with innovative solutions.

Takeaways

🌐 Indonesia in 2045 is envisioned as a pragmatic and rational society, with a highly educated population proficient in IT and deeply rooted in universal values like democracy and social justice.
🏛️ The government operates transparently and effectively, with a mature democracy that includes checks and balances from the constitution court and other oversight bodies.
📉 Despite the pressure from the People’s Representative Council (DPR), the role of the judiciary and other oversight institutions minimizes the pressure on the government, promoting critical societal participation.
🏢 The political system still has flaws, with many business elites holding positions in state institutions, leading to conflicts of interest and dissatisfaction among the populace.
🌱 The 2045 generation views the unity of the Indonesian state not out of historical romanticism but based on the benefits that regions receive from being part of the nation.
🏗️ The government strives to maintain the unity of the state by fulfilling regional aspirations, particularly for resource-rich areas, and prioritizing their development.
📊 The Indonesian economy by 2045 resembles a diamond shape, with a larger middle class and a significant manufacturing sector, contributing to a more equitable distribution of prosperity and social stability.
🌾 The government seriously implements technology in the agricultural sector and supports it with good infrastructure to balance the more advanced industrial sector.
🚀 Indonesia becomes one of the world's high-growth industrial nations, with regions interconnected and integrated into the ASEAN and Asia-Pacific economies.
📉 The government often lacks responsiveness to global economic cycles, leading to widespread recessions and challenges in oversight and governance.
🌳 Indonesia implements sustainable development goals by 2045, focusing on human development, infrastructure and environment, and a green economy to minimize carbon emissions and ensure energy and food security.

Q & A

What is the general perspective of the new generation in Indonesia by 2045 according to the script?
-The new generation in 2045 is described as pragmatic and rational, highly educated, and proficient in IT. They have a deep belief in universal values, especially democracy and social justice.
How is the central government portrayed in the script for the year 2045?
-The central government is depicted as transparent, efficient, and open to criticism. It is seen as more mature in its democratic practices.
What role do the courts and other oversight institutions play in the political scenario of 2045?
-The courts and other oversight institutions minimize the pressure from the DPR on the government, indicating a more balanced system of checks and balances.
How does the script describe the societal participation in 2045?
-Societal participation is described as a critical force that serves as the greatest form of control, not only for the government but also for all institutions, including the DPR.
What is the view of the 2045 generation on the unity of the NKRI (Unitary State of the Republic of Indonesia)?
-The 2045 generation sees the unity of NKRI not based on historical romanticism but on the benefits that regions should feel from being part of the republic.
How does the government attempt to maintain the NKRI according to the script?
-The government tries to maintain the NKRI by fulfilling the aspirations of the regions, especially those rich in natural resources, and by prioritizing their development.
What challenges does the central government face in terms of regional development?
-The central government faces challenges such as the misuse of funds for development by regional leaders for political interests and maintaining power, and the lack of quality institutions and human resources in the regions.
What is the economic structure of Indonesia in 2045 as described in the script?
-The economic structure is compared to a bell pepper, with a larger middle class and a larger manufacturing sector in the middle compared to the poor or large conglomerates and small sectors.
How does the government address the agricultural sector and support small and medium enterprises (SMEs)?
-The government seriously applies technology to the agricultural sector and supports it with good infrastructure. It also empowers SMEs and limits the monopoly of large industries.
What is the impact of the government's economic policies on the Indonesian economy by 2045?
-The policies have led to Indonesia becoming one of the world's high-growth industrial nations, with regions interconnected and a robust economy.
What are the challenges faced by the Indonesian government in terms of global economic cycles?
-The government often lacks responsiveness to global economic cycles, leading to widespread recessions, difficulties in oversight, and issues such as land disputes, corruption, and poverty.
How does the script describe Indonesia's geopolitical situation in 2045?
-Despite the challenges and issues, Indonesia's geopolitical situation is moving towards the desired direction, with sustainable development goals being implemented and a green economy being adopted.
What are the sustainable development goals mentioned in the script for 2045?
-The goals include human development through education and health, the availability of infrastructure and environmental growth, and environmental development with good natural resources and environmental quality.
What is the script's view on the implementation of the green economy in Indonesia?
-The script mentions the implementation of a low-carbon economy, which minimizes high-carbon energy use and encourages the transition from high-carbon non-renewable energy to lower-carbon renewable energy.
What conflicts arise from the implementation of sustainable development according to the script?
-Conflicts arise from overlapping interests between the central government, regional governments, local communities, and investors, leading to a decrease in land quality and quantity.
How does the script address the issue of food security in Indonesia?
-The script mentions that food security is still vulnerable due to the inability to be self-sufficient in food, with private sector participation through green banking and green fencing as a fresh approach to address the issue.
What is the script's final assessment of Indonesia's situation in 2045?
-Despite various environmental and resource issues, the script concludes that the spirit and innovation of the people will continue to find solutions, even if they are not as simple as flipping a hand.

Outlines

00:00

🌟 Vision of Indonesia's Mature Democracy in 2045

The script envisions a future Indonesia in 2045 where a new generation with a pragmatic and rational outlook has emerged. Almost everyone in this generation has a high level of education and mastery over IT. Global interactions have instilled a deep belief in universal values, particularly democracy and social justice. These principles are applied not only in governance but also in bureaucracy. The central government operates transparently, effectively, and is open to criticism, making democracy appear more mature. Despite the ongoing pressure from the House of Representatives (DPR), the role of the Constitutional Court and other oversight institutions minimizes the pressure on the government. Critical public participation emerges as a major control force, not only for the government but also for all institutions, including the DPR. However, the political system still has flaws, with many business elites holding positions in state institutions, leading to conflicts of interest and dissatisfaction among the public. The 2045 generation views the unity of the NKRI not out of historical romanticism but based on the benefits that regions should feel from joining the NKRI. The government tries to maintain the NKRI by fulfilling regional aspirations, especially for resource-rich areas, and prioritizes their development. However, the quality of institutions and human resources in these regions is not always good and even, leading to misuse of development funds for political purposes and maintaining power. Rapid development in new areas becomes a magnet for migration from densely populated areas like Java, leading to social crises in the central areas.

05:01

🚀 Indonesia's Economic and Social Progress by 2045

By 2045, Indonesia's economy resembles a diamond shape with a larger middle class compared to the poor population and conglomerates. The middle class plays a significant role in the economy, promoting cooperation between large and small industries, and fostering entrepreneurship in various regions, leading to more equitable prosperity and maintaining economic and social stability. The government seriously applies technology in the agricultural sector and supports it with good infrastructure to balance the more advanced industrial sector. Additionally, the government actively empowers micro, small, and medium enterprises (UMKM) and imposes restrictions on large industries regarding land ownership monopolies and oligopolies. These policies create a harmonious business climate and a healthy market, making Indonesia one of the world's high-growth industrial nations. The regions are interconnected, and Indonesia is connected with ASEAN countries and other major economies in the Asia-Pacific. However, the government often lacks responsiveness to global economic business cycles, leading to recessions in numerous and widespread areas, making supervision difficult. This situation leads to disparities in the quality of regional governments, violations of land regulations, land disputes between people and industries, and corruption, although in reduced quantities and qualities. Despite the challenges, Indonesia's geographical condition as an archipelago with a large and diverse population remains a challenge for efficient, effective, and fair national management.

10:01

🌱 Sustainable Development and Environmental Challenges in 2045

In 2045, Indonesia has implemented sustainable development concepts, focusing on three main pillars: human development through education and health, infrastructure and economic growth, and environmental development with the availability of natural resources and good environmental quality. Indonesia has adopted a green economy system, promoting low-carbon policies to minimize the use of high-carbon energy due to serious pollution issues. The transition from high-carbon non-renewable energy to low-carbon renewable energy is beneficial for national energy resilience. On the other hand, spatial optimization is carried out to allow sector development without damaging the environment, referring to land, water, air, and other natural resources management. However, there are still conflicts due to overlapping interests between the central government, regional governments, local communities, and investors, affecting the quality and quantity of land use. Despite inclusive economic programs, disparities remain an issue. Food security is still vulnerable due to the inability to be self-sufficient in food, affected by global food deficits. The participation of the private sector with green banking and green fencing concepts brings fresh air amid various problems, providing loans for development programs that strengthen national energy and food security. Various environmental and natural resource issues will continue to arise even in 2045, but the spirit and innovation will give birth to various solutions, although not as easy as turning one's hand.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Pragmatic and Rational

This term describes a generation that is practical and logical in their approach to decision-making. In the context of the video, it refers to the new generation in 2045 Indonesia, who are well-educated and proficient in IT. They apply these traits to their understanding and implementation of universal values such as democracy and social justice, as seen in the script's mention of 'generasi baru yang, berpandangan pragmatis dan rasional.'

💡Social Justice

Social justice is the concept of creating a society where the distribution of resources and opportunities is fair and equitable. The video emphasizes the importance of social justice as a core principle applied in governance and bureaucracy, as indicated by 'prinsip keadilan sosial dan demokrasi.' It suggests that social justice is a fundamental aspect of the mature democracy envisioned for Indonesia in 2045.

💡Transparency

Transparency in governance means that the processes and decisions of the government are open and clear to the public. The script mentions 'pemerintahan pusat berjalan transparan,' illustrating the expectation of a transparent central government that is open to criticism and operates effectively.

💡Constitutive Court

A constitutive court, or constitutional court, is a high court that deals with constitutional matters. In the script, it is one of the institutions that helps to minimize the pressure on the government by providing checks and balances, as referenced in 'peran mahkamah konstitusi.'

💡Critical Participation

Critical participation refers to the active involvement of citizens in the political process with a critical mindset. The video script talks about 'partisipasi kritis masyarakat muncul' as a powerful form of control not only over the government but also over all institutions, including the parliament, indicating the importance of an engaged and discerning citizenry.

💡Economic Structure

The economic structure refers to the composition and organization of an economy in terms of its various sectors and the relationships between them. The video describes Indonesia's economy in 2045 as resembling a 'belahan ketupat,' with a larger middle class and a significant manufacturing sector, indicating a balanced and diversified economy.

💡Green Economy

A green economy is one that aims for sustainable development by reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities. The script mentions 'sistem Green economy' and discusses the implementation of low-carbon economic policies to minimize carbon pollution, which is a key aspect of Indonesia's development goals in 2045.

💡Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDGs are a collection of 17 global goals set by the United Nations to address various social, economic, and environmental issues. The video script refers to the implementation of these goals in Indonesia by 2045, focusing on human development, infrastructure and environment, and economic growth, as stated in 'konsep perencanaan pembangunan, berkelanjutan atau sustainable Development Goals.'

💡Inclusive Economy

An inclusive economy is one that provides equal opportunities for all segments of the population to participate in and benefit from economic growth. The script mentions 'pemerintah sudah melakukan berbagai program perekonomian inklusif,' indicating efforts to ensure that economic development is accessible to everyone and reduces disparities.

💡Nationalism

Nationalism is the sentiment of loyalty and devotion to one's nation. The video script discusses a crisis of nationalism in Indonesia, where there is a lack of national spirit among various groups, including the public, NGOs, and even government institutions, as shown in 'seringkali kepentingan pribadi dan golongan di atas segalanya.'

💡Geopolitical Challenges

Geopolitical challenges refer to the difficulties a country faces in terms of its position and influence in global politics. The script highlights the challenges Indonesia faces due to its vast archipelagic nature and diverse policies, as mentioned in 'pendek kata secara geopolitik hamparan, kepulauan nusantara adalah anugrah yang luar biasa.'

Highlights

In 2045, Indonesia is filled with a new generation that is pragmatic and rational, with almost all having higher education and mastery of IT.

Global interactions have deeply rooted the values of universal principles, especially democracy and social justice.

The central government operates transparently, effectively, and is open to criticism, with a more mature democracy.

The role of the Constitutional Court and other oversight institutions minimizes the pressure of the People's Representative Council (DPR) on the government.

Critical public participation emerges as the greatest control force, not only for the government but also for all institutions including the DPR.

The 2045 generation views the unity of the Unitary State of the Republic of Indonesia (NKRI) not based on historical romanticism but on regional benefits from joining NKRI.

The government tries to maintain NKRI by fulfilling the aspirations of rich resource regions and prioritizing their development.

However, central efforts to build regions are not always supported by good quality institutions and evenly distributed human resources.

Some regional leaders misuse funds for political interests and to maintain power, leading to rapid development in new regions attracting migration from densely populated areas like Java.

The quality of human resources in indigenous communities is competing with incomers in exploiting regional wealth, while some regions are rich in development and others are less touched.

This disparity causes jealousy leading to a desire for disintegration.

Indonesia's economy in 2045 resembles a diamond shape with a larger middle class compared to the poor or conglomerates, and a larger manufacturing sector compared to small and large sectors.

The middle class has an independent, critical attitude and highly values equality, playing a significant role in the economy by promoting partnerships between large and small/medium industries.

The government seriously applies technology to the agricultural sector and supports it with good infrastructure to balance the previously more advanced industrial sector.

The government also empowers micro, small and medium enterprises (UMKM) and limits large industries in terms of land ownership monopolies and oligopolies.

By 2045, Indonesia has become one of the world's high-growth industrial nations, with interconnected regions and connections to ASEAN countries and other Asia-Pacific economic powers.

However, the Indonesian government often lacks responsiveness to global economic business cycles, resulting in widespread regional recessions.

Despite various challenges, by 2045, Indonesia has implemented sustainable development goals focusing on human development, infrastructure and economic growth, and environmental development.

Indonesia has adopted a green economy system with a low-carbon economy, minimizing high-carbon energy use and transitioning from high-carbon non-renewable energy to lower-carbon renewable energy.

Spatial optimization is carried out so that sectors can develop without damaging the environment, but conflicts still arise from overlapping interests in land use planning.

Private sector participation with green banking and green fencing concepts provides funding for development programs that strengthen national energy and food security.

Despite various environmental and natural resource issues, innovation and spirit give birth to various solutions, even if they are not as simple as flipping a hand.