Mungkinkah Indonesia Menjadi "Negara Maju"?

Summary

The video script discusses the feasibility of achieving a 7% sustainable economic growth rate for Indonesia by 2045, a goal often referred to as 'Indonesia Emas'. It highlights the importance of increasing per capita income to escape the middle-income trap and become an advanced nation. The speaker emphasizes the need to improve domestic savings, investment efficiency, and export diversification, while also suggesting that increasing tax ratios and boosting domestic productivity are crucial. The script also touches on the importance of foreign direct investment and a strong legal framework to foster a healthy investment climate.

Takeaways

• 😀 The speaker questions the feasibility of achieving a 6-7% sustainable economic growth rate for Indonesia's vision of 'Indonesia Emas 2045' (Golden Indonesia 2045).
• 🌟 The term 'Indonesia Emas' is seen as a marketing concept rather than a clear economic strategy, with the real goal being to escape the middle-income trap and become an advanced nation.
• 📈 The speaker explains that to be considered an advanced nation, Indonesia's per capita income needs to rise significantly from the current $4,500 to over $13,000.
• 💡 The demographic bonus, with a large productive-age population, is highlighted as a potential support for achieving the vision, but the challenge lies in how to spread this information effectively among the society.
• 🔢 The formula for calculating economic growth is presented: (Current GDP - Previous Year's GDP) / Previous Year's GDP * 100%, emphasizing the importance of GDP and its components like consumption, government spending, investment, and net exports.
• 🏭 The script points out that Indonesia's economy is heavily reliant on household consumption, which made it less affected by the pandemic compared to manufacturing and export-dependent countries.
• 📊 The Investment Coefficient (ICOR) is introduced as an indicator of investment efficiency, with Indonesia's high ICOR implying that a large investment-to-GDP ratio is needed to achieve economic growth.
• 💼 The need for increasing domestic savings to finance the required investment for economic growth is discussed, as well as the potential negative impacts of a trade deficit on the currency.
• 📈 The importance of raising the tax ratio to increase domestic savings is mentioned, but it's noted that simply raising tax rates may not be the best approach and could have negative economic effects.
• 🚀 The script suggests that increasing domestic productivity could lower the ICOR, reducing the investment needed for a high economic growth rate.
• 🌐 Diversification of exports is recommended to reduce reliance on volatile commodity markets, and the need for innovation supported by research and development is emphasized.
• 🏢 The role of foreign direct investment (FDI) in achieving economic growth is acknowledged, with the condition that it must comply with existing laws and a healthy investment climate is necessary.

Q & A

What is the target economic growth rate for Indonesia to achieve the vision of 'Indonesia Emas 2045'?

The target economic growth rate for Indonesia to achieve the vision of 'Indonesia Emas 2045' is around 6 to 7% sustained and constant.

What does 'Indonesia Emas' mean, and what is the goal behind this term?

'Indonesia Emas' refers to a state where Indonesia can escape the middle-income trap and become an advanced nation, not just a developing country. The goal is to increase the per capita income to a level that categorizes Indonesia as an advanced nation.

What is the current per capita income of Indonesia, and what is the target for 2045?

The current per capita income of Indonesia is around $4,500. The target for 2045 is to reach a per capita income of over $13,000, which would categorize Indonesia as an advanced nation.

What is the demographic bonus mentioned in the script, and how does it support the vision of 'Indonesia Emas'?

The demographic bonus refers to the large number of productive-age population in Indonesia. This supports the vision of 'Indonesia Emas' as it provides a workforce that can contribute to the economic growth and development of the country.

Why is the information about the urgency of a 7% economic growth rate not widely understood or discussed in society?

The information about the urgency of a 7% economic growth rate is not widely understood or discussed in society because it has not been effectively mapped or elaborated upon. It is often discussed in political contexts without providing the necessary information or strategies to achieve it.

What is the formula to calculate the economic growth rate, as mentioned in the script?

The formula to calculate the economic growth rate is: (Current year's GDP - Previous year's GDP) / Previous year's GDP * 100%.

How does Indonesia's economy currently rely on its components, and what are these components?

Indonesia's economy currently relies heavily on household consumption. The components of GDP, as mentioned, include household consumption, government spending, investment, and net exports (exports minus imports).

What is the significance of the Investment Coefficient (ICOR) in the context of Indonesia's economy?

The Investment Coefficient (ICOR) is an indicator that measures the efficiency of investment in an economy. A lower ICOR indicates a more efficient investment, and for Indonesia to achieve a 7% economic growth rate, it needs to improve its ICOR, which is currently high at 6.8%.

What are the implications of a high ICOR for Indonesia's investment needs and economic growth?

A high ICOR implies that Indonesia needs a larger ratio of investment to GDP to achieve economic growth. For a 7% growth rate, Indonesia would need an investment of 41% to 47% of its GDP, which translates to a significant amount of investment capital.

How does the script suggest increasing Indonesia's domestic savings to finance the required investment for economic growth?

The script suggests increasing domestic savings by raising the tax ratio, not necessarily the tax rate. It emphasizes the need for a strategic approach to increase tax efficiency and savings without negatively impacting the economy.

What role does export diversification play in achieving a 7% economic growth rate, according to the script?

Export diversification is crucial for achieving a 7% economic growth rate because it reduces reliance on volatile commodity exports and allows Indonesia to produce and market a variety of products that are in demand globally, thus stabilizing and increasing economic growth.

Why is innovation important for Indonesia's economic growth, and what challenges does the country face in this area?

Innovation is important for creating new products and improving competitiveness in the global market. However, Indonesia faces challenges due to a lack of focus and investment in research and development, with only 0.3% of the national budget allocated to this sector.

What is the significance of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in achieving the 7% economic growth rate, and what conditions are necessary for it?

FDI is significant as it can fill the investment gap needed for economic growth. To attract FDI, Indonesia needs a strong legal framework and a healthy investment climate with clear regulations, which can inspire confidence in foreign investors.

What conclusion does the script draw about the feasibility of achieving a 7% economic growth rate in Indonesia?

The script concludes that achieving a 7% economic growth rate is theoretically possible but will require significant efforts, including increasing domestic savings, improving productivity, diversifying exports, fostering innovation, and creating a conducive investment climate.