TESLA Stock - Big Move Coming Next?

Summary

In this Tesla stock update video, the presenter analyzes current market trends and shares insights on Tesla's stock performance. They discuss a potential rising wedge pattern in Tesla’s price action, cautioning that it could lead to a breakdown, but also noting that there are still possibilities for upward movement. The video covers key levels to watch, technical analysis, and the broader market's behavior. The presenter also shares their personal trading rules, emphasizing patience and risk management, particularly around major resistance levels. The market outlook remains uncertain, with a focus on watching for critical breakouts or breakdowns.

Takeaways

• 📈 Tesla is currently setting up in a potentially constructive but slightly concerning pattern, with a rising wedge that could signal either a breakout or a breakdown.
• ⚠️ Key resistance for Tesla is around the $430–$440 range, which may act as a 'brick wall' unless bullish momentum breaks through.
• 🔴 Short-term bearish signals include a bearish piercing candle and a rising wedge pattern; confirmation would require a close below recent lows around $416–$417.
• 🟢 Upside potential exists if Tesla breaks above resistance, with possible targets in the $440 range and the ability to turn $430–$440 into support.
• 🟡 Daily 9 EMA is a critical level; trading far from it increases risk, and the presenter avoids buying Tesla unless it is closer to this level.
• 📊 Historical patterns suggest Tesla may follow previous setups, with potential small dips followed by rallies similar to post-election and May scenarios.
• 💹 The broader market remains bullish, with SPY and Qs approaching previous all-time highs, but there may be a seasonal pullback in the second half of September.
• 📉 Market pullback targets: SPY could drop to around $640, and Qs may reach $580–$575, with worst-case scenarios at $540 for Qs.
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• 💡 The presenter emphasizes patience, waiting for confirmation from technical setups rather than chasing stocks near resistance.
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• 🔔 Technical indicators like the 4-hour SMI and trend lines are respected by Tesla, indicating that these patterns may guide short-term movements.
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• 💰 The script promotes YouTube membership tiers for daily market insights, including options for Tesla, Nvidia, and other individual stock updates.

Q & A

What is the main focus of the video?

The video focuses on analyzing Tesla stock and the broader market, offering technical analysis and discussing potential market movements over the next couple of weeks.

What is the significance of the 'rising wedge' pattern mentioned in the video?

The 'rising wedge' pattern is generally seen as a bearish pattern, suggesting that the stock might eventually collapse after reaching its apex. This is a key concern for the speaker when analyzing Tesla's stock movement.

What does the speaker mean by 'Nine EMA'?

The 'Nine EMA' refers to the 9-day Exponential Moving Average, which the speaker uses as a key indicator for assessing the risk/reward ratio of a stock. They avoid trading when a stock is too far away from this line.

Why does the speaker avoid trading stocks that are too far from the Nine EMA?

The speaker believes that when a stock is too far from its Nine EMA, the risk/reward ratio is not favorable. The stock may be overextended, making it a less safe investment until it returns closer to the Nine EMA.

What is the importance of the levels 430 to 440 for Tesla's stock?

The levels 430 to 440 are seen as a major resistance zone for Tesla's stock. If the stock can break through this range and turn it into support, it would be a strong bullish signal.

How does the speaker plan to monitor Tesla's stock next week?

The speaker plans to monitor key levels, such as 432 to 416, and looks for confirmation through price movement. A break above these levels would signal bullishness, while a break below would suggest bearishness.

What is the significance of the bearish candle patterns (bearish engulfing and bearish piercing)?

These bearish candle patterns indicate a potential reversal, but they require confirmation through further price action. The speaker is waiting for confirmation, which could be a red day closing below the previous low.

What are the risks of buying near major resistance levels?

The risks include entering a position where the stock is unlikely to break through resistance, leading to potential losses. The speaker emphasizes waiting for confirmation before buying near resistance.

What does the speaker mean by 'bangers' in the context of the market?

The term 'bangers' refers to successful stock picks or trades that have performed well, providing significant returns.

What is the speaker's opinion on the broader market?

The speaker suggests that the broader market is currently bullish, but acknowledges that the second half of September is historically one of the weakest times for the market. They anticipate potential pullbacks but emphasize the importance of waiting for key levels to break before making any moves.