NVDA Stock - Has NVIDIA Topped? Or $170 Next?

Summary

In this Nvidia daily update, the host provides an in-depth technical analysis of Nvidia's stock performance, discussing potential resistance levels, bullish patterns, and risks. He highlights a potential top signal, the importance of key support levels, and the current bullish momentum in the stock. While the host remains cautiously neutral, he warns of possible bearish signs if the stock falls below certain thresholds. He also touches on options flow and discusses strategies like covered calls for hedging. Overall, the outlook remains positive, but caution is advised moving into the following week.

Takeaways

• 😀 The speaker provides daily updates on Nvidia stock, including technical analysis and market insights.
• 😀 The speaker mentions membership options for deeper stock analysis, with a focus on Tesla and Nvidia stocks.
• 😀 Nvidia stock recently reached the top of its channel, showing a potential point of resistance.
• 😀 A potential bearish signal appeared in the form of an inverted hammer candlestick, though not conclusive yet.
• 😀 A key level to watch for Nvidia's stock is the $163 mark, with potential concerns if the stock closes below that level.
• 😀 If Nvidia falls below $160, it could signal a short-term bearish trend, with a possible bullish reversal forming later.
• 😀 The speaker remains bullish overall on Nvidia, despite concerns about short-term price fluctuations.
• 😀 There is a potential for sideways movement or a slight downward correction if the stock fails to maintain momentum.
• 😀 A bearish divergence is forming on the MACD and SMI, suggesting limited upside potential in the short term.
• 😀 The speaker suggests selling covered calls if holding Nvidia shares, particularly targeting the $170 strike price for two-week options.
• 😀 A large purchase of 2.7 million puts on Nvidia for a September 19th expiry at a $165 strike price indicates expectations for a potential decline in Nvidia stock.

Q & A

What is the main focus of the video?

The video primarily focuses on an update and analysis of Nvidia's stock performance, examining recent price movements, potential future trends, and technical indicators.

What does the speaker mean by a 'hanging man' candle?

A 'hanging man' candle is a candlestick pattern that could indicate a potential reversal or top in the stock's price. However, the speaker mentions that this pattern is statistically not the most reliable signal.

What is the significance of the inverted hammer candlestick pattern mentioned?

The inverted hammer is a candlestick pattern that could indicate a potential reversal in price direction. In this case, it is not seen as a strong bearish signal, as the candle is green, which is less concerning than a red one.

What level does the speaker consider important for Nvidia's stock in terms of support?

The speaker highlights the level around $160 as significant support, especially with the 9 exponential moving average (EMA) sitting at that point. If Nvidia's price falls below this level, it may signal further bearish potential.

How does the speaker view the overall momentum of Nvidia's stock?

The speaker considers the overall momentum still bullish, as the stock remains above key moving averages and indicators such as the MACD and stochastic oscillator are still showing bullish signs.

What does the speaker mean by 'dark clouds on the horizon'?

The phrase 'dark clouds on the horizon' is used metaphorically to suggest that there are potential bearish signs on the horizon, though it's not clear yet if they will materialize into a significant downturn in Nvidia's stock.

What is the speaker's stance on shorting Nvidia's stock?

The speaker explicitly mentions that they are not bearish on Nvidia and would not short the stock, though they express caution and recommend watching the stock's behavior closely for potential signs of a reversal.

What strategy does the speaker suggest for investors holding Nvidia shares?

For those holding Nvidia shares, the speaker suggests considering covered calls, specifically selling 170-strike calls two weeks out, to hedge against potential downside while benefiting from premium collection.

What did the speaker mention about Nvidia's implied volatility?

The speaker notes that Nvidia's implied volatility has been relatively low, likely due to the slow and steady price movement of the stock, and that the VIX index is also low, indicating lower overall market volatility.

What was the significant options flow mentioned in the video?

The speaker highlights a significant options flow of 2.7 million puts for Nvidia with a strike price of $165, expiring on September 19th. This indicates that some market participants are betting on a potential price decline in the stock.