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Summary

The video script discusses the impact of unexpected agricultural non-farm employment data in the U.S. on various markets, including stocks, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies, which experienced declines. It highlights a potential tightening in the service sector and speculates on future market trends influenced by unemployment rates and Federal Reserve policies. The script also covers the significance of upcoming inflation data and Fed meetings, suggesting possible interest rate adjustments. Additionally, it touches on strategies for asset allocation in the context of currency, gold, and stock markets, emphasizing the importance of staying informed and adapting to economic indicators.

Takeaways

• 📉 The U.S. markets experienced a mix of reactions with declines in stocks, gold, silver, and crypto assets, particularly after the release of stronger-than-expected non-farm employment data.
• 📈 The non-farm employment data for the previous month was below expectations, which initially pleased the markets, but the latest data exceeded expectations, causing a stir.
• 📊 There is a shift in the U.S. employment sector with a decrease in full-time jobs and an increase in part-time jobs, indicating potential weakness in the service sector.
• 🇺🇸 The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4%, which is what the Federal Reserve (FED) desires, and if it continues to rise, the FED may continue interest rate cuts.
• 💰 The U.S. is borrowing heavily, and high-interest rates could increase the country's debt levels, which may lead to economic challenges.
• 🔑 Upcoming critical data releases include U.S. inflation figures, with expectations of no change from the previous month, and a FED meeting that may influence market direction.
• 📈 Inflation in the U.S. had peaked mid-2022 at 9.1% and has since declined, showing resistance at the current 3.4% level, which is crucial for the FED's decision on interest rates.
• 💵 The Turkish Lira (TL) has reached its highest value in 2.5 months, indicating potential for further market shocks.
• 🚀 The speaker suggests that keeping assets in physical forms like gold and silver, or in interest-bearing deposits, and considering the stock market and crypto assets, could be wise investment strategies.
• 💼 The speaker highlights specific stocks and sectors, such as banking and holdings, as areas of interest for investment.
• 📊 Technical analysis and support/resistance levels for various assets like gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies are discussed, with suggestions for potential buying opportunities.

Q & A

What was the main impact of the non-farm employment data in the U.S. on the markets?

The non-farm employment data exceeded expectations, causing a stir in the markets, with declines observed in U.S. stocks, gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies, particularly with a sharp correction in crypto assets.

How did the previous month's non-farm employment data affect the markets?

The previous month's data was below expectations, which led to a sense of relief and a degree of recovery in the markets.

What is the current situation in the U.S. service sector regarding employment?

While the service sector in the U.S. is large and advanced, the data shows a decrease in full-time jobs and an increase in part-time jobs, indicating potential contraction in the sector.

What is the expectation for the non-farm employment data in the upcoming months?

The speaker anticipates a decline in the non-farm employment data in the coming months due to the U.S. manufacturing sector nearing the levels of the 1950s, indicating no expansion and resilience only in the service sector.

What was the unemployment rate in the latest report, and how does it compare to expectations?

The unemployment rate was reported at 4%, which exceeded expectations of 3.9%, aligning with the Federal Reserve's desire for an increase in unemployment.

What is the potential implication of the unemployment rate reaching 4% for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions?

If the unemployment rate continues to rise, the Federal Reserve may consider interest rate cuts, which would support the markets but could harm the U.S. economy due to the country's high borrowing.

What is the critical data announcement expected in the upcoming week, and what is its significance?

The inflation data is expected to be announced, with expectations at the same level as the previous month at 3.4%. This data is critical as it influences the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions.

How has the Turkish Lira (TL) been performing recently, and what is the significance of its value?

The TL has reached its peak in the last 2.5 years, with its real value increasing. This increase could potentially signal upcoming shocks in the dollar exchange rate.

What is the current critical support and resistance levels for Bitcoin, and what are the expectations for its price movement?

The critical support level for Bitcoin is at $69,000. If it remains above this level, the next target is $83,000, with resistance levels at $71,200 and $73,700.

What is the speaker's recommendation for asset allocation considering the current market conditions?

The speaker suggests not holding cash and instead diversifying investments in assets like gold, silver, and fixed deposits, and also considering the stock market and crypto assets as potential investment opportunities.

What platform does the speaker recommend for trading crypto assets, and what are its advantages?

The speaker recommends the Quant Free platform due to its lack of transaction commissions and carrying costs, as well as unlimited leverage and no transfer fees.