ANALISA NFP TEKNIKAL XAUUSD 7 FEBRUARI 2025 #analisateknikal #gold #xauusd #trump #forecast #nfp

Summary

In this video, Johan from Juna Trading ID discusses the latest updates on OI data and the upcoming NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) report. He explores the impacts of recent employment data, including job openings and jobless claims, on the market, particularly Gold. Johan shares insights into the current job market, potential market movements, and trading strategies. He also provides updates on OI data and resistance levels, highlighting his analysis of the Gold market's potential movements based on these data points. The video encourages viewers to engage with their own opinions and trading experiences.

Takeaways

• 😀 The video discusses updates on key data, including the Job Openings (JS) and NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) reports, and their impact on the gold market.
• 😀 The NFP report, a critical weekly economic data release, is expected to be released tonight, influencing market sentiment.
• 😀 Job openings in December decreased slightly, from 8,156 to 7,600, indicating a reduction in the availability of new jobs.
• 😀 Despite the decrease in job openings, worker absorption, or the ability to hire, has been relatively strong in January.
• 😀 A slight increase in unemployment claims was reported due to the gap between job openings and worker absorption, showing the challenges in the labor market.
• 😀 The gold market remains in an uptrend, but the presenter is cautious, observing that the USD could see mixed performance depending on the NFP results.
• 😀 For USD, despite some positive data, it is anticipated that it could weaken, with gold possibly benefitting from this dip.
• 😀 The presenter plans to wait for the NFP data release before entering any trades due to potential volatility, preferring a cautious approach.
• 😀 Current resistance levels for gold are around 2,860 to 2,875, with potential targets for further moves towards the 2,890 to 2,900 range.
• 😀 The presenter suggests monitoring Open Interest Data (OID) as a key indicator for trading decisions, especially for swing trades, with resistance and support levels provided.
• 😀 The overall market sentiment is cautious, with the potential for further price movements in both gold and USD, depending on the upcoming NFP results and other labor market indicators.

Q & A

What is the main focus of the video in terms of financial data?

The main focus of the video is on updates related to employment data, particularly the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, job openings (JS), and initial jobless claims (JCL), and how these data points affect the gold and USD markets.

How does the NFP report typically impact the gold market?

The NFP report can influence the gold market, particularly if the data shows weaker-than-expected employment growth. In such cases, the USD tends to weaken, which typically causes the price of gold to rise.

What did the speaker say about the job openings data (JS)?

The speaker mentioned that job openings (JS) have decreased, with December's job openings at 7,600 compared to 8,156 in the previous month. This decline suggests fewer new job opportunities, which could affect the broader employment outlook.

What is the current trend in the gold market according to the speaker?

The speaker indicated that the gold market is currently in an uptrend, with the price being supported by the overall market structure and recent price movements remaining positive.

What is the significance of initial jobless claims (JCL) data in this analysis?

Initial jobless claims (JCL) data is significant because an increase in claims, like the recent rise from 208,000 to 219,000, signals potential weaknesses in the labor market. This could influence broader economic expectations and impact USD strength, which in turn affects gold prices.

How does the speaker assess the job market's absorption capacity?

The speaker notes that while job openings have decreased, the absorption of workers has been optimal, suggesting that the labor market is functioning efficiently despite fewer new job opportunities.

What is the speaker's perspective on trading gold during volatile data periods?

The speaker recommends taking a more cautious approach during volatile data periods, such as waiting for NFP results to be released before making large trading decisions. They also suggest that if the NFP report is weaker than expected, it may present a buying opportunity for gold.

What role does Open Interest (OI) data play in the speaker's analysis?

Open Interest (OI) data helps the speaker identify potential support and resistance levels for gold prices. The speaker uses OI data to predict price movements and set trading targets, including resistance levels at 2,890 and 2,900.

How does the speaker use resistance levels in their trading strategy?

The speaker uses resistance levels as key indicators for entry and exit points. For example, if the gold price breaks through resistance levels like 2,890 and 2,900, it may signal a continuation of the upward trend. Conversely, if the price stays below these levels, the speaker expects further downward movement.

What does the speaker suggest about managing risk in trading?

The speaker emphasizes the importance of risk management by advising that traders carefully measure potential risks before making trades. For example, the speaker uses precise entry points and has a clear strategy for both scalping and swing trades to limit exposure to large losses.