中国青年失业率为什么如此之高？｜失业率｜青年失业率｜经济增速｜统计口径｜就业困局｜王局拍案20230718

Summary

本视频剧本深入分析了中国国家统计局发布的2024年上半年经济数据，指出了数据的稳定性和改善趋势背后可能存在的问题。视频提出了对统计数据可信度的质疑，讨论了统计方法和样本代表性的潜在操纵，以及如何通过不同的统计方法得出完全相反的结论。同时，剧本还探讨了中国青年失业率的高企问题，分析了导致这一现象的多种因素，包括高校毕业生数量的激增、就业期望的变化、关键行业的就业容纳能力下降，以及GDP增长放缓等。此外，还讨论了中国外贸环境的变化，及其对青年就业率的影响，强调了维护稳定的外部贸易环境和和平共处对中国经济未来发展的重要性。

Takeaways

• 📊 根据中国国家统计局7月17日发布的数据，上半年国民经济呈现稳定向好态势，但数据可能存在美化现象。
• 🤔 国家统计局可能存在两套数据，一套面向公众，一套供党和领导人参考，以避免公众面对真实数据。
• 📚 姚景源，国家统计局首席经济学家，曾被媒体戏称为“首席化妆师”，暗示统计数据可能被操纵。
• 📈 上半年GDP增长率达到5.5%，但与2018年相比，GDP增长率已下降约2%至2.5%，显示增长放缓。
• 📉 国家统计局发布的第二季度同比增长6.5%的数据，基于去年同期几乎停滞的经济增长，实际增长低于预期。
• 🎓 截至6月底，青年失业率达到21.3%，为历史最高水平，而整体失业率为5.3%。
• 👥 中国的失业率统计仅包括城市地区，不包括农村地区，导致大量农民工失业未被计入。
• 🕊️ 国家统计局的失业定义标准宽松，一周工作一小时即不算失业，与其他国家的标准相比显得不合理。
• 🏫 中国大学毕业生面临就业难，学校为提高就业率可能强制学生签署第三方协议，导致数据失真。
• 🏢 中国三大就业吸纳行业——互联网、房地产和教育培训行业——在过去三年中遭遇挑战，减少了对大学毕业生的吸纳能力。
• 🌐 中国的经济增长放缓，外部贸易环境恶化，特别是对美国出口减少，对青年失业率产生影响。

Q & A

为什么国家统计局的数据显示“稳中向好”是常见的表述？

国家统计局的数据经常显示“稳中向好”，因为他们发布的数据总是展示出经济的稳定和改善，而不会显示经济的稳定和下降。这种表述是为了安抚公众情绪，展示祖国经济发展的美好前景。

统计数据有可能被操纵的两个方面是什么？

统计数据操纵的两个方面是：一方面，一些数据被美化，向公众展示的并不是真实的统计数据；另一方面，是统计方法和样本代表性的修改，这需要很高的专业水平。

为什么要阅读《如何用统计说谎》这本书？

阅读《如何用统计说谎》这本书可以帮助理解同一组统计数据通过不同统计方法得出的结论会完全相反，从而揭示统计数据背后的秘密，帮助更好地分析和理解实际情况。

为什么说中国的GDP增长数据有“稳中有降”的问题？

虽然数据显示经济稳定和改善，但从2018年到现在，中国的GDP增长率从7%-8%下降到5%-6%，这明显是“稳中有降”。然而，统计局并没有提供纵向的统计数据，也不允许进行纵向比较，因此公众不会看到稳定性下降的数据。

中国的失业率是如何计算的？

每年国家统计局在全国范围内选择24万个样本，包括25万个城镇家庭和9万个农村家庭，分析不同年龄组的就业率，从而得出失业率和青年失业率的数据。

为什么中国的失业率被认为严重低估和扭曲？

首先，中国的失业率只计算城镇地区，不包括农村地区；其次，中国的失业标准非常低，只要每周工作一小时就不算失业，这与其他国家的标准差距很大；最后，政府还需要认可失业者的工作意愿，而这往往导致许多人不被算作失业。

中国的青年失业率为何如此之高？

中国的青年失业率高达21.3%，是统计以来的最高值。原因包括高校毕业生数量过多，结构性差距大，许多毕业生不愿意从事蓝领工作，三大主要行业（互联网、房地产和教育培训）就业能力下降，以及GDP增长放缓导致就业机会减少。

为什么互联网行业的就业情况发生了变化？

互联网行业的市场预期和增长动力发生了变化，公司优先考虑自保，停止招聘新毕业生，甚至解雇老员工。此外，行业增长放缓导致这些公司吸纳新毕业生的能力下降。

中国房地产市场的问题是什么？

中国房地产市场在过去两三年中房价下降，居民储蓄意愿增加，购房意愿下降。这导致房地产行业吸纳新毕业生的能力下降。

中国教育培训行业遇到了什么问题？

教育培训行业在近年来经历了大量调整和整改，导致大量从业人员失业，据统计超过240万人失业，影响了这个行业吸纳新毕业生的能力。

Outlines

00:00

📊 国家统计局数据发布与解读

7月17日，中国国家统计局发布了今年上半年的经济数据，宣称各行各业情况稳定且向好。然而，视频中提到了对国家统计局数据真实性的质疑，包括是否有两套数据、数据美化以及统计方法和样本代表性的修改。提到了《如何用统计数据撒谎》一书，强调了即使数据相同，不同的统计方法可能导致截然相反的结论。此外，视频中还对比了过去五年中国GDP增长率的下降趋势，以及第二季度GDP增长的基数效应，暗示了官方数据可能通过改变统计方法来创造稳定向好的假象。

05:03

🎓 青年失业率的统计与现实

视频中讨论了中国青年失业率的统计方法，指出当前21.3%的青年失业率是自统计数据收集以来的最高值。同时，视频中提出了对中国失业统计数据的质疑，包括只计算城市地区而忽略农村地区，以及对失业定义的宽松标准，例如每周工作一小时即不算失业。此外，还提到了大学毕业生就业率的虚报问题，以及大学和地方政府如何通过数据操纵来满足就业率目标，导致实际青年失业率远高于官方统计。

10:04

🏢 大学毕业生就业难的原因分析

视频探讨了中国大学毕业生就业难的多个原因，包括毕业生数量的过剩、市场对白领职位的有限需求、毕业生对工作的期望提高以及家庭对子女就业的支持态度。提到了今年毕业生数量达到1150万，而退休人数只有755万，存在400万的就业缺口。此外，还讨论了互联网、房地产和教育培训行业面临的挑战，这些行业是吸纳青年就业的主要领域，但由于市场和政策的变化，这些行业的就业吸纳能力正在下降。

15:09

📉 GDP增长放缓与就业市场的挑战

视频中提到，中国GDP增长率在过去五年下降了约2%至2.5%，导致每年约有250万个工作岗位的减少。与此同时，大学毕业生的数量却在增加，这导致了就业市场的供需失衡。视频中还提到了中国出口数据的下降，尤其是对美国出口的减少，以及出口下降对GDP的负面影响。此外，还讨论了中国外交关系的变化，以及这如何影响中国的外贸和就业市场。

20:13

🌐 对外贸易与外交关系对经济的影响

视频最后强调了对外贸易环境和外交关系的稳定性对中国经济发展的重要性。提到了中国不再是美国最大的商品进口国，以及对主要发达经济体的出口普遍下降，除了俄罗斯。视频中提出了中国在外交领域可能存在的问题，以及这如何导致国际社会减少对中国产品的依赖。最后，视频呼吁中国需要维护稳定的外部贸易环境和与世界的和平共处，以促进未来的经济增长。

Keywords

💡国家统计局

国家统计局是中国负责收集、分析和发布国家经济和社会数据的官方机构。在视频中，提到国家统计局发布了上半年的经济数据，显示各行各业都呈现出稳定和改善的趋势。然而，视频中也提出了对国家统计局数据真实性的质疑，暗示数据可能存在美化现象。

💡经济数据操纵

经济数据操纵是指通过改变统计方法或样本代表性等方式，有意或无意地影响统计结果的行为。视频中提到，中国的统计数据可能存在一定程度的操纵，这包括数据美化和统计方法的调整，从而影响公众对经济状况的理解。

💡GDP增长率

GDP增长率是衡量一个国家经济规模增长速度的指标。视频中指出，中国上半年的GDP增长率达到了5.5%，看似稳定和改善，但实际上与过去几年相比，GDP增长率已经从7%-8%下降到了5%-6%，显示出经济增长放缓的趋势。

💡青年失业率

青年失业率是指一定时期内，青年群体中未就业人口所占的比例。视频中提到，中国的青年失业率已经达到了21.3%，创历史新高。这个数据反映了中国青年就业市场的严峻形势。

💡统计方法

统计方法是收集、分析、解释和呈现数据的科学方法。视频中提到，统计方法的改变可能会影响数据的呈现，例如通过不同的统计方法，相同的数据可能会得出完全相反的结论。

💡就业率

就业率是指在劳动年龄人口中，有工作的人所占的比例。视频中提到，中国统计就业率时，只考虑城市地区，不包括农村地区，这导致了对失业情况的低估。

💡高等教育

高等教育通常指大学本科及其以上的教育阶段。视频中指出，随着中国高等教育的扩张，越来越多的大学毕业生进入就业市场，但由于市场无法提供足够的白领工作，导致了就业难的问题。

💡结构性失业

结构性失业是指劳动力市场的供需不匹配导致的失业现象。视频中提到，中国的大学毕业生倾向于寻求白领工作，而市场上这类工作的数量有限，从而产生了结构性失业问题。

💡互联网行业

互联网行业是指涉及互联网技术及其应用的产业，包括电子商务、社交媒体、在线游戏等。视频中提到，中国的互联网行业近年来遭受重创，公司裁员和停止招聘新毕业生，影响了大学生的就业。

💡房地产市场

房地产市场是指涉及房产买卖和租赁的市场。视频中提到，中国的房地产市场近年来出现下滑，导致该行业的就业吸纳能力下降，影响了大学毕业生的就业机会。

💡教育和培训行业

教育和培训行业是指提供各类教育和职业培训服务的行业。视频中提到，中国的教育和培训行业近年来面临调整，导致大量从业人员失业，减少了对大学毕业生的就业机会。

💡外交关系

外交关系是指国家之间在政治、经济、文化等方面的相互关系。视频中提到，中国的外交关系可能影响外部贸易环境，进而影响中国的经济发展和就业情况。

Highlights

中国国家统计局在7月17日发布了今年上半年的经济数据，称各个行业和方面都呈现出稳定和改善的态势。

提到“稳定和改善”可能是国家统计局特有的表述，因为其发布的数据总是显示稳定和改善，从未显示稳定和下降。

几年前采访了国家统计局首席经济学家姚景源，他当时经常接受媒体采访并在CCTV露面。

提出了是否有两套数据的问题，一套给公众看，

Transcripts

Yesterday, which was July 17th,

The National Bureau of Statistics of China

released the data on the economic performance in the first half of this year.

In every industry and aspect, the situation is stable and improving

I believe that "stable and improving" can be considered

a specific term used by the National Bureau of Statistics of China

because all the data they release

always shows stability and improvement.

never shows stability and declining

Several years ago, I interviewed Yao Jingyuan,

the Chief Economist of the National Bureau of Statistics,

At that time, Yao Jingyuan was enthusiastic about media interviews

and frequently appeared on CCTV.

We asked him two questions.

The first question was whether they have two sets of statistics.

One set for the general public to see,

and another set for the Party and national leaders to see.

because we need to consider that

the general public has limited ability to comprehend the real information

and cannot withstand the test of real data.

So, we suspected that they deliberately provided two sets of data for us.

Regarding the second question,

we didn't ask the following questions, only the first one.

Secondly, someone referred to you as the "Chief Makeup Artist."

Regardless of whether you are called the "Chief Economist," what is your opinion?

At that time, he laughed at us during the program and didn't want to answer.

But his laughter was actually an answer in itself,

indicating that China's statistical data indeed have some room for manipulation.

This manipulation has two aspects:

Firstly, some data is indeed embellished.

What is presented to the public is not the true statistical data.

That's the first aspect.

Secondly, there are modifications of statistical methodology and sample representation.

This involves a great deal of expertise.

I previously recommended a book to everyone called "How to Lie with Statistics"

With the same set of statistical data,

conclusions drawn through different statistical methods

can be completely opposite if you haven't studied it.

So, if you are interested,

in unraveling the secrets behind these statistical data,

I recommend taking a look at this book.

Let's take the data released in the first half of this year as an example.

For instance, the GDP growth in the first half of the year reached 5.5%.

This data looks impressive, indicating stability and improvement.

But if you compare it longitudinally,

from 2018 until now, in just a short span of five years,

China's GDP growth rate has declined from 7%-8%

to 5%-6%.

In other words, it has dropped by around 2% to 2.5%.

This is clearly a case of "stability with a decline,"

so how can it be considered "stable and improving"?

they don't provide you with longitudinal statistics,

they don't allow you to make longitudinal comparisons.

So, you will never see that data showing a decline in stability.

Secondly, let's take the data for the second quarter of this year.

Compared to the same period last year,

it shows a year-on-year growth of 6.5%.

At first glance, this data seems quite favorable.

But let me tell you,

the GDP growth in the second quarter of last year was only 0.4%.

Because, what was happening during the second quarter of last year?

Cities across the country were under lockdown,

transportation was restricted, and PCR testing was being conducted.

Who had the capacity for production and construction during that time?

The economic growth in the second quarter of last year was almost stagnant.

So, the current 6.5% growth is based on a nearly stagnant baseline.

with a growth of 6.5%.

So, while it may appear to be a high figure at 6.5%, is actually quite low.

It falls below the general expectations of international investment banks

regarding China's economic growth.

But you can see that the National Bureau of Statistics

only publishes year-on-year data,

and it doesn't inform you about the expectations of international investment banks.

China is clearly falling below the expected values.

This is achieved through changes in statistical methodology,

deliberately creating an impression of stability and improvement.

Because the National Bureau of Statistics of China has such a role,

it is not only responsible for releasing genuine data,

but also for soothing the emotions of the general public,

and presenting the great economic development of our motherland,

painting a bright future.

That's why we refer to it as the "Chief Makeup Artist," not the "Chief Economist."

In theory, economic data should be objective, shouldn't it?

In theory, this data should truly reflect the state of the economy.

But in China, it doesn't.

To a large extent, it serves a propaganda function.

This raises a question:

The data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China requires further analysis

for you to carefully understand the actual state of China's economic performance.

If you don't subject this data to further analysis,

you will often find yourself in a state of confusion.

Today, I would like to discuss data released by the National Bureau of Statistics.

a topic that has garnered significant attention based on the data

That topic is youth unemployment rate.

According to the latest data, the youth unemployment rate,

as of the end of June this year, has reached 21.3%.

This is the highest value since the collection of statistical data began.

When compared to the overall unemployment rate

of 5.3% for the entire population,

this figure is not too bad

So, why is the youth unemployment rate so high?

This is the question I want to analyze today.

"Sometimes I wonder what the significance of going to university is."

"I have applied and interviewed with nearly 50 companies since graduation."

"Some companies offer unpaid internships, but they don't offer you employment contract."

"It's as if going to university"

"was only to find a decent and higher-paying job, making me feel accomplished."

"But the reality is so far from that, to the point where I feel depressed."

First, let's talk about how China's unemployment rate,

specifically the youth unemployment rate, is calculated.

Every year, the National Bureau of Statistics selects 240,000 samples nationwide,

consisting of 250,000 urban households and 90,000 rural households.

They then analyze the employment rates

of different age groups within these households,

which provides the unemployment rate and the specific data for youth unemployment.

I can explain to you that the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics

is clearly underestimated,

and one could even say it is significantly distorted.

Why is that?

Firstly, China's unemployment rate only accounts for urban areas

and does not include rural areas.

There is a large number of migrant workers from rural areas

who engage in industrial production in cities.

They are an integral part of China's industrial production line.

But in China's unemployment rate calculation, they are always treated as zero.

They are neither included in the denominator nor the numerator.

So rural farmers in China are actually in a very disadvantaged position.

If they are out of work, they are expected to return to rural areas.

According to China's statistical reporting,

every farmer have land in their households.

is considered employed when returning home

But this reasoning is highly questionable.

Why? Because in China, the majority of farmers

consider their primary work or work preference to be in urban areas,

not in their own agricultural production.

As long as they can find jobs in cities,

most of them are willing to work on production lines.

So in theory, if they have the willingness to work but cannot find employment,

they should be included in the unemployment rate calculation.

China's statistical reporting first excludes all farmers from consideration.

This issue, in essence, is a statistical distortion, and that is the first point.

The second point is about the definition of unemployment.

China has a rather ridiculous criterion.

It states that if you work for just one hour in a week,

it does not count as unemployment.

For example, if you deliver food for one hour

or conduct a small business on a platform like Goofish,

it is not considered unemployment.

But think about it, working only one hour a week,

what does that imply? Can it be considered employment?

let's compare this with the statistical criteria used in other countries worldwide.

In the United States, working 15 hours per week is considered employment.

In France, it is 20 hours per week.

Why does the U.S. set the threshold at 15 hours?

How this standard is made is actually quite simple.

It is based on the federal minimum wage in the U.S.

which is approximately $7.28 per hour.

Multiplying this hourly wage by 15 hours,

if you work 15 hours per week,

you would earn around $108 to $110.

This amount is sufficient to cover basic living expenses, including food.

it is considered the minimum threshold for basic employment.

It means that the money you earn is enough to feed yourself,

though it may not cover other expenses.

This standard is not particularly high,

but how does China determine its employment standard?

It is based on working just one hour per week.

let's calculate it.

Can you support yourself by working only one hour per week?

Can you even afford to have a proper meal?

Clearly, it is not enough.

what should be the standard for calculating

employment and unemployment rates?

When we say someone is employed,

it should refer to their engagement in work

that can at least sustain their own livelihood

It should ensure that they will not starve to death.

If you work only one hour per week,

you would still starve to death.

So you can see that this statistical criterion itself is extremely ridiculous.

The third aspect is about

the definition of unemployment and another criterion,

which is having the so-called willingness to work.

The government also needs to recognize your willingness to work,

and if you are without a job, then it is considered unemployment.

Let me share a very ridiculous example.

When I returned to the country two years ago,

I thought I was unemployed

because there was a policy during the pandemic that stated

if you were unemployed, you could receive unemployment benefits.

So, I registered on the Beijing Social Security app

and stated, "I am unemployed. I haven't had a job for two years."

"Can I receive some unemployment benefits?"

After submitting the application, the response I received was,

"You are not unemployed."

"You do not meet the criteria for unemployment."

I was not considered unemployed,

and I couldn't receive any unemployment benefits.

I want to tell you that

China's unemployment insurance is the most laughable.

Why?

Each of us, when employed,

1.5% has to contribute 0.5% of our monthly income to unemployment insurance,

while the employer contributes 1.5%.

This percentage is not low,

but if you take a look,

the payment ratio of China's unemployment insurance is extremely low.

It grows year after year like a snowball.

What does this indicate?

It indicates that China's recognition of unemployment is very, very low.

It is almost impossible to qualify for unemployment insurance

by being recognized as unemployed.

The strictness of the recognition criteria

has resulted in extremely low unemployment figures.

China's unemployment rate has long been severely distorted.

In the case of university students,

there are additional factors contributing to this distortion.

For example, when Chinese university students are about to graduate,

almost all schools require them to sign agreements with third parties

before issuing their diplomas.

What does this result in?

Massive data falsification.

If you look at all the schools,

you will find many complaints from students online

about notices from counselors or departments requiring them

to sign agreements with third parties.

If they don't sign, they won't receive their diplomas.

What is the purpose of this falsification?

On one hand,

it presents a favorable image for these prestigious universities,

and on the other hand, it fulfills the employment rate targets

set by local labor departments for these universities.

If they fail to meet the required employment rate,

the university may face penalties,

Such as the closure of certain departments.

so universities and local government departments work together to manipulate data,

leading to the actual unemployment rate among Chinese university students

being much higher than the reported statistics.

even with these distortions,

the current youth unemployment rate has already reached 21.3%.

A few days ago, the Institute of Finance at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

released a statistical report on China's economic performance this year.

it specifically discussed the unemployment rate among Chinese university students.

According to their statistics,

among the youth unemployment rate,

two out of three individuals have received higher education,

with 42% having completed undergraduate education.

That means, currently, the higher the education level,

the more difficult it is to find employment in China.

This is reality in China.

"In the past few days, various streets in Chengdu Hi-tech Zone were recruiting people,"

"so I went to register yesterday."

"The scene inside the conference hall was overwhelming."

"It was packed with people. In our row,"

”there were six of us:"

"1 from a (Project 985) university , 1 from a (Project 211) university ,

"and the other 4 from regular undergraduate programs.

"The monthly salary we would receive was only 2,500 RMB"

"The staff there even mentioned that t"

"they don't want as many people to register next time."

"They want to raise the bar to require postgraduate degrees"

"so that there will be fewer applicants."

"I find it really scary."

"The job is just a entry-level clerk in community"

"and the monthly salary for an employee is only 2,500 RMB."

So why is it that the higher the education level,

the more difficult the employment situation becomes?

especially for university graduates who are experiencing

"graduation and immediate unemployment"?

What are the reasons behind this?

I believe the first aspect of the problem is

clearly the overwhelming number of university graduates.

This year, the number of graduates is 11.5 million,

and they will enter the job market in China in July.

But last year, the number of retirees was only 7.55 million,

with only about 14% of them being white-collar workers.

The majority came from the manufacturing and service sectors.

you can see that

the number of available positions is limited, with only 7.55 million retirees.

But there are 11.5 million new university graduates seeking employment,

creating a gap of 4 million.

The biggest issue is that

after receiving higher education,

graduates naturally aspire to work in white-collar jobs.

They do not want to become delivery drivers

or engage in manual labor.

This creates a significant structural disparity.

These university graduates desire positions

that the market cannot provide in sufficient numbers,

resulting in a significant structural gap.

This situation is a consequence of the expansion of higher education institutions in China.

"If only I hadn't gone to university."

"If I hadn't gone to university,"

"I could have been a waiter without any worries."

"But since I went to university, I can't lower my standards."

“I could have found a job without educational requirements."

“I wouldn't have to face this dilemma.”

"I really want to be a manicurist"

"But I've already completed my master's degree,"

"and my family would never accept it."

To speak frankly,

Does China really needs such a large number of university graduates?

This is a question mark

In the past years, due to the expansion of higher education institutions,

it did help stimulate domestic demand.

As a result, a large number of graduates went to universities.

but entering universities

has raised their employment expectations

Previously, they might have been willing to take on blue-collar jobs,

but now, after receiving higher education,

they aspire to white-collar jobs.

there simply aren't enough white-collar positions available.

Consequently, these individuals become job seekers in the employment market.

Of course, there may be a unique situation in China.

Chinese families attach great importance to the first job of young people.

Most families are willing to support these students

and wait for a better job for two or three years.

They are not in a hurry to see these students employed immediately.

If they cannot find a good job,

families encourage them to pursue further studies

or take civil service examinations.

but pursuing further studies or taking civil service examinations

will lead to delayed employment.

According to current statistics,

approximately 5 million people are engaged

in postgraduate studies or preparing for civil service examinations each year.

This is a substantial number.

On the other hand

even if one fails to enter postgraduate studies or become a civil servant,

many families will financially support their children

in searching for jobs for two or three years.

This is an extremely unique situation in China.

"Consider the offer from Shaolin Temple."

"Once you are officially employed by Shaolin Temple,”

"you will receive benefits such as five insurances and one housing fund."

"The basic salary for the first year is at least 80,000 RMB"

"And there is also incense commission."

"Some students eyes lit up at the news."

"Teacher, I'll go to Shaolin Temple tonight."

"Don't be impulsive."

"Shaolin Temple now has very high requirements for recruitment."

"They require at least a bachelor's degree."

"In parentheses, they prefer postgraduates."

"This afternoon, I saw that my hometown's Qingcheng Mountain"

"is recruiting Taoist priests."

"But as soon as I went in and saw the requirements,"

"They don't accept anyone above 35 years old."

"This is my graduation thesis."

"And this is my master's degree certificate."

The third aspect is that

several key industries that can accommodate employment

have encountered problems.

Statistics show that there are 3 industries in China

that accommodate the largest number of employed individuals:

internet ,real estate industry, and education and training industry

These three sectors together

account for 56% of youth employment in China.

that is more than half of employment rate

if we take a closer look at these three industries,

they have all experienced significant challenges and turbulence over the past 3 years.

First, let's talk about the internet industry,

which has undergone significant damage in recent years.

Companies like Alibaba and Tencent have faced hefty fines,

and there has been a crackdown on gaming licenses.

The entire market is undergoing reshuffling,

resulting in two main issues for these companies.

Firstly, market expectations have changed.

they used to that the market would consistently experience high growth.

and to a fast growing company

they are willing to accept graduate students

when expectations shift, companies tend to prioritize self-preservation.

their typical approach involves

stoping the recruitment of new graduates

and, if necessary, laying off older employees.

This change in expectations has affected these industries.

This change in expectations has affected these industries.

Secondly, the growth dynamics of the industry have indeed changed.

If you compare the financial reports of Alibaba and Tencent with previous years,

the difference is striking.

Alibaba's stock price has fallen back to its initial listing level.

As a result, these industries have reduced their capacity

to accommodate new university graduates.

Moving on to the real estate market, i

it has always been a crucial sector for China's economic growth

and has been a significant source of employment.

But we examine the past two to three years,

we can see that China's housing prices have been declining.

I recently came across data indicating a

noticeable decrease in the savings-to-debt ratio among Chinese households

over the past three years.

Why

This suggests a decline in people's willingness to buy homes

and a preference for saving instead.

When the desire to purchase homes decreases and the inclination to save increases,

it leads to a decline in housing prices.

We have all witnessed the recent trend of

offering down payments as incentives for home purchases,

where you only need to pay the loan installments.

This is essentially a word game,

where developers make it appear as if the housing prices have decreased by 20%

and offer a game-like experience to entice buyers.

Consequently, the real estate industry's capacity

to absorb new university graduates has also decreased.

The third, let's discuss the education and training industry.

It is a labor-intensive sector

that has undergone continuous adjustments

and rectification measures in recent years.

As a result, left a significant increase in unemployed rate within this industry,

estimated to be over 2.4 million according to statistics.

"As an English teacher"

"who still works in the training industry,"

"specifically teaching exams for studying abroad,"

"Hahaha"

"it's hard to find a more desperate profession than mine right now. "

On one hand, with so many people unemployed,

on the other hand, industries that used to accommodate university graduates

result in same situation

decreasing the capacity to accommodate university graduates

This is one aspect

The fourth aspect is the deceleration of GDP growth,

which has led to a severe employment situation.

As we mentioned earlier,

China's GDP has decreased by approximately 2% to 2.5% over the past 5 years.

Statistics show that for every 1% decrease in GDP,

about 1 million jobs are lost.

With a 2.5% decrease,

it means a reduction of approximately 2.5 million jobs each year.

Meanwhile, the number of university graduates is increasing,

but the capacity to employ them is decreasing.

This imbalance between the increase in graduates and the decreasing employment capacity

has made the job market extremely challenging.

"Basically, you can achieve a 100% employment rate,"

"but the salaries are not as high as rumored."

"The admission scores have exceeded"

"the undergraduate admission scores for three consecutive years."

"The number of students applying for this major"

"has dramatically increased since 2020."

According to a research report from the Institute

of Finance of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,

GDP decline has contributed to

over 30% of the unemployment rate among university graduates.

there is a significant indicator we can take a look

The unemployment rate over the past three year

has not followed a stable trend.

It experienced a rapid decline at the beginning of the pandemic,

followed by an increase.

Towards the end of 2020, there was a temporary improvement,

but then it started increasing again.

This rising unemployment rate can be

compared to recent data released

by the United States,

particularly China's export of goods to the US.

The important indicator is that

China is no longer

the largest importer of goods from the US,

which is the first time this has happened in several decades.

Additionally, if we examine

China's export data to major developed economies,

we can see a decline in all export figures except for Russia.

Russia has become China's favorite partner,

There is nothing we can do

but exports to Japan, Europe, and the US are decreasing.

Labor-intensive industries are also seeing a decline in their product exports.

This indicates a worsening trade environment for China.

It has been calculated that

the decline in export data contributes to

approximately 20% of the overall decline in China's GDP.

At this point, we need to address

whether this change in export patterns

is due to a lack of economic competitiveness

or changes in our diplomatic and political environment.

If it is the former,

we need to work on improving the competitiveness of Chinese products.

But if it is the latter, it means we are engaging in futile efforts.

In my view,

the most crucial reason for the transformation in China's foreign trade and exports

that China has been making enemies in the diplomatic arena.

led the international community to diversify its risks though complete decoupling

is not feasible when it comes to engaging with China,

As a risk mitigation measure,

reducing the proportion of Chinese product exports has become a reality.

The most evident example is the United States.

This has resulted in a deceleration in China's economic development

and ultimately affected the unemployment rate among Chinese youth.

Fundamentally, to be frank

China's economy heavily relies on domestic demand and its own consumption,

but it cannot be sustained without a stable external trade environment.

Maintaining a stable external trade environment

and peaceful coexistence with the rest of the world for mutual economic development

is a crucial prerequisite for China's future economic growth.

If this cannot be achieved,

more difficult times lie ahead.

Well, that's all for today. Thank you, everyone."

"I have applied and interviewed with nearly 50 companies since graduation."

"Some companies offer unpaid internships, but they don't offer you employment contract."

"But the reality is so far from that, to the point where I feel depressed."

"As an English teacher, who still works in the training industry,"

"It's hard to find a more desperate profession than mine right now."

"Hahaha"

"If you have a job, cherish it and don't easily switch jobs."

"It can easily leave you without even a meal to eat. It's really scary."

Indeed, the proves that it is difficult for the Chinese economy to be driven solely by domestic demand. If it cannot integrate into the global market, the Chinese economy will undoubtedly face significant challenges. Harmonious diplomatic relations are a prerequisite for the smooth development of foreign economic relations. If China fails to maintain its relations with major maritime and chemical nations, its economy will only deteriorate further.

English Subtitles:1866