The Secret List of (soon to be) Extinct Jobs ———sincerely, AI
Summary
TLDRThe video script discusses the significant impact of AI on the job market, referencing a study on AI automation's effects on various jobs. It highlights that while AI could replace millions of jobs, particularly in higher-wage sectors, it also brings opportunities for new roles and industries. Historical examples of general purpose technologies like the printing press, steam engine, and internet illustrate how disruptive innovations have historically led to societal and labor force advancements. The script emphasizes the importance of embracing change, learning, and adapting to harness AI's power for positive outcomes, suggesting that technology itself is neutral and its use depends on human choices.
Takeaways
- 🧠 The biggest risk of AI is the disruption to jobs, with AI potentially replacing millions of jobs.
- 📚 A paper from the University of Pennsylvania and OpenAI analyzes the impact of AI automation on different jobs, focusing on large language models' effect on the US Labor Force.
- 📉 Higher-wage jobs are more exposed to AI automation in the current wave compared to previous automation waves that impacted lower-wage jobs more.
- 👥 Jobs and tasks are assessed by human raters and AI like GPT-4 to determine the level of AI impact.
- 👨🏫 Historically, general purpose technologies (GPTs) have caused widespread usage, continuous improvement, complimentary innovations, and massive labor force disruption.
- 🚂 Examples of past GPTs include the printing press, steam engine, electricity, and the internet, each causing significant changes and job displacements.
- 📈 Despite job losses, GPTs have improved the quality of life and created new job opportunities, such as railway workers, electrical engineers, and software engineers.
- 🔍 The research predicts that jobs like interpreters, translators, survey researchers, poets, and public relations specialists will be highly impacted by AI.
- 💡 Jobs requiring science and critical thinking skills are less likely to be impacted by AI, while programming and writing skills show a higher susceptibility to AI impact.
- 🚀 New opportunities in AI are emerging, such as prompt engineering and AI development, empowering individuals to innovate across various industries.
- 🌐 Technology itself is neutral; it's up to us to decide how it's used and to create opportunities for positive impact.
Q & A
Who is Andrew and what is his significance in the context of AI?
-Andrew is a globally recognized leader in AI, the founder of deeplearning.ai, CEO of Landing AI, General Partner at AI Fund, Chairman and Co-founder of Coursera, and an Adjunct Professor at Stanford University's Computer Science Department. His significance lies in his extensive knowledge and contributions to the field of AI.
What is the potential impact of AI on jobs according to the transcript?
-The transcript suggests that AI could have a significant impact on jobs, with the potential to replace millions of jobs, including 4.8 million American jobs, as per a tool mentioned in the video.
What does the paper from the University of Pennsylvania in collaboration with Open AI aim to analyze?
-The paper aims to analyze the impact of AI automation, specifically large language models, on the US Labor Force. It seeks to understand how different jobs are affected by AI and the level of exposure to automation.
How does the current wave of AI automation differ from previous automation in terms of job exposure?
-Unlike the previous wave of automation that mostly affected lower-wage jobs, the current wave of AI automation seems to impact higher-wage jobs more, as these jobs have tasks that are more exposed to AI automation.
What is the role of human raters and GPT-4 in assessing the level of AI impact on jobs?
-Human raters and GPT-4 are used to assess the level of automation impact on jobs by evaluating the tasks associated with each job and determining how much AI can influence or replace those tasks.
Can you provide an example of how the paper analyzes the impact of AI on a specific job?
-The paper takes the example of acute care nurses, whose work activities include operating medical instruments and preparing medical supplies. These tasks are then evaluated by human raters and GPT-4 to determine the extent of AI's potential impact.
What are general purpose technologies (GPTs) and how do they affect society and the labor force?
-General purpose technologies (GPTs) are groundbreaking technologies characterized by widespread usage, continuous improvement, generation of complementary innovations, and massive disruption to both the labor force and society as a whole. Examples include the printing press, steam engine, electricity, and the internet.
How did the invention of the printing press impact the labor force?
-The invention of the printing press led to a significant increase in the availability of written text, which in turn led to the Renaissance, the Reformation, and numerous revolutions. However, it also caused displacement in the labor force, as there was less need for scribes, manuscript copiers, and those involved in decorating books and producing parchment and vellum.
What are some of the jobs that are predicted to be most highly impacted by AI according to the research?
-The research predicts that jobs such as interpreters and translators, survey researchers, poets, lyricists, creative writers, animal scientists, and public relations specialists will be most highly impacted by AI, with exposure levels ranging from 66.7% to 76%.
How does the importance of science and critical thinking skills relate to the exposure to AI automation?
-The importance of science and critical thinking skills are strongly negatively associated with exposure to AI automation, meaning that occupations requiring these skills are less likely to be impacted by current large language models.
What opportunities does AI present for new job creation and industry improvement?
-AI presents opportunities for new job creation and industry improvement by enabling the development of technologies on top of AI, empowering people to innovate and improve across various industries, including small businesses like pizza shops, which can benefit from AI-powered tools to save costs and improve operations.
What is Andrew's advice for those who want to be part of the AI revolution?
-Andrew advises people to embrace change, learn, adapt, and harness the power of AI technology. He encourages individuals to be proactive, learn how to use AI to improve industries, and influence policy makers on how these technologies should be used.
Outlines
🧑💼 Impact of AI on Jobs and Historical Technological Disruptions
The paragraph introduces the significant risk of AI as job disruption, referencing Andrew Ng, a renowned expert in the field. It discusses a study from the University of Pennsylvania and OpenAI that analyzes AI's impact on various jobs, particularly focusing on large language models' effects on the US labor force. The study uses human assessors and AI to evaluate the level of automation potential for different tasks. The paragraph also takes a historical perspective, comparing AI to past general-purpose technologies like the printing press and steam engine, which brought about significant changes and labor disruptions but also led to societal advancements and new job creation.
🔧 Disruptions Caused by General Purpose Technologies and AI's Future Impact
This paragraph delves into the historical labor market disruptions caused by inventions like the printing press, steam engine, and electricity, leading to the creation of new jobs and industries. It highlights how each technological advancement improved the quality of life but also displaced certain jobs. The discussion then shifts to AI's current impact, predicting that jobs like interpreters, translators, survey researchers, poets, and public relations specialists will be highly affected. The paragraph also notes that occupations requiring science and critical thinking skills are less likely to be impacted, while programming and writing are more susceptible. It emphasizes the potential for AI to enable new job opportunities and industries, just as past technologies have done.
🚀 Opportunities in AI and the Role of Policy and Adaptation
The final paragraph emphasizes the potential for AI to create new opportunities and industries, encouraging viewers to consider how they can provide value and be part of the conversation around AI's use. It mentions Andrew Ng's talk about opportunities in AI and the development of technologies built on top of AI, which are now accessible to a wider range of industries. The paragraph also touches on the importance of being proactive in learning and adapting to AI, as well as influencing policy to ensure responsible use of technology. The call to action is for individuals to harness AI's power and contribute positively to society.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡AI (Artificial Intelligence)
💡Disruption to Jobs
💡General Purpose Technologies (GPTs)
💡Large Language Models
💡Automation
💡Innovation
💡Job Exposure
💡Critical Thinking Skills
💡Programming and Writing
💡Opportunities in AI
💡Embracing Change
Highlights
The biggest risk of AI is the disruption to jobs, with AI predicted to replace 4.8 million American jobs.
Andrew Ng, a globally recognized leader in AI, discusses the impact of AI on the labor force.
A paper from the University of Pennsylvania in collaboration with OpenAI analyzes the impact of AI automation on different jobs.
Higher-wage jobs are more exposed to AI automation in the current wave compared to the previous wave of automation.
Jobs and tasks are assessed by human raters and AI like GPT-4 to determine the level of potential automation.
The historical context of general purpose technologies shows a pattern of widespread usage, continuous improvement, and massive disruption.
The invention of the printing press revolutionized access to written text and led to significant societal changes.
The steam engine and subsequent innovations led to the Industrial Revolution and major shifts in labor demands.
The advent of electricity and the internet has similarly transformed society and created new job categories.
AI is expected to highly impact jobs such as interpreters, translators, survey researchers, poets, and public relations specialists.
Science and critical thinking skills are negatively associated with exposure to AI, suggesting less impact on related occupations.
Programming and writing skills show a strong positive association with exposure, indicating higher susceptibility to AI impact.
AI technologies will not only impact jobs directly but also through secondary technologies built on top of AI.
Despite job losses, AI will bring improvements in quality of life and create new opportunities for employment.
Andrew Ng emphasizes the importance of embracing AI and creating opportunities in industries of all sizes.
AI technologies were historically expensive and complex, but are now accessible for development across various industries.
Andrew Ng's talk, 'Opportunities in AI,' discusses the development of technologies on top of AI and their potential.
Landing AI, co-founded by Andrew Ng, is an example of building on AI technology to improve industries.
Mitsu, a Japanese conglomerate, approached Andrew Ng to use AI for making ships more fuel-efficient, showcasing proactive use of AI.
The video concludes with a call to action for individuals to learn, adapt, and harness the power of AI for societal benefit.
Transcripts
when I think of the biggest risk of AI I
think that the biggest risk is the
disruption to jobs in case you don't
know who that is and juning is the
globally recognized leader in AI the
founder of deeplearning.ai founder and
CEO of Landing AI General partner at AI
fund chairman and co-founder of corsera
and an adun professor at Stanford
University's computer science department
basically this guy knows his AI stuff
yes there will be lots of impact on jobs
as Andrew alluded to jobs that are
transformed jobs that are lost
artificial intelligence could replace
Millions the tool says AI will replace
4.8 million American jobs but by the end
of this video you will feel
inspired this is a paper from the
University of Pennsylvania in
collaboration with some people at open
Ai and it analyzes the impact of AI
automation on different jobs the
specific goal of this paper is to look
at the impacts of artificial
intelligence specifically large language
models on the US Labor Force whereas the
previous wave of automation the most
exposed jobs were often the lower wage
jobs you know we put robots into
factories with this current wave of
automation is actually the higherway
shops further to the right of the axis
that seems to have more of their task
exposed to AI ultimation let's take a
deeper dive into the paper they
basically take the jobs and a task
associated with the job and then get
both human Raiders as well as gp4 to
assess what level of automation is
affected so for example if you have
acute care nurses the work activities
they would do would include operating
diagnostic or therapeutic medical
instruments or equipment preparing
medical supplies or equipment to use so
they would give this information to
train human Raiders as well GPT 4 and
ask it how much will AI impact the
things that these people do before I
dive into these findings to really
appreciate what it all means we first
need to take a step back and look into
the past where similar things have have
occurred and what happened afterwards
every business no matter how large and
no matter how small will be on the
internet in the year 2000 these
groundbreaking Technologies they're
called general purpose Technologies and
they are characterized largely by four
things widespread proliferation of usage
continuous Improvement generation of
complimentary Innovations where people
take that technology and then build upon
it and massive disruption to both the
labor force and society as a whole let's
look as examples the printing press
before the printing press books articles
things like that they were not widely
available and they're considered very
precious so they depended on a small
number of people who would read and then
tell everybody else uh what it is that
was on the paper now with the invention
of the printing press and specifically
the glutenberg press in the mid-5th
century all of this changed the way that
it worked is that they would carve out
individual letters and numbers and being
able to rearrange them and dramatically
increase the speed at which things can
be printed this was a revolutionary
Discovery and suddenly people had access
to written text people started being
able to read things to understand things
to think things and this led to things
like the Renaissance the reformation and
countless revolutions so while this
technology enabled a lot of new
developments it also caused Great
displacements in the labor force
suddenly there was not really any need
for scribes and manuscript copiers there
wasn't any need for people who would
decorate these books and parchment and
vellum produc which is the skin of
animals that people would write on
because the printing press worked much
better on
paper before the steam engine was
invented people were born they would
Farm raise their animals get married and
do all those things and eventually die
all within a very small amount of space
and if you're lucky you might have some
hor drawn carriages or cows that were
able to carry you to different places
people were essentially bound to their
location but around around the Turning
of the century of the 18th century there
was a guy called Nicholas Joseph cogno
he built a steam powered contraption
that allowed him to move at 2 mph this
was very clunky and very
expensive then in 1863 there was a
Belgian inventor by the name of Ian
lenois who made the first combustion
engine that allowed him to travel 7 mph
wow people tinkered around with it and
finally it was James watt that perfected
the steam engine and this was
revolutionary because that was the
foundation that was needed to start the
Industrial Revolution and on the
transportation side this led to the
first gas-based engine which eventually
evolve into the cars that you see all
around you
everywhere but at the same time there
was massive disruption to the labor
force the Advent of steam powered
Machinery task like plowing and
threshing became more efficient so there
was less need for agricultureal workers
before the railway existed goods were
often transported via rivers and
different canals requiring boatmen and
watermen but now that there's a railway
there's no need for that anymore a lot
of Craftsmen and Artisans also lost
their jobs with the rise of factories
and mass production techniques so you
probably get the point now there's
something that's being invented that
dramatically changes how it is that
people live like all the things around
them and with that there's a disruption
to the current status quo including the
labor market with the invention of
electricity in the 18th and 19th century
there is no more need for so much candl
light people were able to stay up later
during the night and come up with more
things there's water and plumbing now
and refrigerator so there's no more need
for the Milkman or the ice cutter
perhaps you watching this has gone
through the time in which the internet
didn't exist You've Got Mail finally now
in the 21st century this new technology
this new innovation is artificial
intelligence and here are the jobs that
the research believe will be the most
highly impacted interpreters and
translators at around 76% exposure
survey researchers at 75% exposure poets
lyricists and creative writers around
68.8% animal scientists at
66.7% and public relations specialists
at
66.7% though this is on the conservative
side it looks like there's also going to
be a decline on web and digital
interface designers blockchain engineers
and mathematicians so traditionally
pretty high paying jobs they also found
that the importance of Science and
critical thinking skills are strongly
negatively associated with exposure so
basically saying that occupations
requiring these skills are less likely
to be impacted by current large language
models while on the other hand skills
like programming and writing um show a
strong positive association with
exposure so implying that these
occupations that involve these skills
are more susceptible to being impacted
by large language models so there you go
those are the predictions and why these
numbers are so big in terms of exposure
the reason is because um it's not just
the base technology of AI that's going
to be impacting these jobs and these
skill sets it's the fact that there's
going to be a lot of Technologies like
softwares and apps and stuff that are
built on top of these AI technologies
that will have massive impact in
specific domains so in the beginning of
this video I said that you will leave
this video feeling inspired so how can
you feel inspired knowing that there
will be loss of jobs
as you notice with these innovations
that came about there were so many
improvements in quality of life and new
things that were being formed from these
based Technologies these general purpose
Technologies overall our quality of life
has increased with each of these new
technologies that have come out and with
that new jobs that are formed with steam
engines that are invented there's now
Railway workers Engineers steamship
workers and transport and Logistics with
the of electricity electrical engineers
electricians power plant operators and
electrical tool manufacturers with the
computer and the internet software
Engineers data Engineers data scientists
data analysts Ecommerce cyber security
and my job right now content creator
with AI there will be and in fact there
already is a similar Trend prompt
engineer AI developer in fact the title
of Andrew ning's talk is opportunities
in AI Andrew talks about all the
different types of technologies that are
being developed on top of AI
traditionally speaking these
Technologies were so expensive and so
complex that only the biggest companies
were able to use them but there's a long
tale to this there's billion dooll
Industries but there's also like $100
million Industries $10 million $1
million Industries and now people are
empowered to develop for these
industries as well for example someone
might be running a small mom and pop
pizza shop they can have an AI power
tool that can take orders for them and
in a year they could be saving a few
thousand that might not sound like a lot
of money but to that store that's
significant now extrapolating that to
the pizza stores around the country
around the world that might not be a$1
billion industry but that could be a$
1010 million industry where now people
can improve their livelihoods I also
want to make a note that these
Transformations don't just happen by
themselves and it doesn't happen
overnight armar ra is a company that we
built with the former CEO of Tinder and
with my my team's expertise in Ai and
her expertise in relationships were're
able to build something pretty unique
you are someone that can build something
on top of the AI technology to improve
one or more of these industries a large
Japanese conglomerate called mitu they
came to me and they said hey Andrew you
should build the business to use AI to
make ships more fuel efficient be
someone that Embraces that change that
uses that change cuz that technology
it's not going to go away and that
change is going to happen whether you
like it or not so why not be proactive
learn adapt and harness its powers for
those interested in Humanities and maybe
politics be that person who is going to
be influencing policy makers on how
these Technologies should be used in the
end technology is just technology it is
not good and it is not evil it is up to
us to decide how it's going to be used
and there is so much opportunity to be
part of that all right I hope this video
is helpful please leave in the comments
what your thoughts are where you think
you could be providing value what you
want to learn how do you want to be part
of this conversation and I will see you
guys in next video or live stream
浏览更多相关视频
5.0 / 5 (0 votes)