Will AI Take Our Jobs? | All-In Podcast

Summary

The transcript discusses the impact of AI on the job market, with various perspectives on whether AI will displace human workers or create new opportunities. It highlights the historical context of previous industrial revolutions and technological advancements, suggesting that while certain jobs may be automated, overall productivity and economic growth tend to increase. The conversation also touches on the potential of AI in robotics and the future of domestic robots, with predictions on their availability and functionality in households.

Takeaways

• 📺 John Stewart's viral segment on AI and job displacement has brought the topic into mainstream public consciousness.
• 🚀 CEOs like Brian Chesky and Aaron Levy anticipate significant productivity gains due to AI, potentially affecting large portions of their workforces.
• 🤖 AI customer support agents are exemplified as driving substantial profit increases and replacing hundreds of full-time employees.
• 📊 Historically, GDP components remain resilient over time, suggesting that economic structures adapt rather than collapse due to technological revolutions.
• 🏭 The Industrial Revolution saw job displacement, but ultimately led to economic growth and the creation of new job categories.
• 💡 AI is expected to increase productivity, which historically has correlated with rising compensation and the emergence of new job classes.
• 🌐 Public perception of AI's impact on jobs is being shaped by social media and influential figures, potentially amplifying concerns.
• 📰 Past media coverage has sensationally warned about job loss due to technology, such as the 1983 New York Times article on computers in knowledge work.
• 🔄 The cycle of technological advancement, job disruption, and subsequent economic growth suggests that AI's impact may follow a similar pattern.
• 🏠 Speculations on the future role of AI and robotics in domestic settings include the potential for general-purpose robots performing household tasks.
• 🤔 The discussion emphasizes the importance of understanding historical contexts and avoiding alarmist perspectives when considering AI's role in the economy and job market.

Q & A

What is the main topic of discussion in the transcript?

The main topic of discussion is the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on jobs and the economy, including the potential for AI to replace or augment various job roles and the historical context of technological revolutions and their effects on employment and productivity.

How has the public perception of AI in relation to jobs changed recently?

The public perception of AI's impact on jobs has started to enter mainstream consciousness, with more people becoming aware of the potential for AI to replace large swaths of jobs, as highlighted by discussions on platforms like The Daily Show and influential figures like Brian Chesky and Aaron Levy.

What are the historical components of US GDP, and how have they remained resilient over time?

The components of US GDP have remained surprisingly consistent over long periods of time. Consumer consumption is always around 70%, net exports are a few percent plus or minus, gross domestic investment is around the 20% level, and government consumption is also around the 20% level. These components add up to GDP and have not changed significantly since the 1920s, except during acute events like World War II.

What was the outcome of job displacement during the Industrial Revolution?

During the Industrial Revolution, there was significant job displacement as specific job classes fell to zero, leading to unemployment and the collapse of income associated with those jobs. However, new job classes were eventually created, and the economy found a way to grow despite the initial displacement.

How does productivity relate to worker compensation over time in the US?

As productivity increases in the US, worker compensation has historically tracked it. This means that as AI and other innovations boost productivity, it is expected that compensation will also rise, leading to the creation of new job classes and economic growth.

What is the significance of the historical cases mentioned in the transcript when discussing AI's impact on jobs?

The historical cases demonstrate that while technological revolutions may initially cause job displacement, they ultimately lead to increased productivity, lower costs, and the emergence of new industries and job opportunities. This provides a framework for understanding the potential impact of AI on the job market.

What was the New York Times article from June 2nd, 1983 about?

The New York Times article from June 2nd, 1983 was about how computers were eliminating jobs in industries that were effectively offline knowledge work industries at the time, such as engineering designs and architectural drawings. The article highlighted the fear that these jobs would be eliminated due to automation enabled by software.

How did the software revolution change the nature of work?

The software revolution enabled people to do much more work than they could with pencil and paper. It allowed for the creation of digital output and the emergence of new industries, leading to increased productivity and economic growth.

What is the potential role of AI in the future of work?

AI is expected to provide leverage for knowledge work, enhancing productivity and potentially leading to the creation of new job classes. Instead of simply replacing human workers, AI could enable people to shift to higher-order work, resulting in economic growth and increased productivity.

What is the significance of humanoid robots in the context of AI and job displacement?

Humanoid robots represent a further step in the integration of AI into various aspects of work and life. They have the potential to perform tasks optimized for the human body type, leading to increased efficiency and possibly new job roles. However, there are still significant safety and development challenges before they become commonplace in domestic settings.

What are the potential timelines for having domestic help robots in middle-class American homes?

The discussion suggests varying timelines, with one viewpoint suggesting that within seven years, every middle-class household in America could have a domestic help robot capable of performing various household tasks. However, other viewpoints suggest that the timeline might be longer and that the form of these robots might not necessarily be humanoid.

Outlines

00:00

🤖 AI's Impact on Jobs and Public Perception

The paragraph discusses the growing public awareness of AI's potential to revolutionize the job market, as highlighted by a viral segment by John Stewart on The Daily Show. It mentions interviews with CEOs from Airbnb and Box, who anticipate significant productivity gains and job displacement due to AI. The speaker argues that while specific job categories may be eliminated, historical trends show that new jobs are created and productivity increases, as seen in previous industrial revolutions. The speaker uses three charts to illustrate the resilience of GDP components over time, the disruption of specific jobs, and the historical correlation between productivity gains and increased worker compensation.

05:00

🚀 Historical Context of Technological Revolutions

This paragraph delves into the historical context of technological revolutions, particularly the Industrial Revolution, and draws parallels to the current AI revolution. It discusses the fear of job elimination due to automation and the eventual growth of industries through increased productivity. The speaker argues that computers, like AI today, have historically enhanced jobs rather than eliminated them, leading to the creation of new industries and economic growth. The conversation emphasizes the importance of understanding historical cases to predict the future impact of AI on jobs and the economy.

10:00

🤔 Media Narratives and Public Fears on AI

The paragraph addresses the media's role in shaping public perception about AI and its impact on jobs. It criticizes the media for hyping the fear of job loss due to AI, while downplaying other significant issues like war and national debt. The speaker argues that AI will lead to productivity gains in the short to medium term, and while job losses may occur in the long term, new jobs will be created as a result of the productivity boom. The paragraph also includes a humorous anecdote about a video clip featuring AI, highlighting the public's evolving attitude towards AI and automation.

15:02

🧠 The Limitations and Potential of AI Compared to Human Intelligence

This paragraph explores the limitations of current AI technology, referencing an expert's comparison of a four-year-old's experience to the data processed by the largest language models. It emphasizes that despite advancements, AI is still more 'artificial' than 'intelligent'. The conversation turns to the potential of AI in robotics, with speakers discussing the development of humanoid robots and their potential applications. The discussion includes the challenges of making robots safe for domestic use and the potential for AI to improve decision-making in robotics, drawing parallels to the development of self-driving cars.

20:03

🏠 The Future of Domestic Robots and Their Economic Viability

The paragraph discusses the future of domestic robots, focusing on their potential roles in households, the expected timeline for their availability, and the economic considerations. The speakers debate the feasibility of a general-purpose domestic robot, the tasks it might perform, and the price point that would make it accessible to middle-class households. They also consider alternative forms of AI applications in homes, such as specialized robots for specific tasks, and compare the potential profitability of industrial versus consumer AI applications.

Keywords

💡AI

Artificial Intelligence (AI) refers to the simulation of human intelligence in machines that are programmed to think and learn like humans. In the context of the video, AI is discussed as a transformative technology that has the potential to change jobs and increase productivity, but also raises concerns about job displacement.

💡Productivity gains

Productivity gains refer to the increase in output or efficiency achieved through technological advancements, better processes, or improved skills. In the video, it is suggested that AI will lead to significant productivity gains, particularly in white-collar jobs and customer support roles.

💡Job displacement

Job displacement occurs when technological advancements, such as AI, replace human labor, leading to unemployment in certain job categories. The video highlights the public's growing concern about AI wiping out large swaths of jobs and the potential impact on the workforce.

💡GDP components

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) components refer to the various sectors or categories that contribute to the total economic output of a country. The video uses historical data on US GDP components to illustrate the resilience and consistency of these components over time, suggesting that while specific jobs may be disrupted, the overall economic structure remains stable.

💡Industrial Revolution

The Industrial Revolution was a period of major industrialization that began during the 1700s and spread throughout Europe and North America. It marked a shift from agrarian economies to industrial ones, often associated with significant technological advancements and societal changes. The video draws parallels between the Industrial Revolution and the current AI revolution, noting the displacement of certain jobs but also the creation of new opportunities.

💡Public consciousness

Public consciousness refers to the collective awareness or perception of the society towards a particular issue or phenomenon. In the context of the video, it highlights the growing awareness and concern among the general public about the potential impact of AI on jobs and the economy.

💡White collar jobs

White collar jobs are typically office or administrative positions that require specialized skills or knowledge, often involving non-manual work. The video discusses the impact of AI on these types of jobs, suggesting that AI could lead to increased efficiency and potential job displacement in fields such as media and customer support.

💡Economic growth

Economic growth refers to the increase in the production of goods and services in an economy over a certain period of time, typically measured by the increase in GDP. The video suggests that despite the potential for job displacement, AI could lead to economic growth by increasing productivity and creating new industries.

💡Knowledge work

Knowledge work involves the creation, manipulation, and dissemination of information and knowledge. It typically requires specialized skills and education. The video discusses the potential for AI to augment or replace certain types of knowledge work, such as architectural design and data analysis.

💡Robotics

Robotics refers to the branch of technology that deals with the design, construction, operation, and use of robots. The video touches on the intersection of AI and robotics, suggesting that advancements in AI could lead to more intelligent and capable robots that can make decisions and perform tasks autonomously.

💡Optimus

Optimus is a project by Tesla, aiming to develop a general-purpose humanoid robot. The video mentions Optimus as an example of how AI advancements could lead to the development of robots that can perform a variety of tasks, potentially impacting the labor market and the way we live.

Highlights

John Stewart's segment on AI and its impact on jobs went viral, sparking public discussion on the topic.

CEOs like Brian Chesky from Airbnb and Aaron Levy from Box anticipate significant productivity gains due to AI, potentially affecting job roles in their companies.

AI customer support agents are driving a $40 million increase in profits, replacing the workload of 700 full-time employees.

There is a debate on whether AI will displace people or if new jobs will be created, reflecting the public's growing concern about the impact of AI on employment.

The components of US GDP have remained surprisingly resilient over long periods, with consumer consumption always around 70%.

During the Industrial Revolution, specific job classes saw a drop to zero, but the economy found a way to grow, indicating resilience in the face of technological change.

Productivity and worker compensation have historically moved in tandem, suggesting that as productivity increases, so does compensation, leading to the creation of new job classes.

The perception of AI's impact on jobs is becoming more widespread due to social media, influencing public consciousness and discourse.

An article from 1983 in the New York Times discussed the fear of computers eliminating jobs, which turned out to enhance job roles and create new industries.

AI is seen as a tool for giving humans leverage in knowledge work, potentially leading to higher-order tasks and economic growth.

The shift from manual labor to knowledge work, and now to AI-enhanced creativity, represents a significant transition in the nature of human work.

The potential for AI to replace or augment jobs is seen as a continuation of historical patterns with technological revolutions, ultimately leading to job creation.

The media's focus on AI's impact on jobs may be a distraction from other pressing issues, such as wars or national debt.

The comparison of AI's capabilities to a four-year-old's experiences highlights the significant gap between current AI technology and human cognitive abilities.

The development of humanoid robots like Tesla's Optimus represents a new frontier in AI applications, with potential implications for both industrial and domestic settings.

The timeline and cost for domestic robots to become a common household item is a topic of debate, with estimates ranging from three to seven years and prices from $1,000 to $100,000.

The potential applications of AI and robotics in industrial monitoring and maintenance show the technology's versatility and practical benefits.

Transcripts

all right if you missed it John Stewart

did a segment on AI on The Daily Show he

came back he's doing I think Mondays

every week and it went viral and it was

about how AI is going to change our jobs

faster than any previous labor

Revolution so it seems like the public

is starting to get an idea uh about AI

wiping out large swats of jobs and it's

starting to hit the mainstream CEOs like

Brian chesky from Airbnb and Aaron Levy

from box I had them on this week

startups that's in the last year they

said they anticipate 30 to 50%

productivity gains for a lot of the jobs

in their companies developers customer

support all that stuff and we covered

cloners AI customer support agent doing

the job of 700 full-time employees and

driving a $40 million increase in

profits this year yada y y we've we've

talked about this over and over again

but it seems to be tipping over into

public Consciousness we chamath have

talked about whether humans will find

more work to do or if this is going to

truly displace people I think we all

kind of feel like at least to the best

of my memory we all feel like new jobs

will be created but it is entering the

Public's Consciousness what impact is

that going to have if the public starts

thinking AI is going to take their job

chath I mean I think that social media

will make this perception more

widespread than it's been at other

moments of Revolution and Innovation but

we've gone through this before I'd like

to summarize my thoughts in three charts

okay and I call

this this time it's not different so so

chart number one for those watching on

YouTube is a look at the components of

US GDP this is from the Bureau of

economic

analysis now this goes from 1929 up to

2011 so it doesn't go all the way back

to the 1800s and we're missing the last

decade but the point is the following if

you can see the chart I'll if you can't

see it I'll describe it to you which is

that GDP the components of GDP are

surprisingly resilient and roughly the

same over long stretches of time which

is that even though GDP goes up consumer

consumption is always around 70% net

exports are a few perc plus or minus

gross domestic investment is around the

20% level and then government

consumption is around the 20% level and

that's what adds up to GDP so that's an

important thing to note why because in

the absence of something very acute like

World War II these things don't change

over long periods of time okay so if

that is true what happens when you have

any kind of a revolution so let's look

at the Industrial Revolution so the

shift from farms to factories and what

you saw was exactly what people should

be worried about with respect to AI

which is in specific job classes things

just fall to zero so unemployment

basically went to zero and the income

associated with those jobs also went to

zero so this is what people are worried

about but if you remember the last chart

the point is somehow we found a way

to find growth and this is what's

demonstrated on this final chart which

is when you look at us productivity and

worker compensation this is going from

World War II to today you find that

every time we find a new way of

innovating compensation tends to track

it so if you take these three things

together number one which is the

components of GDP rarely change number

two is that yes there are certain

categories of jobs that always get

disrupted away but the third is the most

important which is that as productivity

goes up which is what AI should give us

just as we've seen in the past

compensation also goes up which means

new job classes will be created so I

think the macro picture if you look back

hundreds of years is that this is like

many other moments in time it feels more

personal right now because we're all

living it right none few of us live The

Agrarian to Industrial Revolution yeah

we missed it and few of us live the

technological Revolution right we came

in at the heels of it but I suspect that

this time is not different freeberg your

thoughts on this I think you've said

something similar on past

episodes but it is kind of tipping and

into public Consciousness and it's also

affecting White Collar jobs this time

not just people in fields picking

berries and so those people may be a

little more vocal and we've seen massive

layoffs intact massive layoffs in media

and those jobs don't seem to be coming

back people seem to be get taking the

gain and just having people on the team

be 30% more efficient as Brian told me

on my other pod so what do you think

freeberg is this time different or is it

the same so here's this article from

June 2nd 1983 in the New York Times all

about how computers are eliminating jobs

in industries that were effectively

offline knowledge work Industries at the

time creating engineering designs

creating architectural drawing

I think this article spoke to the fact

that these jobs were going to be

eliminated and as we all know those jobs

actually got enhanced by computers

productivity went up and new sub

Industries emerged and in fact the

overall Industries actually grew in some

cases when we were fearful of them being

replaced due to the automation enabled

by software so I think that in this

particular sense we can talk about the

Industrial Revolution enabling through

Manufacturing Systems and centralized

production

a a replacement of manual labor with

machines what we're talking about now is

a replacement of knowledge work that has

been aided by computers with machines so

the machines no longer even need the

human but the reality is that these

systems are actually going to give

humans 10 to 100x leverage so when you

think about that one person could spend

three weeks making an architectural

drawing today what if that one person

could make an architectural drawing

every six hours so the question then is

do do we stop making architectural

drawings and we fire a bunch of

Architects or does the cost of making an

architectural drawing drop by 90% And it

enables us to do more detailed higher

resolution architectural drawings across

more places more frequently and the

industry actually booms and what we've

seen historically is that when

productivity goes up costs go down the

actual volume balloons and the economy

grows so it's a it's an example where I

think in this particular case we will

see these tools creating more leverage

for knowledge work instead of just

simply replacing knowledge work and that

humans will start to shift to a higher

order of work and we'll see the economy

grow and productivity go up uh as a

result so so I think that's my kind of

key read on on on the story but it's

very hard to connect the dots for people

without having all of these historical

cases and I think one of the ways to

think about doing this usefully is you

go back to the software Revolution and

all the stuff that we were doing with

pencil and papers before computers we

actually didn't lose all those jobs the

people could now do 100 times or a

thousand or a million times as much work

and new Industries emerged and

productivity went up and the economy

grew and so we just have to have

this this realization as this starts to

take hold that the industries will

change and that these systems will

actually provide leverage not

replacement yeah it's such a good point

and I think what you teach your kids is

like really important at the this moment

in time like having a job that is

replaced by AI or that could be greatly

replaced by AI might be a mistake and if

you think about being a conductor

freedberg or a

maestro a conductor of an orchestra I

think that's the job of the future is

can you work with these agents forget

about co-pilots because that's phase one

of all this but agents are phase two

where you have an agent who's writing

copy who's should the HubSpot example

you gave before you know a designer

who's in the cloud who's an agent an AI

agent making you artwork and then you

Stitch all these things together I've

been loading chat jpt with my kids

constantly asking history questions and

whatever questions they want I've been

teaching them how to use chat GPT that's

great yeah I mean I think it's like a

like there's this whole transition of

humans doing manual labor to doing

knowledge work where you're using

software to create digital output to now

having more folks spend more of their

time being conceptualists or creators

where you can kind of be an architect or

a of something and the system just

generates it you know you state your

intended objective and the system solves

for it as opposed to hey I got to go

build the Excel spreadsheet and check

the formula in every cell and do all the

manual what if I just say hey here's

what I want the model to do please

generate it for me and you get the

result it enables you to do a 100 times

more work that's why I use the analogy

conductor or yeah August leader sax what

do you think this is uh you're you're

you're on the populace side you really

have your finger on what Americans think

and that's a compliment it's a literal

compliment but I do think you're I think

you've become a pop especially as the

longer I've known you we've known each

other for over 20 years you've become

more populist so what what's the word on

the street here amongst you know JP and

how do you think they're taking this

news when they see somebody like John

Stewart they respect when you see

somebody like Jonathan John Stewart you

know doing this that's like gonna hit a

large swath of these you know you know

Elites that we've talked about before on

the show who are losing their jobs or

maybe their salaries are getting capped

well first of all Jason to quote Senator

Gras from Gladiator I may not be a man

of the people but I do try to be a man

for the people yes exactly so uh oh my

god did you see the AI did you see the

AI from some YC commentator company

where they like made a little video of

us and like we're talking about

somebody's nuts and then they were like

you said oh I'm going to ask my butler

to ask my assistant to ask my house

manager to then ask my chauffeur to pick

those up it's like it was a pretty great

clip yeah it looked funny look to be

frank no one cares what John Stewart

thinks he's never been less relevant and

less funny um this is a story that the

media has been hyping up for months now

CO's over so they need something else to

scare us with and what they really

should be talking is that we've got two

Wars that risk spiraling out of

control they don't want to go there they

don't want to go there or or the naal

debt exactly right they don't want to go

there either because neither of those

issues reflect well on the current

Administration and power so they're

going to scare us with this now look in

the short to medium term AI leads to

productivity gains in the long term it

may lead to job losses but as you guys

pointed out hopefully by then we'll have

lots of other jobs created by the

productivity boom that we're going to

get and this has been the case

throughout history with regard to

technology improvements and if we don't

have these productivity improvements

what's going to drive the growth in GDP

what's going to allow us to pay off this

enormous national debt that seems to be

yep you know so large that we it's unrep

we need the productivity gains that AI

is going to unlock without them we're

definitely toast so look I I don't place

a lot of stock in this John Stewart's

story it's just one of many that the

media is is creating to try and scare us

about AI that's actually a great guest

John Stewart would be a great guest

along with Lena Khan put those on the

list have you seen this um clip where

Yan Lon basically says our best llm is

50 times smaller than what a

four-year-old has processed since

they've foury old is awake has been

awake a total of 16,000 hours and you

say Okay 16,000 hours multiply this by

3600 seconds per hour and then figure

out like what's the um bandwidth of the

optical nerve going to the cortex it's

about 20 megabytes so you have 1 million

nerve fibers per uh per per eye and it's

about 10 bytes per second right give a

take

um so multiply that's 10 the 15 bytes by

the time you're four 50 times more than

whatever llm like the biggest in the

world have been trained on okay so what

that tells you is that in the space of a

few months a baby has seen more

information than the biggest LMS that we

have the point is that and this is one

of the foremost experts in Ai and really

one of the fathers of modern AI what

he's basically saying is it's still more

artificial than intelligent and and

everybody needs to take a deep breath

and understand that there's just going

to be a lot more work before you get to

this omnipresent agent that just

replaces and destroys everything and

thinks on its own yeah I'm willing to

bet on all of us versus a bunch of

four-year-olds and I just want to say

Kumbaya to Davos as well the clip from

Davos thanks for letting us use

that yeah it's interesting Sachs like

um the number of jobs that will be

replaced or augmented and then the

creation of jobs and then you start

thinking about well how many jobs exist

in the real world I saw weo is doing

Uber Eats deliveries and you just think

wow more people are going to be able to

afford UB breeds which is kind of

expensive to to use so consumption is

going to go up and then you think about

the Optimus and then what's the other

robot company that's making a general

human robot figure and man those are

starting to get really interesting and I

think that's going to be the unlock so

maybe you could speak a little bit to

saxs what do you think happens when we

start getting humanoid robots in the mix

and do you have any investments in that

space I don't because I don't I don't do

that kind of Hardware R&D I mean look I

think you're right that AI does lead to

robotics because one of the hard things

about robotics is just having the the

robot not just move but understand

what's happening in the world around it

and then make the right decisions about

how to react to that and so llms do

start creating a path for the robots to

be able to make Intelligent Decisions

without having to be programmed with a

bunch of if then statements right and I

mean self-driving kind of does this too

I mean self-driving is sort of the

early it's kind of like the early

prototype for these kinds of robots and

that that's why it's not a surprised

that Tesla is developing Optimus is

because you think about what

self-driving is it's it's a device a car

with a whole bunch of cameras on it it

takes in all that visual information and

then it makes decisions about how to

move and how to react and then it's it's

trained based on mirroring human

decisions all those human decisions that

Tesla's been able to gather through the

combination of self-driving with humans

intervening allows it to

train the the self-driving I guess brain

you could say well and it's also Sachs

moving at two or three miles per hour so

it can take its time and if You' haven't

seen this figure this combines the

language model with what you're

discussing Sachs so the language model

when you show them a picture and you say

hey and this is from figure and there's

a this is a their robot and it says hey

give me something to eat have you guys

seen this before I've heard some of the

the founders of these robotics companies

talk about why they create robots in a

humanoid shape and it's not just

because they're trying to create a

replacement for humans or something like

that it's also because now they can

point cameras at the way that humans

move yes and so they can actually train

these robots on how humans move and

react to things so you're able to kind

of create a large data set kind of like

with self-driving so that the robots are

able to learn how to how to move and I

I've seen a different video where uh

Optimus the Tesla robot is folding

shirts pretty impressive yeah what's

what's really interesting about this

freeberg is when I spoke to the the

people who are making these Evolution

has made

humans to operate in the world most

efficiently over whatever number of

years

and creatures before us so in fact the

world is optimized for the human body

type and so maybe you could talk a

little bit about what you think is going

to happen with these robots freedberg in

the in the short and medium term when

will we have one of these robots in our

houses what will the price point be in 5

to 10 years and what will they be doing

in 5 to 10 years I don't know we explore

we should explore that question at the

all-in summit 2024 okay shout out to

Elon Elon can you can you bring Optimus

to the event please Jason I don't think

it's a 5year time frame I think it's

longer than that that's just my guess

and one of the reasons is if you look at

the use of robots in call it industrial

production today they don't want humans

getting too close to them they're

actually kind of dangerous because you

have these arms flying around they move

quickly they're very heavy you get

banged on the head by one of them it's

going to take you out so a good point

the idea of having a robot in your house

that's capable of freely moving you to

make that so safe to a point that they

just haven't gotten to yet with robots

so there's just going to be like a lot

of fine-tuning work that happens before

this is a domestic product I think in

the near term it's all about industrial

applications or maybe even military

applications well it's and if you've

ever been to the the

gigafactories I I was doing a little

tour of one of them once and somebody

grabbed me because I almost wandered

into one of those areas and they have

tape on the floor then they have a wall

ET but if you even get within a

certain closeness with this tape on the

floor it shuts the whole thing down

because they're afraid somebody's going

to get crushed behind One of These Arms

chath I'll give it to you when will we

have one of these robots in our homes

for the price of a Prius now by the way

Prius is a car that costs about $50,000

that common folk drive so $50,000 robot

in our

houses I think it'll be less than that I

think it's going to be in the next two

or three years Years you'll have a

domestic help robot that you can

probably pay a, bucks a month for okay

which would be like $100,000 car payment

that would be the equivalent of a car

payment on a $100,000 car so okay you

say under five you say three what do you

think free BR same bet $1,000 a month

robot $100,000 sticker price when will

we have that in our homes no no I think

it's a thousand a month thousand a month

which would be the equivalent over

whatever number of months and what is it

it does it's general purpose does

different stuff General purses robot

$1,000 a month 50 payments I think it

washes the dishes I think it will do the

laundry take out the trash there'll be

like a whole set of house household

tasks that it will do walk the

dog no no not responsible for a live

creature what do you say freeberg $1,000

a month at home robot does your dishes

there there's a great bet for us give us

the over under how many years fre I'm

not sure I think the so of science come

on man give us a year well I I don't

think it necessarily follows this

general purpose model I think that there

are likely going to be

more

narrow application ranges and they're

not going to necessarily be

humanoid in form factor um I don't know

if you guys have seen a gecko robotics

have you guys seen this company are you

guys investors in this nope pretty

impressive like Suite of

um autonomous products that do specific

things in industrial settings so they

have like robots that climb on the

outside of buildings and look for cracks

using special scanning equipment but

they're very autonomous and how they

operate and what they can do and they've

got a whole class of robots that can

then be each one of those robots can do

many different tasks for many different

applications and so the form

factors they've got kind of a set of

form factors meaning a set of robots

that look differently

and have different capabilities of them

like little spider legs or arms or or

whatever and then they can be applied to

go do something autonomously and then

they just run and they do it you pull

that up you'll see it climbing walls

riding along pipes yeah they built well

they're not purpose that's what's

interesting they're they're sort

of a narrow range of applications but

they're not specific to do only one

thing and so they can work in different

environments and do different things and

so you'll kind of pick from their Suite

of robots which ones you want to use to

do different different tasks and then

they go and do it it's really

interesting they're mostly using them

for industrial monitoring applications

right now like looking on bridges for

brakes

and cleaning windows cleaning windows

all that kind of stuff oh cleaning

windows that's a good one yeah so

they've got like a really cool suite and

I think that's what we're likely to see

in domestic settings as well all right

so you

play by the way I will say the success

of gecko indicates that there's far more

money to be made in industrial

applications than there is in consumer

applications today I disagree so these

yeah I think every human's gonna have

one of these in I think every household

in America every middle class household

in America will have one of these

thousand a month robots in seven years

I'll give it seven you you say do

everything I say to do domestic chores

taking out the trash folden laundry

domestic tasks I just think it's hard to

justify that because you're only

spending so many hours a week doing that

sort of stuff is it really worth a th

bucks a month whereas in the industrial

setting it makes a lot more sense those

dangerous tasks like climbing on a

bridge looking at the seams and climbing

on a a building cleaning the windows

those tasks take years to do sometimes

many many years of high-risk human labor

whereas taking out the trash and folding

laundry might be a little bit more hard

to justify this SP