Everything Elon Musk Said At Tesla's Q1 2024 Earnings Call

Summary

在这段视频脚本中，特斯拉的CEO埃隆·马斯克回顾了公司在第一季度面临的挑战，包括更新Model 3的生产和全球电动汽车市场的增长压力。尽管其他制造商转向插电式混合动力车，特斯拉依然坚持电动汽车，并相信它们最终将主导市场。特斯拉在能源存储部署和MEAP电池包方面取得了创纪录的增长，预计能源业务的盈利能力将继续增长。此外，特斯拉在AI训练能力上也取得了显著进步，新产品路线图已经更新，预计将在2025年初推出更多经济实惠的新车型。关于全自动驾驶（FSD），特斯拉已经为北美约180万辆配备硬件3的车辆推出了基于纯AI的FSD版本12，并且正在迅速改进。马斯克还提到了特斯拉的机器人出租车CyberCap，并强调了特斯拉在AI计算方面的进展，包括安装了35,000个H100计算机，并预计到年底将增加到85,000个。最后，马斯克讨论了特斯拉在未来增长和盈利方面的投资，以及他对公司未来的看法，包括对Optimus机器人和自动驾驶监管批准的预测。

Takeaways

• 🚗 特斯拉在第一季度面临了包括Model 3更新版和Fremont工厂在内的多个挑战，但团队在艰难环境中表现出色，尤其是在能源存储部署方面，MEAP电池包达到了历史新高，推动能源业务实现了创纪录的盈利能力。
• 📈 特斯拉的AI训练能力在第一季度翻了一番多，展望未来，特斯拉将继续扩大其核心AI基础设施，目前已安装并投入使用35,000个H100计算机，预计到年底将达到85,000个。
• 🚀 特斯拉更新了未来的车辆阵容，加速了新车型的推出，预计将在2025年初或2024年末开始生产，新车型将包括更实惠的车型，并使用下一代平台以及当前平台的某些方面。
• 🤖 特斯拉正在开发Optimus人形机器人，预计将在年底前在工厂中进行有限的生产，并可能在明年年底前对外销售。
• 🚘 特斯拉的FSD（全自动驾驶）V12版本已经在美国为所有配备硬件3的汽车推出，目前已有约1.8百万辆车使用，使用率正在逐周上升。
• 💰 特斯拉将FSD的订阅价格降至每月99美元，以降低尝试门槛，并计划在8月展示其专为机器人出租车设计的Cybertruck。
• 🌐 特斯拉认为，基于视觉的端到端神经网络方法是实现可扩展自动驾驶的正确解决方案，整个道路网络都是为生物神经网络和眼睛设计的。
• 🔋 特斯拉正在解决电池成本问题，通过内部电池生产对冲电池成本上升的风险，预计到年底其4680电池的竞争力将超过供应商。
• 📉 尽管全球电动汽车的采用率面临压力，特斯拉相信电动汽车最终将主导市场，而插电式混合动力车只是其他制造商的权宜之计。
• ⏱️ 特斯拉预计今年的销量将超过去年，并且正在与一家主要的原始设备制造商就FSD的许可进行谈判。
• 🌟 特斯拉被视为AI机器人公司而不仅仅是汽车公司，其成功解决自动驾驶技术是公司未来成功的关键。
• 🔧 特斯拉正在简化购车流程，以解决之前过于复杂的销售流程问题，目标是让购车像在一分钟内完成一样简单。

Q & A

特斯拉在2023年第一季度面临了哪些挑战？

特斯拉在2023年第一季度面临了多个未预见的挑战，包括Model 3和Fremont的更新模型的增长，以及全球电动汽车(EV)采用率受到压力。此外，许多其他制造商正在减少对EV的投入，转而追求插电式混合动力车，但特斯拉认为这不是正确的策略。

特斯拉在能源存储部署方面取得了哪些成就？

特斯拉在能源存储部署方面取得了显著成就，MEAP电池包在2023年第一季度达到了历史最高水平，这导致了能源业务的创纪录盈利能力，并有望在未来几个季度和年份继续增长。

特斯拉的新车型推出计划是什么？

特斯拉更新了其未来车型阵容，以加速新车型的推出。预计这些新车型将在2025年初或2024年末投入生产，这些新车型包括更实惠的车型，将使用下一代平台以及当前平台的某些方面，并且能够在当前车辆的生产线上生产。

特斯拉如何看待FSD（全自动驾驶）技术的发展？

特斯拉认为基于视觉的端到端神经网络是可扩展自主性的正确解决方案。FSD版本12已经为所有配备摄像头和推理计算机的北美车辆启用，目前已有大约1.8百万辆车使用，使用率每周都在增加。特斯拉相信，基于摄像头和数字神经网络的解决方案将使道路系统更加易于访问。

特斯拉如何评估Optimus项目的现状和未来？

特斯拉预计Optimus将在年底前在工厂中进行有限的生产，并在明年晚些时候开始外部销售。特斯拉认为，如果能够生产出能够导航现实并按需执行任务的有感知能力的仿人机器人，那么经济规模就没有实际的上限。

特斯拉对于监管批准无监督FSD在美国的路径有何看法？

特斯拉认为，如果有其他自动驾驶汽车公司在监管丛林中开辟道路是有帮助的。如果拥有足够规模的数据，证明自动驾驶汽车的事故率是人类驾驶汽车的一半，那么就很难忽视这一点。特斯拉认为，只要有关自动驾驶汽车比人类驾驶汽车更安全的确凿数据，就不会有重大的监管障碍。

特斯拉如何看待其车队运营模式？

特斯拉将自己视为Airbnb和Uber的某种组合，意味着特斯拉将拥有并运营一定数量的汽车，同时用户也可以根据需要将他们的汽车添加到或从车队中减去，并且可以决定他们的汽车仅供朋友和家人使用，或仅供五星级用户使用，或任何时间任何人使用。

特斯拉是否有计划在短期内推出价格为225,000美元的车型？

特斯拉的思考方式几乎完全集中在解决自动驾驶并为庞大的车队启用自动驾驶上。特斯拉认为，当实现无监督的全自动驾驶时，可能会成为历史上最大的资产价值增值之一。

特斯拉是否与其他原始设备制造商就FSD的未来许可进行了对话？

特斯拉正在与一家主要的原始设备制造商就FSD的许可进行对话。

特斯拉对其未来增长和销售有何信心？

特斯拉相信今年的销售额将高于去年，并且公司认为应该被视为一家人工智能机器人公司，而不仅仅是一家汽车公司。

特斯拉对电池成本和4680电池单元的产量有何看法？

特斯拉认为4680电池单元的内部生产是对供应商电池成本上涨的对冲。由于其他汽车制造商的大规模电池订单，电池成本每千瓦时的价格达到了疯狂的水平。特斯拉正在取得良好进展，并预计今年年底将超过供应商的竞争力。

特斯拉如何看待其产品的定价策略？

特斯拉认为，随着时间的推移，需要确保产品是优秀的，并且价格合理。公司需要不断提高产品的性价比，并使价格更加亲民，同时也要不断改进生产成本。

Outlines

00:00

🚗 特斯拉Q1回顾与未来展望

在第一季度，特斯拉面对了包括Model 3更新版推出和Fremont工厂在内的多个挑战。尽管全球电动汽车市场面临压力，特斯拉依然坚持认为电动汽车将主导市场。特斯拉团队在困难环境下表现出色，尤其是能量存储部署和MEAP电池包达到历史新高，带动能源业务盈利性创新。展望未来，特斯拉预计将在2025年早期推出新车型，并使用下一代平台和现有平台的元素，提高生产效率。此外，特斯拉还强调了FSD V12版自动驾驶技术的快速进步和广泛应用，以及公司在AI训练能力上的扩展。

05:01

🤖 特斯拉AI与机器人技术发展

特斯拉在AI计算方面取得显著进展，不再受限于训练能力，安装并启用了35,000个H100计算机，预计到年底将达到85,000个。特斯拉的自动驾驶技术采用基于视觉的端到端神经网络方法，符合可扩展的自主性需求。公司还计划在8月份展示其专为机器人出租车设计的Cybertruck。此外，特斯拉正在考虑通过其车队提供类似Airbnb和Uber结合的服务，允许车主将车辆加入或退出车队，并自主决定使用权限。

10:01

🚀 特斯拉的增长策略与市场扩张

特斯拉的增长策略聚焦于提高销售量，同时确保产品的价格具有吸引力和可负担性。公司计划继续在全球范围内扩张，尤其是在尚未进入但应当开拓的市场。特斯拉的自动驾驶技术在全球多个市场都具有潜力，计划在获得监管批准后推出。此外，特斯拉还在简化购车流程，以提高用户体验。

15:02

🔋 电池技术与供应链管理

特斯拉在电池技术方面取得了进步，尤其是4680电池的研发。尽管目前4680电池的产量还未达到目标，但公司预计今年底将超越供应商的竞争力。特斯拉通过内部电池生产来对冲电池成本上涨的风险，同时也关注了电池供应链的波动和政府激励措施的影响。

20:04

🌐 全球化挑战与特斯拉的应对策略

特斯拉面临的全球化挑战包括供应链限制和复杂的物流情况。公司正在努力简化销售流程，并解决因运输导致的产品供应问题。特斯拉还关注了电池订单量的变化，以及其他汽车制造商的订单对电池价格的影响。此外，特斯拉也在关注政府政策，如美国的通胀减少法案，对市场需求和生产的影响。

Keywords

💡Model 3

Model 3是特斯拉公司生产的一款电动汽车，它在视频中被提及是因为公司正在更新Model 3的模型。Model 3对于特斯拉来说是一个重要的产品，因为它是公司推动电动汽车普及的关键车型之一。

💡电动汽车（EV）

电动汽车指的是以电作为动力来源的车辆，它们不依赖于传统的内燃机。视频中提到全球电动汽车的采用率正面临压力，但特斯拉相信电动汽车最终将主导市场。

💡能量存储部署

这指的是将电能存储起来以备后用的技术，通常与电池系统相关。在视频中，特斯拉提到其能量存储部署达到了历史新高，这与公司的能源业务记录盈利能力有关。

💡人工智能（AI）

人工智能是指使机器模拟人类智能行为的技术。视频中提到特斯拉在AI训练能力上进行了扩展，这是公司推动自动驾驶技术发展的关键部分。

💡自动驾驶（FSD）

全自动驾驶技术是特斯拉车辆的一项功能，它允许车辆在没有驾驶员干预的情况下自主导航。视频中强调了FSD V12版本的重要性，它基于纯AI，并且正在不断改进。

💡机器人出租车（Cyber Cab）

机器人出租车是特斯拉计划推出的一种新型车辆，它将作为无人驾驶的出租车运营。视频中提到，特斯拉将在8月份展示其为机器人出租车设计的原型车。

💡Optimus

Optimus是特斯拉正在开发的一个项目，指的是一种能够执行工厂任务的机器人。视频中提到，Optimus可能在年底前在工厂中进行有限的生产，并可能在明年对外销售。

💡监管批准

这指的是政府或监管机构对某一产品或技术的正式批准。视频中讨论了在美国获得无人驾驶FSD技术监管批准的路径，暗示了其他自动驾驶汽车公司已经在这方面取得了进展。

💡4680电池

4680电池是特斯拉开发的一种新型电池，旨在提高能量密度和降低成本。视频中提到特斯拉在4680电池的生产上取得了进展，并且这种电池对于公司保持竞争力至关重要。

💡供应链

供应链指的是生产和交付产品所需的原材料、零部件、服务和信息的网络。视频中提到了供应链对于特斯拉的重要性，尤其是在电池成本和可用性方面。

💡成本效益

成本效益指的是以最低的成本获得最大的效益。视频中强调了特斯拉致力于提高其产品的性价比，并且使价格更加亲民，以便更多消费者能够负担得起。

Highlights

在2024年第一季度，特斯拉面临了包括更新Model 3和Fremont工厂在内的多个不可预见的挑战。

尽管全球电动汽车(EV)的采用率受到压力，特斯拉依然坚持认为电动汽车最终将主导市场。

特斯拉团队在艰难环境下表现出色，特别是在能源存储部署方面，MEAP电池包达到了历史新高。

特斯拉的能源业务在第一季度实现了创纪录的盈利能力，并预计将在未来几个季度和年份继续增长。

特斯拉在第一季度扩大了AI训练能力，训练计算能力环比增长超过一倍。

特斯拉更新了未来的车辆阵容，加快了新车型的推出，预计在2025年初或2024年末开始生产。

新车型将包括更实惠的车型，并将使用下一代平台和当前平台的元素，能够在现有生产线上生产。

特斯拉的FSD版本12，基于纯AI的自动驾驶系统，已经为北美所有配备硬件3的车辆推送更新。

特斯拉已经减少了FSD的订阅价格至每月99美元，以便于用户尝试。

特斯拉正在积极扩展其核心AI基础设施，目前已安装并启用了35,000个H100计算机。

特斯拉对于自动驾驶的路线图感到非常兴奋，认为自动驾驶的可靠性将很快超越人类驾驶。

特斯拉预计将在未来几年内实现Optimus人形机器人的有限生产，并可能在明年年底前对外销售。

特斯拉认为，如果能够实现无监督的FSD，那么汽油车将变得像骑马和使用翻盖手机一样过时。

特斯拉将继续进行必要的投资，以推动未来的增长和利润。

特斯拉正在与一家主要的原始设备制造商就FSD的许可进行谈判。

特斯拉认为，如果能够证明自动驾驶汽车比人类驾驶的汽车更安全，将不会有重大的监管障碍。

特斯拉将运营自己的车队，类似于Airbnb和Uber的结合，允许车主随时将车辆加入或移除车队。

特斯拉预计，随着车队的增长，将形成一个持续的反馈循环，类似于谷歌搜索的反馈机制。

特斯拉预计在未来几个月内，随着先进模型的推出，车辆的能力将有显著的改进。

Transcripts

to recap in q1 we navigated several

unforeseen challenges as well as the

ramp for the updated model 3 and Fremont

there was as as people have seen the EV

adoption rate globally is under pressure

and and a lot of other water

manufacturers are pulling back on EVs

and pursuing plug-in hybrids instead we

believe this is not the right strategy

and electric vehicles will ultimately

dominate the market despite these

challenges the tales team did a great

job executing in a tough environment and

energy storage deployments the MEAP pack

in particular reach an alltime High q1

leading to record profitability for the

energy business and that looks likely to

continue to increase in the quarters and

years ahead it will increase we actually

know that it will it's significantly

faster than the car business as we

expected we also continue to expand our

AI training capacity in q1 more than

doubling our training compute uh

sequentially in terms of the new product

road map there's been a lot of talk

about our upcoming vehicle line in the

next in the past several weeks we've

updated our future vehicle lineup to

accelerate the launch of new models

ahead of previously mentioned stter

production in the second half of of so

we expect it to be more like the early

2025 if not late this year these new

vehicles including more affordable

models we'll use aspects of the Next

Generation platform as well as aspects

of our current platforms and will be

able to be produced on the same

manufacturing lines as a current vehicle

lineup it's not contingent on any new

Factory or massive new production line

it'll be made on our current production

lines much more efficiently and and we

think this should allow us to get to

over 3 million vehicles of capacity when

realiz to the full extent regarding FSD

version 12 which is the pure AI based

self-driving people that if you haven't

experienced this I strongly urge you to

try it out it's profound and the rate of

improvement is rapid we and we've now

turned that on for all cars with the

cameras and inference computer and

everything from Hardware 3 on in North

America so it's been pushed out to I

think around 1.8 million vehicles and

we're seeing about half of people use it

so far and that percentage is increasing

with each passing week so we now have

over 300 billion miles that have been

driven with FSD V12 since the launch of

full self driving supervised full self

driving it's become very clear that the

vision based approach with endtoend

neural networks is the right solution

for scalable autonomy it's really how

humans Drive our entire Road network is

designed for biological neural Nets and

eyes so naturally cameras and digital

neural Nets are the solution to our

current road system to make it more

accessible we've reduced the

subscription price to $99 a month so

it's easy to try out and as we've

announced we will be showcasing our

purpose buil robot taxi or cyber cap in

August yeah regarding regarding AI

compute over the past few months we've

been actively working on expanding

Tesla's core AI infrastructure for a

while there we were training constrained

in our progress we are at this point no

longer training constrained and so we're

making rapid progress we've installed

and commissioned meaning they're

actually working 35,000 h100 computers

or gpus GPU is wrong wood they need a

new

wood always feel like a win when I say

GPU because not GPU stands G stands for

graphics and doesn't do Graphics but

anyway roughly 35 h100s are active and

we expect that to be probably 85,000 or

their abouts by the end of this year and

training just for training we are making

sure that we're being as efficient as

possible in our training it's not just

about the number of h100s but how

efficiently they're used so in

conclusion we're super excited about our

autonomy road map and get it should be

obvious to anyone who's driving a

version 12 in a test that is only a

matter of time before we see the

reliability of humans and not much time

at that and we're really headed for an

electric vehicle an autonomous future

and I'll go back to something I said

several years ago that in the future

gasoline cars that are not autonomous

will be like riding a horse and using a

flip phone and that will become very

obvious in in hindsight we continue to

make the necessary Investments that will

drive growth and profits with Tesla in

the future and I want to thank the Tesla

team for incredible execution during

this period and look forward to

everything that we have planned ahead so

what is the current status of Optimus we

are ble to do simple Factory tasks or at

least I should say Factory tasks in the

lab the in terms of actually we do think

we will have Optimus and limited

production in the factory in the actual

Factory itself doing useful tasks before

the end of this year and I think we we

may be able to sell it externally by the

end of next year these just guesses as

I've said before I think Optimus will be

more valuable than everything else

combined uh if you've got a sentient

humanoid robot that is able to navigate

reality and do T asks at at request

there is no meaningful limit to the size

of the economy so that's what's going to

happen and I think Tesla is best

position of any humanoid robot maker to

be able to reach volume production with

efficient inference on the robot itself

the this perhaps is a point that is

worth emphasizing Tesla's inference

efficiency is vastly better than anyone

any other company there's no company

even close to the inference efficiency

of Tesla we've had to do that because we

were constrain by the inference Hardware

in the car wouldn't have a choice but

that that will pay dividends in many

ways what is the current assessment of

the pathway towards regulatory approval

for unsupervised FSD in the US it's

actually been pretty helpful that other

autonomous car companies been cutting a

path through the regulatory jungle but

the which is that's actually quite

helpful and they they have obvious been

operating in San Francisco for a while I

think they got approval for City of La

so these approvals are happening rapidly

I think if you've got at scale a a

statistically significant amount of data

that shows conclusively that the

autonomous car has let's say half the

accident rate of a human driven car I

think that's difficult to ignore because

at that point stopping autonomy means

killing people so I I actually do not

think that there will be significant

regulatory barriers provided there is

conclusive data that the autonomous car

is safer than a human driven car and in

my view this will be much like elevators

elevators used to be operated by a guy

with a relay switch but sometimes that

guy would get tired or drunk or just

make a mistake and Che somebody in half

between flows so now we just have we

just get in an elevator and press button

we don't think about it in fact it's

weird if somebody's standing there with

relay switch that'll be how cars work

you just summon a car using your phone

you get in it takes you to a destination

you get out you don't even think about

it just like an elevator it takes you to

to your floor that's it don't think

about how the elevator is working or

anything like that and and something I

should clarify is that Tesla will be

operating the fleet so you can think of

like how Tesla think of know some

combination of Airbnb and Uber meaning

that there'll be some number of cars

that Tesla owns itself and operates in

the fleet there'll be some number of

cars and there'll be a bunch of cars

where they're owned by the end user but

that end user can add or subtract their

car to the fleet whenever they want and

they can decide if they want to only let

the car be used by friends and family or

only by five star users or by anyone at

any time they could have the car come

back to them and be exclusively theirs

like an Airbnb you could ran out your

guest room or not anytime you want as

our Fleet grow

we have 7 million cars going to 9

million cars going to eventually tens of

millions of cars

worldwide with with with a constant

feedback loop every time something goes

wrong that gets added to the training

data and you get this training flywheel

happening in the same way that Google

search has the sort of flywheel it's

very difficult to compete with Google

because people are constantly doing

searches and clicking and and Google's

getting that feedback GL it's the same

with Tesla but at at a scale that is

maybe difficult to comprehend But

ultimately be 10

I I think there's also some potential

here for an AWS element down the road

where if we've got very powerful

inference because got Hardware 3 in the

cars but now all cars are being made

with Hardware 4 Hardware 5 is pretty

much designed and should be in cars

hopefully towards the end of next year

and there's the potential to have for

the to run when the car is not moving to

to actually run distributed inference

like AWS but with distributed inference

like it takes lot of computers to train

an AI model but many orders magnitude

less compute to run it so if you can

imagine the future paths where there's a

fleet of 100 million Teslas and on

average they've got like maybe a

kilowatt of inference compute that's 100

gaw of inference compute distributed all

around the world it's pretty hard to put

together 100 gaw of AI computer and even

in an autonomous future where the the

car is perhaps used instead of being

used 10 hours a week is used 50 hours a

week still leaves over 100 hours a week

where the car and fence computer could

be doing something else and seems like

it would be a waste not to use it we we

do have some insight into how good the

things will be in like let's say 3 or 4

months because we have advanced models

that are far more capable than what is

in the car but have some issues with

them that we need to to fix so they're

like they'll be they'll be a step change

Improvement in the capabilities of the

car but it'll have some quirks that are

that need to be addressed in order to

release it as a is saying we have to be

very careful in what we release to the

fleet or to to customers in general so

if we look at say 12.4 and 12.5 which

are really could arguably even be

version 13 version 14 because it's

pretty close to Total retrain of the

neural Nets in in each case or

substantially different so we have good

insight into where the models where how

the call how well the car will perform

in say 3 or 4 months can we get an

official announcement of the timeline

for the $225,000 vehicle really the way

to think of Tesla is almost entirely in

terms of solving autonomy and being able

to turn on that autonomy for a gigantic

Fleet and I think it might be the

biggest asset value appreciation in

history when that day happens when you

can do unsupervised full self driving

have any of the Legacy automakers

contacted Tesla about possibly licensing

FSD in the future we're in conversations

with one major order maker regarding

licensing FSD can we make FSD transfer

per permanent until FSD is fully

delivered with level five economy no I

was just wondering if you could

elaborate a little bit more on kind of

the new vehicles I think we've settled

we will on that front so what's your

follow maybe you can just talk about

where your heart is at as a constitutes

a majority of my work time and I work

pretty much every day of the week it's R

for me to take Sunday afternoon off make

sure Tesla is very prosperous and it is

I think it is prosperous and it will be

very much so in the future what's your

team's degree of confidence on growth

above 0% no I think we'll have higher

sales this year than last year how long

would it take your best Chinese

competitors to copy a cheaper and better

vehicle that you could offer a couple

years from now I don't know what our

competitors could do except we've done

relatively better than they have you

know if you look at the drop in our

competitors in China sales versus our

drop in sales our drop was less than

theirs so we're doing well but I think

Kathy would said it best like really we

should be thought of as an AI robotics

Company If You value Tesla as just like

a an auto company you just have to

fundamentally it's just the wrong

framework and will count if you ask the

wrong question then the right answer is

impossible so I mean if somebody doesn't

believe T is going to solve autonomy I I

think they should not be an investor in

the company like that is but we will and

we are and then you have a car that goes

from 10 hours of use a week like an hour

and a half a day to probably 50 but it

costs the same if you've not tried the

FSD

12.3 and like I said 12.4 is going to be

significantly better and 12.5 even

better than that and we have visibility

into those things then you really don't

understand what's going on it's not

possible we're putting the actual Auto

in automobile tell us about future horse

carriages you're making I'm like

actually doesn't need a horse that's the

whole point that's really the whole

point you've spoken about your desire to

obtain 25% voting control of the company

I think no matter what Tesla even if I

got kidnpped by aliens tomorrow Tesla

will solve autonomy maybe a little

slower but it would solve autonomy for

vehicles at least I don't know if it

would win on with respect to Optimus or

with respect to future products but it

would that there's enough momentum would

Tesla to solve autonomy even if I

Disappeared for vehicles now there's a

whole range of things we can do in the

future beyond that i' be more reticent

with respect to Optimus if we have a

super sentient humanoid robot that can

follow you indoors and that you can't

escape we're talking Terminator level

risk and yeah I'd be uncomfortable with

if there's not some meaningful level of

influence over how that is deployed and

if those shareholders have an

opportunity to ratify or ratify the sort

of competition I guess I can't say that

but that is a fact they have an

opportunity okay very good and yeah

we'll see if the company generates a lot

of posi cash flow we could obviously buy

back shares what are the types of

activities that you're presumably

sacrificing as a result of parting ways

with these folks we're not giving up

anything that it's significant that I'm

aware of we' we've just had a long

period of prosperity from 2019 to now

and so if a company organizationally is

5% wrong per year that accumulates to 25

30% of of inefficiency we've made some

corrections along the way but it is time

to reorganize the company for the next

phase of growth and you really need to

reorganize it just like a a human when

we start off with one cell and become of

zygote and elasticy and when you start

growing arms and legs and briefly you

have a tail and but you shed the tail

shed the tail hopefully and then your

baby and you basically you have to be

the organism a company is a creature

growing and if you don't reorganize it

for different phases of growth it it

will fail you can't have the same

organizational structure if you're 10

Cells versus 100 versus a million versus

a billion versus a trillion where humans

are like around 35 trillion cells

doesn't feel like it feels like one

person but you're you're basically a

walking cell colony of roughly 35

trillion depending on your body mass and

about three times that number in

bacteria anyway you you've got to

reorganize the company for a new phase

of growth or it will fail to achieve

that growth can you elaborate on how

much the licensing business opportunity

you mentioned today has progressed I

think we just need to it just needs to

be obvious that our approach is the

right approach and I think it is I think

we now with 12.3 if you just have the

car drive you around it is obvious that

our solution with a relatively low cost

inference computer and standard cameras

can achieve self-driving no Liars no

Radars no Ultrasonics nothing just no

heavy integration work for vehicle

manufacturers yeah it's so it would

really just be a case of having them use

the same cameras and inference computer

and Licensing out software and but it's

once becomes obvious that if you don't

have this in a car nobody wants your car

it's a smart car and I remember like

back when I was King of the Hill cell

phone yeah cring I come out with a

smartphone that was basically a brick

with limited functionality and then

iPhone and Android but people still did

not understand that all the phones are

going to be that way there's not going

to be any foot phon if there will be a n

product or home phone yeah not even

exactly it was last time you saw a home

phone the people don't understand all

cars will need to be smart cars or they

or you will not sell this the car will

not nobody will buy it once that becomes

obvious I think licensing becomes not

optional license it or nobody will buy

your car a deal signed now would result

in it being in a car 3 years that's like

lightning basally I I wouldn't be

surprised if we do sign a deal I think

good chance we do sign a deal this year

maybe more than one but yeah it would be

probably three years before it's

integrated with a car even though all

you need is cameras and our inference

computer so it's like not a massive

design change you still see meaningful

incremental price reductions as making

sense from here for the existing

products yeah I think we can be PR Casal

positive meaningfully end of the day

like for any given company if you sell a

great product at a great price the sale

if if you have a great product at great

price the sales will be excellent mhm

that's true of any Arena over time we do

need to keep making sure that that it's

a great product at a great price and

moreover that price is accessible to

people so it's not you have to solve

both the value for money and the

fundamental affordability question the

fundamental affordability question is

sometimes overlooked somebody's earning

hundred several hundred thousand a year

they they don't think of a car from a

fundamental affordability standpoint but

for vast majority of people are living

paycheck to paycheck so it actually

makes difference if the cost month for

lease or financing is $10 one way or the

other it's important to keep improving

the

affordability to keep s of like making

the price more yeah exactly make the

price more accessible the value for

money better and to keep improving that

over time but also to make kickass cost

that people want to buy yeah it's got to

be a great product at a great price and

the standards for what constitutes a

great product at a great price keep

increasing so there's you you can't just

be static you have to keep saying keep

making the car better improving the

price but improving the cost of

production and that's what we're doing

can you please help us understand maybe

some of the timing of launching FSD in

additional geographies including maybe

clarifying your recent comment about

China like new markets yeah we are a

bunch of markets where we don't

currently sell cars that we should be

selling cars in we'll see some

acceleration of that so the thing about

the all the an to neural net based

autonomy is that just like a human it

actually works pretty well without

modification in almost any market so we

plan on with the pro of The Regulators

releasing it as a supervised autonomy

system in any Market that that where we

can get regulatory approval for that

which we think includes China so yeah

it's just like a human you can go rent a

car in a foreign country and you can

drive pretty well obviously if you're if

you live in that country you'll drive

better and so we will make the car drive

better in these other countries with

country specific training but it can

drive quite well almost everywhere and

understands that it shouldn't hit things

no matter whether or not you feel that

Supply constraints that you mentioned

throughout the release impacted the

results and maybe can you help us

quantify that and is that why you have

some confidence in N growth in 2024 yeah

if you're' got cars that are sitting on

ships they obviously cannot delivered to

people and if you've got de excess

demand for one for model 3 or model Y in

one market but you don't have it there

it's like it's a quite a logist it's

it's extremely complex Logistics

situation so you know and I'd say also

the we did over complicate the sales

process which we've just in the past

week week or so have greatly simplified

so the it just it became far too complex

to buy a Tesla whereas it should just be

you can buy the car in under a minute so

we're getting back to the you can buy

Tesla in under a minute interface from

what was quite complex and your comments

around distributed inference can you

talk about what that approach is

unlocking Beyond what's happening in the

vehicle right now that's why I think

it's analogous to Amazon web services

where people didn't expect that AWS

would be the most valuable part of

Amazon when it started out as a

bookstore so that was on nobody's radar

but they found that they had excess

compute because the compute needs would

spike to extreme levels for brief

periods of the year and then they had

idle compute for the rest of the year so

then what should they do with all that

excess compute for the rest of the year

that's yeah monetized so it seems like

no-brainer to say okay if we've got

millions and then tens of millions of

vehicles out there where the computers

are idle most of the time that we might

as well have them do something useful

yeah exactly and that if you get to 100

million vehicle level which I think we

will at some point get to then and

you've got a kilowatt of usable compute

and maybe you're on Hardware 6 or seven

by that time then you really I think you

have on the order of 100 gaw of usable

compute which might be more than anyone

more than any company probably more than

any company like technically like apple

would have the most amount of

distributed computer but you can't use

it because you can't get the you can't

just run the phone at full power and

drain the battery yep so whereas for the

car even if you're a kilowatt level

referance computer which is crazy power

compared to a phone if you've got a 50

or 60 Kow hour pack it's still not a big

deal to run your plug with your plug in

or not plugged in or not plugged in you

could run for 10 hours and use 10

kilowatt hours with your kilowatt of

compute forever yeah got buil in liquid

cool thermal management yeah exactly for

data centers it's already there in the

car exactly so it's distributed power

generation just distributed access to

power and distributed Cooling and it's

already paid for looking at the the 4680

ramp can talk about how close you are to

Target yields and when you might start

to accelerate we're making good progress

on that but I I don't think it's super

important for at least in near term as

as L said we think it will be exceed the

competitiveness of suppliers by the end

of this year and then we will continue

to improve it a big part of the

4680 T during interal sales was a hedge

against how what would happen with our

suppliers because for a while there it

was very difficult because every big car

maker put in massive battery orders and

so the prices the per kilow hour of of

batter of lithium batteries went to

crazy numbers crazy levels Bonkers just

Bonkers okay we've got to have some

hedge here to deal with cost per kilow

hours numbers that would double what we

anticipated if we have internal cell

production then we have that hge against

demand shocks with too much demand so

that's really the way to think about

it's not like we want to take on a whole

bunch of problems that just for the hell

of it we we we did this s program in

order to address the crazy increase in

cost per kilow hour from our suppliers

due to gigantic orders placed by every

car maker on Earth and once again would

just like to strongly recommend that

anyone who is thinking about the Tesla

stock should really Drive FSD 12.3 You'

really you you you can't it's impossible

to understand the company if you do not

do this you mentioned that autoc cogs

per unit for the nextg vehicle would

decline by 50% versus the current 3 and

Y on that topic of 4680 cells I I I know

you know you mentioned it you really

thought of it more as like a hedge

against against Rising battery cost from

other OEM what seems to be happening is

that the unless I'm missing something

the orders for batteries from other

order makers have declined dramatically

so we're seeing much more competitive

prices for sales from our suppliers

dramatically more competitive than in

the past it is clear that a lot of our

suppliers have excess capacity yeah now

this is going to wax and Wayne obviously

there's going to be a boom and bust in

in battery cell production you know

where production exceeds Supply and then

Supply exceeds production and back and

forth I know DRM or something but it's

like what is true today will not be true

in in the future there's going to be

somewhat of a boom and bus cycle here

and then there are additional

complications by with govern incentives

like the inflation reduction act the IRS

always found like a funny name for

comical name yeah is it like the Irish

Republican Army the internet research

agency from Russia independent

retirement account yeah exactly Roth IRA

has Force FID man situations which which

Ira wins ises complicate the incentive

structure so that there's there there is

perhaps a stronger demand for cells that

are produced in the US than outside the

US but then how long does the

IRA I don't know