Is war between China and the US inevitable? | Graham Allison

Summary

The speaker discusses the rise of China as the most significant international challenge of our time, comparing it to historical power shifts like that of Athens and Sparta. The rapid growth of China's economy and global influence is creating tensions with the United States, the current global leader. Drawing from Thucydides' analysis of rising and ruling powers, the speaker highlights the risk of conflict. However, they emphasize the need for creative solutions to avoid war and manage this power shift peacefully, invoking the post-WWII international order as an example of bold, imaginative leadership.

Takeaways

• 🌍 The rise of China is the biggest international challenge the world will face for the foreseeable future.
• 📈 China's growth is unprecedented, lifting millions out of poverty and rapidly challenging the U.S. as a global superpower.
• ⚔️ Historically, when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, 12 out of 16 cases have resulted in war, according to a review of the past 500 years.
• 🧠 The 'Thucydides Trap' describes the dynamic where fear and competition between a rising power (like China) and a ruling power (like the U.S.) can lead to conflict.
• 🏛️ The speaker introduces Thucydides, an ancient Greek historian, whose insights about the rise of Athens and the reaction of Sparta are applicable to modern-day U.S.-China relations.
• 🚧 China's rapid infrastructure development, such as the Sanyuan Bridge renovation in 43 hours, starkly contrasts with the slower processes in the U.S.
• 🇨🇳 Chinese President Xi Jinping has set ambitious goals for China, aiming for global dominance in technology by 2025 and unambiguous leadership by 2049.
• 💡 The speaker warns that without bold, imaginative solutions, the U.S. and China may follow historical patterns toward catastrophic war.
• 📜 History provides lessons, such as the post-WWII creation of the international order, where unconventional ideas led to peace and prosperity.
• 💭 The speaker calls for creative, out-of-the-box thinking to avoid repeating historical mistakes and to manage the U.S.-China rivalry peacefully.

Q & A

What is the biggest international story of the speaker's professional lifetime?

The rise of China is described as the biggest international story of the speaker's professional lifetime and the most important international challenge the world will face for the foreseeable future.

How does the speaker describe the challenge posed by China's rise?

The challenge is the impact of China's rise on the United States and the international order, which the US has been the principal architect and guardian of for the past century.

What historical comparison does the speaker use to explain the US-China rivalry?

The speaker refers to the past 500 years, where there have been 16 cases of rising powers threatening to displace ruling powers. In 12 of these cases, the rivalry ended in war, such as Athens versus Sparta or Germany versus Britain before World War I.

How has China's economy changed over the last 40 years?

In 1978, 90% of China's one billion citizens were living on less than two dollars a day. By 2018, fewer than 1% of China's population remained under that poverty threshold, marking a rapid economic transformation.

What is 'Thucydides’s Trap' and how does it relate to the US-China relationship?

'Thucydides’s Trap' is a term coined by the speaker to describe the dangerous dynamic when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, potentially leading to conflict. The US-China relationship is seen as an example of this trap, similar to Athens and Sparta.

Who is Thucydides, and why is he relevant to the speaker's argument?

Thucydides was an ancient Greek historian who wrote about the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta. He observed that the rise of Athens and the fear it instilled in Sparta made war inevitable. This dynamic, known as 'Thucydides’s Trap,' is used by the speaker to explain the current tensions between the US and China.

What are China's strategic goals according to President Xi Jinping?

China's strategic goals include becoming the dominant power in key technologies by 2025, the global innovation leader by 2035, and achieving unambiguous global leadership, including military dominance, by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China.

What historical examples does the speaker use to illustrate the danger of rivalries between rising and ruling powers?

The speaker uses examples like World War I, where the rise of Germany threatened British dominance, and the conflict was sparked by the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand. The speaker argues that similarly, small provocations today, such as actions by North Korea, could spark larger conflicts.

How does the speaker describe the economic shift between the US and China?

In 2004, China's economy was half the size of the US's. By 2014, the economies were equal, and by 2024, China's economy is projected to be 50% larger than the US economy. This shift creates tension as China challenges American economic leadership.

What solutions does the speaker propose to avoid conflict between the US and China?

The speaker calls for creative, out-of-the-box thinking to find ways to manage the rivalry without resorting to war. He points to the post-World War II order, where international institutions like the UN and NATO were created through imaginative efforts, as an example of how countries can work together for peace.