Trading When a Market Is in a Bear Channel | Al Brooks
Summary
TLDREl transcripto describe diferentes tipos de canales de tendencia alcista y bajista en el mercado de valores, destacando las estrategias de trading en cada escenario. Se discuten las señales de entrada y salida, y cómo utilizar las tendencias y la media móvil para tomar decisiones de trading. Además, se aborda la importancia de la disciplina y la gestión de riesgos en la toma de decisiones de inversión.
Takeaways
- 📉 Una tendencia bajista (bear channel) se caracteriza por una serie de puntos máximos más bajos y puntos mínimos más bajos.
- 🔍 Para identificar un canal bajista, es importante observar si los puntos máximos y mínimos están formando una tendencia descendente desde la parte superior izquierda hacia la parte inferior derecha del gráfico.
- 📊 Los breakouts en una tendencia bajista pueden ser grandes y conspicuous o pequeños y sutiles, pero ambos representan un momento en el que los compradores (bulls) se retiran y los vendedores (bears) toman el control.
- 🛑 Una vez que se rompe un breakout, se considera el final de la fase de breakout y comienza la fase de canal.
- 📉 En un canal bajista, se esperan pullbacks (retratos) donde el precio se eleva temporalmente, pero no se espera que dure demasiado tiempo.
- 📈 Las entradas al mercado en una tendencia bajista suelen ser más rentables cuando se venden en lugar de comprar, especialmente si la mayoría de las barras están por debajo de la media móvil.
- 🔄 Los traders pueden expectativas de una continuación de la tendencia bajista, buscando oportunidades de venta después de barras bajistas cerradas cerca de sus mínimos.
- 🤔 En un mercado en tendencia bajista, es común ver intentos de rally (alza) que fallan alrededor de la media móvil, ofreciendo oportunidades de venta.
- 📊 En un canal bajista estrecho, los traders deberían estar al tanto de las oportunidades de venta, ya que es una señal de una tendencia bajista fuerte.
- 📉 La venta en un canal bajista se enfoca en colocar órdenes de venta (stop orders) por debajo de las barras bajistas, buscando beneficios de la continuación de la tendencia bajista.
Q & A
¿Qué es un canal de tendencia bajista y cómo se define?
-Un canal de tendencia bajista es una serie de puntos máximos y mínimos crecientes hacia abajo. No es necesario que cada punto máximo sea menor que el anterior, ni cada punto mínimo sea menor, pero en general, los puntos máximos y mínimos se desplazan hacia la parte inferior derecha y la mayoría de los puntos máximos son más bajos.
¿Cuáles son los tipos de canales de tendencia bajista mencionados en el script?
-Los tipos de canales de tendencia bajista mencionados son: el canal de tendencia bajista muy estrecho (micro canal), el canal de tendencia bajista con pequeñas correcciones, el canal de tendencia bajista ordinario y el canal de tendencia bajista amplio.
¿Qué sucede cuando el mercado se encuentra en un canal de tendencia bajista muy estrecho?
-En un canal de tendencia bajista muy estrecho, también conocido como micro canal, los pullbacks son nulos o inexistentes y se produce una serie de puntos máximos y mínimos cada vez más bajos. Se espera que la tendencia continúe bajista y es más fácil ganar dinero vendiendo en lugar de comprando.
¿Cómo se identifica un buen punto de entrada para vender en un canal de tendencia bajista?
-Un buen punto de entrada para vender en un canal de tendencia bajista es en una barra bajista que se cierra en o cerca de su mínimo. Es razonable vender en una parada de una tick por debajo de esa barra bajista.
¿Qué es un breakout y cómo se relaciona con el inicio de un canal de tendencia bajista?
-Un breakout es un movimiento del precio que rompe por encima de un nivel de resistencia o por debajo de un nivel de soporte. El inicio de un canal de tendencia bajista generalmente comienza con un breakout bajista, que representa a los toros dándose por vencidos y decidiendo que el precio es demasiado alto para seguir comprando.
¿Qué se puede esperar al final de un canal de tendencia bajista?
-Al final de un canal de tendencia bajista, es común esperar una inversión de tendencia o un cambio a un rango de trading. El 75% de las veces, se espera un rompimiento por encima de la línea de tendencia bajista y una transición a un rango de trading.
¿Qué es un canal de tendencia bajista amplio y cómo se diferencia de un rango de trading?
-Un canal de tendencia bajista amplio es uno donde las correcciones se extienden casi hasta el punto máximo anterior o cerca de él, lo que hace que parezca un rango de trading inclinado hacia abajo. La principal diferencia con un rango de trading es que en un canal de tendencia bajista amplio, las rallys tienden a fallar alrededor del promedio móvil y el mercado vuelve a su tendencia bajista.
¿Cómo se pueden obtener ganancias en un canal de tendencia bajista ordinario?
-En un canal de tendencia bajista ordinario, se puede obtener ganancias vendiendo durante las rallys que se acercan al promedio móvil y también comprando en反转 de rallys desde nuevos mínimos, esperando que el mercado falle cerca del promedio móvil.
¿Qué sucede cuando un canal de tendencia bajista rompe por debajo de su fondo?
-Cuando un canal de tendencia bajista rompe por debajo de su fondo, hay un 75% de probabilidad de que la breakout falle y el mercado se reversa hacia arriba. Esto significa que en un 75% de los casos, se puede esperar una inversión de la tendencia bajista y un retorno a un patrón de trading.
¿Qué es un patrón de escalinata en un canal de tendencia bajista y cómo se identifica?
-Un patrón de escalinata en un canal de tendencia bajista es cuando hay una serie de rallys que no superan el punto de breakout previo y luego se revierten hacia abajo. Esto indica que los compradores con órdenes de límite pueden estar ganando dinero, lo que hace que el patrón sea más fuerte y probablemente continúe la tendencia bajista.
¿Cómo se pueden manejar las entradas y salidas en un canal de tendencia bajista?
-En un canal de tendencia bajista, se pueden manejar las entradas y salidas vendiendo en paradas o limitando las órdenes de venta en el nivel de la barra bajista o en el promedio móvil. Para salir, se puede salir por encima de una barra de compra o en un cierto número de tics por encima de una barra bajista, asegurándose de no arriesgarse demasiado si la barra de compra se convierte en una gran barra de compra.
Outlines
📉 Introducción a los canales de trading y definiciones
Se introduce el tema de los canales de trading, específicamente el canal bear (tendencia bajista). Se definen términos como 'mejor canal', 'trading ranges' y diferentes variaciones de canales. Se discute cómo identificar una tendencia bajista y las características de un 'breakout bear' (ruptura bajista). Además, se menciona la importancia de los 'pullbacks' (retratos) y cómo se pueden interpretar para predecir el comportamiento futuro del mercado.
📉 Estrategias de trading en un canal bear
Se profundiza en las estrategias de trading dentro de un canal bear, destacando la facilidad para ganar dinero vendiendo en lugar de comprando. Se abordan situaciones especiales como 'inside bars' (barras interiores) y cómo se pueden utilizar para tomar decisiones de trading. También se discuten patrones como 'spike and channel' (pico y canal) y cómo los traders pueden esperar ciertos comportamientos del mercado para maximizar sus ganancias.
📉 Análisis de la probabilidad en los canales bear
Se analiza la probabilidad en diferentes tipos de canales bear, como 'breakouts' (rupturas) y 'pullbacks' (retratos). Se discute cómo interpretar los movimientos del mercado para prever posibles inversiones de tendencia. Se enfatiza la importancia de las acciones de los traders limit order y cómo estas pueden influir en la continuidad o interrupción de una tendencia bajista.
📉 Diferentes tipos de canales bear y estrategias
Se describen cuatro tipos de canales bear: micro canales, canales bear de pequeña retroceso, canales bear ordinarios y canales bear amplios. Cada uno tiene características únicas que se deben considerar al establecer estrategias de trading. Se discute cómo adaptar la estrategia en función de las condiciones del mercado y cómo los traders pueden beneficiarse de la venta y la compra dentro de estos canales.
📉 Ventajas y desafíos en diferentes canales bear
Se exploran las ventajas y desafíos de operar en diferentes tipos de canales bear. Se mencionan situaciones en las que es más fácil ganar dinero vendiendo, y otras en las que comprar puede ser igual de rentable. Se habla sobre cómo identificar señales de inversión y cómo manejar el riesgo en función del comportamiento del mercado.
📉 Consideraciones finales y preguntas sobre los canales bear
Se presentan reflexiones finales sobre la naturaleza de los canales bear y cómo los traders pueden aprovecharlos para su beneficio. Se hace hincapié en la importancia de la disciplina y la paciencia en el trading. Además, se aborda la idea de que los traders suelen ser más exitosos cuando siguen las tendencias del mercado en lugar de intentar predecir sus movimientos.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Canal de tendencia bajista
💡Salto y canal de tendencia bajista
💡Pullback
💡Zona de profit taking
💡Stop loss
💡Máquina de trading
💡Tendencia del mercado
💡Cerrado en los niveles más bajos
💡Movimiento promedio móvil
💡Revisión al alza
💡Riesgo de gestión
Highlights
Definition of a bear channel as a series of lower highs and lower lows.
Explanation of how a bear breakout represents bulls giving up and bears taking control.
Discussion on the importance of pullbacks and how they signify the end of the breakout phase and the beginning of the channel phase.
Identification of different types of bear channels: tight channels, small pullback bear trends, and broad bear channels.
Explanation of trading strategies within a bear channel, focusing on selling as the market moves down.
Use of moving averages in determining entry points for selling in a bear channel.
Description of how to manage stop losses and take profits in a bear channel.
Discussion on the characteristics of a micro channel, which is the strongest type of bear trend.
Analysis of small pullback bear trends and their trading implications.
Explanation of trading in a broad bear channel, which is essentially a trading range tilted down.
Importance of recognizing when a bear channel may transition into a trading range.
Discussion on the psychology of trading in a bear channel and the tendency of the market to look strongest before reversing down.
Explanation of how to identify and trade in a stair-stepping down pattern within a bear channel.
Discussion on the potential for profit-taking and trend reversal in a bear channel with lots of two-sided trading.
Identification of key reversal patterns such as double tops and wedges within a bear channel.
Advice on managing trades and emotions when the market presents confusing signals in a trading range.
Transcripts
I'm going to be talking about trading
when the market is in a beer channel it
was just which happens a lot I'll first
define what I mean by a better channel
and then I'll talk about ordinary common
types of beer channels and then there
are different variations of their
channels one where the channel is
especially tight basically a small
pullback bear trend where the pull backs
are very small very brief and the market
keeps trending down and then broad bear
channels which are basically trading
ranges that are tilted somewhat done
alright so I'll start with what is a
bear Channel and it's a series of lower
highs and lower lows and not every high
is necessarily going to be lower and not
every low is going to necessarily be
lower at either but as long as overall
it's starting in the upper left and
going down to the lower right and it's
mostly lower highs and lower lows it's a
bear channel and every bear trend begins
with some kind of a bear breakout
sometimes the breakout bar is relatively
big conspicuous like this and sometimes
it's very small and that bear breakout
represents bulls giving up Bulls
deciding that the price is too high they
better get out and look to buy back
lower and it's also bears selling
aggressively every trend bar I see on
the screen I think of as a breakout but
I typically reserve the term breakout
for trend bars that have a reasonable
chance of leading to a trend and a
breakout it can be a single bar it could
be two bars there could be many bars I
just want to see some bars that are big
relative to the prior bars and I want to
see bars closing near their lows here we
have two bare bars and it's right on the
open it's a bear trend from the open and
the second part is surprisingly big and
whenever you see something that is
surprisingly big you have to expect at
least some follow-through
some second-leg sometimes it's just a
single bar like this sometimes you get
more of a pullback and sometimes you get
a second like a third leg and it just
keeps trending down all day but when I
see a bear surprise I expect at least a
small second leg down and trends usually
begin with surprises this is the
breakout here it's - bear - bear bars it
could be one bar and as soon as I see a
bar go above the high of the prior bar
the breakout phase has ended and that is
a pullback so the pullback simply means
a bar goes above the high of the fire
bar sometimes it can last two or three
bars
sometimes the pullback can be four or
five bars but once you get a pullback
the breakout phase has ended and the
trend has become weaker and now it's in
a channel face and the channel can last
a few bars they can have a big pullback
breaking about the bear trend line and
form a bigger channel that can last all
days every bear channel is some type of
spike and channel pattern here we have a
spike and a wedge bottom yet it
continued down into a much bigger
channel and a channel typically has at
least three pushes down one to three so
a channel wedge usually I use the term
synonymously when you
some kind of a wedge three pushes down
in a channel it typically begins to
attract some profit taking and that's
when that was this is an example and
sometimes the profit taking is enough to
reverse the trend
sometimes the profit taking has a couple
legs and then the trend resumes I don't
have the bear trend line drawing in but
we broke above the bear trendline yet we
could not get a both prior lower highs
and the reversal was minor and it became
a airflight alright so when the markets
in a bear channel there it's a bear
trend and it's a lot easier to make
money selling than it is flying
especially if most of the bars have
below the moving average and you see it
keep trying to get above the average
price and when people start to think
that the average price is expensive and
they keep selling at the moving average
doesn't matter if you get strong rallies
for the moving average if you see it
constantly failing at the average price
you have to assume it's gonna be a lot
easier making money selling these red
boxes are reasonable entry places for
example if you get a reversal up area of
a bull bar and then you get a bear bar
closing on or near its low it's
reasonable to sell on a stop below that
bear bar here we have another reversal
up and another bear bar closing on or
near its low you sell on a stop one tick
below that bar here we have three bull
bars the bodies are increasing in size
so the momentum is picking up yet what
happened as soon as it got to the
average price the body started to shrink
and then you get a bear bar closing near
its low another sell if you place a stop
to go short right below that bear bar
and you just keep doing that all day
long as long as you keep seeing bear
bars closing on or near their lows this
is a special circumstance an inside bar
another small bar at the moving average
I would sell that but you could sell blo
that bear bar with this bear mark and
you can just do keep doing it all day
long you can take profits at the prior
load or you can take profits after it
makes it in low and then reverses up you
exited on the bull bar if you
take this cell you could put a stop here
or you could put a stop up there if you
take this cell you could put a stop here
you take these stops
if you enter on these stops you have a
double top here flag I'd put a stop that
or above that and then you just take
profits on a reversal back up where you
simply hold all day and after each new
pull back and each new low you just
tighten your stop I typically get out
above a bull bar so if we make a new low
and I think the day is in a better
channel this green box is a buy in that
particular circumstance you could buy
for a scalp but at a minimum if I were
short I would get out we have a bull
inside bar it's a actually an outside
bar inside bar so it's an IO eye pattern
you're probably going to get a couple
small legs up here one pullback and then
two if you're buying in a beer channel
in a channel it's tight like this the
reversal is probably going to be minor
and lead to either a trading range or a
bear flag and not a bull trend so if
you're buying in a bear channel you're
buying for a scalp you're just looking
for a quick profit maybe a point or two
maybe a test of the moving average
our things to look at on a chart they
tell you that it's mostly better only to
look to sell you know for example here
where do you see all the bars are below
the moving average that means you have
to expect the market is going to keep
working lower and therefore it's going
to be easier to make money selling and
then you get pullbacks that are racing
up to the moving average but they're
stopping at or around the moving average
and the markets starting to resume down
again and then pull backs do not last
very long here we weren't up for a
couple bars here for a couple bars here
for three or four bars and then you look
at the bull bars how big are the bull
bars how many consecutive bull bars are
you getting are you getting bull bars
closing any of their highs are you
getting bull bars breaking about the
moving average are you getting two or
more bull bars breaking above the moving
average here we have a pair of pretty
good bull bars one bar closing above the
moving average but that's it you don't
get consecutive bull bars closing above
the moving average and then you look at
it and say okay if I take a stop entry
by most of the time I'm losing money if
I buy above this bull bar I lose money I
buy above this it's hard to make money
if I buy here possible bull flag
possible bull friend possible higher low
major trend reversal overall bull flag
very hard to make money so if most of
the stop entry buy signals are losers
that tells you that it's a lot it's
going to be a lot easier to make money
looking to sell and then in a very
strong trend I'm looking at whether or
not pull backs go above breakout points
and if the pull backs do not go above
the breakout points then traders buying
with limit orders cannot make money and
that means it's a very strong bear trend
okay if
pullbacks a big so here we have a
breakout we have a big trend bar we have
a new low so it's a breakout here's the
breakout point it broke below something
it broke all of this and at some point
you're going to get a pullback does the
pullback go above the breakout point
that's a really important point if it
does that tells you that some bull who
had a limit order to buy it this low
he gets filled here he uses a wide stop
and he buys more lower he made money so
he bought at this low he bought more
lower and then it got back to the
breakout point his original buy he could
get out break-even on his first buy and
with a profit on his lower body so that
tells you that limit order Bulls Bulls
off making bills Bulls buying with limit
orders at prior lows and blows are
making money I call that a stairs type
of pattern and when you're in a stairs
type of bear channel Bulls can make
money in addition to bears making money
but it's still easier to make money as a
bear plus the profit that you make as a
bear is bigger than the profit that you
make is a bull
another example we have a breakout here
to a new low so this is the breakout
point the market pulled back and it went
above the breakout point and therefore
limit order Bulls once Bulls start to
see pull backs going about breakout
points a pullback going above breakout
points you'll get limit order Bulls
buying below lows confident that even if
the breakout is strong it'll come back
above that breakout point and they can
make money if they take the bite and
scale and lower all right so some
by at the prior load they buying more
lower maybe a point lower maybe two
points lower buy more again confident
that if went about breakout points here
and here it'll probably do the same here
and then they can get our breakeven on
their first buy and with a profit on
their lower buys a series of bear bars
so it's a breakout is this a pullback
all in this timeframe it's not and then
on this time frame it's a pause remember
a pullback means the next bar goes the
above the high of that bar so to me this
is a pause and this is a breakout and
the breakout face ended when this bar
went above the high of that bar so this
is the end of the breakout right here
and when the breakout phase ends the
channel phase begins so we have a spike
down a bear breakout and a pullback and
now we're probably in a channel channels
typically break to the upside bear
channels typically break to the upside
every time I see a bear channel I think
of it as a bull flag because 75% of the
time you're going to get a break above
the channel and then a transition into a
trading range so typically you get a
strong friend a breakout a channel and
then a break above the channel and then
a transition into a trading range okay
so I said this is a pause and not a
pullback on a smaller time frame chart
that might be pulled back but on this
chart it's just a pause in the breakout
and the breakout is continuing and then
once a bar it goes above the high of the
part of our you have a pullback couple
legs up one pull back to and now we have
a Big Bear bar so we're probably
beginning a channel down traders will
start to look to sell as I said 75% of
the time you'll eventually get a break
above the bull of the bear trend line
and a conversion into a trading range
and then you start trading it like a
trading range
sometimes you have a beer channel and
instead of breaking above the channel
you break below the channel so you break
below the bottom of the channel and when
that happens 75% chance within five bars
it's going to reverse back up so only
rarely to have a barre channel that
breaks below and you continue down into
a stronger bear trend 75% chance it's
going to reverse off you still keep
selling below bear bars closing on or
near their lows and put you exit above
the bull bar another way to exit is a
certain number of ticks above a bear bar
four or five ticks above a bear bar just
in case this bull bar becomes a huge
bull bar you don't want to be risking
too much so America crashed down
reversed up and odds are you're going to
get at least a small second leg up after
a bull breakout a bull breakout bull
reversals you'll probably get at least a
small second leg up here's a beer
channel it's a small pullback bear trend
and we're breaking below the bottom of
the channel 75% chance the breakout is
going to fail and the market is going to
reverse up that means 25% chance the
breakouts not going to fail and it's not
going to reverse up so 25% of the time
you'll get a break up a lower Bear
Channel and it begins the process over
again so instead of a bear channel and
then a transition into a trading range
you get a bear channel and then another
breakout phase and then you're back into
a breakout and Bear channel on a
situation bear bar we've got a breakout
bar you can sell below the low of the
bar sell below the low of the bar you're
getting bear bars closing on or near
their lows it's reasonable to sell on a
stop one tick below the low of the bars
here we're going to pull back and then a
vert bar closing near its low every time
you see a bear bar closing on or near
its low it's a reasonable short one tick
below the bar and you don't have to take
every one of these shorts alright a lot
of times it happens quickly and you
don't expect it when you see this
breakout you're thinking well al says
75% chances
going to reverse up maybe I shouldn't
sell you know it's reasonable to take
the sell and then if you get the
reversal get out because sometimes
you'll get a big trend down and after
three or four bear bars if you're still
flat you're thinking oh my gosh I'm you
know I'm missing something what do i do
how do I get in what you do is you
simply place in order to go a short one
tick below any bear bar you could wait
for a pullback and then start but when
you're in a strong bear trend like that
you have to get short and the easiest
way to do it is wait for a bear bar
closing near its low and then enter on a
stop one tick below the bear bar their
channel three legs down one two three
and a pretty good-looking bull bar late
and a bear trend you're probably going
to get some profit taking late in the
day so I would get out of shorts above
that bull bar and in fact I personally
would buy looking for at least a couple
legs up some profit taking at least to
the moving average now four types of
channels and that there's there are some
subtle differences here between this
channel and this channel I don't know if
you can see the difference in this
channel we have bull bars but no bar
goes above the high of the prior bar so
I call that a micro channel and it looks
similar to this but it's not it's
different this is a micro channel there
are no pull backs and on the next higher
time frame chart let's say this is a
5-minute chart if you look at a
15-minute chart or a 30-minute chart you
don't have any bull bars it's just a
series of bear bars so a micro channel
is the strongest type of bear trend and
you only want to sell and the next
strongest type of bear trend is this
it's a small pullback bear trend the
pull backs are small one or two bars and
you keep making new lows and the pull
backs do not go up very far so they're
small and they're brief and whenever you
see the market looking like this don't
buy you only want to sell so a micro
channel you only sell a small pullback
bear
friend you only want to sell and on a
higher time frame this is going to be a
breakout as well it'll just be a series
of beer bars if this is a five-minute
start and you were to look at a
15-minute chart or a 30-minute chart or
a 60-minute chart you wouldn't see any
bull bars you just see a series of beer
bars closing on or near their lows and
you know if the next higher time frame
is a strong breakout on this time frame
you don't want to be buying and this is
a common type of bear channel where you
have pretty good bull bars pull backs
lasting more bars five bars sometimes
more you have the market going sideways
for extended periods of time it's good
to sell reversals down from the moving
average every time it rallies to near
the moving average you sell on a stop
below a bear bar however Bulls entering
with stops can make money as well
buying above this bull bar buying above
that bull bar they can make scalps so in
an ordinary type of bear channel yes you
keep selling but if you want you can
also buy above reasonable bull bars
reversing up from a new low but you're
buying for a scalp expecting the market
to fail at or around the moving average
limit order bulls they'll make money so
Bulls buying with a limit order at or
below the prior bar
they will make money here buying at this
low or below you'll make money because
you'd expect the pullback to come above
the breakout point so stop order Bulls
Bulls buying with stops limit order
Bulls Bulls buying with limit orders are
making money and that is common in a
bear channel the common type of bear
channel easier to make money selling but
you can start to make money buying as
well buying for scalps and then a broad
bear channel when you look at it at this
point is it a bear Channel well it has
lower highs is it a trading range
yes it's clearly sideways is it a bull
friend it might be we have a higher low
and this highs above that high so it
might also be a bull trend and whenever
you see a channel that is very broad
where the rallies
go almost all the way up to the prior
high it's basically a trade training
range that is tilted down and when the
markets on a trading range I'm looking
to scalp I want to buy blow I want to
sell high and I scalp you can say wow
it's a bear trend don't you don't only
want to sell well when you look at it at
this point in the day right here at this
point in the day you wouldn't be calling
it a bear Channel you'd be calling it a
trading range and if the market is in
the trading range I want to buy and sell
and I'm going to be scalping most of the
bars below the moving average through
here easier to make money selling but
now we're starting to get a lot of bars
above the moving average you will get
bulls flying
alright beer channel you go to spike
down and then a channel you have a
pullback in a channel you sell rallies
any time it gets near the moving average
you look to sell below a beer bar
closing there it's low especially if you
have a second sell signal here's a first
sell and we have a bear inside bar and
then the second sell another a small
double top this would be a second sell
another double top I know you can look
at this and say Alice on a double top
it's a double top this was an attempt to
get above that and it reversed down a
second time a lot of times double tops
are not perfect and the second high can
be pretty far below the first time it
can be above the first time but it's
still a double top and we're mostly
below the moving average you want to be
selling below beer bars closing there
lows another double top this hike went a
little above that high but it was simply
a test of this high and traders who look
to sell you could sell below the outside
down bar or you could wait for a second
sell here here we have a bear inside bar
closing there it's low we're still near
the moving average we're still in a bear
trend cell below bear bars here you
could sell blow this beer bar and take a
chance that we go further down and
sometimes it doesn't
you simply get out one tick above a bull
bar or if you want you could get get out
four or five ticks above the bear bar
and then look for the next cell
all right so we went to a new low here
but we went above the breakout point new
low here what about the breakout point
so we're stair stepping down pull backs
are going about breakout points and when
that's the case Bulls will buy reversals
up looking for a scalp so maybe you buy
above this and try to get a one-point
scalp to the moving average here we got
a second reversal here's the first and
then another pullback and then a second
a reasonable buy even though the bull
bars are not big we're stair stepping
down every time it goes to a new low at
rallies new low and rallies so you'd
expect a rally you might not want to buy
the first reversal appear after four
bear bars so you might not buy above
this but this is a second attempt to
reverse up so it's a reasonable buy
sometimes way
just grow and become bigger and this
became a bigger wedge so we had a wedge
here we had a wedge here and now we have
one two three a bigger wedge so nested
wedges that's a higher probability that
we'll get some kind of reversal up
another wedge here one to pause three so
we're probably going to get a couple
legs up reasonable to buy so even though
it's a bear channel traders can buy as
well as sell now I said bears will sell
when it gets up to the moving average
and reverses down lower highs lower lows
bear trend the mayor's they do not have
to buy back their shorts at a new low
they can continue to hold and just keep
tightening lowering their stops so if
you sell here you could put a stop up
there a new low here you could hold
short and put a stop above the prior
high that's a major high and as long as
it keeps holding below the prior major
heist the highs that led to new lows
it's a bear channel so you know trader
might sell for any reason here and just
hold short and put a stop up here once
it gets a new low you know lower the
stop so you can swing trade when I see
lots of reversals like this I tend to
scalp I tend to sell it gets a new low
I'm take my profits and if you get a
reversal up from a new low I tend to buy
so I tend to you know sell and buy and
sell and sell and then buy it again
alright so here we have a breakout we
have a series of beer Morris we have
four bear bars here we have seven bear
bars in the past nine bars beer bodies
it's a breakout but it's not a very
strong one we have one beer bar and then
a bull bar we have two bare bars they're
not big and then we have a bull bar we
have two bull bars here but tails below
we have a bear bar here but
follow-through is a bull bar so it's a
breakout but it's a weak beer break on
it still could be the sort of a bear
trend compare that beer break out to
this beer break
and what do you see you see no bull bars
you see boulevards closing very close to
their logos you see beer bars getting
bigger in size body bigger body bigger
you see beer bars closing on their lows
or near their lows this is a much
stronger beer breakout and it's more
likely to be leading to a bear trend for
the rest of the day sell below a beer
bar or you can wait until we're getting
it clearly a series of lower highs and
lower lows and once you see that you
have to bet it's going to go lower and I
might go lower all day any time you get
a reversal up you have to get you got to
bet the reversal is going to fail and
we're going to get a new low so you get
a reversal up you see a bear bar closing
on or near its low you sell you sell you
just keep selling blue bear bars
reversing down now you have a very
strong bear breakout and you're getting
lower highs lower lows or in the beer
trend what happens when you see a bull
bar trying to break to the upside do you
think do you think that bull bar is the
start of a bull trend what do you think
that's probably going to fail right
every time you buy somebody else's
selling right so that means when you see
a bull bar like this closing on its high
somebody's buying and somebody's selling
which one do you think is going to make
money the Bears are going to make money
and therefore if I see a bear trend like
this and I see a bull bar with a good
sized body closing on or near its high
at the moving average what am I going to
do I'm gonna sell alright so here we
have a very good bull bar another very
good bull bar another very good bull bar
am I'm gonna be selling them so as soon
as those bars close I'm gonna either
sell at the market I'm going to place a
limit order to sell at the close of the
bars it's counterintuitive you see a
bull bar and if you know hoping that the
Bulls are going to win but they're not
they're gonna lose so you know here you
get bull bars they're good selling
opportunities you know you're not
getting consecutive big bull bars
closing above the moving average you're
getting weak attempts to get above the
moving average so another way to enter
is in addition to selling with stops
below bear bars you can sell the
of bull bars at or just below the moving
average another thing to do is traders
are going to see the average price as
expensive the Bulls have bought don't
they're not expecting a bold friend and
they're going to be trying to exit
around the average price because they're
expecting the average is going to keep
getting lower and the Bears think that
the average price is expensive so the
Bears will sell around the average price
as well so another way to get short is
you simply place a limit order to sell
at the moving average or maybe a tick
below the moving average in case it it
doesn't quite get to the moving average
or doesn't quite get above the moving
average so it's a third way to sell in a
bear Channel gaps are closing we have a
breakout and that means it broke out of
something look to the left eye it broke
a little this and then we have a
pullback and the pullback went above the
breakout point even though it's a very
strong breakout the pullback went above
the breakout point all right what does
that tell you it tells you that a bull
who placed a limit order to buy at this
low
he got filled here if he was willing to
buy more a point or to lower and use a
wide stop was he was able to make money
so he takes the buy there he buys more
down here it gets back to his entry
price yes it immediately sold off
because all the Bulls were happy to get
out break even the Bulls have bought
over here but if he bought more lower he
made money here we have a breakout
series of beer bars it broke out of
something it broke below this looked to
the left and then look at the pullback
it went above the breakout point and
that happened all day long and therefore
the gaps are closing the gap between
this closed and the breakout point it
closed so Bulls see that and bulls are
buying at prior lows and lower and
making money so the Bulls will scalp for
example the buy and then the scale in
and buy more or lower by one point lower
two points lower by at the prior low and
buy more one point lower by the prior
low buy more one point lower by more one
point lower
two points lower confident that there
will be a pullback that will go above
the breakout point and that will allow
them to get out break even on their
first buy and with a profit on your
lower vice so in the exit on these blue
rectangles once it bounces back to the
breakout point so when you're in a beer
channel that is stair stepping down pull
backs going about breakout points you
can buy and make money even when the
sell offs look very strong so that's
another way to make money in a better
Channel
the pull backs are relatively small and
if the pullback is going to be small one
bar the Bulls cannot make much money but
they can make money so if you want you
can buy prior lows and scale and lower
and scout for money a lot of times if
you have a lot of two-sided trading a
lot of bull bars bull bars bull bars a
lot of reversal attempts and it's Ann
Arbor channel it will get some profit
taking late in the day the final our
file on and a half bulls making money
betting that break house will pull back
above the break on point and plus you're
getting bad follow-through barabar doji
bear bar doji whenever you see that a
Big Bear bar doji bear bar bull bar
whenever you see that I mean see bad
follow-through and the way down and a
lot of prominent tails then indicates
that the self has a lot of buying going
on and therefore it's more likely to be
a bear leg and what will end up as a
trading range sometimes you do not get a
bull leg in the trading range until late
in the day but whenever I see this kind
of a sell-off with bad follow through
after the bear bars and a lot of bull
bars and then a lot of bars with
prominent tails that's a very two-sided
market and the odds are you're going to
get some profit taking and some
conversion to a trading range later in
the day you do not typically get that
but you do get some kind of a rally some
you know may be the opposite of this so
a weak sell-off and then a weak rally
sometimes you'll get very sharp profit
taking like that
we have a weak sell-off bear bars having
bad follow-through lots of bars with
prominent conspicuous tails you're
probably going to get profit-taking
so you have to be looking for a reversal
late in the day here we try to get a
wedge bull flag here we try to get a
wedge bottom here another wedge bottom
three consecutive attempts at a wedge
bottom usually you're going to get some
kind of a reversal so you're looking to
buy a reversal up by above a bull bar
closing on or near it's high breakout
far above the beta Channel it's now and
always in long market it's probably
going higher and a bear bar late in the
day like that I would get out of my
lungs below any beer bar so I'd get out
of lungs their type air channel okay
very tight not much overlap between the
bars pull backs are small this is what I
mentioned earlier that sometimes you get
a perfect double top sometimes you'll
get a double top where the second highs
a little bit higher a little bit lower
but we have a bear friend here a
reversal attempt a second reversal
attempt both failing around the same
price double top bear flag and you could
also call it a double top major trend
reversal lower high major trend reversal
we had a bull trend
who knows what took place yesterday but
we're above the moving average and we
have a reversal down and we have a
double top and it's a lower high so it's
a double top lower high major trend
reversal and if you have a situation
like this where you think you're in a
beer trend and you have a double top and
then you get a bear bar around that
double top as soon as you see a bear bar
something something math mathematically
interesting takes place there's a 40%
chance that if you sell below a bear bar
at a double top in a possible bear trend
that you're going to break below the
neckline of the double top we have a
double top neckline 40% chance you'll
fall below the neckline for about a
measure move down here and ended up
falling much lower
okay now our limit order Bulls making
much money here
by and below that low no it's it's a
very tight bear channel it's a small
pullback bear trend and ten bars here
we've had one pullback and it's only one
tick this is an extremely strong bear
trend and very it's impossible for both
me to make money if the Bulls cannot
make money you have to be short you have
to be you have to be you have to be
selling for any reason it's not a strong
bear trend in here but now we're
starting to get here we got four
consecutive bear more so we have a one
tick pullback we have six beer bars no
pull backs it's a small pullback beer
friend a very strong bear trend and
therefore you got to be selling again it
continued down for the rest of the day
the pull backs are all small they're all
brief here it went up for two bars not
very far one bar couldn't even go up
here right small pullback bear friend
it's a very tight beer channel you only
want to be selling anytime and how do
you get short you know you see it you
see it happening and say oh my gosh you
know I can't make money buying um I got
to get short how do I get short easiest
thing to do is look for a bear bar
especially a bear bar closing on or near
its low and then place a stop order to
go short one tick below the low of the
bear bar
you want to bet on trend resumption down
when the trend is really strong and
let's say you've just watched all of
this happen and you said it's a smooth
this is what alcohols a small pullback
bears friend it's going to go lower I
have to get short what do I do you know
you can just simply sell it the market
you know if you sell at the market here
you can put a stop above this couple
ticks above that stop above that just
sell at the market and if you're really
nervous you know go to Walmart and place
your order place you stop you know go
out for a walking and come back in a
half hour yeah I talk about that in my
chat room all the time that if you find
yourself unable to stay in a position
but your mind tells you that it's a it's
a good trade you know just go out and
come back in 30 minutes go out and do an
errand
you know go to Walmart do something I'm
sorry what
Costco anything you know just you just
get you just get away from your computer
because you know it's a small pullback
bear trend it's a breakout on a higher
time frame that it's going to trade
lower or at least an hour to more maybe
all day and you don't want to be scared
out here's a bear reversal we got a tail
on the bottom of the bar it's reversing
I gotta get out no you don't get out you
stay short okay
a small pullback bear trend now and you
may not get remember I talked about an
irregular bear channel how you sometimes
get big bull bars at the moving average
you know I can't hear ya this is true
for every time frame if you notice I
don't have prices on the right and I
don't have times on the bottom and it's
for that very reason that it doesn't
matter what chart you know what market
doesn't matter what time frame doesn't
matter it doesn't matter you know daily
chart weekly chart you know this is a 20
bar exponential moving average but you
don't have to use that you know I had a
friend I traded with online for years he
used a34 a34 bar weighted moving average
and and I said why using that he said
I've done all this testing and this is
perfect its current matter you use any
kind of moving average just you know
just get comfortable you just learn how
the market tends to behave around
whatever moving average you use alright
so I was saying that when you're in a
small pullback bears friend you're
probably not going to get a lot of big
bull bars closing near the moving
average you may not even get bull bars
touching the moving average for a long
time so those other ways of shorting
that I talked about in a regular bear
channel you don't get those
opportunities when you're in a small
pullback bear trend like this all right
so you have to have other things to do
one thing to do you sell below bear bars
like you do with any bear trend also you
buy above bars there seems to be a sell
above any bar right so anytime
bar closes you place a limit order to
sell at the height of the bar all right
it's a small pullback bear trend so the
pullback will be small it might last a
bar or two sometimes three but it's
going to be small and it probably is
only going to last one bar so as soon as
you think you're in a small pullback
bear trend you place a limit order to
sell at the high of the pirate bar
another bar place a limit order to sell
it the high of that bar betting that
it's only going to go up a bar or two
and the very trend is going to resume so
you can sell below Bear bars you can
sell at the market you can sell at the
high of the prior bar and if you see a
bull bar sell the close of the bull bar
I mean the next bar might not go above
the height of the bar here we have a
bull bar next bar did not go above the
high of that bull bar so you just sell
every bull clothes these are all ways to
get short broad bear channel when the
bear channel has pullbacks that go
pretty much all the way up to the prior
high or near the prior high and you're
looking at it and you're not sure is
that a trading range is it a bear
channel at the end of the day you look
at it and say huh
we have a bunch of lower highs this high
went above that high but not above these
highs and this low is a little bit below
that this is a little bit below that
this is a little bit below that at the
end of the day you look at it and it's a
bear Channel but during the day for most
of the day it's also a trading range and
when you have a trading range that is
kind of tilted down I trade it like a
trading range so I want to buy low I
want to sell high and I want to scalp
here we got a bull break a pair of
consecutive bull bars but look what
happened a lower high and at the moving
average and the next bar reversed okay
at that point am i thinking this is the
start of a bull trend or am I thinking
it's not a bull trend and if it's not a
bull trend you have two things left one
is a bear trend and the other is a
trading range but with this much of a
rally if it is a bear trend it's
probably not going to be a strong bear
trend so that leaves you with a broad
bear channel okay
so once it's probably going to be either
a bear trend abroad better channel or a
trading range you start trading it like
a trading range and when you get beard
channels broad bear channels or trading
ranges there's one thing that happens
all the time and it's really hard if
you're starting out and that is the
market often looks strongest right
before it reverses down and it looks
most bearish right before it reverses up
so here look at the bull bars here and
then you get this bull bar so you get
the best-looking bull bar right near at
the top here too strong bull bars but
they weren't able to get above the high
here a huge bull bar unable to get above
the high it looks the most bullish at
this point but that's not you're not you
don't want to be buying we're still in
the trading range or still in the beer
channel and here we have a huge beer bar
and you're thinking wow it's really
bearish now but is it what will the
follow-through look like we're at the
bottom of a trading range and you have
to realize that trading ranges are
constantly trying to convert into trends
so near the bottom you tend to get a big
bear breakout but you have to bet the
breakout will fail when you get near the
top you're probably going to be getting
a strong bull breakout and you're going
to look at anything oh it's going to be
breaking into a bull trend until it has
clearly broken into a bull trend you
have to assume every breakout attempt up
and down is going to fail so channels
tend to look most bullish right before
they reverse down and most bearish right
before they reverse up Laura
lower lows so it's a beer channel but I
would still look to sell when the market
is high and by when it's low and
sometimes the self is really strong when
that's the case we have three beer bars
here instead of buying the first
reversal up wait for a second reversal
up and buy their same here you might you
might buy that if not you could wait for
a second reversal up or wait for two or
three full bars and buy above the second
bull bar way down like this you're not
sure is this beer bar a pullback from a
new bull trend here or is it a failed
breakout and the start of a bear trend
well you could sell below it or you
could wait for a second sell a double
top a lower high double top a little bit
of a wedge okay so a double top that
means it's the second sell you could
wait for that high to high one first
reversal up a second reversal here you
get a wedge even though it's a first
reversal down it's a parabolic wedge
first reversal up second reversal up
above that bull bar another wedge one of
the point about these channels is it's
really frustrating because you're
looking for textbook signals you're
looking for really good signal bars
you're not going to get them one of the
hallmarks of a trading range is
confusion and that means nothing ever
looks right
you see bull breakouts they reverse down
you see signal bars that they don't look
quite good enough all right that's just
the nature of trading ranges and if you
know if you're not comfortable taking
the entries don't worry about it and
just don't trade it but every now and
then you'll get one that looks pretty
good here our second reversal up that's
pretty good it's probably not going to
lead to a trend it's probably going to
be a leg in a trading range so you take
the Buy and then you take reasonably
quick profits so I talked about four
types of bear trends bear channels very
tight no pull backs a micro channel you
only want to sell it's a bear breakout
on a higher time frame chart the next
strongest type of beer channel is this
the pull backs are small and brief only
one to three bars
they do not go up very far and on a
higher time frame chart this is also a
breakout so if you looked at a 60-minute
chart of this it would be a series of
bear bars closing on or near their lows
and if it's a strong bear trend on a
higher time frame chart on this chart
you only want to sell so a microchannel
no pullbacks only sell a tight bear
channel a small pullback bear trend only
sell and then your typical type of bear
channel where pullback school book
breakout points it's easier to make
money selling but you can also buy you
can buy with limit orders or you can buy
with stops on reversals up and finally a
broad bear channel where it looks like a
trading range and it's in a trading
range for a lot of the time you can buy
or sell I began by talking about what a
better channel is lower highs and lower
lows I then talked about the ordinary
type of bear channels where pullbacks go
above the breakout points and you can
make money buying and selling next I
talked about very tight beer channels
either micro channels or small pullback
bear trance you only want to sell and
then broad bear channels which are
basically trading ranges that are tilted
down you can buy and sell okay does
anybody have any questions about
anything yeah no they're they're not
enough retail guys out there okay you
know you and I are totally unimportant
we cannot do anything we cannot do
anything that will do anything on that
chart all of us together could probably
not make the market move right you know
you know we're just too small and
insignificant so what you're saying is
well how the heck do you get who's
buying up there all right everything
who's you know you get that bull bar
closing on its high right at the moving
average somebody had to take that buy
right in my opinion is it's
high-frequency trading firms looking for
one tick profit
right so it gets if if you look at that
bull bar closing on or near its high if
you looked at maybe a one-second chart
or even a tick chart you know I see two
three four ticks up up up up up right a
high-frequency trading firm is going to
see it went up with no pull back up
without pulling up with no pull back
it's gonna keep buying it's gonna do
exactly what I'm talking about but
they're doing it on a chart there's one
tick instead of a chart that's five
minutes so you know it goes up up up up
they're gonna buy the market buy at the
market buy at the market until there's
finally a tick down and then they sell
well every institution is using
something different you know you have no
idea what they're doing right and you
just don't to me I'm just looking for
some measure of what is average and on
the 5-minute chart for me I think the
twenty bar exponential moving average
works pretty well but if you put up any
other you know some people use a ten a
bar exponential moving average some
people use fifteen some people use
simple moving averages waiting moving
averages and they all are kind of about
the same some you know sometimes you on
the 5-minute on the 28 bar exponential
moving average you'll see the market
reverse down from below the average
other times to see it go above the
average or guess what if you were using
a 30 bar simple moving average those
might be perfect tests on some other
moving average right so on with my
moving average you know something
sometimes it goes a little bit above
sometimes a little bit below if you look
at some other moving average my
imperfect touches could be perfect
touches so it doesn't matter which one
you take you know
right for example if you're selling at
the moving average you all right and you
know the movie and you depends expensive
which moving average you use I don't
think it matters because no matter which
one you take if you're selling in a bear
trend you're going to put your stop
above the most recent low or high and
you know so it okay I'm getting kicked
out right but it doesn't matter we
should thank
[Applause]
you
[Music]
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