f*** i might be wrong

Summary

In this video, Kevin discusses the potential impact of unemployment rates on the economy, focusing on a predicted dip in rates that could affect mortgage and treasury rates, as well as the stock market. He highlights the upcoming September unemployment report and its significance, especially in the context of the upcoming election. Kevin also addresses the launch of a new financial advisory service, emphasizing its focus on wealth building through real estate. He concludes by advising viewers to be patient with market investments, waiting for more data before making financial decisions.

Takeaways

• 🎉 Kevin celebrates his son Jack's birthday and discusses the potential impact of unemployment rates on the economy.
• 📈 The script anticipates a dip in the unemployment rate, which could affect mortgage and treasury rates, and the stock market.
• 🗓 Important dates highlighted include September 6th for the August unemployment report, October 4th for September's report, and November 1st for October's report.
• 🔍 The discussion suggests that a drop in the unemployment rate could trigger recessionary warnings, contrary to popular belief.
• 🏢 The script notes that higher-income individuals might be less likely to claim unemployment benefits, which could skew the data.
• 📉 There's a potential for a 'soft landing' into a recession, with consumption growth slowing to a pace that could lead to layoffs.
• 💼 The script mentions the launch of a new financial advisory service focused on wealth planning, distinguishing it from traditional financial services.
• 💼 The new service, launching October 1st, will offer licensed financial advice with a lower fee structure and a monthly retainer.
• 📊 The script references data from the St. Louis Fed, suggesting that savings rates typically spike in the first quarter of a recession.
• 📉 The personal savings rate has fallen to a low, which historically has been a sign of a potential economic downturn.
• 🤔 Kevin expresses his cautious optimism, suggesting that he will be data-dependent and patient, waiting for more economic indicators before making investment decisions.

Q & A

What is the significance of the September 6th unemployment rate release mentioned in the script?

The September 6th unemployment rate release is significant because it could potentially show a dip in the unemployment rate, which might trigger recessionary warnings. It's also notable because it comes just four days before the election, which could lead to market volatility.

What does Pantheon macroeconomics predict regarding the unemployment rate in their September release?

Pantheon macroeconomics predicts a potential dip in the unemployment rate from 4.3% to 4.2% in their September release, which is expected to come out on September 6th.

Why might the unemployment rate decrease according to the script?

The script suggests that the decrease in the unemployment rate might be due to a decline in temporary layoffs, which were high in the previous month's report, possibly due to factors other than the hurricane as initially speculated.

What is the role of Kevin's new financial advisory service mentioned in the script?

Kevin's new financial advisory service is designed to consult on wealth planning, focusing on real estate investments balanced with other financial aspects such as income, debt, and renovations. It's not about outperforming the market but about building wealth with strategic planning.

How does the script relate unemployment claims to the start of a recession?

The script indicates that both unemployment claims and the unemployment rate tend to lag the start of a recession but align well with it. An increase in unemployment claims often precedes a rise in the unemployment rate.

What factors might cause higher income individuals to be less likely to claim unemployment benefits as mentioned in the script?

Higher income individuals might be less likely to claim unemployment benefits due to receiving severance pay, having higher savings, a negative stigma associated with filing for unemployment, high confidence in their ability to secure another job, or being ineligible due to their prior income.

What does the script suggest about the potential impact of a good jobs report on the markets?

The script suggests that a good jobs report could be bullish for the markets, potentially rallying them, and could lead to a reevaluation of treasury rates and the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations.

How does the script discuss the personal savings rate in relation to consumption growth?

The script discusses that the personal savings rate has fallen to substantial lows, which has been supporting high consumption growth. However, as the savings rate is expected to rise due to labor market softening, consumption growth is expected to slow, which is a recessionary sign.

What is Kevin's strategy for the market volatility expected around the election mentioned in the script?

Kevin suggests being prepared for election volatility, particularly in October, and advises to be patient, waiting for data after the election to make more informed decisions about market positioning.

What is the script's stance on the current economic state and the possibility of a recession?

The script presents a nuanced view, suggesting that while there might be short-term bullish signs, such as a potential drop in the unemployment rate, there are longer-term concerns about consumption growth, personal savings rate, and other leading indicators that suggest the economy could be entering a recession.