Why is 1.5 degrees important? - The Climate Question, BBC World Service

Summary

This podcast episode from the BBC World Service discusses the critical 1.5°C global warming target set by the Paris Agreement. It explores why this target is essential for protecting vulnerable ecosystems and populations, such as low-lying island nations, from extreme weather and rising sea levels. The episode features Dr. Adam Levy, emphasizing that while exceeding this limit isn't 'game over,' it underscores the urgency to reduce emissions to zero and transition to renewable energy sources to mitigate climate change.

Takeaways

• 🌡️ The 1.5°C target is a central goal in the fight against climate change, aiming to limit the global temperature rise to prevent severe consequences.
• 🌍 The Paris climate agreement in 2015 marked the first time many countries agreed to tackle climate change, with 1.5°C being the more ambitious part of the agreement.
• 🏝️ Limiting warming to 1.5°C is crucial for protecting vulnerable populations and ecosystems, such as low-lying island nations and coral reefs, from the worst impacts of climate change.
• 🔥 The number 1.5°C has become a rallying point for climate activists, symbolizing the urgency and the need for action to mitigate global warming.
• 💧 Sea level rise, caused by melting ice caps and glaciers as well as thermal expansion of seawater, poses a significant threat, particularly to island nations like the Maldives.
• 🌡️ The 1.5°C limit refers to a global average temperature increase relative to pre-industrial times, using the period 1850 to 1900 as a reference point.
• 🌟 Achieving the 1.5°C target is not just about new technologies; it requires immediate action from governments and companies to reduce carbon emissions significantly.
• ⏳ Even if we exceed the 1.5°C target temporarily, it does not mean we have failed; it's an average over several years, and the goal remains to prevent long-term breaches.
• 🚫 The key to stopping global warming is reaching zero carbon dioxide emissions, which involves transitioning to renewable energy sources and making changes in land use.
• 🌳 Reforestation and forest protection are part of the necessary actions to combat climate change and work towards the 1.5°C target.
• 🌍 The fight against climate change is a global effort, requiring the collective action of countries, businesses, and individuals to reduce emissions and protect the planet.

Q & A

What is the significance of the 1.5°C global temperature rise target mentioned in the script?

The 1.5°C target is significant because it represents an ambitious goal set by the Paris climate agreement to limit global warming. It is considered a threshold that, if exceeded, could lead to more severe consequences of climate change, including extreme weather events and threats to vulnerable populations and ecosystems.

Why was the Paris climate agreement a pivotal moment in global climate policy?

The Paris climate agreement was pivotal because it was the first time that a majority of the world's polluters agreed to make cuts to their emissions to control global warming. It marked a collective commitment to address climate change on a global scale.

What are some of the consequences of exceeding the 1.5°C global temperature rise?

Exceeding the 1.5°C global temperature rise could lead to more frequent and severe heatwaves, floods, and droughts. It could also result in food shortages, threaten the existence of low-lying island nations due to sea-level rise, and potentially eliminate vital ecosystems like coral reefs.

How does the script describe the importance of the 1.5°C target for small island states?

The script emphasizes that the 1.5°C target is crucial for small island states as it represents a defense line against the existential threat of climate change. These states are particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise and extreme weather events, making the 1.5°C target a matter of survival.

What is thermal expansion, and how does it contribute to sea-level rise?

Thermal expansion is the process by which seawater expands as it heats up, taking up more space and contributing to sea-level rise. As global temperatures increase, the volume of seawater increases, leading to higher sea levels and posing a threat to coastal and low-lying areas.

What is the reference period used for comparing global temperature changes in climate discussions?

The reference period used for comparing global temperature changes is 1850 to 1900, as this is when good records are available for comparison. This period is considered pre-industrial, before the large-scale burning of fossil fuels.

Why was there a push to get the global warming target down to 1.5°C during the Paris agreement negotiations?

The push for a 1.5°C target came from low-lying island states and other nations most at risk from the impacts of climate change. These countries argued for a more ambitious target to better protect themselves and the global community from the worst consequences of climate change.

What does the script suggest about the potential for exceeding the 1.5°C target in the near future?

The script suggests that while there have been headlines indicating the possibility of exceeding the 1.5°C target in a single year, this does not mean the long-term average has been breached. It emphasizes that the target refers to an average over several years, and exceeding it for a year is a warning rather than a definitive failure.

What is the primary goal for reducing global warming according to the script?

The primary goal for reducing global warming, as mentioned in the script, is to reach zero emissions of carbon dioxide. This involves transitioning rapidly away from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, nuclear power, and other sustainable practices.

How does the script address the misconception that new technologies are needed to combat climate change?

The script clarifies that while new technologies will continue to be developed, the current tools and practices we have are sufficient to make significant progress towards net-zero emissions. It emphasizes the need for immediate action and the widespread adoption of existing solutions rather than waiting for futuristic technologies.

What is the script's stance on the importance of immediate action to mitigate climate change?

The script stresses the urgency of immediate action, stating that we have the tools and knowledge needed to start mitigating climate change right now. It argues against waiting for perfect solutions and calls for rapid and large-scale implementation of current technologies and practices.

Outlines

00:00

🌡️ The Significance of 1.5°C in Climate Change

The script introduces the critical target of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, a figure that has become a focal point in climate discussions. Jordan Dunbar, host of The Climate Question podcast, interviews Dr. Adam Levy to explore the implications of this target. The Paris Agreement of 2015 is highlighted as the origin of the 1.5°C goal, which aims to mitigate severe climate change effects such as extreme weather events, food shortages, and the preservation of vulnerable ecosystems like coral reefs. The script emphasizes the importance of this target for the survival of low-lying island nations, which face existential threats from sea-level rise due to global warming.

05:02

🌍 The Global Impact and Efforts to Achieve the 1.5°C Target

This paragraph delves into the global implications of achieving the 1.5°C target and the historical struggle to include it in climate policy. It recounts the efforts of small island states, particularly during the Paris Agreement negotiations, to set the ambitious target as a lifeline for their survival. The narrative includes personal accounts from Janine Felson, a strategic adviser for the Alliance of Small Island States, who shares the intense negotiations and the euphoric victory when the 1.5°C goal was adopted. The script also addresses misconceptions about exceeding the 1.5°C limit, clarifying that a single anomalously warm year does not signify a breach of the target, which is based on multi-year averages. The importance of striving for zero emissions is underscored as the key to preventing further global warming.

10:05

🛠️ Transitioning to Zero Emissions: The Path to 1.5°C

The final paragraph focuses on the practical steps required to achieve the 1.5°C target, emphasizing that it is not about waiting for futuristic technologies but about immediate action. It stresses the need for a rapid transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, nuclear power, and battery storage, as well as land use changes like reforestation. The script dispels the myth that achieving the 1.5°C target necessitates unattainable technological advancements, asserting that the tools for significant progress are already available. It calls for governments and companies to implement these solutions at scale and speed. The paragraph concludes with a reminder that exceeding the 1.5°C target, if it occurs, is not the end but a warning to intensify efforts to reduce emissions and halt global warming.

Keywords

💡Global Warming

Global warming refers to the long-term increase in Earth's average surface temperature due primarily to human activities such as the emission of greenhouse gases. In the video, global warming is the central theme, with a focus on the target of limiting the rise in global temperatures to 1.5°C to avoid the worst consequences of climate change.

💡1.5°C Target

The 1.5°C target is a goal set by the Paris Agreement to limit the increase in global average temperatures to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, aiming for 1.5°C to significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. The video emphasizes the importance of striving for this target to protect vulnerable populations and ecosystems.

💡Paris Climate Agreement

The Paris Climate Agreement is an international treaty adopted in 2015 that aims to combat climate change by limiting global temperature rise and increasing efforts to adapt to its effects. The video discusses the significance of the agreement in setting the ambitious target of 1.5°C and the collective effort required to achieve it.

💡Extreme Weather Events

Extreme weather events are severe meteorological occurrences that can have significant impacts on human societies and the natural environment. The script mentions heatwaves, floods, and droughts as examples of such events, which are exacerbated by climate change and are a key reason for aiming to limit global warming to 1.5°C.

💡Vulnerable Populations

Vulnerable populations are groups that are disproportionately affected by climate change due to factors such as location, socio-economic status, or lack of resources. The video highlights low-lying island nations and their inhabitants as particularly at risk from sea level rise and the impacts of global warming.

💡Sea Level Rise

Sea level rise is the increase in the volume of water in the world's oceans, resulting in a rise in sea level. It is caused by melting ice caps and glaciers and the thermal expansion of seawater as it warms. The script discusses the threat of sea level rise to island nations like the Maldives, where it poses an existential threat.

💡Thermal Expansion

Thermal expansion is a physical process where matter increases in volume in response to an increase in temperature. In the context of the video, the term is used to explain how the heating of seawater leads to its expansion, contributing to sea level rise and the associated risks for coastal communities.

💡Pre-industrial Times

Pre-industrial times refer to the period before the industrial revolution, when human activities had not yet significantly impacted the climate. The video uses the period 1850 to 1900 as a reference point for measuring the increase in global temperatures, emphasizing the significance of the changes since that time.

💡Zero Emissions

Zero emissions is a term used to describe a state where no greenhouse gases or other pollutants are emitted into the atmosphere. The script argues that achieving zero emissions is crucial for limiting global warming to 1.5°C, requiring a rapid transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources and other sustainable practices.

💡Renewable Energy

Renewable energy refers to energy sources that are replenished naturally and sustainably, such as wind, solar, and hydroelectric power. The video mentions renewable energy as a key component of the transition away from fossil fuels to achieve zero emissions and mitigate the impacts of climate change.

💡Coral Reefs

Coral reefs are marine ecosystems composed of coral polyps that are vital to marine biodiversity and coastal protection. The script discusses the vulnerability of coral reefs to climate change, particularly the risk of their elimination if global warming reaches 2°C, highlighting the importance of the 1.5°C target for their preservation.

Highlights

The 1.5°C global temperature rise is a critical target discussed in the Paris climate agreement, aiming to limit global warming and its severe impacts.

Dr. Adam Levy, known as Climate Adam on YouTube, provides insights on the significance of the 1.5°C target in climate change discussions.

The Paris climate agreement in 2015 was a historic moment where most countries agreed to cut emissions to control global warming.

1.5°C is considered a more ambitious goal within the Paris agreement, aiming to protect the world from extreme weather events and other climate change consequences.

Limiting global warming to 1.5°C is crucial for protecting vulnerable populations such as low-lying island nations from threats like sea-level rise.

Rae Munavaar, a journalist from the Maldives, discusses the existential threat of sea-level rise to the Maldives' way of life.

Thermal expansion of seawater due to heating is a significant contributor to sea-level rise.

The 1.5°C target is based on a global average temperature rise relative to pre-industrial times, using the period 1850-1900 as a reference.

Achieving the 1.5°C target was a hard-fought victory for low-lying island states during the Paris climate negotiations.

Janine Felson shares her experience as a strategic adviser with the Alliance of Small Island States, emphasizing the importance of the 1.5°C target for survival.

Exceeding 1.5°C for a year does not mean the target has been breached; it refers to an average over several years.

The impact of global warming is incremental, with every fraction of a degree increase raising the risk of extreme weather events.

Even if we pass the 1.5°C mark, it does not signal the end of efforts to mitigate climate change; it calls for intensified action.

Achieving the 1.5°C target requires reaching zero carbon dioxide emissions, which is possible with current technologies and rapid transition away from fossil fuels.

Governments and companies must act swiftly and on a large scale to utilize existing tools and technologies to reduce emissions.

The Climate Question podcast explores global perspectives on climate change, featuring experts and everyday people addressing the world's biggest challenge.

Transcripts

They reckon average global  temperatures will have risen by 1.5°C.

There's more discussion about  striving to be close to 1.5°.

We should aim for under 1.5°. Limiting the  global temperature rise to below 1.5°C.

One little number to rule them all. You  must have heard of it - on the news,  

chanted on the streets or maybe in  your social feed. One point five.

To be fair by this point if  I didn't know what it meant,

I'd be too afraid to ask, but that's where we  

come in. What do we mean when we  talk about 1.5° in climate change?

I'm Jordan Dunbar and I'm one of the hosts  of The Climate Question podcast from the  

BBC World Service. In this episode I'm asking  simple questions and getting simple answers. 

To help me out I've asked Dr Adam Levy  or Climate Adam as he's known on YouTube. 

I am a climate scientist by training  and now I work as a science communicator,  

climate change YouTuber and all around  kind of climate change talking person.

OK so 1.5 to me has to be one of the

most controversial, talked about,  

fought over and mentioned numbers, why are  people banging on about 1.5° of warming?

So 1.5° of warming kind of came into everyone's  consciousness as part of the Paris climate  

agreement. It was actually the kind of  more ambitious part of that agreement.

It said we should limit global warming to  two degrees and if we're really good let's  

try and limit global warming  to 1.5° and then scientists,  

people in policy, people just generally  working in climate change really started  

to look more and more into what limiting  global warming to 1.5 degrees would mean.

The Paris climate agreement is something that gets  talked about all the time in climate circles. It  

was the global climate conference back in 2015  where the majority of polluters around the world  

agreed to make cuts to their emissions to try  and keep global warming under control. This  

was the first time so many countries had  agreed to try and tackle climate change.

Our work here is done and now we can return  home to implement this historic agreement.

Why 1.5° though, why not 2° or 1.4°?

So 1.5° manages to relatively protect us from a lot of the worst consequences of climate change,

things like extreme weather events, so heatwaves, floods, droughts. It protects animals. It means  we're more protected from food shortages,  

but in particular it really protects the  most vulnerable people and things on this  

planet. So for example low-lying island  nations could be just swept under by sea  

level rise if we allow global warming to reach  2° and in terms of ecosystems, coral reefs,  

these vital beautiful ecosystems could be  pretty much eliminated from the planet.

We've spoken to someone who knows only too  well the consequences of that sea level rise.

This is a very real thing that the Maldives  is facing and struggling with right now.

Rae Munavaar is a journalist working for  The Edition newspaper based in the Maldives  

in the Indian Ocean. The warming caused by our  emissions causes ice caps and glaciers to melt,  

as well as making the oceans rise  through expanding water. What?  

I hear you say. Well grab a helmet  because I'm going to blow your mind. 

As seawater heats up it expands. Yes, seawater  gets bigger and literally takes up more space.  

So the sea rises and that is thermal  expansion for you ladies and gentlemen,  

which if you live a few meters above  sea level is a real and present danger.

We've been advocating because this  is our way of life, this is something  

we're doing for survival, it's  an existential threat for us.

Everything in the Maldives is less than 10m away  

from a shoreline. All of our  facilities from health care

to banking to emergency response to food storage  to farming, all of this is at the shoreline.

So there is nowhere we have to run, there is 

nothing we can do we cannot  keep building higher either.

When we're talking about these amounts of global  warming firstly we're talking about an average  

for the entire planet, so some bits of the planet  are heating faster than others but these limits  

are really talking about the global average and  this warming is relative sort of to pre-industrial  

times before we actually got started burning  fossil fuels seriously. In practice though,  

in policy and in science we actually use  the period 1850 to 1900 as the reference  

point because that's when we have really good  records to compare to and the important thing  

is that scientists and policy people are  all talking the same language. That they're  

all referring to the same thing when we're  talking about 1.5 degrees. So that we know  

if we're heading towards that politically we  know what the consequences of that will be.

Back in 2015 though it was a fight to get the  target down to 1.5° and unsurprisingly it was  

the low-lying island states, the ones most  at risk who argued to get the target down.

It has become the core of  the climate conversation.

Janine Felson was a strategic  adviser with the Alliance of  

Small Island States back in  2015. She came onto the show

and told us why she was negotiating  so hard to make 1.5 the agreement.

The days and nights and mornings of Paris are  still very fresh in my mind. We worked non-stop.

...the citizens of my country and the Caribbean,  

who adopted 1.5 to stay alive as  their mantra, their future looks much  

brighter today than it did two weeks ago. brighter today than it did two weeks ago.

We were completely euphoric

1.5 is the ultimate defence line for small  island developing states. That is the only  

way in which we can provide any  hope for our children’s future.

Honestly it's great news for the whole world that  the 1.5 degree figure is this crucial figure that  

the world is now focusing on because for things  like extreme weather events, heatwaves which are  

already devastating countries around the world  you know costing tens of thousands of lives you  

know limiting global warming to 1.5° it won't  completely protect us from that but it will  

seriously limit the risks and the harms caused  by climate change. OK well this brings me to  

the scary bit because there's been lots and lots  of headlines saying we are going to go over 1.5  

degrees warming this year. Is that true and what  happens if we do go over? So what the 1.5° limit  

refers to is the average in global temperatures.  But that's an average over several years and so  

if you have one freakishly hot year that doesn't  mean the limit has been breached it really has  

to be many years in a row over that limit for  us to have passed 1.5° and if we do pass 1.5°  

that doesn't mean game over, it's not like a  switch that takes us from everything was fine  

to you know world over. It's various degrees of  bad and it's not like if we pass 1.5 degrees we  

then just give up and say OK well two degrees  of warming or three degrees of warming there's  

a world of difference between every fraction  of a degree of global warming. Because every  

fraction of a degree brings more likelihood of  extreme weather, so working towards not hitting  

1.7 if we're at 1.6 means you're eliminating some  of that risk. It's not game over, there's so many  

more levels to play. 1.5 is not the final  boss, it's just one of many bosses, right?

Yeah for sure and you know if we fail  at that boss you know it sucks but  

we've just got to get ourselves  even more ready for the next boss.

Reload, reload, go in. Yes. 

But can we actually do it? Can we stay  under 1.5? So it's important that we  

bear in mind that there's nothing  in the physics of how the atmosphere

or the climate work that says 1.5 degrees is  off the table. That is until we have passed it. 

And so since we are still under  1.5 degrees of global warming,  

we should really be fighting to stay  under with everything we've got.

Now if we do pass it, what does that mean? There's  a risk that some people will throw their hands up  

in there and say "Oh that's game over, you know,  we've tried and we failed, let's stop trying to  

do anything about climate change, it's the end of  the world". That's absolutely not what the science  

shows us, it shows us that before or after 1.5  degrees of global warming we need to fight as hard  

as possible to stop burning fossil fuels so we can  stop the planet heating as quickly as possible.

It's clear how important trying to keep under the  1.5 degree limit is, but Adam how do we do it?

In some ways it's really easy to think about  and in some ways it's really complicated.

So to stop the world from heating up there's one  number you need to keep in mind, which is zero  

and so reaching zero emissions of carbon dioxide  means transitioning as rapidly as possible away  

from fossil fuels to things like renewable energy,  nuclear power, battery storage, things like this  

and it also means making serious changes in how  we use land, so doing things like reforestation,  

protecting the forests that already exist. This  is what we need to do to stop global warming  

full stop, but to stop global warming at 1.5°  we need to do this really incredibly quickly.

So we need to reach zero emissions  overall by around the middle of  

the century if we want to limit  global warming to 1.5 degrees.

So that sounds like it's not about some  amazing new technologies but government's  

just actually taking action, actually doing  things and not just talking about it.

Yeah I think a lot of people have in their  heads that to achieve this would need some  

magical thing like nuclear fusion to come in and  save the day that's not at all the case we already  

have the tools to get us most of the way to the  net zero that we need to go for and you know over  

the coming decades of course new technologies  will be developed, but we need to start that  

transition as quickly as we possibly can and the  great news is yeah we have the tools to do that.

Right, let's recap. So we got to the 1.5° target  to be ambitious. It lets us protect ourselves as  

much as we can including the many, many  low-lying islands and vital coral reefs.

If for one or two years the world is over 1.5°  warmer that doesn't mean we've exceeded the  

target, it's an average. So if we do go over  it this year it's a warning it is not the end.

The other number we need to think  about is zero. Zero emissions - we  

have to get fossil fuel emissions  down and fast. The good news is  

we don't need any mad futuristic  technologies to do a lot of this.

We have the tools we need right now but companies  and governments have to use them rapidly and in  

huge numbers and the best available evidence  suggests once we get emissions down to zero  

the temperature will begin to drop. If you want to  know more we've got some other amazing explainers,  

like 'What is climate change?' and 'What  is COP?' which you can find wherever you  

get your podcasts. The Climate Question takes  all of the issues we've heard about and tackles  

them with a global perspective so wherever you  live we'll be finding out how climate change is  

affecting you and what can be done about it. Join  us each week to meet experts, activists, actors,  

businesses, scientists and everyday people as  they deal with the world's biggest challenge.