Will the coronavirus crisis reshape globalisation and the economic system? | COVID-19 Special

Summary

The video script discusses the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on globalization, presenting three potential scenarios for the world economy's future. It explores the possibility of increased nationalism and localized supply chains, a return to high-speed trade, or a reshaping towards a green economy. The conversation includes insights from Beata Javorcik, an economist, who suggests a shift from cost-cutting to resilience in global value chains and the potential for remote work to expand beyond local boundaries. The script also touches on the immune system's response to reduced exposure to pathogens during lockdowns and the uncertainty surrounding liver damage in COVID-19 recoverers.

Takeaways

• 🌐 The script discusses the impact of the coronavirus on globalization, suggesting that it might be the end of an era for the current global economic system.
• 📉 It mentions a potential backlash against globalization due to the pandemic, which could lead to a recession and a reevaluation of open borders and markets.
• 🏛 French President Emmanuel Macron is quoted suggesting that globalization might be reaching the end of its cycle, hinting at a possible shift in the world's economic paradigm.
• 🛑 The script outlines three scenarios for the future: withdrawal behind borders, a return to high-speed trade, or a reshaping of globalization towards a green economy and global Green Deal.
• 💡 Some argue that globalization is not to blame for the pandemic and that the benefits it provides are too significant to abandon due to an external crisis.
• 🔄 The discussion highlights a potential shift from 'just in time' supply chains to 'just in case,' focusing on resilience and redundancy.
• 🌳 The crisis could be an opportunity to push for a green economy, leveraging the awareness raised about the need to protect the environment.
• 🔍 Beata Javorcik, a professor of economics, suggests that the pandemic might enhance protectionism and lead to a reevaluation of global value chains for increased resilience.
• 🏙️ The script suggests that remote work, which has become widespread due to the pandemic, could lead to a more globalized labor market, benefiting countries with lower wages.
• 🤔 There is an ongoing debate about whether the pandemic is a crisis to be managed or an opportunity for significant systemic change, indicating a shift in societal expectations.
• 🛑 The script raises questions about the potential for basic income and a reevaluation of the social contract, with an expectation for more state provision and possibly higher taxes post-pandemic.

Q & A

What is the main concern regarding globalization in the context of the coronavirus pandemic?

The main concern is whether the coronavirus pandemic will lead to the end of globalization as we know it, with some suggesting a shift towards nationalism and local supply chains, while others believe globalization will continue but with changes to enhance resilience.

What are the three scenarios observers suggest for the future of globalization post-pandemic?

The three scenarios are: 1) The end of an era with a retreat to nationalism and localized supply chains, 2) A return to the status quo with high-speed, high-volume trade, and 3) A reshaping of globalization towards a new normal based on morals and reason, potentially including a global green economy.

What does French President Emmanuel Macron suggest about the future of globalization?

Emmanuel Macron suggests that we may be reaching the end of the cycle of globalization and that it's time to think the unthinkable, implying a potential shift away from the current model.

What is the argument against the idea that globalization is solely to blame for the economic challenges brought on by the pandemic?

The argument is that globalization is an external factor and not the direct cause of the virus, suggesting that the benefits of globalization should not be disregarded due to a crisis that originates from outside the system.

How might the pandemic influence the concept of global value chains?

The pandemic may lead to a shift from cost-cutting to resilience, with a focus on building redundancy into supply chains and having multiple suppliers to avoid over-dependence on any single source.

What is the potential impact of the pandemic on the idea of remote work and its implications for the global labor market?

The pandemic has accelerated the adoption of remote work, potentially leading to a more global labor market where companies can hire talent from anywhere, which could benefit workers in countries with lower wages but might also challenge local workers in advanced economies.

What is the current understanding of the risk of contracting COVID-19 from consuming meat?

Currently, there is no confirmed evidence that COVID-19 can be contracted through consuming meat, especially if it is cooked properly. The focus on wet markets is due to the potential for initial transmission through exposure to live or dead animals.

How does the immune system's exposure to microbes and sunlight during lockdowns potentially affect health?

Staying indoors can reduce exposure to microbes and sunlight, which may negatively impact the immune system and overall health. However, the consensus is that the effects on the immune system should be negligible for a few months due to the nature of the lockdowns compared to more extreme isolation scenarios like space travel.

What is the current state of knowledge regarding liver damage in individuals who have recovered from COVID-19?

While some patients hospitalized for COVID-19 have shown increased liver enzymes, which may indicate liver damage, it is not yet clear if this is a direct result of the virus or a side effect of treatments or the immune response. No widespread, unmistakable liver damage attributable to COVID-19 has been reported among recovered patients.

What is the potential long-term impact of the pandemic on the social contract between citizens and the state?

The pandemic may lead to a reevaluation of the social contract, with citizens expecting more from the state in terms of risk management and support, potentially leading to changes in taxation and state provisions.

How might the pandemic influence discussions around a basic income?

The pandemic could spark conversations about the need for a basic income or changes to the social contract, as people may expect the state to provide more support in times of crisis, which could lead to discussions about how to fund such provisions.

Outlines

00:00

🌐 The Future of Globalization Amidst Pandemic

The script discusses the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on globalization and the global economy. It presents three potential scenarios for the future: the end of globalization as we know it, a return to turbo-charged capitalism, and a reshaping towards a greener and more sustainable model. The narrative questions whether the pandemic is a catalyst for nationalism and protectionism or an opportunity to rethink global systems for the better. The discussion also includes the role of technology, remote work, and the potential for a global Green Deal to emerge from the crisis.

05:01

🌱 Global Supply Chains and the Shift Towards Resilience

This paragraph delves into the dependency on China for various components and supplies, and how the pandemic has exposed the vulnerabilities in global supply chains. It suggests a shift from a focus on cost-cutting to building resilience, which includes diversifying suppliers and creating redundancy. The conversation also touches on the potential benefits and drawbacks of remote work, including the possibility of hiring skilled workers from different countries, and the broader implications for the social contract and state provisions post-pandemic.

10:01

🛑 Health Impacts and Immune System Concerns During Lockdown

The final paragraph addresses health-related concerns during the pandemic, including the transmission of the virus through food and the potential for liver damage in those who have recovered from COVID-19. It also discusses the impact of staying indoors on the immune system, the importance of exposure to microbes, sunlight, and maintaining healthy habits like exercise. The consensus among experts is that the effects on the immune system from reduced exposure to pathogens during lockdowns should be minimal for a few months.

Keywords

💡Globalization

Globalization refers to the process of increased interconnectedness and interdependence among countries through trade, investment, and cultural exchange. In the video's context, it is portrayed as being at risk due to the coronavirus pandemic, with some suggesting it could lead to the end of the current cycle of globalization. The script mentions a backlash against globalization and the potential for a reshaping of the system.

💡Great Lockdown

The term 'Great Lockdown' is used to describe the widespread economic and social restrictions imposed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. It is a key factor in the video that has led to discussions on the future of the global economy and the potential end of the era of open borders and markets.

💡Nationalism

Nationalism in this video is presented as a political ideology that prioritizes national interests and self-sufficiency over global cooperation. It is suggested as a possible outcome of the pandemic, with politicians advocating for a retreat behind national borders and a focus on local supply chains and manufacturing.

💡Supply Chains

Supply chains are the networks involved in the production and distribution of goods. The video discusses the vulnerability of global supply chains during the pandemic, with a shift towards localization and resilience being considered as a response to the crisis. The script mentions repatriating manufacturing and stockpiling supplies as potential strategies.

💡Patriots

In the video, 'patriots' are contrasted with 'globalists,' referring to individuals who advocate for national interests and sovereignty. The script suggests that the future belongs to patriots who support sovereign and independent nations, reflecting a potential post-pandemic trend towards nationalism.

💡Global Green Deal

The 'Global Green Deal' is a concept mentioned in the video that proposes a new economic model focused on environmental sustainability and a green economy. It is presented as a potential reshaping of globalization, using the crisis as an opportunity to prioritize climate protection and a sustainable future.

💡Remote Work

Remote work is the practice of working from locations other than the traditional office. The video discusses how the pandemic has forced a large-scale experiment in remote work, with implications for the future of global value chains and the potential for hiring skilled workers from anywhere in the world.

💡Just-in-Time

Just-in-time (JIT) is a production strategy aimed at reducing inventory costs by supplying goods as they are needed in the production process. The video suggests that the pandemic has exposed the vulnerabilities of JIT supply chains and may lead to a shift towards 'just-in-case' strategies that prioritize resilience.

💡Basic Income

Basic income is a proposed social program where all citizens receive a regular, unconditional sum of money from the state. The video raises the possibility of discussing a basic income post-pandemic as part of a changing social contract, where the state is expected to provide more support to its citizens.

💡Social Contract

The social contract is a philosophical concept that describes the relationship between individuals and the state, including the rights and responsibilities of each. The video suggests that the pandemic may lead to a reevaluation of this contract, with expectations of more state provision and potentially higher taxes.

💡Resilience

Resilience in the context of the video refers to the ability of supply chains and economies to withstand shocks and disruptions. It is highlighted as a key consideration for the future, with a shift from cost-cutting to building redundancy and flexibility into global systems.

Highlights

The coronavirus pandemic has raised questions about the future of globalization and its potential end.

French President Emmanuel Macron suggests thinking the unthinkable regarding the end of globalization's cycle.

A potential backlash against globalization has been growing, with some advocating for nationalism and sovereignty.

Some expect a return to turbo capitalism and high-speed trade, arguing globalization's benefits are too great to abandon.

The debate on decoupling and the end of globalization lacks practical meaning due to interconnected global systems.

A crisis could be a moment to push for a green economy and a global Green Deal, inspired by the pandemic's environmental impact.

The pandemic may lead to a reshaping of globalization, focusing on resilience and redundancy in supply chains.

Beata Javorcik, an economist, discusses the pandemic's impact on global economic systems and the potential for policy changes.

The pandemic is enhancing protectionism and affecting global value chains, leading to a reevaluation of dependencies.

Remote work has become a large-scale experiment, with implications for the future of work and global hiring practices.

The social contract may change post-pandemic, with people expecting more from the state and potentially higher taxes.

The possibility of basic income being discussed in the aftermath of the pandemic is raised.

Derek Williams, a science correspondent, explains the unlikely transmission of COVID-19 through consuming meat.

The focus on wet markets in the pandemic's origin story and the potential for human-to-human transmission.

The immune system's response to reduced exposure to pathogens during lockdowns and its potential negligible impact.

Reports of liver damage in some COVID-19 patients, with ongoing research to understand the virus's effect on the liver.

The importance of understanding the pandemic's long-term effects on global economic and social structures.

Transcripts

open borders open markets an

interconnected world but has the

coronavirus and great lockdown made all

that history globalists they're people

that think we have to make the world

wealthy and our expense I don't even

know where these people come from but

those days are over as the world economy

slumps into recession

what sort of system will rise from the

ashes of this crisis for years

there's been a growing backlash against

globalization now the virus has put the

entire system at risk question is for

better or worse

this shop is like a mini universe with

dozens of different versions of our

planet a good place to pause for thought

what's happening to our world is the

corona virus killing globalization

observers say were facing three

scenarios first at the end of an era in

an interview French president among

whalemen crawl said we have to think the

unthinkable and that globalization is

reaching the end of its cycle but if

this a watershed moment in this scenario

politicians and industrialists withdraw

behind their borders companies localized

supply chains repatriate manufacturing

and stockpile supplies some leaders have

been calling for nationalism for a while

the future does not belong to globalists

the future belongs to patriots the

future belongs to sovereign and

independent nations some say that's

nonsense they expect things to pick up

where they left off in this scenario the

world goes back to what it does best

turbo capitalized high volume high speed

trade the intricate networks of supplies

of goods and profits have proven

themselves for many travel and data

transfers have never been so easy why

change that

when I was there globalization is an

external factor it's not to blame for

the virus so it's hard to imagine

everyone would go without the benefits

of globalization due to something from

beyond the system to put pressure on

finances prices and costs and so the

wheel keeps turning after all how can

you simply divorce the world from

globalization people talk a lot about

decoupling or they talk about the end of

globalization and its really a buzzword

that has very little practical meaning

the internet financial flows the way

supply chains are constructed it's very

difficult to think of a future where all

of that is eliminated difficult yes

but impossible some analysts point to a

potential reshaping of globalization a

new normal founded on morals and reason

the crisis could be the moment to push a

green economy a global Green Deal we've

seen how the climate can be protected

and the coronavirus has shaken us out of

complacency towards nature as well at a

moment where things are in flux there's

a lot of uncertainty anything could

happen

that window will will close in you know

in the next six to six months to a year

and then we'll be just back to wherever

we land after that period so does the

world see the pandemic merely as a

crisis that needs to be mastered or as

an opportunity

the mere fact the question is being

posed shows how far the parameters of

our world have shifted

and for more let's bring in viata yeah

Borat chick she's professor of economics

at the University of Oxford and chief

economist at the European Bank for

Reconstruction and Development it's good

to have you with us so what would you

say to an extent is the pandemic ringing

in the end of the global economic system

the way we know it the pandemic hit at

the time when the global economic system

has been under threat the World Trade

Organization has been weakened the

us-china trade war has not finished the

tensions between the US and China may

reignite at any moment so the biggest

threat to globalization is not coming

from the pandemic itself but rather from

the policy changes that may follow that

what you mentioned exactly the pandemic

is actually enhancing protectionism that

we've seen already before however does

becoming less dependent on countries

like China actually makes sense business

sense

well the pandemic will change the way we

think about global value chains in the

early days of the pandemic the world

suddenly became aware of how dependent

we are on China in terms of parts and

components in terms of medical equipment

in terms of antibiotics or ingredients

into for medications and I think the

world will now want to move away from

this concentration of suppliers towards

more resilience so we're going more

local and of course that does not just

apply for goods because globalization is

not just about moving Goods it's also

about moving people and ideas do you

think they'll still be a room for that

in a post corona economy well I don't

think we will necessarily go more local

I think when we think about global value

chains which have been optimized for

cost and which work beautifully if all

parts of the chain worked like clockwork

we've seen that during pandemic when

various countries going lock downs at

various points in time the whole system

breaks down

so the pendulum will switch from

cost-cutting to resilience will move

from just in time to just in case

and that means changing the geography of

supply chains building in redundancy

having more than one suppliers could

could it be that people could actually

benefit from that because you say it

worked wonderfully but globalization was

was harshly criticized for leaving many

many people behind so is now the perfect

time to to take a different attitude

towards work and and making a living

well we all have been thrown into this

giant experiment of remote work from one

day to another I mean many people have

been working remotely for part of the

time but there was a lot of hesitation

bosses were concerned that workers would

not work hard when at home and workers

were concerned that they would be passed

on for possible promotions if they don't

see their boss on daily basis now many

weeks into remote work first know

whether this setup works for them or not

but once you cross this psychological

threshold is border into remote work why

constrain yourself with local workers

why a firm in London or Berlin should

rely on workers based in the UK or

Germany why not hire somebody from

Poland or Romania so paradoxically

actually this shift may not be good for

local workers in advanced countries but

it may benefit countries with lower

wages for skilled workers at the same

time of course the pandemic has shown

that an awful lot of jobs and business

models are obsolete or certainly at risk

is now the time to discuss a basic

income I think after the pandemic we

will certainly have a conversation about

the social contract what it is that we

expect from this state in many countries

the social contract has relied on people

paying

in taxes and expecting little from the

state now I think people will want the

state to ensure the risk people will

want this state to provide more so

perhaps people will not go all the way

to basic universal basic income but

certainly the social contract is bound

to change towards more provision from

the state and naturally higher taxes all

right well let's let's wait and see what

the post corona world has in store for

us professor Beata yeah berchik thank

you so much for your time thank you

Monica

time for your questions now over to our

science correspondent Derek Williams

experts say if you eat meat from an

animal carrying the virus its destroyed

in the digestive tract so how does it

get into your respiratory system in

previous epidemics with corona viruses

like SARS and MERS transmission didn't

occur through food and to date there

have been no confirmed cases where

somebody contracted kovat 19 through

through eating meat so catching it that

way looks unlikely especially if the

meat is is cooked the Assumption

therefore is that the first person or

people who caught the virus didn't get

it from from eating an animal host but

by either being exposed via the air to

the living breathing animal as it shed

virus or through physical contact with a

dead one that's why there's been such a

focus on the wet market in wuhan

associated with the start of this

outbreak live and dead animals from the

wild were sold there after jumping

species to us

SARS co2 didn't need animal hosts to

spread any more it started passing from

human to human the staying inside weaken

your immune response because you aren't

being exposed to as many microbes

there's lots of evidence that spending

too much time indoors isn't great for

your immune system not least because

exposure to sunlight

vitamin D which is involved in the

immune response and and lockdowns can

affect things like the amount of

exercise you get or your sleeping

patterns which which also play major

roles in in overall health but but is

the immune system like a muscle that

wastes away if it's not regularly

challenged by pathogens it's it's true

that people like astronauts who are

confined for long periods can have

immune response problems but but don't

forget that they're also exposed to

things like like high levels of

radiation and weightlessness and even in

lockdown our isolation isn't like it is

for someone in space after all you still

have to get out and go to the store

every once in a while

so the general expert consensus seems to

be that the effects of lower exposure to

pathogens on your immune system should

be pretty negligible at least for a few

months is it true that those who've

recovered from cough in 19 have major

liver damage the health authorities

report that some people hospitalized for

kovat 19 do have increased levels of the

liver enzymes linked to liver damage

some estimates say almost half of all

patients could have those elevated

levels but but it still isn't clear

whether the rise is caused directly by

the virus invading the organ or whether

it's a collateral effect may be caused

by medications or or possibly the

patient's own immune response so current

research hasn't confirmed direct liver

damage that's unmistakably attributable

to tesora Skov - and and the kind of

acute damage you're talking about

certainly hasn't been reported in a

widespread way among people who have

recovered but but there are still many

ongoing studies looking at how the virus

affects the liver exactly and why

you