Menanti RAPBN 2025 di Nota Keuangan

CNN Indonesia

16 Aug 202404:54

Summary

TLDRThe transcript details President Joko Widodo's final financial speech to the Indonesian Parliament, outlining the 2025 APBN budget framework designed for the next president, Prabowo Subianto. It projects economic growth of 5.1% to 5.5%, inflation between 1.5% to 3.5%, and a rupiah exchange rate of Rp5,300 to Rp15,900 per US dollar. The budget includes expansive fiscal policies to accelerate inclusive and sustainable economic growth, with a deficit of 2.29% to 2.82% of GDP and public debt ratio of 37.82% to 38.71%. Critics argue that the government could reduce fuel subsidies to fund priority development programs. The potential for a budget revision by Prabowo after his inauguration is also discussed.

Takeaways

📅 The financial note on August 16, 2024, will be President Joko Widodo's last speech to the House of Representatives (DPR) during his second term.
📉 The 2025 State Budget (APBN) is planned for the next president, Prabowo Subianto, to continue the nation's development.
💼 President Joko Widodo will present the 2025 APBN draft on August 16 at the DPR RI, outlining the main macroeconomic framework and fiscal policies.
📈 The macroeconomic assumptions for 2025 include an economic growth range of 5.1% to 5.5%, inflation between 1.5% and 3.5%, and the Rupiah exchange rate fluctuating between Rp5,300 and Rp15,900 per US dollar.
🛑 Prabowo Subianto aims to reduce poverty levels to 7-8% and unemployment rates below 5% by focusing on development indicators for 2025.
💼 The national treasurer states that the government will manage policies in the remaining time and oversee until the government transition.
🔄 There might be some discretion from the elected president, but since the current president is presenting to the current DPR, some details may not be fully determined until they occur.
📊 The 2025 APBN already includes several expansive fiscal policies from President Prabowo Sudianto, focusing on inclusive and sustainable economic growth, resulting in a budget deficit of 2.29% to 2.82% of GDP.
💔 Criticisms include the government's opportunity to reduce fuel subsidies due to the large needs for priority development programs like the Giant Seawall and free meals.
📈 The potential for additional debt is highlighted as the budget deficit is widened from 1.9% to 2.5% to 2.8%, which could increase future debt burdens.
🏗️ The development of the iBuotota project is noted as a future burden on the APBN, especially considering the lack of foreign investor participation to date, which may lead to a revision of the APBN by Prabowo to increase the non-Tax State Revenue (PNBP) budget above 20%.

Q & A

What is the significance of the financial note on August 16, 2024, for President Joko Widodo?
-The financial note on August 16, 2024, is significant as it will be President Joko Widodo's last speech at the DPR during his second term, outlining the macroeconomic framework and fiscal policies for the 2025 state budget.
Who is the 2025 state budget designed for, and what is its purpose?
-The 2025 state budget is designed for the next president, Prabowo Subianto, to facilitate the continuation of national development.
What are the projected macroeconomic indicators for 2025 according to the financial note?
-The projected macroeconomic indicators for 2025 include an economic growth rate of 5.1% to 5.5%, inflation ranging from 1.5% to 3.5%, the value of the Rupiah against the US dollar ranging from Rp5,300 to Rp15,900, and crude oil prices ranging from $75 to $5 per barrel.
What are Prabowo Subianto's targets for poverty and unemployment rates in 2025?
-Prabowo Subianto aims to reduce the poverty rate to between 7% and 8%, and to bring down the unemployment rate to below 5%.
What is the fiscal deficit ratio projected for the 2025 state budget?
-The fiscal deficit ratio for the 2025 state budget is projected to be between 2.29% and 2.82% of the GDP.
What is the potential impact of the fiscal policies on the national debt ratio?
-The national debt ratio is expected to be between 37.82% and 38.71% of the GDP, indicating an increase in potential national debt.
What are the criticisms regarding the government's budget for the 2025 state budget?
-Critics argue that the government has the opportunity to reduce the fuel subsidy budget, considering the significant needs for priority development programs such as the Giant Seawall and free nutrition meals.
What is the potential for a budget revision after President Prabowo's inauguration?
-After President Prabowo's inauguration, there is a high likelihood of a budget revision for the 2025 state budget to accommodate his programs.
What is the concern regarding the additional debt that could be incurred by the next administration?
-There is a concern that the additional debt could increase the national debt burden in the future, especially if it reaches the current level of 16 trillion by the end of President Prabowo's term.
What is the issue with the development of the capital city in Nusantara, and how might it affect the state budget?
-The development of the capital city in Nusantara is a concern due to the lack of foreign investor participation, which could lead to a need for a budget revision to increase the non-tax state revenue (IKN) allocation above 20% to continue the commitment to the project.
What is the potential for discretionary actions by the incoming government regarding the 2025 state budget?
-The incoming government, under President Prabowo, will have significant discretion to navigate and explain the 2025 state budget, which may lead to policy changes and adjustments in the remaining time of the current administration.

Outlines

00:00

📊 Final Presidential Budget Speech and Economic Outlook

The script details the final budget speech by President Joko Widodo to the House of Representatives (DPR) on August 16, 2024, marking the end of his second term. The 2025 State Budget (APBN) is designed for the incoming president, Prabowo Subianto, to continue the nation's development. The financial note includes the macroeconomic framework and fiscal policies, with projected economic growth between 5.1% to 5.5%, inflation ranging from 1.5% to 3.5%, and the exchange rate of the Indonesian Rupiah against the US dollar fluctuating between Rp13,500 to Rp15,900. Crude oil prices are expected to range between $75 to $85 per barrel. Prabowo Subianto aims to reduce poverty and unemployment rates significantly and improve the country's development indicators. The national treasurer also mentions the discretionary power of the elected government in the remaining time and the potential for policy changes by the incoming administration. The current cabinet and DPR are tasked with discussing the 2025 APBN, which includes expansive fiscal policies to accelerate inclusive and sustainable economic growth, resulting in a budget deficit of 2.29% to 2.82% of GDP and public debt ratios of 37.82% to 38.71% of GDP.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Presiden

The term 'Presiden' refers to the President in Indonesian, which is the highest political office in the country. In the context of the video, it is used to refer to Joko Widodo, the current president, and Prabowo Subianto, the president-elect. The script discusses the transition of power and the economic policies of both administrations.

💡DPR

DPR stands for 'Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat', which translates to the People's Representative Council in English. It is the legislative body in Indonesia. The script mentions that the current president will present the 2025 state budget plan to the DPR, indicating the legislative process involved in approving the budget.

💡APBN

APBN stands for 'Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara', which is the State Budget in Indonesia. The script discusses the 2025 APBN, which is a plan for the country's revenue and expenditure for the next fiscal year, and how it has been designed for the next president to implement.

💡Kerangka Ekonomi Makro

This term translates to 'Macroeconomic Framework' and refers to the broad economic policies and principles that guide a country's economic management. The script mentions this framework in relation to the 2025 budget plan, indicating the economic assumptions and targets for the next administration.

💡Pertumbuhan Ekonomi

This translates to 'Economic Growth', which is a key indicator of a country's economic health. The script provides a projected range of economic growth (5.1% to 5.5%) as part of the macroeconomic assumptions for 2025, showing the government's expectations for the economy under the new administration.

💡Inflasi

Inflasi means 'Inflation', which is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising. The script mentions an inflation range (1.5% to 3.5%) as part of the economic assumptions for 2025, indicating the government's aim to control the rise in prices.

💡Nilai Tukar Rupiah

This term refers to the 'Exchange Rate of the Rupiah', which is the value of Indonesia's currency in relation to other currencies, particularly the US Dollar. The script provides a projected range for the Rupiah's exchange rate, which is crucial for international trade and investment.

💡Harga Minyak Mentah

This translates to 'Crude Oil Prices', which is an important economic indicator for countries that are significant oil producers or consumers. The script mentions a projected price range for crude oil, which can impact the Indonesian economy due to its reliance on oil imports.

💡Defisit Anggaran

Defisit Anggaran means 'Budget Deficit', which is the amount by which a government's expenditures exceed its revenues. The script discusses the projected budget deficit for 2025 (2.29% to 2.82% of GDP), indicating the government's fiscal strategy under the new administration.

💡Rasio Utang

This term translates to 'Debt Ratio', which is the proportion of a country's debt to its GDP. The script mentions a projected debt ratio range (37.82% to 38.71% of GDP), reflecting the government's fiscal health and its capacity to service its debt.

💡Pembangunan

Pembangunan means 'Development', which refers to the process of improving a country's economic, social, and political structures. The script discusses development programs such as the Giant Seawall and free nutrition programs, which are part of the government's priorities for the next administration.

💡Kemiskinan

Kemiskinan translates to 'Poverty', which is a critical social issue that governments aim to address. The script mentions the government's goal to reduce poverty rates, indicating a focus on social welfare and economic inclusion in the next administration's policies.

💡Pengangguran

Pengangguran means 'Unemployment', which is the percentage of the labor force that is without work but available for and seeking employment. The script discusses the government's aim to reduce unemployment rates, reflecting efforts to improve job opportunities and economic stability.

💡RUU APBN

RUU APBN stands for 'Rancangan Undang-Undang Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara', which is the draft law for the State Budget in Indonesia. The script mentions the completion of this draft law, which is a crucial legislative step in finalizing the budget plan for the next fiscal year.

💡Diskresi

Diskresi refers to 'Discretion', which is the power to make decisions or judgments free from the control of others. The script discusses the discretion of the president-elect in making policy decisions during the transition period, highlighting the flexibility in implementing the budget plan.

💡Konsekuensi Defisit

This term translates to 'Consequences of the Deficit', which refers to the potential impacts of a budget deficit on a country's economy. The script discusses the implications of the projected deficit for the next administration's economic programs and fiscal sustainability.

💡Pembangunan Ibu Kota Nusantara

This term refers to the 'Development of the New Capital of Nusantara', which is a major infrastructure project to build a new capital city in Indonesia. The script mentions this project as a potential burden on the state budget, indicating the significant financial commitment required for its realization.

💡Investor Asing

Investor Asing means 'Foreign Investors', which are individuals or entities from outside the country that invest in its economy. The script mentions the lack of foreign investor participation in the new capital project, which could impact the funding and execution of this large-scale development initiative.

💡Revisi Anggaran

Revisi Anggaran translates to 'Budget Revision', which is the process of making changes to the initial budget plan. The script suggests that the new president may need to revise the budget after taking office, reflecting the dynamic nature of fiscal planning and the need to adapt to changing circumstances.

Highlights

President Joko Widodo's final speech to the DPR during his second term.

The 2025 APBN (State Budget) is designed for the next president, Prabowo Subianto.

Economic macro-framework and fiscal policies for the first year of Prabowo's presidency are outlined.

Economic growth projection for 2025 is between 5.1% to 5.5%.

Inflation rate is expected to range from 1.5% to 3.5%.

Indonesian Rupiah exchange rate is projected to be between Rp 5,300 to Rp 15,900 per US dollar.

Crude oil price is estimated to range between $75 to $85 per barrel in 2025.

Prabowo Subianto aims to reduce poverty levels to 7-8% or less.

Unemployment rate target is set to be below 5%.

Fiscal deficit ratio is planned to be between 0.380.

The government will finalize the 2025 APBN law within the remaining 1.5 months of the current administration.

There may be discretionary actions by the president-elect affecting the APBN 2025.

The current cabinet and DPR will continue to communicate and navigate the 2025 APBN.

The 2025 APBN includes expansive fiscal policies for inclusive and sustainable economic growth.

Deficit budget consequences are projected to be between 2.29% to 2.82% of GDP.

Debt ratio is expected to be between 37.82% to 38.71% of GDP.

Criticism of the government's opportunity to reduce fuel subsidies due to development priorities.

The possibility of Prabowo issuing a budget revision after his inauguration.

Deficit budget expansion from 1.9% to 2.5% to 2.8%, indicating potential additional debt.

Concerns about the potential increase in national debt under Prabowo's administration.

The development of the iBuot Nusantara project as a burden for the APBN without foreign investor participation.

Prabowo may revise the APBN to increase the non-tax state revenue budget above 20%.