Why the Hindenburg storm is NOT over yet | How stock prices move? | Akshat Shrivastava

Akshat Shrivastava
13 Aug 202419:16

Summary

TLDRThe video discusses the ongoing Hindenburg issue's impact on the Indian stock market, emphasizing the importance of understanding macroeconomic factors and stock price movements. It explains the supply and demand dynamics affecting stock prices and the role of counter buyers. The speaker warns of potential market corrections, particularly for small and mid-cap stocks, and advises investors to focus on fundamentals, diversify portfolios, and prepare for volatility. The video also touches on the Indian job market's challenges and promotes a master class on AI for skill enhancement.

Takeaways

  • ๐Ÿ“‰ The Hindenburg issue is not resolved and has implications for the Indian stock market, particularly with short positions built for the September to November period.
  • ๐Ÿ“ˆ Despite celebrations of the Indian stock market's resilience, the real concern is the potential impact around November due to Hindenburg's short positions.
  • ๐Ÿค” The video emphasizes the importance of understanding how stock prices move, debunking the simplistic view that stock prices rise with good results and fall with bad.
  • ๐Ÿ“Š The script explains the supply and demand concept in stock pricing, highlighting how changes in demand can shift the demand curve and affect stock prices.
  • ๐Ÿ“‰ The video discusses the risk to different types of stocks, including Adani stocks and HDFC stock, and the potential for overvalued stocks to become hyper overvalued.
  • ๐Ÿ’ผ The speaker recommends learning high-impact skills like artificial intelligence, especially in times of economic uncertainty, and mentions a free master class for the first 1,000 sign-ups.
  • ๐ŸŒ The video touches on the political sensitivity of the Hindenburg report and the allegations against the CB chairman, urging investors to focus on macroeconomics and investing rather than taking political sides.
  • ๐Ÿ’ก The importance of understanding the role of counter buyers in the stock market is highlighted, explaining how the absence of buyers can lead to a fall in stock prices.
  • ๐Ÿ“Š The script points out that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) are not heavily investing in the Indian market, which contrasts with domestic institutional investors (DIIs) that are actively buying.
  • ๐Ÿ“ˆ The growth of Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) and their contribution to the Indian market is noted, but there's a warning about the potential risk if retail investors slow down their SIP investments.
  • ๐ŸŒ The video concludes with advice for investors to diversify internationally, prepare for market volatility, avoid buying stocks based on nationalism, and focus on fundamentals to preserve investments.

Q & A

  • What is the main issue discussed in the video?

    -The main issue discussed in the video is the Hindenburg issue and its impact on the Indian stock market, particularly the short positions built by Hindenburg for the period of September to November.

  • Why is the Hindenburg issue still a concern according to the video?

    -The Hindenburg issue is still a concern because Hindenburg has built massive short positions in the Indian market for November, which could potentially affect the stock prices and market stability.

  • What is the role of supply and demand in stock price movement as explained in the video?

    -The video explains that stock prices move based on the supply and demand graph. When demand for a stock decreases, the demand curve shifts leftwards, leading to a lower stock price at the new intersection point of the supply and demand curves.

  • Why is the speaker cautious about the Indian job market in the context of the stock market?

    -The speaker is cautious about the Indian job market because the unemployment rate is rising, which can affect consumer confidence and spending, potentially impacting the stock market.

  • What is the significance of the master class mentioned in the video?

    -The master class mentioned in the video is significant because it offers an opportunity to learn high-impact skills like artificial intelligence, which can be beneficial in times of market volatility and unemployment.

  • What are the two key rounds between Adani and Hindenburg as described in the video?

    -The first round was when Hindenburg shorted a lot of Adani stocks in January 2023, and the second round started recently when Hindenburg targeted the Chairman of Adani, making allegations and engaging in a back-and-forth of clarifications.

  • How does the video explain the impact of FII (Foreign Institutional Investors) on the Indian stock market?

    -The video explains that FII have been net sellers in the Indian market for the last few years, which means they are not buying into the market, which could be a concern for market stability.

  • What is the role of DII (Domestic Institutional Investors) in the Indian stock market as per the video?

    -DII are the ones creating counter buying positions in the Indian market, supporting it whenever it falls. They are buying the stocks that FII are not, and their actions are largely funded by the increasing SIP (Systematic Investment Plan) contributions from retail investors.

  • What is the potential risk to the Indian stock market according to the video?

    -The potential risk to the Indian stock market is that it is heavily dependent on SIP contributions from retail investors, which could be volatile. If there is a shock in the market or a slowdown in SIP contributions, the market could be hit very hard.

  • What advice does the speaker give to investors regarding portfolio management in the current market scenario?

    -The speaker advises investors to diversify their portfolio internationally, be prepared for market volatility, avoid buying stocks based on nationalism or emotions, and focus on fundamentals to preserve their investments.

Outlines

00:00

๐Ÿ“‰ Hindenburg's Impact on Indian Stock Market

The video discusses the ongoing concerns regarding Hindenburg's short position in the Indian market, emphasizing that despite recent celebrations, the situation is still concerning as massive short positions were built for the period around November. The speaker also plans to explain the dynamics of stock price movements and the risks associated with different types of stocks, such as those of Adani and HDFC. Additionally, the video touches on the rising unemployment rate in India and promotes a master class on artificial intelligence for skill development.

05:01

๐Ÿ“ˆ Understanding Stock Price Movements and Market Influences

This paragraph delves into the mechanics of how stock prices move, focusing on the supply and demand graph. It explains that stock prices are determined by the intersection of supply and demand curves, and that changes in demand can significantly affect prices. The speaker uses examples of overvalued stocks and counter buyers to illustrate how demand is manipulated in the market. The paragraph also discusses the role of domestic institutional investors (DIIs) in supporting the Indian market and the importance of understanding market trends and the behavior of foreign institutional investors (FIIs).

10:01

๐Ÿ’น Market Trends and the Role of SIP Contributions

The speaker outlines current market trends in India, highlighting that foreign institutional investors are not actively buying into the Indian market, while domestic institutional investors are supported by a significant rise in systematic investment plan (SIP) contributions. This growth in SIP investments has led to a dependency on retail investors, which could pose a risk if these investors withdraw their investments due to market shocks. The video warns of the potential for a severe market correction if retail investors become volatile.

15:01

๐ŸŒ Diversification and Managing Valuation Risk

The final paragraph emphasizes the importance of international diversification and being prepared for market volatility. The speaker advises against investing based on nationalism and instead encourages investors to focus on fundamentals. The video also discusses the concept of valuation risk, suggesting that the market is currently at an all-time high and vulnerable to a significant correction. The speaker concludes by urging investors to study the fundamentals of stocks, diversify their investments, and be prepared for potential market fluctuations.

Mindmap

Keywords

๐Ÿ’กHindenburg issue

The 'Hindenburg issue' refers to the controversy surrounding Hindenburg Research's allegations against the Adani Group, an Indian multinational conglomerate. In the video, it is mentioned as an ongoing concern that could impact the Indian stock market, with the speaker emphasizing that the issue is not over yet and has led to short positions being built for the months of September to November.

๐Ÿ’กShort position

A 'short position' in stock trading is a strategy where an investor, like Hindenburg, bets that a stock's price will decrease. The video discusses how Hindenburg has built its short position in the Indian market, which is significant for understanding the potential market movements and the risks associated with it.

๐Ÿ’กSupply and demand

The 'supply and demand' concept is a fundamental economic principle that determines the price of goods, including stocks. In the video, it is used to explain how stock prices move based on the dynamics between the supply of stocks and the demand from investors. The script uses this concept to illustrate how a reduction in demand can lead to a drop in stock prices.

๐Ÿ’กStock price movement

The movement of a 'stock price' is the change in the value of a stock over time. The video provides an in-depth explanation of how stock prices are influenced by factors beyond just company performance, such as market sentiment and investor behavior, particularly focusing on the role of supply and demand.

๐Ÿ’กCounter buyers

'Counter buyers' are investors who are willing to buy a stock at a certain price when it is being sold by another party. The video script explains the concept of 'order book matching' and how the absence of counter buyers can lead to a stock price falling as sellers lower their asking price to find a buyer.

๐Ÿ’กForeign Institutional Investors (FII)

Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) are entities that invest in a country's financial markets from outside that country. The video highlights the trend of FII selling in the Indian market over the past few years, which is a key point in understanding the lack of foreign investment and its potential impact on the market.

๐Ÿ’กDomestic Institutional Investors (DII)

Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) are entities within a country that invest in its own financial markets. The video points out that DIIs have been the primary counter buyers in the Indian market, supporting it through SIP contributions, which is a critical insight into the market's current dynamics.

๐Ÿ’กSystematic Investment Plan (SIP)

A 'Systematic Investment Plan' (SIP) is a method of investing in which a retail investor commits to invest a fixed amount at regular intervals, typically monthly. The video emphasizes the exponential growth of SIP contributions as a significant factor in the Indian market's resilience and potential vulnerability.

๐Ÿ’กValuation risk

'Valuation risk' is the risk that the price of a security is higher than its intrinsic value, which could lead to a correction or a drop in price. The video discusses the current high market valuation and the potential for a significant fall if the market experiences a shock or if support from retail investors wanes.

๐Ÿ’กMarket correction

A 'market correction' is a decline of at least 10% from the recent peak of a stock market index. The video warns of a potential market correction, particularly for small and mid-cap stocks, which are more susceptible to rapid and significant price changes due to their higher risk profiles and reliance on DII support.

๐Ÿ’กDiversification

Diversification is a risk management strategy that involves spreading investments across various financial instruments, industries, or other categories to mitigate risk. The video suggests that investors should consider diversifying their portfolios internationally to reduce the risk associated with the Indian market's current dynamics.

๐Ÿ’กFundamentals

In investing, 'fundamentals' refer to the financial and economic characteristics of a company or an asset that determine its intrinsic value. The video emphasizes the importance of buying stocks based on their fundamentals rather than sentiment or nationalism, to ensure that investments are sound and can withstand market volatility.

Highlights

The Hindenburg issue's impact on the Indian stock market is still unfolding, with short positions built for September to November.

Investors should be concerned about the potential market fall around November due to Hindenburg's massive short positions.

Unemployment in India is rising, nearing 9%, indicating a concerning economic situation.

Learning high-impact skills like AI can be beneficial during uncertain economic times.

The video explains the complex dynamics of stock prices and market movements in a simple manner.

The first round of Hindenburg's shorting of Adani stocks occurred in January 2023, with stocks yet to recover.

The second round of Hindenburg's actions targets the Chairman of Adani Group, with allegations and clarifications being exchanged.

Investors should focus on macroeconomics and investing rather than taking political sides in the Hindenburg issue.

Understanding the supply and demand graph is crucial for grasping how stock prices move in the market.

Overvalued stocks can become hyper overvalued if demand increases, as seen in the case of Vai Renewables.

HDFC Bank and Kotak Bank's stock prices have not risen despite revenue and profit doubling due to stagnant demand.

Counter buyers play a significant role in managing or moving the demand of a stock.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been net sellers in the Indian market for the past few years.

Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) are the primary counter buyers in the Indian market, supported by SIP contributions.

A potential shock in the market could lead to a severe hit on Indian markets due to reliance on retail SIP investments.

Small and mid-cap stocks are particularly at risk during market corrections due to their high risk profile and DII support.

Market valuation risk is present as the Indian market is at an all-time high, with the potential for a significant fall.

International diversification and being prepared for volatility are recommended strategies for investors.

Avoid displaying nationalism by investing in specific private companies without considering their fundamentals.

The importance of transparency and trust in attracting foreign investment, crucial for a strong economy and stock market.

Investors should focus on reducing valuation risk and preserving their investments in the face of potential global shocks.

Transcripts

play00:00

hi everyone welcome to today's video so

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on this video I'm going to help you

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understand systematically why the

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Hindenburg issue is not over yet and

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what are some of the key points that you

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must remember this video is especially

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important if you have invested a lot of

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money in the Indian stock market right

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now now the reason why I'm saying

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Hindenburg issue is not over yet take a

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look at this graphic it shows that

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Hindenburg has built its short position

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for September to November right in last

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Zone it has built today people are

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celebrating you know what Indian stock

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market did not fall and it is great that

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Indian stock market did not fall I

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myself has invested a lot of money in

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the Indian stock market I don't want it

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to fall but the situation is not

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regarding today the situation is

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regarding what happens around November

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right because that is when massive short

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positions are built on the Indian market

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by Hindenburg so that is the explanation

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that I'm going to give you all right

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additionally I will also speak about the

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fact that how does exactly a stock price

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move what is the risk to different type

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of stocks like adani stocks HDFC stock

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all that stuff so I'm going to have that

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conversation with you and I'm going to

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explain this entire very complicated

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story in very simple points so let's go

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Point by point and also on that note

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that since we are very worried about the

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market Fall we should equally be worried

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about the job fall in the Indian job

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markets right now the unemployment rate

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is rising in India like anything it is

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hitting close to 9% now which is a very

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bad situation so during Times Like These

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you can learn high impact skills like

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artificial intelligence and in order to

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do that I would highly recommend you to

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check out the master master class that

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is being organized by growth school this

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master class is usually a paid master

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class but for first 1,000 people who

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sign up using my link this master class

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will be provided for free on this AI

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driven Master Class you will learn about

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personal brand building you will learn

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about data strategies salary hike

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strategies solving bigger and complex

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data problems by using AI within a few

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minutes now this Workshop is useful for

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anyone who is coming from a freelancer

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background business building background

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entrepreneur software engineer marketing

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professional so do check out the

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workshop it includes s bonuses the class

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will happen at 7:00 p.m. so in case you

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are interested you can check out the

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links in the description and comment box

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so with that said let's move over to the

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main video so the first key point that

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you must understand is the entire

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Hindenburg adani SL sa chairman Saga

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right so the first round was between

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adani and Hindenburg and in that round

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Hindenburg shorted a lot of adani stocks

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they probably booked profits in it I

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don't know I'm not privy to that and

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that thing happened in January of 2023

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for example if I just show you so here

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is where the the Hindenburg shot was

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right and till date adani Enterprise has

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not recovered similarly a few other

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adani stocks since that time Hindenberg

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has shed adani stocks they haven't yet

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recovered so this is a very important

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point that we must be aware of so this

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was round one between adani and

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Hindenburg the second round started

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literally like 3 4 days back when

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Hindenberg came out that hey we are

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going to like you know sort of do some

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Daka in the Indian stock market and then

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eventually it turned out that you know

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they were targeting the gun towards the

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sav chairman right and they said that

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you know what okay there are like some

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allegations against her that she

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diverted funds to a foreign

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entity I don't want to rehash the case

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because this is a very politically

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sensitive case people are taking sides I

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don't want to get into the middle of all

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this so I will leave the Judgment up to

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you Hindenburg has issued their entire

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report the CB chairman and her husband

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has explained what their Viewpoint was

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then another round of allegation was

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made by Hindenberg and then a lot of

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clarification back and forth is

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happening right so this is where the

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case is we as investor should not be

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taking political sides here so let us

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focus on the macroeconomics the

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investing part of it which brings us to

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point number two right and this is a

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very important point and the point has

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to do with the fact that exactly how do

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stock prices move now people are not

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understanding how exactly stock prices

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are moved in a particular Market we

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assume that you know what boss when good

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results come the stock Rises and when

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bad results comes the stock Falls that's

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a childish understanding of the stock

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market so in the next 1 one and a half

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let me give you the Practical explainer

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as to why do the stock prices move and

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for this you need to understand two

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concepts okay so the first key concept

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is a graph called as supply and demand

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curve or supply and demand graph of the

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stock market so it looks something like

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this right so this is the supply of any

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stock or any asset for example nifty 50

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and demand curve is downward sloping

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okay now typically what happens is that

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the supply of stocks usually Remains the

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Same it's not as if that h tomorrow will

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suddenly increase more number of stocks

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or more number of outstanding stocks or

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Adis are going to usually increase their

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number of outstanding stocks please

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notice the word usually of course the

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stock supply can also be increased but

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generally it does not go up dramatically

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compared to demand so wherever the

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supply curve and demand curve meets that

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explains the price of a stock right so

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this let's quote it P1 now what happens

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is that in order to move any particular

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stock price the demand of the stock is

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played with for example Hindenberg came

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out and

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said what is the goal of Hindenburg well

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the goal of Hindenberg is to move the

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demand reduce the demand of stocks or in

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general the Indian market demand they

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want to kill it or like you know they

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want to reduce it so if they are able to

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successfully reduce it right then this

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demand curve will shift leftwards and we

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will get a new intersection Point

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somewhere here and that leads to a fall

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in price P2 okay so this is how a stock

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price change now there are two three

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related points for example there could

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be a massively overvalued stock and I

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will show you the example also now that

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Stock's fair value should be let's say

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150 rupees okay you are watching it

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today and it keeps on going up it goes

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to 250 rupees now can you definitely say

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that it will fall from this point the

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short answer is no an overvalued stock

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can become hyper overvalued if the

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demand of the stock can be increased a

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classic case study is that of Vari

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Renewables so take a look at this this

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literally looks like a pump and dump and

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the stock was taken up like 30 times or

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40 times right from its basic price

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there was no improvement in fundamentals

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but the stock went up why because the

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demand of the stock was managed right

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this is first very important Point

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second key Point our second key example

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is that of HDFC bank and cotk bank right

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for example right now you might be

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scratching your head take a look at this

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graphic you will see that in the last

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four years the revenues of HDFC Bank

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cotch Bank have doubled profits have

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doubled there is no issue with the stock

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but the stock is moving in a range why

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because the demand of the stock is not

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going up this is the insightful point

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that you should know that brings me to

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related point about the supply and

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demand of the stock that how exactly is

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the demand of a stock managed or moved

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right so for this you need to understand

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the concept of counter buyers right so

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now what is the meaning of counter

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buyers so let me explain it by showing

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you the actual trade book so what you

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will notice is that see this is ITC

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stock so on the left side you are seeing

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the buyers right buyers and on the right

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side you're seeing sellers right red

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sellers okay and this concept is called

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as order book matching so let's assume

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that the price of ITC currently is 265

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okay and you want to sell right so you

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are one seller and you have one stock so

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you will place one bid to sell ITC at

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265 rupees now if you get one buyer at

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265 rupees then this trade is executed

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right and you get money in your account

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and all that stuff subsequently clearing

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process right so we are not getting into

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the technicalities of it now the reason

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why a stock price Falls is this that hey

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now you are trying to sell ITC at 265

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you have one stock and you don't get a

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counter buyer there is no one who is

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willing to buy this stock so what will

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happen next you will place the bit 265

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to 263 P then you again don't get a

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counter buyer you keep on doing that

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exercise and at 250 you get your one

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buyer to buy this stock so this is

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called as order book matching that your

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order got matched at 250 rupe and

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therefore the price of the stock fell

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from 265 to 250 right so this is the

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meaning of falling of the stock this was

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a technical explanation that I wanted to

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give you and understanding these Salient

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points is going to make you a better

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investor so in case you are interested

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in learning more about such fundamental

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points I explain it on my member

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Community excellent reviews about the

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community so far so in case you want to

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check it out I will put the link in the

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description and comment box I also teach

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International investing I personally

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putting a lot of my money for

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diversification purposes outside India

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now any sensible investor should be

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hedged right uh we are retail investors

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we don't know what is going to happen

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what news is going to come all that

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stuff so I teach that style of investing

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also so in case you are interested you

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can definitely check it out so anyways

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coming back and now explaining this

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concept at a market level in India there

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are two very important trends that are

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happening in India right now in fact

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there are two three Trends so I'll

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explain it very very quickly the first

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key trend is that FIS are not buying

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into the Indian market too much this is

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not my opinion this is what is happening

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for the last 3 4 years so I will show

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you the data you can see year-wise data

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of FIS so FIS mean foreign institutional

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investors these are foreign players

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right so in 2024 they are net Sellers

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and they have sold very aggressively in

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2023 again fiis have sold the Indian

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market they bought the Indian market in

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these three years right but in total the

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first two tabs and and in total G the

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second tab right then you will see that

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they are in the last 1 2 3 4 5 almost 5

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years F have been net sellers or they

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have not bought the India market very

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very important point and you must

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understand this okay so this is fact

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number one fact number two then who is

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actually buying it and who are the

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counter buyers in the Indian market it

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is the dii now what is the meaning of di

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diis are they are like HDFC AMC nepon M

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AMC all the fund managers and all that

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stuff who are domestic institutional

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players they are the ones buying the

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Indian market okay now comes the

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question that hey where are they getting

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the money to buy the Indian market from

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and why are they buying the Indian

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market okay so for this you need to know

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fact number three which has to do with

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SIP contribution so for example this is

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the entire chart take a look at this

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that the total sip contribution in

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October of 2016 was

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3,434 crores this has gone almost five

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times right in October of 2023 so in

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almost 7 years 5x growth this is massive

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right now why am I talking about sip

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because the way this model works is that

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see you are retail investors you will

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run your sip every month every first of

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the month you will give like 50,000

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Rupees as investment to your fund

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manager mutual funds whatever you invest

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in this is given to companies like HDFC

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AMC right this is given to companies

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like nipon this is given to companies

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like edel Vice and all that stuff they

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are diis right they pick your money

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right and then they end up buying or

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creating those counter buyer positions

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that I was telling you about right so

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this is very important fact and if you

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relate all these two three facts let me

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sumarize because I'm getting to

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something interesting here number one

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foreign institutional investors are not

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buying the Indian market number two diis

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are the ones who are actually creating

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counter buying positions in the Indian

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market and supporting it whenever it

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falls and number three the Sip

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contribution is rising like anything and

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there has been exponential growth of sip

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Investments which brings us to very

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interesting prognosis of the Indian

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market and this is something that you

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need to be very very careful about and

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the fact is that see if for some reason

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there is shock in the market that for

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example retail investors are not very

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comfortable doing sip or they slow down

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their sip or if there is any kind of

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panic in the market in the Sip Market in

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in in India because retail investors are

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very flimsy right I mean they are not

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like that well versed with investing

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World they have not gone through a lot

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of hardening process per experience

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right so for them they are much more

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volatile right so they can leave the

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market at any point in time so in case

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there is a world oriented shock Indian

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markets are going to get hit very very

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badly this is not my opinion this is

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what the data tells us this is point two

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because fi money is not coming to India

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to be honest the FI type of stocks are

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not giving a run up now these are stocks

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like HDFC Bank kotch bank right clean

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clean companies uh um why am I telling

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you these are fi type of stocks because

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FIS what they do is that they do hedging

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right so hedging that for example they

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are buying HDFC Bank in the cash market

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and they might be selling HDFC Bank in

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the Futures Market why because they are

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hedging their position ha ha 2 2,000

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crores they will buy it in one go they

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cannot be sitting on so many naked

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positions per se they have to hedge it

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they have to protect or buy a type of an

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insurance otherwise they can go bankrupt

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right so they can only do this fno on

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limited set of stocks in India and this

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is one of the reasons why HDFC bank and

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KK Bank type of stock haven't really

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given a run up because last 3 4 years fi

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money has hardly come to India so this

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is fact number one fact number two that

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there are certain types of stocks that

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diis prefer to buy right and for example

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small cap midcap category is entirely or

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almost entirely supported by diis or

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domestic institutions not by Foreign

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institutions per se because the risk

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profile of these stocks is very high

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okay the sumission of these two points

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is that if you combine these two things

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whenever the market correction happens

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small and midgap are sitting on a keg of

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powder right and they can go down very

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aggressively this is point one point two

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certain stocks where there are no

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fundamentals but they are still being

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bought by diis because of wide variety

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of reasons I'll not go into them they

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will fall like anything okay whenever

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the correction happens I have zero

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interest in politics I'm simply trying

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to tell you and teach you these points

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so that if you if this logic makes sense

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you can reorganize your portfolio a bit

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see small and midgap you have to be

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confident you know Market is going to

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survive nothing bad is going to happen

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fundamentally weak stocks you should cut

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positions not because ke they cannot

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rise they can continue to

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rise and keep getting money and they

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keep on pumping in like small capap

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midcap stocks then they can keep on

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Rising but right now there is valuation

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risk in the market now what is the

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meaning of valuation risk let me explain

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that also by using some technicals so

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okay so valuation risk means that you

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can see that this is the trading

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long-term trading Channel we are

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somewhere here at the support right now

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if this support gets broken there is

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another 10% fall now 10% fall is for the

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broad Market the large caps but there is

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at least a 20% fall for small and mid

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gaps here right so this is the valuation

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risk that we are running right now

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because the market is at an all-time

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high and any kind of global shock for

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example if there is some war that breaks

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out right and it gets escalated then

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these are all Global risks that is there

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so therefore at this stage you should

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focus on reducing your valuation risk

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why because F or foreign institutional

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investors are also exactly doing the

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same right they are going to safer

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markets right safer markets now what are

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safer markets safer markets are where

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the valuation risk is less that's a

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second there is more investor trust now

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there is not an easy way for me to

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explain this so I'll use a very simple

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example what constitutes as a good

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economy right so for example let's say

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that we are talking about our domestic

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tourism now people used to come to Goa

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now because a statue has been built in

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Gujarat now those same domestic touris

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start going to Gujarat do you think that

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this is real addition to our economy the

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short answer is no right that money

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would have anyways come to Goa but

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instead of coming to Goa now it is just

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simply going to Gujarat per se okay so

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this is not like real increase in

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prosperity or leading to any economic

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strength per se okay so this is 0.1 but

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on the flip side consider for example BJ

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Khalifa right now BJ Khalifa in Dubai it

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attracts a lot of foreign tourist they

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come with it carry their National

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currency from Sweden or like India they

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convert it into Duram and put this into

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Dubai economy or UAE economy now do you

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think that in the second example the

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economy is getting strengthened the

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short answer is yes right and you don't

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require like massive understanding of

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Economics to understand this basic

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simple point so similarly in the stock

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market or for any economy it is very

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critical that we bring foreign money in

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and that requires transparency that

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requires trust for example again I will

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speak from uae's example so U real

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estate has been giving very good returns

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why is that because if you go and check

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on this website call as Beth right you

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will see that every single transaction

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that happens in real estate has been put

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on a blockchain you can track that which

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apartment in which locality got sold for

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which price what was the square fot or

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square meter of that apartment that is a

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level of transparency but do you feel

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okay transacting in like Indian real

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estate no there is massive opacity you

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don't know like you know how much back

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wide green money pink money is there and

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all that stuff no idea of rates whatnot

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so there is no transparency what do you

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think foreigners do do foreigners really

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buy real estate in India no so very less

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very few foreigners would be buying it

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similarly if similar situation starts

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happening in the Indian Equity Market we

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will entirely be dependent on your sips

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that is the simple point you give your

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sip till the time your sips are going

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markets will keep on going up whatever

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random stocks need to be purchased will

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be purchased from that perspective and

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whenever it corrects Whenever there is

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any kind of external shock you are

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holding a very high Sovereign risk right

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so this is the precise problem that we

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are witnessing right now what is it that

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you should keep in mind as an investor

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three four things I have started doing

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personally myself number one I have

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started to internationally diversify

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over the next one year I will I will

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diversify approximately 50% of my

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portfolio outside India that seems like

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a more reasonable Diversified bit this

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is absolutely critical this is point one

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point two you need to be prepared to

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deal with volatility now what is the

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meaning of volatility be prepared for

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the 20 30% correction that can come very

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fast and furious because our market

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right now is retail driven right and

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Retail people are very Emeral they are

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very volatile so to say right right so

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there is no head or leg or thought

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process behind it one bad piece of news

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can impact us really really badly so so

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this is the problem that we are

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witnessing and I think given this reason

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only that Sab is coming so hard after

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fos and whatnot right so this is point

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two point three please do not display

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your nationalism by buying specific

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private companies that is not the sign

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of nationalism please use your brain

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that a businessman is not equal to India

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and India is is not equal to a

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businessman all the profits that compan

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is making they are not putting it back

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in the economy per se okay so this is a

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simple point that I will tell you

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valuations make

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sense and buy that stock only that is

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not a problem but buy things on

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fundamentals because the problem in

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terms of not buying things on

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fundamentals is that you will buy some

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random company like V Renewables again

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take a look at this when it starts

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falling when it corrects in a day by 20%

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you would not know what to do with it

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right so given all these points go on

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fundamentals study the fundamentals of a

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stock diversify your risk next 6 months

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can be volatile and you need to figure

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out a way to preserve your Investments

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accordingly I hope you enjoyed this

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conversation if you did do press the

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like button and I'll see you soon

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