Nvidia $290 Target by Cathie Wood | Nvidia Stock News
Summary
TLDRこのスクリプトでは、人工知能市場においてNvidiaとMicrosoftが市場から報われた一方で、他の株式はこれからの大きな恩恵を受ける可能性があると指摘しています。特にソフトウェアに重点を置く企業に注目しており、AI分野におけるNvidiaの「ピックとシャベル」の役割を評価していますが、市場はその評価が適切でないかもしれないと示唆しています。また、TeslaがAI分野で最も大きなプロジェクトであると強調し、さまざまな企業のAI関連の収益や市場動向について議論しています。
Takeaways
- 🚀 NvidiaはAI分野でのハードウェア販売に対するソフトウェアの引き付けが、推定で1ドルあたり8ドルから21ドルの範囲で期待されています。
- 🔍 AI関連の他の株式に注目が集まっており、NvidiaやMicrosoftとは別の大きな利益を得る可能性があると見ています。
- 📈 NvidiaはAI時代の「ピックとシャベル」のプレイヤーとして位置づけられていますが、市場はそれに見合った評価をしています。
- 💡 市場はNvidiaの株価を高く評価しており、その評価はその業績や市場での地位に基づいています。
- 📊 ARK InvestのKathy Woodsは、Nvidiaの株式を過去に売却し、その後160%の急上昇を逃しましたが、現在はその評価が適切かどうか懸念しています。
- 🛑 NvidiaのブラックウェルAIアクセラレータの設計欠陥により、出荷が2025年初めに延期される可能性があり、市場への影響が懸念されています。
- 🔑 ソフトウェア企業は高い毛利を持ち、特にZoomは80%の毛利率を持っていますが、Teslaの毛利率は20%台から50〜60%台に上昇する見込みです。
- 🔄 ARK InvestはNvidiaから資金をリデプロイし、Coinbaseや他のソフトウェア企業に投資しています。
- 🌐 カリフォルニア州はNvidiaと提携し、学生や教育者、開発者、データサイエンティストに人工知能のリソースを提供する取り組みを進めています。
- 💡 AI関連のキャピタルエクスペンドを行っているテック企業は、実際のAI収益が実現するまでに時間がかかる可能性があることに注意を払う必要があります。
- 📉 投資家はNvidiaの今後の業績発表に注目しており、その結果はAI分野における投資戦略に影響を与える可能性があります。
Q & A
ナVIDIAとマイクロソフトが市場からどのように評価されていると述べていますか?
-ナVIDIAとマイクロソフトは、人工知能分野で市場から高く評価されており、他の多くの株式とは異なり、大きな恩恵を受けています。
ナVIDIAの歴史的業績は何ですか?
-ナVIDIAは、主にハードウェアを提供してきました。しかし、AIイノベーションの機会において、ソフトウェアの引き付け効果が非常に大きく、ハードウェアの1ドルにつき8ドルから21ドルのソフトウェアが引き付けられると予想されています。
ナVIDIAの株価はどのように評価されていますか?
-ナVIDIAの株価は、その業績を考慮して非常に高く評価されています。しかし、その評価は市場の期待に応じて調整される可能性があり、供給が需要に追いつくことで、一時的な調整が見込まれます。
テスラはAI分野でどのようなポジションを持っていますか?
-テスラは、自動運転タクシープラットフォームを含む、世界最大のAIプロジェクトであり、AI分野で最も大きなチャンスを提供しています。
ナVIDIAのGPUの需要不足はどのように影響していますか?
-ナVIDIAのGPU需要不足は、企業がそのチップを調達できるかどうかにかかわらず、AIブームの恩恵を受け続けています。しかし、遅延が生じることで、競合他社に利益が移動する可能性があります。
ARK InvestのKathy WoodはなぜナVIDIAの株を売却しましたか?
-Kathy Woodは、ナVIDIAの株価が高騰し、市場の期待が過大評価されていると考え、その株を売却しました。また、AI分野で他の株式に投資する機会を見出していたためです。
ARK Investの戦略はどのようなものですか?
-ARK Investは、AI分野の他の株式に焦点を当て、特にソフトウェア指向の企業に投資しています。彼らは、ナVIDIAの株価が高すぎると判断し、他の企業に資本を再配置しています。
ナVIDIAのBlackwell AIアクセラレータの出荷遅延はなぜ重要なのでしょうか?
-Blackwell AIアクセラレータの遅延は、ナVIDIAの競合他社に市場シェアを奪われることになる可能性があり、また、大企業が代替品を探求する原因となります。
ナVIDIAの今後の成長戦略はどのようなものですか?
-ナVIDIAは、ハードウェアの販売からソフトウェアへの引き付け効果を通じて成長を続ける戦略を追求しています。また、新しいアーキテクチャを用いたBlackwellラインへのシフトも計画されています。
AI分野の長期的な成長ポテンシャルはどのように評価されていますか?
-AI分野は、多くの技術や新しい企業にとって価値創造の基盤となるイノベーションプラットフォームとして、長期的な成長ポテンシャルが高いと評価されています。
ナVIDIAの株価に対する市場の懸念は何ですか?
-市場は、ナVIDIAの株価が過剰に評価されている可能性や、AI関連のキャッシュフローが遅れて出現する懸念から、その株価に対する再評価を求めています。
ナVIDIAのEarnings Callはなぜ重要ですか?
-ナVIDIAのEarnings Callは、AI分野での業績や成長戦略を示す重要な機会であり、市場への影響が大きいとされています。
カリフォルニア州がナVIDIAと提携した理由は何ですか?
-カリフォルニア州は、ナVIDIAと提携し、学生や教育者、労働者に対してAI分野のスキルを学ぶためのリソースを拡大することを目指しています。
AI分野における競合がどのように進化する可能性がありますか?
-AI分野における競合は、AMDの成功やクラウドサービスプロバイダー、テスラなどからの独自AIチップの開発により、将来的には強化される可能性があります。
AI技術の多くの応用がなぜ実現困難とされていますか?
-AI技術の多くの応用は、コスト効率が高くない、実際に機能しない、エネルギーを多く消費する、信頼性が低いなど、多くの課題があるため、実現困難とされています。
Outlines
😀 AI市场与Nvidia、Microsoft的崛起
第一段主要讨论了人工智能市场的发展,以及Nvidia和Microsoft如何受到市场的奖励,而其他一些可能在未来成为更大受益者的股票却被忽视了。提到了Nvidia历史上主要是硬件供应商,但AI创新机会下,软件的拉动效应可能在每1美元硬件销售中带来8到21美元的软件销售。此外,提到了Tesla作为世界上最大的AI项目,以及它在自主出租车平台上的潜力,尽管目前它的销售价格相对较低。还提到了Ark Invest CEO Kathy Wood对Nvidia的看法,她认为Nvidia是一个周期性股票,可能会面临显著的价格调整。
😉 Nvidia的周期性与市场表现
第二段深入探讨了Nvidia作为AI时代的关键芯片供应商的角色,以及它在市场的表现。尽管Kathy Wood曾警告Nvidia的增长可能会放缓,并将Nvidia的股票涨幅与Cisco在互联网泡沫期间的表现相比较,但Nvidia的股价今年仍然大幅上涨。同时,提到了Nvidia的库存问题和潜在的订单过剩,以及它与其他公司如AMD和Tesla的竞争。此外,还提到了Nvidia的长期增长前景和它在AI领域的战略地位。
😎 AI技术的未来与挑战
第三段讨论了AI技术的未来,包括Nvidia的AI芯片延迟发货可能给竞争对手如Samsung带来的机遇,以及Nvidia与加州政府合作推动AI教育的举措。同时,提到了投资者对AI技术公司的高期望和对它们长期增长潜力的看法。还涉及了大型科技公司的AI相关支出,以及它们在AI领域的战略决策。此外,还提到了Nvidia即将发布的财报,以及它对投资者信心的影响。
🤔 AI技术的泡沫与现实
第四段对AI技术的现实应用和市场泡沫进行了反思。提到了Elliott Management对AI技术的怀疑态度,他们认为AI技术被过度炒作,许多应用尚未成熟,且可能永远无法实现成本效益或实际工作。此外,还讨论了AI技术在实际应用中的局限性,如能耗问题和信任问题。这一段强调了对AI技术未来发展的谨慎态度和对市场泡沫的担忧。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡人工知能(AI)
💡Nvidia
💡Microsoft
💡ソフトウェア
💡見積もり
💡評価
💡GPU(グラフィックプロセッシングユニット)
💡テスラ(Tesla)
💡市場動揺
💡投資戦略
💡市場評価
Highlights
市场对人工智能的奖励,特别是对Nvidia和Microsoft的奖励,而其他可能从现在起成为更大受益者的股票却被忽视。
Nvidia历史上主要是一家硬件公司,但AI创新机会中软件的拉动效应可能在每售出1美元硬件的8到21美元之间。
投资者普遍忽视了其他面向软件的、在AI领域具有巨大机会的股票。
Kathy Woods的Arc投资公司在Nvidia股价5美元时开始投资,并在股价上涨后仍持有,但比例较低,因为对估值非常敏感。
AMD股价因Nvidia的设计缺陷而上涨,该缺陷可能将发货推迟到2025年初。
Nvidia的估值已经非常高,根据今年的收入,大约在25到27倍销售范围。
Tesla是最大的AI机会,是世界最大的人工智能项目,特别是在自动驾驶出租车平台方面。
图形处理单元(GPU)的短缺并未对Nvidia造成太大影响,因为像Tesla这样的公司能够获得所需的芯片。
Arc投资公司将其资本从Nvidia重新配置到Coinbase和其他软件公司,包括其旗舰产品Arc Innovation ETF。
一些软件公司如Twilio和Zoom的市盈率远低于Nvidia,具有很高的毛利率。
Kathy Woods表示,Nvidia是一个周期性股票,可能会面临显著的价格调整。
尽管对Nvidia的预测持悲观态度,但Nvidia的股价今年已经上涨了172%。
Nvidia的高估值让一些投资者感到担忧,专家们警告可能会有潜在的重新评估。
尽管面临增长放缓、支出减少和竞争加剧的挑战,但Kathy Woods仍然对AI投资持乐观态度。
Kathy Woods将Nvidia比作AI繁荣时期的Cisco,并警告其增长可能会放缓。
Nvidia的Blackwell AI加速器因设计缺陷而推迟发货,可能促使大型科技公司寻求Nvidia的竞争对手产品。
加州与Nvidia合作,为学生、教师、开发者和数据科学家提供人工智能培训资源。
亿万富翁Paul Singer认为Nvidia股票存在泡沫,并对AI技术的长期价值持怀疑态度。
Transcripts
uh around artificial intelligence and
and how the market has rewarded Nvidia
and Microsoft and left a lot of other
stocks that are probably going to be
bigger beneficiaries from this point on
uh than Nvidia and
Microsoft uh those are the stocks we're
focused on uh Nvidia has been primarily
Hardware
historically uh by our estimates for
every dollar of Hardware sold uh around
this Innovation opportunity AI uh we
think the software pull through will be
on the order it depends on the estimate
but somewhere between eight and
$21 for every
$1 uh so we think a the market and
investors broadly are overlooking some
massive
uh AI opportunities in other stocks uh
more software oriented right so our we
took our initial position when we
started the firm and it when it was $5
on on a split adjusted basis uh and we
wrote it all the way up and we still own
it in our more specialized portfolios uh
but at a much lower rate why because
we're very sensitive to valuation uh
contrary to what many people might think
Kathy Woods Arc invest loads up on
Reddit as platform reports Q2 Revenue
increase Arc said it should be noted
that on Monday amid a global market
route AMD shares Rose after a morning
dip driven by invidious design flaw in
its Blackwell accelerators which could
delay shipments until early 2025 Nvidia
later addressed concerns easing Market
fears despite weak performance from
other chipmakers like Intel and
according to our estimates and our
estimates for NVIDIA are quite a
aggressive in terms of Revenue growth
over the next 5 years we think they're
in a beautiful position with the picks
and shovels uh but everyone knows it
everyone knows it and it is valued
accordingly so uh on on this year's
Revenue it is somewhere in let's say the
25 to 27 times sales range uh depending
on one's estimate um and we have other
names in the port folio on the software
side and remember for every dollar of
Hardware you know eight to $21 of
software are going to be pulled through
according to our estimates uh Tesla is
the biggest AI opportunity out there uh
it is the biggest artificial
intelligence project in the world when
it comes to autonomous taxi platforms
and it is selling for uh roughly I I
think it's seven times maybe it's six
times Revenue revenues now added the
shortage around Graphics processing
units gpus nvidia's second largest
revenue generator has not been as accute
recently with the likes of Tesla having
no problem in acquiring the chips the
company has continued to benefit from
the artificial intelligence boom would
said the group redeployed its capital
from Nvidia into coinbase and other
software companies across its range of
ETFs including the flagship Arc
Innovation ETF uh so that's that's a a
very good example and an even
we think that's the best example but
other software plays uh would include
twio which is selling at two to three
times Zoom which is selling at roughly
three times sales these are all sales uh
and these companies have uh either very
high uh gross margins like Zoom 80% Arc
invest CEO kathywood said it would take
a significant price correction for her
to reinvest in Nvidia having sold out
last January ahead of a 160% surge in
the chipmaker shares price speaking at
ETF streams ETF ecosystem unwrapped 2024
event last week would said Nvidia was a
cyclical stock that could face a
significant price reduction as inventory
continues to build and I use a stock
market strategy in which I pick 10
stocks every month using artificial
intelligence and get massive returns
using this strategy I have turned $4,000
into $14 $3,000 in the last one year the
10 stocks I bought last month has given
me
177% return and I have again bought
these 10 stocks if you want to learn the
strategy which I have revealed in my
3-hour course and get access to see
which 10 stocks I'm buying every month
and which trades I'm taking plus all
these benefits click the link in
description and join my patreon join
fast because this is a limited time
offer to the Wall Street Journal Woods
investment fund sold at least $4.5
Million worth of Nvidia stock this year
everyone now understands that Nvidia is
the key chip player it's created the AI
age in a sense but we do think that it
has become a check the box stock would
told the Wall Street journals Dion Ruan
in a podcast that aired in February I've
watched Nvidia all my career actually
since it's gone public it's a very
cyclical stock she said there's this
hyperactivity everyone excited trying to
get in at the same time so there's
double ordering triple ordering
quadruple ordering and then there is an
inventory correction we think that will
happen again but nvidia's stock price
has more than outperformed Woods bearish
prediction the chip giant stock has gone
up by
172% this year and it briefly became the
world's most valuable company last month
or they have low gross margins now like
Tesla does in the 20s these are gross uh
margins but they will be rising because
of the saslik model that is evolving for
Tesla they will rise from the 20s into
what we believe is the 50s and 60s
hindsight is 2020 for Ark invests Kathy
Wood whose fund missed out on the Nvidia
stock rally when it sold its position
too early before selling Nvidia in arkk
had we known that the market was going
to reward it and the other mag six
stocks to the exclusion of stocks that
will be the prime beneficiaries of AI
like Tesla the largest AI Project Earth
and multiomic names like rxrx we would
have held it would said in an X post on
Sunday early on WE identified Nvidia as
the premier picks and shovels play in
the AI space would wrote despite the
recent Market volatility ARX Arc Next
Generation internet ETF arkw continues
to have exposure to Nvidia with a 1.39%
weight as of June 28th would acknowledge
the impact of open AI chat GPT moment on
Nvidia which coincided with the Federal
Reserve substantial interest rate hike
this led to a surge in investor interest
in Nvidia and other cashr stocks
prompting Arc to seek Diversified
exposure to the AI Revolution she also
noted that the weak macro environment
and long-term corporate strategic
decision-making have posed challenges
for software companies despite this what
remains bullish on AI Investments
viewing AI as a foundational Innovation
platform that will drive value creation
for many Technologies and new companies
given high and perhaps unfulfilled
short-term expectations customers are
likely to reassess their AI strategies
causing nvidia's business some
short-term indigestion wrote wood
despite these adjustments would remains
confident in ARX AI Investments
emphasizing the firm's continued
exposure to emerging Tech players she
initially invested in Nvidia in 2014
when the stock was approximately $4 per
share adjusted for splits meanwhile
nvidia's Skyhigh valuation has given
some investors pause with experts
warning of a potential re-evaluation
despite this nvidia's performance has
been exceptional with the stock being
the fifth largest contributor to arc's
arkk Performance maybe some of these
software companies did not do as well as
Nvidia however if Nvidia is to continue
working we must see this pool through
into the tech stack and the central part
of organizations so there are going to
be bumps in the road Tech Guru cathywood
says Nvidia is the Cisco of the AI boom
and warns its growth May falter
cathywood has sounded the alarm on
Nvidia warning its spectacular growth is
likely to slow and comparing its stock
surge to Cisco during the Doom bubble
the tech evangelist and Arc invest CEO
made the Striking comments in a letter
to her shareholders on Thursday she drew
a parallel between Cisco writing high on
demand for Network Hardware during the
internet boom in the early 1990s and
Nvidia selling record amounts of
Graphics chips to companies developing
artificial intelligence today it's a
similar technology moment in time would
said she recalled that Cisco stock
soared by 31 times in the 3.5 years to
March 1994 then tanked 51% over the next
four months as recession fears and the
release of rival offerings caused
customers to cut back on orders Woods
Point seemed to be that just as Cisco's
routers and switches enabled the
internet Revolution Nvidia has emerged
as the AI era's defining company and
when a company plays such a key role in
a new tech Paradigm it can see dramatic
swings in its stock price indeed Nvidia
has grown at a blistering Pace in recent
quarters as companies like Tesla and
Oracle have scrambled to buy its chips
but the mad rush could mean its
customers end up with double or triple
the amount they need would said she also
noted that Nvidia is gu toward a growth
slowdown this quarter and the wait time
to secure its chips has shrunk from up
to 11 months to as little as 3 months
signaling Supply is catching up with
demand without an explosion in software
Revenue to justify the overbuilding of
GPU capacity we would not be surprised
to see a pause in spending would said
nvidia's customers might also spend less
on chips as they begin working through
and reducing their inventories she
Contin I use a stock market strategy in
which I pick 10 stocks every month using
artificial intelligence and get massive
turns using this strategy I have turned
$4,000 into
$143,000 in the last one year the 10
stocks I bought last month has given me
177% return and I have again bought
these 10 stocks if you want to learn the
strategy which I have revealed in my
3-hour course and get access to see
which 10 stocks I'm buying every month
and which trades I'm taking plus all
these benefits click the link in
description and join my patreon join
fast because this is a limited time
offer longer term unlike the history
with with Cisco competition could
intensify not only because AMD is
finding success but also because
nvidia's customers cloud service
providers and companies like Tesla are
designing their own AI chips she added
would clearly seize the shine coming off
Nvidia in the face of slowing growth
Slimmer spending and stiffer competition
but she made sure to caveat that the
major AI advances in recent years have
shown Anything is Possible the fund
manager has grown increasingly wary of
Nvidia in recent months she disclosed in
Fe AR she was cutting arc's exposure to
the stock as expectations could be
getting ahead of themselves indeed
Nvidia stock has soared almost 90% this
year boosting the company's market
capitalization to more than $2 trillion
it's now more valuable than Amazon or
alphabet and only 133% behind Apple
after being 147th as valuable as the
iPhone maker a decade ago Nvidia
historically has been a very cyclical
stock I remember in 2018 when it
benefited from the crypto movement
ending up with a huge inventory
correction and crypto was about 3% of
its business would said however there
was so much inventory building in the
crypto space there was a glut I do not
think it will be as serious this time
but Nvidia did drop by 2/3 in one
quarter will Samsung benefit from
nvidia's new AI chip delays Samsung
Electronics Colorado the world's top
memory chip maker is expected to benefit
from Nvidia Corp dots delays in shipping
AI chips AS Global big Tech firms
potentially seek alternatives to the AI
semiconductor Giant
last week Nvidia notified Microsoft
Google and other major customers that
shipments of its Blackwell AI
accelerator will be delayed at least 3
months over design flaws Us Media
reported the delays are expected to Spur
big tech companies to seek products by
nvidia's Rivals such as Advanced Micro
Devices Inc AMD industry sources in Soul
said on Sunday Microsoft and Google have
already been developing Next Generation
products with
AMD Nvidia earnings the next key
Catalyst for big Tech Q2 earnings on
August 28th will be closely watched as
they may hold the fate of the big Tech
vs rotation trade strategists noted
while AI related capex from the tech
giants has generally been strong
investors are starting to question the
high spending given actual AI revenues
are likely to take longer to materialize
they added the Investment Bank expresses
a preference for the long-term secular
growth potential and quality aspects
that the tech sector offers as opposed
to the value cyclical nature of other
struggling sectors like autos
investors can expect a huge reveal on
nvidia's upcoming earnings call that
could silence AI critics Goldman Sachs
says that's according to a Monday note
from Goldman Sachs which details
takeaways from a recent meeting with
nvidia's Chief Financial Officer Colette
Chris there are growing worries that for
all the hundreds of billions of dollars
being spent on nvidia's AI chips there's
little to show from it in the form of
profits and revenue for nvidia's
customers end user companies and their
investors will soon look for Revenue to
justify the $500 billion already spent
Bank of America said in a note earlier
this week no one denies the computing
power but after one last frenzy rally
around the latest chips investors may
come to doubt the near-term
economics mizo Securities adjust price
Target on Nvidia to $132 from $127
Rakesh upped his price Target on Nvidia
to $132 from
$127.50 however Nvidia is now starting
to Pivot to the blackware line using nvl
3672 which uses a new architecture of
chip on wafer on substrate known as ka's
this should continue to ramp into 2025
Rakesh ad California partners with
Nvidia to bring artificial intelligence
resources to colleges California is
partnering with Tech Giant Nvidia to
help train the state students College
faculty developers and data scientists
in artificial intelligence officials
announced Friday the initiative is part
of an effort to expand resources so
students Educators and workers
particularly in community colleges can
learn skills in generative Ai and
Advance their careers California gov
Gavin Newsome's office said the
partnership aims to add new curriculum
and certifications hardware and software
and AI labs and
workshops California's World leading
companies are pioneering AI
breakthroughs and it's essential that we
create more opportunities for
Californians to get the skills to
utilize this technology and Advance
their careers Nome said in a
statement billionaire Paul singer is
staying away from Nvidia thinks stock is
in Bubble Land billionaire Paul singer
iot management has reportedly said in a
latest letter to investors that Mega cap
AI tech stocks are in bubble land and
viia is
overhyped the fund said in its letter
that it's skeptical about the notion
that technology companies will keep
buying AI chips in high volumes in the
future adding that AI is overhyped with
many applications not ready for prime
time it also claimed that many AI use
cases are never going to be
cost-efficient are never going to
actually work right will take up too
much energy or will prove to be
untrustworthy
the fund reportedly said in its letter
that AI is in effect software that has
failed to deliver value commensurate
with the hype the $66 billion Elliott
management founded by billionaire Paul
singer who is one of the most feared
activist investors in the US said there
are few real users of AI other than
summarizing notes of meetings generating
reports and helping with computer coding
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