Menkeu Bahas soal Kondisi Ekonomi Terkini dan Keuangan Negara Jelang Pergantian Pemerintahan

CNN Indonesia

20 Jun 202408:06

Summary

TLDRThe script discusses global economic developments, particularly the impact of decisions in the US and Europe on the local economy, such as potential interest rate cuts and capital outflows. It highlights domestic economic indicators like consumer spending and PMI, which remain strong, underpinning economic growth projections for the second quarter. The script also addresses fiscal policies, including careful management of the 2024 state budget amidst fluctuating oil prices and exchange rates, aiming to maintain a prudent and sustainable fiscal stance with a focus on accommodating new government programs for 2025.

Takeaways

🌐 The global economic situation, including political developments and economic conditions in the United States and Europe, has potential spillover effects on the local economy and is being closely monitored.
📉 The Federal Reserve's decisions on the federal funds rate and its potential impacts on interest rates are being watched to minimize negative effects.
💷 Movements in currency exchange rates and government bond yields are highly influenced by fundamental factors, indicating a strong position in the economy.
📈 Economic indicators such as retail sales, consumer confidence, and PMI are stable, providing a good foundation for projecting economic growth in the second quarter.
🏦 The banking sector is experiencing an increase in credit expansion for investment, working capital, and consumption, reflecting a positive intermediary function.
📊 The gross credit amount has reached 12.3%, and the increase in third-party funds is also up by 8.1%, indicating a robust financial system.
💼 The stability of the financial system is being monitored from both the banking and non-banking institutions, as well as movements in currency and bond yields.
🇺🇸 The high interest rates and potential capital outflows due to U.S. policies are being assessed for their impact on the domestic economy.
💼 The fiscal policy for 2024 is being managed cautiously, with considerations of oil prices, exchange rates, and government bond yields affecting the budget stance.
📊 The deficit for the current year is estimated to be within a maximum of 2.8%, and efforts are being made to manage financing prudently.
🔄 Coordination with Bank Indonesia is ongoing to maintain currency stability and manage market dynamics in the context of high global dynamics and political transitions.
📝 Discussions with the parliament for the 2025 state budget are ongoing, with macroeconomic assumptions agreed upon, including economic growth, inflation, exchange rates, and oil prices.
📉 The deficit for the 2025 state budget is being discussed to be within a range that allows for prudent and sustainable fiscal management, accommodating new government programs.

Q & A

What global factors are mentioned as having a potential spillover effect on the domestic economy?
-Global factors such as politics, economic developments in the United States, Europe, and China are mentioned as having potential spillover effects on the domestic economy.
What specific economic indicators are highlighted as showing strong fundamentals?
-Indicators such as the retail sales index, Mandiri spending index, consumer confidence, cement consumption, electricity consumption, and PMI are highlighted as showing strong fundamentals.
What is the projected economic growth for the second quarter based on the current indicators?
-The projected economic growth for the second quarter is expected to remain strong, similar to the growth in the first quarter.
How has the banking sector performed in terms of credit expansion?
-The banking sector has experienced an increase in credit expansion, with gross credit growth reaching 12.3% and third-party funds increasing by 8.1%.
What impact does the US monetary policy have on the domestic economy?
-The US monetary policy, particularly the decision to maintain high interest rates and only lower them once, has led to capital outflows and affects the domestic economy.
How is the government managing the state budget (APBN) for 2024?
-The government is managing the state budget for 2024 with caution, considering fluctuations in exchange rates, oil prices, and government bond yields. They aim to maintain a deficit below 2.8% and use surplus funds from the previous year to reduce market financing needs.
What are the projected macroeconomic assumptions for 2024 and 2025?
-The projected macroeconomic assumptions for 2024 include economic growth of 5.1-5.5%, inflation of 1.5-3.5%, exchange rates between 15,300-15,900, government bond interest rates of 6.9-7.2%, oil prices of 80-85 USD per barrel, and lifting oil and gas production figures.
How is the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies being managed?
-Coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is managed through collaboration between the government and Bank Indonesia to maintain exchange rate stability and navigate market dynamics effectively.
What steps are being taken to ensure the state budget remains sustainable and prudent?
-Steps include maintaining the deficit below 3%, keeping the debt-to-GDP ratio at an affordable level, and ensuring transparent and accountable management of the state budget.
What are the key considerations for the 2025 state budget in relation to the new government administration?
-Key considerations include coordinating with the new administration to align budget needs with their programs, ensuring the budget remains sustainable, and accommodating new programs while maintaining fiscal prudence.

Outlines

00:00

🌐 Global Economic Impacts and Domestic Financial Stability

The first paragraph discusses the global economic situation and its potential spillover effects on the domestic economy. It highlights the influence of decisions made regarding the federal funds rate and developments in Europe, which are closely monitored to minimize negative impacts. The paragraph also touches on the strong fundamental factors affecting the country's currency exchange rates and bond yields, such as consumer confidence and spending, PMI, and other economic indicators. The banking sector's role in credit expansion for investment, working capital, and consumption is noted, along with the increase in third-party funds. The importance of monitoring financial system stability, including banking and non-banking institutions, is emphasized, especially in the context of high US interest rates and potential capital outflows. The paragraph concludes with a mention of the fiscal policy discussions for the 2024 state budget and the ongoing coordination with the central bank to maintain currency stability.

05:01

📊 Fiscal Policy and Budget Planning for 2025

The second paragraph focuses on the fiscal policy and budget planning for the upcoming years, particularly for 2025. It outlines the assumptions made for macroeconomic factors such as economic growth, inflation, and exchange rates, which are crucial for determining the state budget's revenue projections and national expenditure plans. The discussion includes the estimated deficit range for the 2025 state budget, which is being debated to ensure it remains prudent and sustainable. The coordination with the new administration's team to understand their budgetary needs and mechanisms for implementing new programs is highlighted. The paragraph also emphasizes the importance of maintaining transparency, accountability, and careful management of the state budget to support the new government's initiatives while keeping the deficit under control.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Global

The term 'Global' refers to matters or issues that affect the entire world or have worldwide implications. In the video's context, it is used to discuss the impact of global economic developments, particularly from the United States and Europe, on the local economy, which is a central theme of the video. For example, the script mentions monitoring global economic developments to minimize negative spillover effects on the local economy.

💡Fed Fund Rate

The 'Fed Fund Rate' is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances to each other overnight. It is a key monetary policy tool used by the Federal Reserve in the United States. The video discusses decisions regarding the Fed Fund Rate, such as how many times the interest rate might be reduced, which is a significant factor in global economic conditions and directly impacts the local economy.

💡Currency Exchange Rate

The 'Currency Exchange Rate' is the value of a country's currency in relation to another currency. It is a vital economic indicator that affects international trade and investment. The script highlights the movement of exchange rates and how they are influenced by fundamental factors, showing their importance in the economic narrative of the video.

💡Yield

In the context of the video, 'Yield' refers to the return on financial investments, such as government bonds. The script discusses how yields are influenced by fundamental factors and are a key aspect of the economic analysis presented, as they can affect the cost of borrowing and the attractiveness of investments.

💡Consumer Confidence Index

The 'Consumer Confidence Index' is a measure of how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are about the economy. In the video, it is used as an indicator of economic health, reflecting consumer sentiment and spending habits, which are crucial for driving economic growth.

💡PMI

The 'PMI' stands for Purchasing Managers' Index, which is an economic indicator that reflects the economic condition of the manufacturing sector. The script mentions PMI as part of the economic fundamentals that are being monitored, indicating its importance in assessing the health of the economy.

💡Credit Expansion

'Credit Expansion' refers to an increase in the amount of credit available in the economy, which can stimulate economic activity. The video discusses the growth in credit, particularly for investment, working capital, and consumption, highlighting the role of banks in intermediating funds and supporting economic growth.

💡Stability of the Financial System

The 'Stability of the Financial System' is a key concern for economic policymakers, as it affects the overall health and resilience of the economy. The script mentions monitoring the stability of both banking and non-banking institutions, as well as the movements of currency exchange rates and bond yields, to ensure financial stability.

💡Capital Outflow

'Capital Outflow' occurs when investors move their money from one country to another, often in response to changes in economic policies or conditions. The video discusses capital outflow as a result of high-interest policies in the United States, illustrating its impact on the domestic economy.

💡Fiscal Policy

Fiscal policy involves government spending and taxation strategies to influence economic activity. The video discusses fiscal policy in the context of the APBN (State Budget) for 2024, emphasizing careful management and the impact of oil prices and exchange rates on the budget.

💡Deficit

A 'Deficit' occurs when a government's expenditures exceed its revenues. The video mentions the estimated deficit for the current year and discusses measures to manage it, such as using surplus budget or last year's savings, to maintain fiscal sustainability.

💡Macroeconomic Assumptions

Macroeconomic assumptions are predictions or estimates about economic variables such as GDP growth, inflation, and exchange rates. The video outlines these assumptions for the upcoming years, including projections for economic growth, inflation, and interest rates, which are crucial for planning and executing fiscal policies.

Highlights

Global economic developments, particularly in the United States and Europe, have potential spillover effects on our economy.

Monitoring decisions on the Federal Funds rate and its impact on interest rates.

Developments in Europe and movements in currency exchange rates and government bond yields are influenced by strong fundamental factors.

Economic indicators such as retail sales index, consumer confidence, and PMI are stable, reflecting positive consumer spending and recovery, especially in May and June.

Credit expansion in banking has increased, indicating a positive function of intermediation and a rise in gross credit to 12.3%.

Third-party funds have also increased by 8.1%, reflecting financial stability.

Monitoring financial system stability, including banking and non-banking institutions, as well as government bond yields and stock movements.

High interest rates and capital outflows in the United States due to policy decisions impact the domestic economy.

Fiscal policy for 2024 is being managed cautiously, with several factors such as oil prices and exchange rates monitored for their impact on financing posture.

Deficit for the current year is estimated to remain within a maximum of 2.8%, ensuring prudent fiscal management.

Coordination with Bank Indonesia to maintain currency stability and manage market dynamics.

Macroeconomic assumptions for 2024 and 2025 include economic growth projections and inflation rates within specific ranges.

Fiscal and market dynamics are being coordinated to accommodate the new government's programs in 2025.

The 2025 APBN (State Budget) discussions are underway with a focus on maintaining a prudent and sustainable fiscal policy.

Deficit for 2025 is being discussed to be within a lower range of 2.21% to 2.8% to ensure fiscal responsibility.

Coordination with the new government's team to understand budgetary needs and mechanisms for implementing new programs.

The importance of maintaining a transparent, accountable, and sustainable APBN for the incoming government.

Continued coordination with the incoming government to ensure a comprehensive understanding of the APBN managed prudently.