Tesla Shareholders...Get Ready [It's Coming]

Summary

The video discusses Tesla's impressive 80% stock surge since April, attributing the rally to a mix of fundamental and technical analyses. The presenter, who recently invested in Tesla, remains bullish, citing the company's potential to reach a trillion-dollar market cap. The video explores Tesla's various business verticals, including AI-driven initiatives, Optimus humanoid robots, Full Self-Driving (FSD), and battery storage, suggesting these innovations could significantly impact Tesla's valuation. The presenter also addresses the stock's current PE ratio and provides insights on potential future events that could influence the stock's performance.

Takeaways

• 🚀 Tesla's stock has surged 80% since April, and the speaker had predicted this rally in prior videos and tweets.
• 🎯 The speaker's updated price target for Tesla is based on both fundamental and technical analysis.
• 🛍️ The speaker is bullish on Tesla and has recently bought shares, citing additional evidence to support this stance.
• 📈 Tesla's market cap could reach $1 trillion at a share price of $318, which the speaker believes is achievable in the midterm.
• 🤖 The AI narrative is driving the valuations of tech companies, including Tesla, which are all working towards future AI advancements.
• 🧩 Fundamentals in emerging markets like AI are difficult to price, as they are speculative and can change rapidly, as illustrated by Gary Black's tweets.
• 🤖 Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot is seen as a potentially低估 asset with high future demand, possibly in the billions of units.
• 🚗 Full Self-Driving (FSD) in Tesla cars is a significant revenue generator, with potential subscription services and licensing to other automakers.
• 🚕 The Robo taxi service is another speculative business vertical with potentially massive valuations, although it's hard to estimate its true worth.
• 🔋 Battery storage is an additional revenue stream for Tesla, with potential for significant growth as seen in the estimates provided.
• 🚗 Tesla's vehicle deliveries, although Q1 2024 was disappointing, Q2 2024 came in higher than expected, showing a strong performance.
• 📊 Tesla's current PE ratio of 64 is considered expensive for a car company but is justified given its diverse business ventures beyond just cars.

Q & A

What is the recent performance of Tesla's stock price?

Tesla's stock price has increased by a significant 80% since April, indicating a strong upward trend during the summer rally.

What is the speaker's previous engagement with Tesla's stock?

The speaker has previously tweeted and made videos about Tesla's stock in April and June, showing a continued interest and bullish stance on the company.

What is the speaker's updated price target for Tesla based on the video?

The speaker does not explicitly state a specific price target in the transcript, but implies a positive outlook based on fundamental and technical analysis.

Why does the speaker believe Tesla will reach a trillion-dollar market cap?

The speaker believes Tesla will reach a trillion-dollar market cap due to its potential in areas such as AI narrative, battery storage, and the upcoming humanoid robot, Optimus.

What is the significance of the $318 stock price for Tesla?

At $318, Tesla would achieve a trillion-dollar market cap, which is a significant milestone for the company.

What is the current market cap and PE ratio of Tesla according to the speaker?

As per the speaker, Tesla currently has a market cap of 802 billion and a PE (Price to Earnings) ratio of 64.

Why does the speaker consider fundamentals to be a moving target in the context of Tesla?

The speaker considers fundamentals to be a moving target because of the dynamic nature of the company's various business verticals, such as AI, energy storage, and robotics, which are difficult to accurately price in nascent markets.

What is the speaker's view on the valuation of companies in the AI narrative?

The speaker believes that companies driven by the AI narrative, including Tesla, have seemingly 'insane' valuations due to the speculative nature of the AI market and its potential future impact.

What is the potential market for Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot according to the speaker?

The speaker suggests that the demand for Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot could be as high as 10 to 20 billion units, indicating a massive potential market.

What is the significance of Tesla's upcoming Robo taxi event on August 8th?

The Robo taxi event is significant as it could potentially reveal new insights into Tesla's autonomous vehicle technology and its valuation, which is currently difficult to estimate.

What is the speaker's opinion on shorting Tesla's stock after the recent rally?

The speaker advises against shorting Tesla's stock after the recent rally, suggesting that those who shorted may have suffered losses and are now looking for other opportunities.

What is the potential impact of Tesla's FSD (Full Self-Driving) on its revenue?

The speaker believes that FSD could become a significant revenue generator for Tesla, as it could be subscribed to by all Tesla car owners once it is fully functional, in addition to potential licensing to other automakers.

How does the speaker view Tesla's PE ratio of 64 in the context of its business verticals?

The speaker considers Tesla's PE ratio of 64 to be relatively cheap when considering the company's diverse business verticals beyond just car manufacturing, such as energy storage and robotics.

What is the speaker's strategy for trading Tesla's stock after the upcoming earnings report and Robo taxi event?

The speaker suggests buying the pullbacks if the earnings report and Robo taxi event are positive, but does not provide specific trading advice, acknowledging the uncertainty of these events.

Outlines

00:00

🚀 Tesla's Market Cap and Future Potential

The video discusses Tesla's impressive 80% growth since April and the anticipation surrounding its market cap reaching $1 trillion. The speaker shares their bullish stance on Tesla, supported by fundamental and technical analysis. They highlight Tesla's current market cap, PE ratio, and its comparison to other major tech companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon, and Meta, all of which have at least a $1 trillion valuation. The AI narrative is identified as a driving force behind the valuations of these companies, with Tesla's potential in AI, self-driving technology, and the upcoming Robo taxi service being key factors. The unpredictability of the valuation in emerging markets, exemplified by Gary Black's fluctuating stance on autonomous vehicles, is also discussed, emphasizing the speculative nature of these technologies.

05:02

🤖 The Impact and Future of Tesla's Optimus Robot

This paragraph delves into the potential impact of Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot, comparing it to Amazon's extensive use of warehouse robots. The speaker points out the efficiency and cost savings of using robots instead of human labor, with Amazon's 750,000 robots eliminating the need for 24 human roles each. Elon Musk's prediction of a high demand for Optimus robots, possibly up to 10 to 20 billion units, is mentioned, along with Morgan Stanley's view that Tesla's humanoid robot opportunity could surpass that of autonomous vehicles. The potential applications of these robots across various industries are explored, and the importance of Tesla's production optimization capabilities in reducing the cost of these robots is highlighted.

10:04

🔋 Tesla's Diverse Business Verticals and Market Cap Predictions

The final paragraph examines Tesla's various business verticals beyond electric vehicles, including the potential of its FSD technology, battery storage solutions, and the upcoming Model 2. The speaker provides an overview of Tesla's delivery numbers, emphasizing the company's strong performance despite initial disappointments. They also discuss the challenges of pricing Tesla's future potential, especially with the uncertainty surrounding its Robo taxi service. The potential for Tesla's market cap to exceed $1 trillion is reiterated, considering the company's diverse offerings and growth prospects. The speaker concludes with a personal opinion on Tesla's long-term value and a cautionary note about the potential impact of upcoming earnings reports and events on the stock's performance.

Keywords

💡Tesla

Tesla is an American electric vehicle and clean energy company known for its innovative approach to electric cars, solar energy, and battery storage. In the video, it is the central subject of discussion with a focus on its stock performance and future potential. The speaker mentions Tesla's impressive 80% stock increase since April and their bullish stance on the company.

💡Market Cap

Market Cap, short for market capitalization, is the total value of a company's outstanding shares of stock. It is used to assess a company's size and is calculated by multiplying the stock's price by the number of outstanding shares. The video discusses Tesla's potential to reach a trillion-dollar market cap, which would place it among the most valuable companies.

💡Fundamentals

In finance, 'fundamentals' refer to the basic quantitative characteristics of a company that are used to determine its intrinsic value, such as revenue, expenses, and earnings. The speaker in the video discusses the difficulty in applying traditional fundamental analysis to companies like Tesla, which are driven by future-oriented narratives and technologies.

💡AI Narrative

The AI narrative refers to the storyline or expectation that a company is heavily involved in artificial intelligence, which can drive its stock price due to the perceived potential for future growth. The video mentions that companies with a strong AI narrative, including Tesla, are being valued highly in the market due to their potential in areas like autonomous driving and AI-powered services.

💡Momentum

Momentum, in investing, refers to the rate at which the price of a security is changing over time. It is often used to describe a stock's upward or downward trend. The script talks about the momentum behind Tesla's stock price, suggesting that the company's recent performance and future prospects are driving investor interest.

💡PE Ratio

The PE Ratio, or Price-to-Earnings Ratio, is a valuation ratio calculated by dividing a company's market capitalization by its earnings. It is used to determine if a stock is overvalued or undervalued. The video discusses Tesla's PE ratio of 64, suggesting that while it may seem high for a car company, it is relatively low for Tesla given its diverse business ventures beyond just car manufacturing.

💡Optimus

Optimus is Tesla's humanoid robot project aimed at performing tasks that are currently done by humans. The video script highlights the potential of Tesla's Optimus robot, suggesting that it could revolutionize various industries and contribute significantly to Tesla's valuation and market cap.

💡FSD

FSD stands for Full Self-Driving, which is a feature in Tesla vehicles that aims to enable autonomous driving capabilities. The video discusses the potential revenue generation from FSD subscriptions and licensing to other automakers, emphasizing its importance in Tesla's future growth.

💡Robo Taxi

Robo Taxi refers to autonomous taxis that operate without a human driver. The script mentions the potential valuation of Tesla's Robo Taxi business, which is difficult to estimate due to the uncertainty surrounding the adoption and profitability of autonomous vehicle technology.

💡Battery Storage

Battery storage is the technology used to store electrical energy for later use, typically in the context of renewable energy systems. The video talks about Tesla's involvement in battery storage as a significant revenue stream and growth area, highlighting its importance in the company's broader clean energy ambitions.

💡Deliveries

In the context of the automotive industry, 'deliveries' refers to the number of vehicles shipped to customers within a given period. The video discusses Tesla's Q2 deliveries, noting that they were higher than expected and making it the third-best quarter for the company, which is a positive indicator of its market performance.

Highlights

Tesla's stock has risen by 80% since April, and the speaker had predicted this rally in prior videos and tweets.

The speaker will provide an updated price target for Tesla based on both fundamental and technical analysis.

The speaker has recently bought Tesla stock and remains bullish on it, presenting additional evidence for this stance.

Tesla's current market cap is $802 billion with a PE ratio of 64, aiming for a trillion-dollar valuation at $318 per share.

All MAG 7 companies, except Tesla, have a market cap of at least $1 trillion, driven by a future AI narrative.

The difficulty of pricing fundamentals in emerging markets like AI is highlighted, with examples of fluctuating valuations.

Tesla's upcoming events and innovations, such as the Optimus robot and FSD, are expected to drive further growth.

Amazon's use of 750,000 robots in warehouses illustrates a trend that Tesla's Optimus may follow.

Elon Musk's prediction of a high demand for Optimus robots, potentially in the billions of units.

Morgan Stanley's view that Tesla's humanoid robot opportunity may surpass that of autonomous cars.

FSD as a revenue generator once it enables fully autonomous driving for Tesla owners.

The potential of Tesla's Robo taxi service to significantly increase the company's valuation, despite uncertainties.

Battery storage as a growing revenue stream for Tesla, with potential Q2 revenues hitting $3.3 billion.

Tesla's Q2 deliveries were better than expected, ranking as the third-best quarter in the company's history.

The upcoming Model 2, expected to be priced around $20,000-$25,000, may further boost Tesla's delivery numbers.

Tesla's PE ratio of 64 is considered historically cheap for the company, given its diversification beyond car manufacturing.

Technical analysis indicates a desire to see Tesla's stock price surpass a 2-year trend line.

The speaker's personal opinion against shorting Tesla and advice on buying pullbacks if certain conditions are met.

An invitation for viewers to share their thoughts and experiences with Tesla stock in the comments section.

Transcripts

Tesla's up a crazy 80% since April as it

is rocketing into its summer rally who

could have known wait what's that I

tweeted about that in June I made a

video about it in April two videos about

it in April all right scratch that so

everybody in their mom is asking me what

is my updated price target for Tesla and

in this video I'm going to be giving you

my best answer based on the analysis

that I see from a fundamental standpoint

and the analysis that I see from a

technical standpoint if you're familiar

with with this channel you'll know that

Tesla is one of the only stocks that I

bought recently and I continue to be

bullish on it and I'll present to you

some additional evidence as to why that

is if you want all of my updated trades

including the July 19th 200 calls that

we bought in June including all of my

alerts of when I was dollar cost

averaging into Tesla make sure that you

sign up using the link below come and

join the trading floor we day trade at

Market open every single day let's get

right into it so looking at the chart

here there's one thing that I want to

point out to you this level right here 3

$8 which also happens to be one area of

resistance that we see here as you could

tell that it hit this level multiple

times in 2022 now this is the level that

with the current number of shares Tesla

will hit a trillion doll market cap at

$318 and I believe that Tesla will get

to this trillion dollar market cap in

the midterm at $251 which is what

Tesla's trading at currently it has a

market cap of 802 billion and a PE ratio

of 64 which we will get into to later

now even if we leave fundamentals aside

and fundamentals is kind of a funny

thing and I'll describe why that is here

I don't think fundamentals are as black

and white as some investors like to

portray okay fundamentals are definitely

a moving Target and I have proof of that

but the $1 trillion market cap is

something that all of the stocks in the

mag 7 except for Tesla have Nvidia

Microsoft Apple Google Amazon and meta

all of those companies are worth at

least $1 trillion now what do they all

have Inon common and what was one of the

main reasons that I thought Tesla would

actually see a summer rally well they

are all all driven by a future AI

narrative see momentum is a huge

component of short to midterm price

action and in this case the AI narrative

is the dominant story and for me it was

clear to see when Tesla was

consolidating back in June and the

reason that all of these companies have

what seems to be insane valuations and

they are kind of insane valuations is

because AI is such a na n Market nent

markets or premature markets are

impossible to price just look at Nvidia

we don't even know how fast Quantum

Computing will scale we don't even know

when we will reach AGI artificial

general intelligence which we don't have

currently we don't know when we're going

to hit level five autonomy with most

Vehicles we don't know what the demand

will look like what the cost will look

like what the net income will look like

this is all just pie in the sky at at

this moment right so we're reliving the

Jetson all over again we just don't know

how to imagine in this future what we do

know is that it is the future though and

here's a real life example of why

fundamentals in this case in nent

markets are so hard to price if you look

at this Gary black out here tweeted that

anyone short Tesla needs to have their

head examined funny enough they cut

almost their entire position in

September of

2022 but more importantly he says down

here that autonomous vehicles he equates

that to a $5 trillion value right and he

tweeted this in July now if I told you

to guess this guy's position 3 months

ago what do you think it would be right

would there should there be a huge

change if he's pricing Robo taxi at $5

trillion what could he have possibly

priced it three months ago when there

hasn't really been any change in the

fundamentals of robotaxi we don't know

anything about it yet the robo taxi

event is not even until August 8th well

just 3 months ago this same guy Gary

black says we assume zero incremental

Robo Taxi evaluation so this clown

priced Robo taxi at $0 which is fine if

that's his opinion 3 months later

robotaxi is magically worth a potential

$5 trillion larger than any company we

currently have on planet Earth so

although I think that guy is the clown

that is a real life example of how hard

it is to price these fundamentals that

don't really exist yet so with something

like this comes a lot of fomo a lot of

momo which is momentum a lot of hype we

don't know how to price of stuff so we

just continue to buy the stock and the

more that people buy the stock the more

that other people buy the stock the more

that they buy into the hype so let's see

what does Tesla have on the horizon

because this definitely is not because

of just EVS or just because they beat Q2

deliveries that might have been the

Catalyst along with the technicals that

I showed you but definitely the story is

much more than that so let's get into it

so one thing we didn't talk about in the

previous videos so much is Optimus right

if you look at this this is Amazon's

robots here working in the warehouse now

Amazon has

750,000 robots currently working in

their warehouses what's crazy about this

is it says one robot at a warehouse

means 24 human rolles are no longer

required the solution also saves

Trucking costs as well as packing

packaging material each robot Packer

cost $1 million plus running expenses

now this robot that they're talking

about that costs a million is different

than the human humanoid looking robot

but you get the picture of what it could

cost here so when we take a look at

Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot here

doing Simple functions you could see

where the trend is going right if Amazon

already has

750,000 robots that's just one company

right it's

clearly we the the the world is moving

in that direction where we are not going

to require humans to do do this stuff

now that's another conversation of what

do humans do at that point but you could

see where the you know where the the

world is trending at least with regards

to this topic here now Elon himself said

Optimus stuff is extremely underrated

the demand could be as high as 10 to 20

billion units now obviously he's talking

about when this stuff is fully optimized

and can actually do functions 24 hours a

day without fail but true if at the

early early stages Amazon has 750,000

almost a million robots and that's at

the early stages right you would just

assume that this stuff is going to grow

more you could see a world where there

are billions of robots serving many

different Industries all around the

world you know think of oil mining or

precious metals mining any sort of

factory or manufacturing job I mean you

can let your imagination run wild and

because Tesla's so good at optimizing

production his prediction is that an

Optimus robot should cost less than half

of a car now one of the biggest banks

Morgan Stanley agrees Morgan Stanley

says that Tesla's humanoid opportunity

is bigger than autonomous cars and that

very well could be the case we don't

know all right and then with regards to

FSD I don't want to dive too much into

that but obviously every Tesla car sold

is a little Revenue generating machine

right once FSD gets so good that it

could take you from point A to point B

autonomously then everyone that owns a

Tesla is going to want to subscribe to

FSD and that's let alone the FSD

licensing for other automakers because

Tesla has spent more time than anybody

else perfecting full self driving

obviously Robo taxi that's the other

business vertical that's so hard to to

price in right if you look at the market

cap of uber it's just a little under

$200 billion some banks are pricing this

at 500 billion some are pricing it at

trillions I really don't know right I I

I have no way of telling how valuable

Robo tax is going to be plus I don't

have the details of it but you know that

it's going to be worth at least the size

of one tech company right and like

everybody else I'm very curious to see

what ends up getting talked about or

rolled out on August 8th now one area

that might bring in a ton of Revenue

that's not really related to AI is

battery storage and if you look I I've

told you guys to follow this person on

Twitter before AJ a

OJ on X if you look at this person's

estimates for battery storage based on

all of the information that we know now

and remember that Tesla is reporting

earnings on July 23rd so we will have

confirmation of the stuff but that their

battery storage revenues can actually

hit a new all-time high of 3.3 billion

which is an increase of 14% quarter over

quarter last quarter we saw energy

generation revenue of 1.6 billion now

for those of you that don't know what

this is it's basically if you have solar

panels there's no way of storing that

energy you it's basically what whatever

is consumed by the sun you either use it

or just get sent back to the grid you

cannot store it and save it for later

whereas with this battery storage or

energy storage uh facility if you have

this installed at your home you can

actually take in the energy from the Sun

from the solar panels and store it so

that you can use it later and then

obviously we have deliveries I want to

make one point about deliveries yes q1

of 2024 did disappoint q1 always

disappoints and it is usually the lowest

of Tesla's year but q1 2024 definitely

disappointed Q2 2024 came in higher than

expected but if you look at this 444,000

number it actually was only beat out by

two other quarters June of 2023 and

December of 2023 other than that this is

the third best quarter Tesla has ever

had in terms of deliveries now at some

point we will get word on the cheaper

the model 2 which is supposed to be

priced in the 20 $25,000 range so we'll

see if that actually has an impact on

deliveries as well but if each one of

these business verticals is priced into

the hundreds of billions for instance

right let's just say on the conservative

side then of course I see the market cap

of Tesla well over $1 trillion and at

that point you cannot compare Tesla to a

Toyota or to whatever car manufacturer

right like all of these things that we

just talked about who else is doing this

who else has the ability to scale who

else has the knowhow so in my view I

think in the midterm Tesla does hit that

1 trillion market cap and at that point

it'll just be a wait and see when it

comes uh down to earnings when it comes

down to the robo taxi event those might

be sell-off events who knows it really

depends on what they report I'm not

Nostradamus but in the long term I'm

very comfortable with Tesla being an

over1 trillion do company of course how

could it not unless every single one of

these things that I talked about ends up

you know faltering and if we take a look

at Tesla's PE ratio right now sitting at

64 now as a car company obviously that's

expensive but Tesla is not just a car

company right and I know that you might

have been tired of people saying that

but I think I proved it here and I'm not

just talking about FSD right I'm talking

about things that have nothing to do

with cars energy storage Optimus Etc and

if you look historically this is

actually pretty cheap for Tesla ever

since Tesla started making money in 2020

this is actually pretty cheap for Tesla

and historically Tesla has actually been

priced less than this at a much higher

PE so for instance December 31st 2020

Tesla was priced at

$235 in today's terms and its PE ratio

was ,100 right now it's priced at $251

and its PE ratio is 64 now from a

technical perspective obviously I want

to see Tesla pop Above This 2-year trend

line here right that's obvious I want to

see a healthy close above that and then

we can start talking about the 318 level

in the short term however if it doesn't

hit that 318 level before earnings which

again earnings are on July 23rd then yes

of course earnings could derail that we

could see a hell of a pullback there

right I'm not Nostradamus I don't know

what's going to happen on earnings now

if we continue to go up after earnings

then I will definitely be looking to

sell around the robo taxi event as I

think it could be a sell the new sort of

event like he would have to announce

something huge like that he's hiring uh

Travis kenck or whatever that guy's name

is who used to be the CEO of uber I know

today he came out and said that that

wasn't going to happen but who knows who

knows what happens on that announcement

I definitely think it's crazy for you

guys to be shorting this after my last

Tesla video I got so many haters in the

comments saying that they were going to

short take the opposite position I'm

sure all of them are burned right now

you know taking job applications at

McDonald's that it would be crazy to

short this but I'll just tell it to you

like this if you like what you hear on

earnings if you like what you hear on

Robo taxi then then you definitely

should be buying the pullbacks in my

opinion if you don't like what you hear

if you don't believe in Optimist you

don't believe in FSD you don't believe

in Robo taxi you don't believe in energy

storage you don't believe in the model 2

you don't believe in increasing margins

once the economy gets better you don't

believe in all of these things and yeah

of course the company is not for you

like that's fine it doesn't have to be

anyway let me know your thoughts in the

comment section below did you buy when

we were talking about it did you

recently buy did you buy a long time ago

are you looking to sell right now are

you shorting it I know a lot of you did

short it and are deleting your comments

now but that's neither here and nor

there leave it in the comment section

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