Tesla Stock Short Squeeze is about to EXPLODE

Michael Tyler
28 Sept 202422:15

Summary

TLDRThe video discusses Tesla's stock performance, predicting a short squeeze due to short sellers covering shares and upcoming catalysts like the Robo taxi event and Q3 delivery numbers. The presenter anticipates a significant rally in Tesla's stock if delivery numbers exceed expectations, cautioning about potential sell-off after the event. Economic data and its impact on the stock market are also highlighted, with a focus on Tesla's technical indicators showing positive momentum.

Takeaways

  • πŸš€ Tesla's stock price is rising despite a declining market, indicating a potential short squeeze.
  • πŸ“ˆ The speaker believes Tesla is in a short squeeze due to short sellers covering their positions ahead of October 10th.
  • πŸ’Ή Positive news such as the Fed cutting rates and the Robo taxi catalyst could drive more short covering.
  • πŸ“Š The stock charts are favorable, and there's anticipation for Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) buying and panic short covering.
  • πŸ”’ The speaker predicts that if Tesla's stock rallies to the 280s, more short sellers may cover, potentially propelling the stock to the 300s.
  • πŸ—“οΈ A significant catalyst is upcoming with Tesla's Q2 and Q3 delivery numbers to be announced on October 2nd.
  • πŸš— There's a possibility of a new record quarter for Tesla with deliveries of 488,000 or more, surpassing Wall Street estimates.
  • πŸ“Ί CNBC reports a surge in Tesla's stock, up 21% in September, and notes high options activity suggesting bullish sentiment.
  • 🌐 China's market is seen as a positive driver for Tesla's demand, with favorable financing and leasing terms.
  • πŸ“‰ The speaker warns of potential risks, including a possible 'sell the news' event after the Robo taxi reveal on October 10th.
  • πŸ“ˆ The speaker has been accurate in predicting Tesla's delivery numbers and anticipates a strong rally if the numbers are good.

Q & A

  • What is the current situation of Tesla's stock according to the script?

    -Tesla's stock is accelerating higher even as the markets are declining, which the speaker believes indicates a short squeeze.

  • What does the speaker mean by 'short squeeze' in the context of Tesla's stock?

    -The speaker means that short sellers are covering their positions, leading to an increase in Tesla's stock price, which is expected to continue as more shares need to be covered by October 10th.

  • What factors contribute to the potential short squeeze on Tesla's stock?

    -Factors contributing to the potential short squeeze include the Federal Reserve cutting rates, a soft landing narrative, and Tesla's Robo taxi catalyst.

  • What is the significance of the date October 10th mentioned in the script?

    -October 10th is significant because it is when the Robo taxi event is anticipated, which could cause uncertainty and potentially lead to more short covering.

  • What is the speaker's prediction for Tesla's stock price if the company's Q3 delivery numbers are better than expected?

    -If Tesla's Q3 delivery numbers are better than expected, the speaker predicts a significant rally in Tesla's stock price, possibly setting a new record quarter for the company.

  • What are the current Wall Street estimates for Tesla's Q3 deliveries?

    -The current Wall Street estimates for Tesla's Q3 deliveries are around 465,000 to 470,000 vehicles.

  • What is the potential impact on Tesla's stock price if the company achieves a new record for Q3 deliveries?

    -Achieving a new record for Q3 deliveries could lead to a substantial rally in Tesla's stock price, with the potential to reach the $300s by October 10th.

  • What upcoming economic data might affect Tesla's stock price according to the script?

    -Economic data such as Chicago PMIs, Dallas Fed manufacturing, ISM Services PMI, and non-farm payrolls could affect Tesla's stock price, especially if they indicate a weakening economy.

  • What is the speaker's view on the potential for Tesla's stock price to rise significantly before the Robo taxi event?

    -The speaker believes there is a possibility for Tesla's stock price to rise significantly before the Robo taxi event, especially if the company releases impressive Q3 delivery numbers.

  • What are the risks mentioned in the script that could affect Tesla's stock price?

    -The risks mentioned include a potential 'sell the news' event after the Robo taxi reveal, economic data that could indicate a weakening economy, and the overall market reaction to upcoming earnings season.

Outlines

00:00

πŸš€ Tesla's Stock Surge Amid Market Decline

The speaker believes Tesla's stock is experiencing a short squeeze driven by data indicating short sellers are covering their positions. They anticipate a continued rise in Tesla's stock due to factors such as the Fed's rate cut, a soft landing narrative, and the potential impact of Tesla's Robo taxi announcement. The speaker also discusses the importance of Tesla's delivery numbers for Q2 and Q3, which are expected to be released on October 2nd, and how exceeding expectations could significantly boost the stock price. They mention the stock's potential to reach the 300s by October 10th if positive news continues.

05:00

πŸ“ˆ Bullish Sentiments and Options Activity

The paragraph discusses the bullish sentiment around Tesla's stock, with analysts predicting higher delivery numbers than the consensus and China emerging as a positive driver for demand. The speaker highlights the divergence between buy side and sell side opinions and points out the significant increase in options trading volume for Tesla, suggesting a potential short squeeze. They also mention the upcoming Robo taxi reveal and its potential to further drive the stock price up, contingent on the event's success and the market's reaction to the delivery numbers.

10:01

πŸ“‰ Short Squeeze and Economic Risks

Here, the speaker focuses on the short interest in Tesla's stock and the recent covering of short positions, suggesting that shorts are in trouble as the stock price rises. They discuss the potential for a significant short squeeze if Tesla's delivery numbers meet or exceed expectations. The speaker also tempers optimism with a discussion of upcoming economic data that could impact the stock market, including manufacturing and service sector indicators, as well as job openings and the unemployment rate.

15:02

πŸ“Š Analyzing Economic Data and Tesla's Future

The speaker provides an in-depth analysis of the upcoming economic data that could influence Tesla's stock price, emphasizing the importance of the non-farm payrolls report. They express a mild concern about the potential impact of this data on the market but also suggest that the government may have an interest in preventing a significant economic downturn before the election. The paragraph also touches on Tesla's technical indicators, suggesting that the stock is positioned for further gains.

20:04

πŸ’Ή Technical Analysis and Investor Strategy

In this paragraph, the speaker discusses the technical analysis of Tesla's stock, mentioning the MACD and RSI indicators, which suggest a potential for a larger rally. They advise on investment strategies, suggesting that while the current price might be attractive for long-term investors, there may be better buying opportunities for those willing to wait, especially after the economic data and Tesla's event outcomes are known.

Mindmap

Keywords

πŸ’‘Short Squeeze

A short squeeze occurs when a stock's price rises sharply, forcing traders who had bet against the stock (short sellers) to buy it in order to prevent further losses. This buying activity can drive the price even higher. In the video, the speaker suggests that Tesla might be experiencing a short squeeze, as indicated by a rise in stock price despite a declining market and the need for short sellers to cover their positions.

πŸ’‘Hedge Funds

Hedge funds are investment vehicles that pool capital from accredited individuals or institutional investors and invest in a variety of assets, often using complex strategies. In the context of the video, the speaker mentions that hedge funds holding short positions in Tesla might need to cover to reduce risk, which could contribute to a short squeeze.

πŸ’‘FOMO (Fear of Missing Out)

FOMO is a psychological phenomenon where people feel compelled to buy an asset for fear of missing out on potential gains. The video discusses the possibility of FOMO buying in Tesla shares, which could lead to a rapid increase in the stock price as more investors jump in, fearing they will miss out on further gains.

πŸ’‘Panic Short Covering

Panic short covering refers to a situation where short sellers rush to buy back shares they've borrowed to cover their short positions due to a rapidly rising stock price, often out of fear of incurring further losses. The video suggests that panic short covering could occur in Tesla's stock, contributing to a potential explosive rally in price.

πŸ’‘Robo Taxi Catalyst

A catalyst in finance is an event or development that triggers a significant change in a security's price. The video mentions the 'Robo Taxi Catalyst', which refers to Tesla's self-driving taxi service announcement, expected to boost the stock price by demonstrating the company's technological advancement and future business potential.

πŸ’‘Delivery Numbers

Delivery numbers refer to the quantity of vehicles sold by Tesla in a given period. The video discusses the anticipation of Tesla's Q3 delivery numbers as a significant catalyst for the stock price. High delivery numbers could signal strong consumer demand and business performance, positively impacting investor sentiment.

πŸ’‘MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

MACD is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of a security's price. A higher MACD value suggests positive momentum. In the video, the speaker mentions Tesla's MACD as an indicator of the stock's upward trend and potential for further rallies.

πŸ’‘RSI (Relative Strength Index)

RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. It is used to identify overbought or oversold conditions in the price of a stock. The video discusses Tesla's RSI to gauge whether the stock is overbought and potentially due for a price correction or if it has room for further price increases.

πŸ’‘Economic Data

Economic data refers to statistics that are used to evaluate a country's economic performance. The video mentions upcoming economic data releases that could impact the stock market and Tesla's stock price, as they reflect the overall health of the economy and can influence investor sentiment.

πŸ’‘Options Trading

Options trading involves buying or selling contracts that grant the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a set price before a certain date. The video discusses the high volume of options trading in Tesla, suggesting significant investor interest and potential volatility in the stock price.

πŸ’‘Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is the study of historical market data, primarily price and volume, to predict future market movements. The video references technical analysis of Tesla's stock, looking at price trends and indicators to forecast future price movements and potential entry or exit points for trades.

Highlights

Tesla's stock price increased despite the overall market decline.

The speaker believes Tesla is experiencing a short squeeze.

Data suggests short sellers are covering their positions.

Hedge funds may need to cover more shares in Tesla before October 10th.

The Federal Reserve's rate cut and the soft landing narrative could influence Tesla's stock.

Tesla's Robo taxi catalyst is a significant event that could affect stock price.

The potential for an explosive Tesla short squeeze is discussed.

Charts indicate a positive trend for Tesla's stock.

FOMO buying and panic short covering are expected around Tesla's stock.

Uncertainty around the robotaxi event could lead to more short covering.

The stock price rally to the 280s could trigger more short covering.

The speaker shares their views on Tesla's stock movement and upcoming Q2 and Q3 delivery numbers.

Tesla's delivery numbers for Q2 and Q3 are expected to be released on October 2nd.

The potential for a new record quarter for Tesla is discussed.

CNBC reports Tesla's stock surge ahead of Q3 deliveries.

Tesla's stock is up 21% in September, its best month since June of last year.

Options traders are focusing on Tesla and Nvidia.

Analysts are becoming more bullish on Tesla ahead of delivery numbers.

China's favorable financing terms could boost Tesla's sales.

The divergence between buy side and sell side opinions on Tesla's stock.

Rivian's stock charts are inversely related to Tesla's.

The importance of Tesla's delivery numbers and the potential stock rally.

The potential impact of the robotex event on Tesla's stock price.

The risks and concerns heading into the week of the robotex event.

Economic data for September and October and its potential impact on Tesla's stock.

Technical analysis of Tesla's stock indicates a potential for a larger rally.

The MACD and RSI indicators for Tesla's stock are positive.

The speaker's strategy for trading Tesla's earnings season.

Transcripts

play00:00

as you seen on Friday Tesla's stock

play00:03

accelerated higher even as the markets

play00:05

were declining I believe Tesla is

play00:09

already in a short squeeze I've said

play00:11

this before here on the channel but I

play00:13

want to elaborate briefly on what I mean

play00:15

by this I mean the data tells us short

play00:18

sellers are covering there's a lot more

play00:21

shares that need to be covered between

play00:23

now and October 10th to

play00:25

drisk the hedge funds portfolios in

play00:28

Tesla right if you're short on Tesla The

play00:31

fed's Cutting rates 50 basis points

play00:33

there's this soft Landing narrative and

play00:34

Tesla has this massive Robo taxi

play00:36

Catalyst you want to cover on your short

play00:38

position now the question really is does

play00:42

this turn into some kind of explosive

play00:44

Tesla short squeeze and I think the

play00:47

answer to that is yes number one the

play00:49

charts look great number two heading

play00:52

into October 10th there's going to be a

play00:53

lot more fomo buying that takes place in

play00:56

Tesla and with fomo buying you're going

play00:59

to get

play01:00

some Panic short covering I believe at

play01:04

the same time because of the uncertainty

play01:07

that will be around the robotex event

play01:09

and just as the losses start to pile up

play01:12

really above 250 the losses are starting

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to get a lot okay not to mention if

play01:19

tesel stock rallies to the 280s that's

play01:21

another critical level that you could

play01:24

start to see more shorts covering and

play01:25

that could help Propel us to the 300s

play01:27

and potentially to that 32 23 25 area by

play01:32

October 10th these are just My Views

play01:34

these are just my opinions but if we do

play01:37

get good news between now and then

play01:39

that's going to help Propel Tesla stock

play01:42

even higher with that we do have a big

play01:45

Catalyst coming up that I think robot

play01:49

the robotex event has kind of clouded

play01:52

the um forite for other Catalyst but

play01:56

this is the delivery numbers for Q2 Q3

play02:01

Q3 Q3 coming uh on October 2nd that is

play02:06

next Wednesday okay and with this

play02:12

Catalyst if it comes in better than

play02:15

expected you could see Tesla stock rally

play02:18

something fierce in fact this could be a

play02:21

new record quarter for Tesla it's

play02:24

possible Tesla would have to really beat

play02:26

expectations but it's possible to get a

play02:29

new record third quarter for

play02:31

Tesla which would be like

play02:34

488,000 deliveries or more I just put

play02:38

some rough numbers there uh current Wall

play02:41

Street estimates are around 465 to

play02:43

470,000 but if there was strength in the

play02:46

US you could see a new record quarter

play02:49

for Tesla with that said in this video

play02:53

we will discuss where I think Tesla

play02:55

stock is going well where it will be

play02:57

going what I think the delivery number

play02:59

roughly will be I I will have a full

play03:02

in-depth breakdown of you know what what

play03:05

my estimate is for this Wednesday's

play03:07

delivery number but that video will be

play03:09

coming out tomorrow so stay tuned to the

play03:11

channel for that one we will briefly

play03:13

talk about my expectations roughly in

play03:16

this video and what kind of effect that

play03:18

can have to Tesla stock we also have

play03:22

some risks coming up this week that I

play03:24

will highlight in this video but first I

play03:28

want to start with what CNBC just said

play03:30

about Tesla stock it's it's actually

play03:32

this clip here it says Tesla jumps ahead

play03:34

of Q3

play03:43

deliveries M Tesla showing some Sparks

play03:46

of Life surging nearly 10% this week and

play03:48

far outpacing uh the rest of the mag 7

play03:50

stocks the stock is up 21% in September

play03:53

its best month since June of last year

play03:55

and games come ahead of Q3 delivery

play03:57

numbers coming next Wednesday and the

play03:59

highly anticipated Robo taxi reveal

play04:02

coming almost a week later Mike I know

play04:05

this one's in the Holly the the infamous

play04:06

or famous however you look at it Holly

play04:09

index you drive one um what are your

play04:11

thoughts on the stocks move here yeah

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she well she drives one I I do not drive

play04:16

one she drives one yeah well sometimes I

play04:19

drive it I guess we had we had a couple

play04:21

of them at the end of last year we have

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only one of them now um yeah I mean this

play04:25

is look this is always one of the

play04:26

busiest uh options around it's uh it was

play04:29

is the second most active in terms of

play04:31

call volume today behind perennial front

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runner these days at least Nvidia but of

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course it's a higher dollar stock price

play04:37

so the difference in the contract

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quantity between the two is not as big

play04:41

as it might first appear it traded

play04:43

almost 1 a. half million call contracts

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versus a million on average per day and

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to think about how big an increase that

play04:49

is 400,000 plus contracts over the

play04:52

average daily volume the third place uh

play04:55

name is Amazon and and that only traded

play04:57

about 440,000 call contracts in total so

play05:00

you know when you see this kind of an

play05:01

uptick it is Meaningful I mean options

play05:03

Traders are are playing basically in

play05:05

Tesla and Nvidia exclusively it seems

play05:07

like yeah a lot of the analysts are

play05:09

getting um more bullish going into the

play05:11

delivery numbers wed Bush just today

play05:13

saying that they see upside to consensus

play05:15

numbers and that China is actually going

play05:17

to be a positive driver for demand

play05:20

there's favorable financing and leasing

play05:21

terms there that could really help it

play05:23

boost uh sales there's definitely been

play05:25

upgrades the China news this week along

play05:27

with all the other China news but it was

play05:29

Tesla in China that was coming through

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they've got this 1.99% 6-year uh

play05:33

financing which has to be supporting you

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know the Bears are going to say what do

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you what happens without that um and

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I've also seen some pretty pretty clear

play05:42

Divergence between buy side and sells

play05:44

side on this buy side is actually a

play05:45

little bit more pessimistic um let's see

play05:47

where we go and if you look at rivian's

play05:49

charts the inverse of Tesla's charts so

play05:52

Tesla is truly moving on China Robo taxi

play05:55

everything's been pushed off the whisper

play05:57

number is higher than the streets number

play06:00

usually usually is but if they blow that

play06:03

number out people are still going to be

play06:04

scrambling to chase this one remember

play06:06

blow it out meaning in a good way to the

play06:08

upside and and remember g g it's true GM

play06:11

scrapped their Robo taxi plans so

play06:15

realistically it's weo and it's Tesla

play06:18

and if Tesla could keep that momentum

play06:20

going if we waited this long if it's an

play06:23

exciting unve reveal then the stock can

play06:26

go higher

play06:41

and that's basically it as that last guy

play06:43

said there if Tesla has a blowout number

play06:46

to the upside Tesla stock is is going to

play06:50

Rally a lot I believe if Wednesday's

play06:54

number is good Tesla stocks at least

play06:57

going up 7% % okay that would put the

play07:02

stock like like better than expected

play07:04

like

play07:05

472,000 delivery something like that the

play07:09

Stock's going up probably 7% around

play07:14

$278 to call it 280 right between 7 and

play07:19

8% if Tesla has a

play07:22

blowout like

play07:25

492,000 deliveries Tesla stocks going up

play07:28

10 plus percent

play07:30

and that would put the stock at about

play07:32

$287 per share if Tesla is over 500,000

play07:36

deliveries which I think is a

play07:38

possibility then Tesla stocks going up

play07:40

15% on Wednesday and Tesla is going to

play07:44

be a $300 stock by this upcoming

play07:47

Wednesday now do I think that's the base

play07:50

case scenario no I think a number

play07:54

between 283 and

play07:58

292 is

play08:00

roughly where we will be I will have a

play08:02

more final you know conclusion on that

play08:06

um coming out tomorrow it's going to

play08:09

take a little bit more research um more

play08:11

number crunching to actually get a a a

play08:13

more accurate number but let's let's

play08:16

face it guys I I have been the most

play08:18

accurate predictor of Tesla deliveries

play08:21

over the last couple of quarters

play08:25

um sometimes within a thousand Vehicles

play08:28

right and and if I'm correct again we're

play08:33

going to have a pretty monster rally on

play08:36

Wednesday and from there the question

play08:40

becomes how much hype does Tesla get we

play08:43

already know the option activity is

play08:45

elevated I mean as as that guy said on

play08:48

on CNBC the last guy there or was it the

play08:51

first guy there that was calling out the

play08:53

option activity yeah he's he's he's not

play08:55

wrong if you take a look at the

play08:57

interesting flow sentiment on Friday you

play08:59

had

play09:00

156 different trades from hedge funds

play09:02

and institutions totaling

play09:05

$337

play09:07

million like a week ago two weeks ago we

play09:11

were trading like 7 to10 million a day

play09:14

in option activity it has surged

play09:17

thousands of percents in uh total option

play09:21

activity you also had a positive order

play09:23

value of 81% which is um pretty damn

play09:26

good as well so there is definitely a

play09:29

lot of people looking at Tesla right now

play09:32

there's definitely a lot of people I

play09:33

think that are on the verge of getting

play09:35

fomo I think some people are um right

play09:38

there but have not yet pulled the

play09:40

trigger yet and I do think the shorts

play09:42

are in a world a world of trouble

play09:46

heading into this week you have short

play09:47

interest offer flow at

play09:49

2.77% you have $19.59 billion currently

play09:53

sold short the amount of shares sold

play09:55

short sitting at

play09:57

77.08 million and uh over the past

play10:00

couple of days you've

play10:02

seen about 6 and A5 million shares that

play10:05

have actually been covered in just the

play10:07

last few days uh even on Friday you had

play10:10

331,000 shares that were covered but it

play10:12

was really that big

play10:15

day here um when when Tesla went up 5%

play10:19

on September 23rd that you actually had

play10:21

around 5 million shares they got covered

play10:24

on that day alone um September 19th was

play10:27

also another really big day just to zoom

play10:30

back out a little bit um you did have a

play10:33

couple million shares that were covered

play10:35

there but really above 250 things start

play10:37

to get brutal for the

play10:39

shorts and let's say Tesla does come in

play10:42

around my you know target range for

play10:46

deliveries Tesla could see a 10% day and

play10:49

be a $286 $287 stock and that's really

play10:54

going to put the shorts in a bad

play10:56

position okay that's you don't want to

play10:58

be short and Tesla with good news

play11:01

heading into what could be a really good

play11:03

you know event for Tesla now I want to

play11:06

tame some expectations here at least a

play11:08

little bit the more Tesla

play11:11

rallies the greater the chances of a

play11:14

sell the news event um Coming October

play11:17

10th if Wall Street gets super excited

play11:20

about this robotex event if Tesla stock

play11:22

does rally to 300 or 320 as I think is

play11:25

certainly you know in the cards over the

play11:27

next two weeks

play11:30

then if Tesla does not deliver an

play11:33

impress the stock could fall 10% at

play11:36

least following the roblex event it

play11:39

could fall more than that just depending

play11:41

on you know if there were to be a fail

play11:43

like Google had with their you know

play11:45

chatbot assistant at their event um

play11:48

couple months ago right am I expecting a

play11:51

a failure no am I

play11:53

expecting definitive guidance on when we

play11:56

get the roel tax event not really or

play12:00

when we get the first Robel TXI ride not

play12:01

really I think that's the biggest wild

play12:05

card though if we get a robotaxi event

play12:09

that goes off without a hitch great we

play12:13

still sell the news after if we get a

play12:15

root taxi event that goes off without a

play12:18

hitch and Tesla tells us we're going to

play12:20

get roo taxi rides in

play12:22

2025 then Tesla stock goes higher

play12:25

following the robotex event even if it's

play12:27

$300 plus dollars Tesla stock probably

play12:29

goes higher if not holds up its gain uh

play12:33

but that's the real question do we get

play12:35

that definitive

play12:36

guidance I don't

play12:38

know with that said we also do have some

play12:42

risk factors to consider for this

play12:43

upcoming week now am I super concerned

play12:47

no am I mildly concerned I guess that's

play12:50

a way of putting it as I've said here on

play12:52

this channel for a while now I do think

play12:55

the economic data for the month of

play12:57

September and October is going to be

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okay now I think October is going to be

play13:01

a little bit worse than September but I

play13:04

think heading into the

play13:06

election people don't want to see I'm

play13:08

just going to use people so I don't get

play13:10

blacklisted here people don't want to

play13:12

see the economy get worse that's like

play13:14

the worst thing for the event that we

play13:16

have on November what 6th 5th uh is that

play13:20

Election Day November

play13:21

6th I believe might be the fifth um

play13:25

but that's the worst thing that can

play13:27

happen is the economy goes

play13:30

crashes and burns you don't want to see

play13:32

that happen I I I do think the economic

play13:34

data is coming in much better than my

play13:37

business connects tell me what I hear

play13:39

from other people some of the the non

play13:44

go um you know data that we get like

play13:47

like Michigan consumer sentiment or the

play13:50

nfib consumer confidence Index right

play13:53

some of these things are just coming in

play13:54

a lot worse even some of the FED

play13:56

manufacturing data that we got last week

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Kansas fed Richmond fed all showing

play14:00

employment starting to Hemorrhage in the

play14:02

factory sector of um of this economy and

play14:07

it's just not painting the same picture

play14:10

that we get from some gov

play14:12

data now on Monday you're going to get

play14:15

Chicago pmis Dallas fed manufacturing a

play14:17

speech from Jerome Powell I think

play14:19

manufacturing is important here because

play14:21

again you know does the Dallas fed

play14:23

Manufacturing Index also come in really

play14:25

bad that's going to start to paint a bad

play14:26

picture for the the overall you know

play14:29

manufacturing segment of this country

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but you do have Isa manufacturing pmis

play14:33

that come in Tuesday Morning expecting a

play14:36

relatively unchanged number from last

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month via some of the data we've got

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from manufacturing already that could

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come in much lower you are also

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expecting jolts job openings now job

play14:46

openings if they come down it's not

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going to be good okay because apparently

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there's more people entering the

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workforce trying to find jobs if there's

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less jobs available unemployment rate

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Rises okay that's what Geral Powell even

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said um on September 18th on the podium

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when he cut rates 50 basis points so you

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do not want to see a big drop in jolts

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job openings you're really not expecting

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much of a drop at all Wednesday you just

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got some fed speakers nothing too crazy

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there Thursday you have ISM Services PMI

play15:19

that will be important again there's a

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lot of different sub component of I ISM

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Manufacturing and ISM services pmis that

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come out this week including new orders

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prices paid employment and business

play15:31

activity and wall Street's going to

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scrutinize each and every single one of

play15:35

these these these individual data points

play15:37

and say what does this mean for the

play15:39

broader economy right now Friday is the

play15:42

Big Data we're expecting non-farm

play15:43

payrolls around 145,000 U for the month

play15:46

of September and the unemployment rate

play15:48

expected to stay at 4.2% here's the deal

play15:51

though the unemployment rate went from

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4.26% so we all know how to round right

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anything above

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like a you know 4.25 is rounded up to

play16:04

4.3% anything below 4.25 is rounded down

play16:10

to 4.2 so that's essentially what

play16:13

happened we went from 4.26% down to

play16:17

4.22% so the decimal is important here

play16:20

because it gets rounded for the headline

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number so if we go back up to

play16:26

4.25 again not a big deal

play16:29

that that's kind of where we just were

play16:30

at last month but it would look like

play16:33

we're going to

play16:34

4.3% on the headline unemployment rate

play16:37

now that there's a big difference

play16:38

between just going up another three or

play16:40

four points or going to you know

play16:47

4 32% or

play16:50

4.34% then you're going to come in at

play16:53

4.3% but you're actually going to be

play16:55

rounding down because that would be

play16:56

quite a large jump in the unemployment

play16:58

rate

play16:59

okay and if we were to come in you know

play17:02

at 4.4% or something like that that

play17:04

would also be very problematic non-farm

play17:06

payrolls we did get a warning from City

play17:08

Bank that says they could come in around

play17:11

70,000 and that would be probably a 3 to

play17:15

5% selloff for markets if that happened

play17:18

now is that my expectation probably not

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again the gov don't want doesn't want to

play17:23

make it look like the economy is just

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rapidly deteriorating right before in

play17:27

you know election takes place place

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so again I'm not too concerned about

play17:33

this week's upcoming economic data I'm

play17:35

mildly concerned and I think it could

play17:37

put a damper on things especially if

play17:39

Friday's jobs report comes in bad but

play17:41

again by then we're going to have the

play17:42

delivery numbers for Tesla that

play17:44

are I mean from all measures that that

play17:48

that we can see are going to come in

play17:50

pretty good regardless question is how

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good do they come in and uh and we'll

play17:56

get more estimates from other firms

play17:58

coming out for Tesla deliveries over the

play18:00

next couple of days and that could even

play18:01

help Propel Tesla stock higher um

play18:04

heading into

play18:14

Wednesday now if you look at Tesla stock

play18:16

on a technical basis I mean the stock is

play18:18

just grinding higher at this point right

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you haven't got this blowoff top kind of

play18:24

Gap up um like a behavior I guess if you

play18:27

will that you see during the other large

play18:30

rallies in Tesla Tesla doesn't usually

play18:32

just tend to grind higher it tends to

play18:34

get a grind higher for for a period and

play18:37

then just a couple of days where things

play18:39

really explode right this rally in July

play18:42

you kind of grinded higher and then you

play18:45

had a 6% day and then you had a 10% day

play18:47

and then you had a 6 and a 12% day all

play18:50

back to back and then you had another 4%

play18:52

day and it was basically over with at

play18:54

that point right so it's possible we

play18:56

could just start getting a couple big

play18:58

days

play18:59

um especially you know maybe Tuesday or

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Wednesday maybe Thursday right that that

play19:06

will push Tesla stock higher so so I

play19:09

think there's an opportunity to the

play19:10

upside here but I do think if if you're

play19:13

not in Tesla right now you might you

play19:17

know be better off waiting until after

play19:18

the event to see how the economy does

play19:20

keep in mind I'm in the hard Landing

play19:22

Camp so if we get a hard Landing Tesla

play19:24

Stock's going to come down again right

play19:26

this is I I I don't think this is is the

play19:29

last opportunity to buy Tesla um you

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know below $300 per share I

play19:36

unfortunately I'm in the hard Landing

play19:38

Camp right and until I get some data or

play19:40

some reasoning to to um sway that belief

play19:45

then you know I I I think there will be

play19:47

a better buying opportunity of course if

play19:49

you're a long-term investor I I I think

play19:51

now is a beautiful price right you're

play19:53

still 40% roughly off of alltime highs

play19:56

like this is still a great time to buy

play19:58

Tesla regard L um but if you're you know

play20:01

more tactical and and and willing to be

play20:03

a little bit more patient I think you

play20:05

will get somewhat a better buying

play20:07

opportunity now the macd for Tesla is at

play20:10

10.52 signal line at 7.3 things look

play20:14

really good there the RSI is at 67.3

play20:17

three I think why that's important as

play20:19

well is because normally on this grind

play20:21

higher that Tesla tends to do during

play20:24

large rally phases you get to about 70

play20:27

and then you see the explosion

play20:30

afterwards that that pushes you into you

play20:32

know the 80s or so and I believe it was

play20:35

in July Tesla was the no maybe it was

play20:40

yeah yeah July uh Tesla was the most

play20:42

overbought stock in the markets at that

play20:45

time it had an RSI of of almost 90 at

play20:48

one point and uh once you get above 70

play20:51

things just start to get pretty

play20:53

explosive for Tesla so I actually think

play20:56

the RSI looks very good um for an even

play20:59

bigger rally higher so uh these are some

play21:03

of my thoughts my my opinions my

play21:06

projections um a little bit of a concern

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for next week's economic data although I

play21:11

don't think that's going to derail Tesla

play21:13

all too much um Friday is the big wild

play21:16

card the you know jobs report the

play21:19

unemployment rate that is the thing that

play21:21

is really going to set the mood for the

play21:23

whole month of October um for

play21:26

generalized market so I think that's why

play21:28

that is so important nonetheless you

play21:31

guys enjoy the rest of your day let me

play21:32

know what you guys think about this

play21:34

information Down Below in the comment

play21:36

section hit the like button subscribe to

play21:37

the Channel all that good stuff if you

play21:39

guys want to come trade Tesla with us um

play21:41

and other stocks options cryptos

play21:44

anything really anything we want to do

play21:46

over there I I I like to trade a lot of

play21:49

earnings I think I have probably the

play21:51

best earning strategy to play IV to get

play21:53

free contracts and you know turn uh turn

play21:57

free options essentially do a lot of

play21:59

money um I just think my strategy is the

play22:02

best around earnings and we are heading

play22:03

into earning season so if you guys do

play22:05

want to come uh trade with us come join

play22:07

us check out that link Down Below in the

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description of this video nonetheless

play22:11

you guys enjoy your weekends and I will

play22:13

see you in the next one

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