Why will future globalisation be so different | Richard Baldwin | TEDxLausanne

Summary

This talk challenges the traditional image of globalization as merely the exchange of physical goods, proposing a future where digital technology enables 'telework migration,' allowing services to be provided across borders. The speaker discusses the economic incentives and technological advancements, such as online freelancing platforms, machine translation, and advanced telecommunications, that are accelerating this shift. The rapid pace of digital progress, exemplified by the exponential growth in computing power, suggests that this new era of globalization is approaching faster than most anticipate, offering both opportunities and challenges for competitive and less competitive citizens alike.

Takeaways

• 🌐 Globalization is often visualized as cargo ships with containers, but the future of globalization will involve more than just physical goods.
• 😯 The speaker aims to change the perception of globalization and to stir a mix of anxiety and excitement about its future implications.
• 🛠 Globalization has historically been driven by the concept of arbitrage, where companies exploit differences in what countries are good at producing.
• 🚢 Shipping physical goods across borders has been easier than 'shipping' services due to the nature of services requiring the provider and buyer to be in the same place.
• 💡 Digital technology is changing the landscape by making it easier for services to be provided across borders, a phenomenon referred to as 'telework migration'.
• 🌟 The economic incentive for 'telework migration' is significant, with large salary differences between countries creating a push for service globalization.
• 🏡 Domestic telecommuting is expanding to a global scale, with companies arranging to hire foreign freelancers online, potentially reducing costs.
• 🌍 Online freelancing platforms like Upwork are facilitating the buying and selling of services globally, increasing the accessibility of foreign talent.
• 📚 Machine translation has improved drastically, making it easier for non-native speakers to participate in the global service market.
• 🤖 Advanced telecommunications, such as telepresence and telepresence robots, are creating virtual co-presence, further enabling global service provision.
• 📈 The pace of digital technology advancement, illustrated by the exponential growth in processing power, suggests that the shift to service globalization is happening faster than most expect.
• 🚀 While globalization presents opportunities for competitive individuals, it also brings challenges for those less competitive, prompting a dual sense of excitement and concern for the future.

Q & A

What is the traditional image of globalization that the speaker wants to change?

The traditional image of globalization that the speaker wants to change is the mental picture of a cargo ship with lots of containers, which represents the movement of physical goods across borders.

What does the speaker suggest is the fundamental nature of globalization?

The speaker suggests that the fundamental nature of globalization is arbitrage, where companies exploit differences in what countries are especially good at making and sell those goods elsewhere.

Why has globalization historically been more about goods rather than services?

Globalization has been more about goods than services because it's easier to ship physical goods across borders than it is to ship services, which often require the service provider and buyer to be in the same place at the same time.

How is digital technology changing the nature of globalization?

Digital technology is changing the nature of globalization by making it easier for people to perform services across borders, thus enabling 'telework' or 'tell-a-migration', which was previously difficult due to technical barriers.

What are the economic incentives for tell-a-migration according to the speaker?

The economic incentives for tell-a-migration include the significant salary differences across countries, which make it profitable for companies to hire foreign freelancers who can perform services remotely at a lower cost.

What are the four factors the speaker identifies as enabling tell-a-migration?

The four factors enabling tell-a-migration are domestic telecommuting, online freelancing platforms, machine translation, and advanced telecommunications such as telepresence and telepresence robots.

How does the speaker describe the impact of Moore's Law on digital technology and globalization?

The speaker describes the impact of Moore's Law on digital technology and globalization by illustrating the exponential growth in processing speed of devices like iPhones, which has accelerated the pace at which digital technology is transforming the possibilities for globalization.

What is the significance of the iPhone 6 and iPhone 10 comparison in the script?

The comparison between the iPhone 6 and iPhone 10 demonstrates the rapid pace of technological advancement, showing that the progress made in processing speed between 2015 and 2017 was greater than that between 1969 and 2015.

How does the speaker suggest that future globalization will affect different groups of people?

The speaker suggests that future globalization will provide more opportunities for a nation's most competitive citizens, but it will also mean more competition for the least competitive citizens, thus raising both excitement and anxiety.

What is the speaker's final message regarding the audience's perspective on future globalization?

The speaker's final message is that the audience, being competitive citizens, should be more excited than nervous about future globalization, but they should also be mindful of the challenges it presents to the least competitive citizens.