Prepare Yourself! This Is How Much Gold & Silver You Need - 2024 Update

Summary

In this 'Bald Guy Money' episode, the host critiques amateur analysts for overlooking the bullish fundamentals of gold and silver. He highlights the 50-day moving average surpassing the 200-day, indicating a bull market, and gold's performance since 2015, which has outpaced the S&P 500. The host advises focusing on long-term trends rather than daily fluctuations, suggesting that as the market shifts to risk-off, precious metals will surge. He also discusses the importance of having a physical gold and silver stack as a hedge against economic uncertainties, providing a minimum target in troy ounces and addressing the pros and cons of investing in gold and silver ETFs like GLD and SLV.

Takeaways

• 📊 The 50-day moving average price of gold is significantly higher than the 200-day average, indicating a bull market for gold.
• 📈 Gold's performance has been strong since its low in 2015, increasing for nine consecutive years and outperforming the S&P 500 in that period.
• 🌐 The speaker emphasizes focusing on long-term trends rather than short-term volatility in gold and silver prices.
• 📉 Despite recent market highs, there is a suggestion that the stock market may be losing steam, with insiders selling their shares, indicating a potential downturn.
• 🏆 The speaker recommends having a minimum of 5 ounces of gold and 200 ounces of silver as a stacking target to protect against economic uncertainties.
• 💰 The stacking target is said to cover approximately 3.3 months of average American expenses, maintaining its relevance despite inflation.
• 🤔 The speaker questions the current trend of outflows from precious metals ETFs in 2024, suggesting retail investors may be missing an opportunity.
• 📊 The speaker discusses the importance of moving averages and how they can be used to understand market trends in gold and silver.
• 💼 There is a warning about the potential risks of investing in ETFs like GLD and SLV, particularly in the context of a financial system collapse.
• 🏠 The speaker shares personal investment strategies, including using profits from other investments to buy physical gold and silver.
• 👋 The speaker announces an upcoming transition to full-time YouTube content creation and thanks the audience for their support.

Q & A

What is the main topic of the 'Bald Guy Money' video?

The main topic of the video is the discussion of gold and silver as investment options, focusing on the bullish fundamentals and long-term performance, and not being distracted by short-term volatility.

What does the 50-day moving average price of gold being higher than the 200-day moving average price typically indicate?

This typically indicates that the market is in a bull market, as it suggests that the short-term average price is higher than the long-term average, which is a bullish signal.

How has the average closing price for gold performed since its bottom in 2015?

Since its bottom in 2015, the average closing price for gold has increased for nine consecutive years, being up by 90% over that 9-year period.

What is the comparison made between the performance of gold and the S&P 500 over the same 9-year period?

The comparison shows that gold has increased by 90% over the 9-year period, while the S&P 500 has increased by 148%, indicating that gold has performed well even in a risk-on environment.

What is the viewer advised to focus on instead of day-to-day price movements of gold and silver?

The viewer is advised to focus on the big picture and long-term fundamentals, as these are more indicative of the true value and potential of gold and silver as investments.

What is the significance of the outflows from precious metals ETFs in 2024 mentioned in the video?

The outflows indicate that regular retail investors are currently not confident in gold and silver, believing they are at the top and selling out, which the speaker suggests is a misunderstanding of the opportunity these metals present.

What does the speaker suggest about the behavior of insiders at major companies and investment firms?

The speaker suggests that the behavior of insiders, such as selling their stocks, indicates that the stock market may be running out of steam and could be nearing a downturn.

What is the speaker's recommendation for a minimum stacking target of gold and silver?

The speaker recommends a minimum stacking target of five ounces of gold and 200 ounces of silver as a way to protect oneself from economic and systemic uncertainties.

How does the speaker address the potential downside of investing in gold and silver ETFs like GLD and SLV?

The speaker points out that while ETFs offer exposure to the price of gold and silver, they do not provide the same protection as physical metals in the event of a financial system collapse, as they are a paper claim to the metal's value in US dollars.

What is the speaker's stance on using other financial vehicles in addition to gold and silver?

The speaker is open to using other financial vehicles such as stocks, real estate, and even Bitcoin to improve one's financial situation, while also using profits from these investments to buy physical gold and silver as a form of preparation against financial system risks.

Outlines

00:00

📊 Gold and Silver Market Analysis

The speaker, Bald Guy, begins by addressing the shortsighted focus on short-term volatility in gold and silver prices, instead advocating for attention to long-term bullish fundamentals. He uses moving averages to illustrate that gold is in a bull market, with the 50-day average significantly higher than the 200-day average. Since 2015, gold's average closing price has risen for nine consecutive years, outperforming the S&P 500. Bald Guy suggests that gold and silver's performance in a risk-on environment is a strong indicator of their potential in a risk-off scenario, hinting at a deeper market analysis to come.

05:01

📉 Insider Trading and Economic Indicators

This paragraph delves into the behavior of company insiders, using Nvidia as an example to show that a significant number of insiders are selling their shares, suggesting the stock market may be peaking. The speaker points out that the economy is not the same as the stock market, with economic downturns often beginning in the labor market and later affecting stocks. He emphasizes the importance of preparing for economic slowdowns and references a tool on his Patreon for calculating personal gold and silver stacking targets based on individual or family needs.

10:05

💰 ETFs as a Short-Term Trading Tool

The speaker discusses the pros and cons of investing in gold and silver ETFs, such as GLD and SLV. He sees the upside as a quick and convenient way for short-term traders to gain exposure to precious metals without the need for physical storage. However, for long-term investors looking to protect against a failing fiat money system, he warns that ETFs only offer a paper claim to the metal's value and may not provide the same security as physical holdings in the event of a financial system collapse.

15:07

🏠 Personal Update and Future Plans

In the final paragraph, Bald Guy shares a personal update about his upcoming transition to full-time YouTube content creation in July. He expresses gratitude for the support from his audience, which has allowed his channel to grow rapidly. He also mentions his current move and the changes in his life, signing off with well-wishes for his viewers until the next video.

Keywords

💡Bullish Fundamentals

Bullish fundamentals refer to the positive aspects or factors that suggest an asset's price is likely to rise. In the context of the video, the speaker identifies these as being overlooked by amateur analysts and commentators. The video emphasizes that despite short-term volatility, the long-term trends and underlying factors indicate a positive outlook for gold and silver.

💡Moving Averages

Moving averages are technical indicators that smooth out price data to show the average price of an asset over a specific period. The script mentions the 50-day and 200-day moving averages for gold, using them to illustrate the current bull market, where the 50-day average is higher than the 200-day, signaling upward momentum in the price of gold.

💡Gold Performance

The term 'gold performance' in the script refers to the historical price trends and behavior of gold as an investment. The speaker discusses gold's performance since its low point in 2015, highlighting a consistent increase in the average closing price over several years, which is indicative of its strong performance even in a risk-on market environment.

💡Risk-On Environment

A risk-on environment is a market condition where investors are willing to take on more risk in search of higher returns. The script uses this term to describe the current market sentiment where investors are favoring riskier assets. However, the speaker argues that gold has performed well even in such an environment, suggesting its potential in a risk-off shift.

💡ETFs

ETFs, or Exchange-Traded Funds, are investment funds that are traded on stock exchanges, similar to individual stocks. The script discusses precious metals ETFs, indicating a trend of outflows in 2024, which the speaker interprets as a sign that retail investors may be selling at the top, unaware of the potential for gold and silver to rise further.

💡Insider Transactions

Insider transactions refer to the buying and selling of a company's stock by individuals who have access to non-public information about the company. The script cites Nvidia as an example, noting a significant increase in insider selling, which the speaker suggests is a sign that these insiders believe the stock market is peaking and may be preparing for a downturn.

💡Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate is a measure of the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking work. The script discusses the unemployment rate in four key countries, noting that it is at a 12-month high, which the speaker uses to argue that economic downturns typically start in the labor market and then affect the stock market.

💡Stacking Target

A stacking target in the context of the script refers to a specific amount of gold and silver that an individual should aim to accumulate as a form of financial protection. The speaker provides a historical stacking target from 2021 and updates it for 2024, showing how much gold and silver would cover essential expenses for an average American.

💡GLD and SLV

GLD and SLV are ticker symbols for two of the largest gold and silver ETFs, respectively. The script addresses a viewer's question about the pros and cons of investing in these ETFs. The speaker highlights the benefits for short-term traders but cautions long-term investors about the risks associated with a potential collapse of the financial system.

💡Fiat Money System

The fiat money system refers to a type of currency system where money has value because a government decree says it does, rather than being backed by a physical commodity like gold or silver. The script criticizes this system as 'corrupt and failing,' suggesting that the speaker believes in the long-term value of precious metals over fiat currency.

💡Inflation

Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, purchasing power is falling. The script discusses how the prices of gold and silver have increased due to inflation, but also how these precious metals can act as a hedge against inflation by maintaining purchasing power.

Highlights

The 50-day moving average price of gold is significantly higher than the 200-day moving average, indicating a bull market.

Gold's performance has been strong since 2015, with an average closing price increase for nine consecutive years.

Gold has outperformed the S&P 500 over the past nine years, suggesting its value as a safe haven asset.

Investors may soon shift from riskier investments to safe havens like gold and silver in a risk-off market.

The speaker recommends a minimum target of stacking 5 ounces of gold and 200 ounces of silver as a safeguard.

Gold and silver ETFs have seen outflows in 2024, indicating a lack of retail investor confidence.

Insider sales at major companies like Nvidia suggest that the stock market may be losing steam.

The speaker emphasizes the difference between the economy and the stock market, noting that economic downturns start with the labor market.

Unemployment rates in key countries are at 12-month highs, signaling potential economic slowdowns.

The speaker suggests that physical gold and silver are preferable for long-term protection against economic uncertainties.

The value of 5 ounces of gold and 200 ounces of silver still covers approximately 3.3 months of average American expenses, adjusting for inflation.

GLD and SLV ETFs are suitable for short-term traders but may not offer the same protection as physical metals in a financial collapse.

Physical gold and silver can protect purchasing power against inflation more effectively than ETFs.

The speaker shares personal investment strategies, including using profits from other investments to buy physical gold and silver.

The speaker is preparing to go full-time on YouTube in July, sharing updates on his personal life and plans.

Transcripts

hello everyone welcome to bald guy money

I am bald guy and just yesterday I

shared this post on X talking about how

I am seeing too many amateur analysts

and medals commentators distracted by

short-term volatility in the prices of

gold and silver while totally ignoring

what I think are the bullish

fundamentals for example if we zoom out

and take an honest look at gold

performance starting with the moving

averages so the numbers that measure the

average price of an asset over a

specific period of time what we see here

is that the 50-day moving average price

of gold is at

$2,371 190 per ounce Which is

99.7% higher than the 200 day moving

average price of

$2,629 per ounce and at the risk of

oversimplifying things what this

typically means is when the 50-day

average is higher than the 200 day

average is that you are in a bull market

now if we zoom out a little more since

gold bottomed out in 2015 following the

2011 and 2012 blowoff top that we saw

which brought gold near

$2,000 the average closing price for

gold meaning the average finishing price

for gold at the end of a trading day and

this is a very important statistic has

increased for nine consecutive years and

in fact it's up 90% over that 9 period

9-year period of time I should say

versus 148% for the S&P 500 to give you

a point of reference meaning that for a

safe haven asset it's performed very

well in a risk-on environment so instead

of stressing out about little day-to-day

moves I say focus on the big stuff

because if gold has done this well in a

risk on environment meaning investors

are willing to take on a little more

risk in their Investments as they seek

higher returns just imagine what's going

to happen to the prices of both gold and

silver when the market turns to risk off

as things start to go sour and that's

why in this video I want to dig a little

deeper into that and cover what it is I

am seeing happening in the market that

indicates investors May soon abandon

riskier Investments and move to save

Havens like gold and silver that's the

first point and right before we get to

this video's viewer question I want to

give you all a quick update on how much

gold and silver I think you should stack

as a minimum Target to protect yourself

from economic and systemic uncertainties

and that will be a concrete number in

troy ounces given to you no percentages

so be sure to watch this video to the

very end because it's a very important

one now just before we get into it if

you're in the USA and want to buy gold

or silver at a great price from a

reputable dealer please check out

channel partner pinex pin.com to see

what they have to offer and for those of

you who want to get some gold and silver

in your IRA remember they can help call

them for a free consultation at the

number on the screen to find out how

just please tell them you came from the

bald guy Money Channel okay so jumping

right into this I showed you this image

just a moment ago and I said if you zoom

out gold has done very well in an

environment where the market has

Preferred riskier Investments like

flashy AI stocks and I will take that

one step further and go as far as to say

investors are totally ignoring the

opportunity staring them right in the

face right now because gold and silver

are only just getting started because as

it stands today it's not the average New

York Stock Exchange Trader investment

fund manager or regular Joe retail

investor that has been driving the price

of metals up we've covered this in past

videos and that much is obvious when we

look at how much money has been taken

out of precious metals ETFs in 2024

because this is usually a good sign of

where regular retail investors stand in

relation to their attitude towards gold

and silver and what this data is telling

us right here is that not only do they

not believe gold and silver can go

higher but it's telling us that they

think we're at the top that's why

they're selling out that's why we're

seeing outflows in 2024 as opposed

opposed to inflows even after we've made

decisive breakouts to the upside over

the past few months and I will digress

for a moment and say recent performance

of the mining stocks is showing us us

the exact same thing retail investors do

not understand gold they do not

understand silver or the opportunity

coming in those Metals when the markets

start to come down when the broader

markets start to come down but mark my

words they will come to appreciate the

stability and safety that gold and

silver offer and they will start to pile

back into the very ETFs that they're

selling off once the stock market starts

to correct because if the behavior of

insiders at the world's biggest

companies and investment firms is any

indication of where risk on investments

are in their life cycle right now it's

that the stock market is slowly running

out of steam and I know I've been

talking about this for about a year now

but I have pulled up some data here

showing what Nvidia insiders have been

up to for the past year so these are

people within the company and as you can

see over the past 3 months the

percentage of Insider transactions at

the company that's been driving the S&P

500 up show us that Insider sales have

risen to 92% of transactions compared to

only 75% of transactions being sales

over the past 12 months so what this

says in a nutshell is that Nvidia

insiders are selling their stocks and

when we look at how that breaks down

into actual shares traded you can see

that

96% of shares that were either bought or

sold by Nvidia insiders are shares that

are being sold versus 74% over the last

12 months and this data shows us that

insiders are starting to cash out and

sadly as I've said in past videos it

will leave a lot of Regular Joe retail

invest s who are being urged on by the

media to enter the market at all-time

highs well it will leave them holding

the bag when the market comes crashing

down so the question is what can you do

about it what how can you prepare

yourself for a situation where the

economy slows down even more than it

already has slowed down and I say that

as we look at the development of the

unemployment rate in four key countries

which you can see are all at 12-month

highs and on a growth trajectory because

and I want you all to remember this this

is an important point the economy is not

the stock market the downturn starts

here in the labor market and then it

gradually trickles into the stock market

as consumers stop consuming they stop

paying their debts and struggle to make

ends meet which we are already seeing

many signs of that happening right now

so again I ask you what is it that you

can do today to prepare yourself moving

forward well back in 2021 I did a video

in fact it was one of my first videos

and in it I talked about how much gold

and silver I think people should aim to

have as a first level stacking Target

because it's one thing to know that you

need to have some gold and silver around

but it's another thing to know how much

you need and actively work towards

achieving the Target and as you can see

in the image here what I said back in

20121 was that I think a good minimum

stacking Target is to get yourself five

ounces of gold and 200 ounces of silver

and let me add that at the time premiums

on Sovereign coins for silver silver

Sovereign coins were out of control and

I was saying at the time that I'd Focus

75% of that silver stack on bars because

they were much cheaper than coins at the

time now if you watch that video you'll

remember this data from the US Bureau of

Labor Statistics that showed the average

monthly expenses for an American and

what I said was was that having that 5

oz of gold and 200 o of silver covered a

little more than 3 months of those

expenses and that I thought that was a

reasonable coverage period to aim for as

a first level stacking Target and here

is the US dollar calculation I showed in

that video where 5 ounces of gold and

200 ounces of silver were worth

$4,300 at spot now since 2021 there has

been a lot of inflation and the US

dollar prices of gold and silver have

gone up since that time meaning what was

$14,300 in metals is now

$17,600 and the question is how does

that stack up to what the Bureau of

Labor Statistics says the average

expenses for an American are today well

here are the latest figures from the BLS

showing that the average monthly cost of

what I categorized as essential expenses

back in 2021 and I did this I did this

calculation this way to make sure that

we were doing an Apples to Apples

comparison versus the 2021 video those

expenses for an American have risen by

about 20% where the total value of the

metals at spot price have gone up by 23%

and that means that my stacking goal of

5 ounces of gold and 200 o of silver

still makes sense in 20124 in fact when

you round the coverage time numbers that

amount of gold and silver covered 3.3

months of expenses in 2021 and still

covers 3.3 months of expenses in 2024

and that shows us just how good precious

metals are at sniffing out inflation and

protecting purchasing power now just

before I get into this video's viewer

question I know that some of you may be

thinking you don't need this much gold

and silver to cover essential expenses

where you live or you might be asking

yourselves how does that break down for

a family of four well I just want to

remind you all that I have a tool that

breaks that down according to your

preferred gold and silver split for a

single person or family of four it

breaks it down for your country for the

ones that I've shown here on the screen

and it also breaks it down on those

parameters per US state for all 50

states and that tool is on my patreon so

if you like my content and want to

support me there and get access to tools

like this the link to join is in the

description and pinned comment and I

also want to say just before I get to

this video's viewer question that by

pure coincidence my very good friend to

is one who has a great YouTube channel I

know that many of you watch it also did

a similar breakdown as it applies to

Gold only so if you're interested in

this topic please check out his video

it's from just a couple days ago to get

his take on this topic I think it's

worth your time and now moving on to

this video's viewer question and it

comes from a viewer named Walter hat

hello Walter thanks for submitting your

question and he asks what are the

upsides and downsides to putting money

in GLD and SLV and for those of you who

don't know what GLD and SLV are these

are two of the large gold and silver

ETFs and I thought this question tied in

very well with this video since I was

just talking about outflows from these

ETFs a moment ago and I wanted to use

this as a moment to share my point of

view on these ETFs and how I would

approach them and I'll start from the

upside or the pro as I have called it

here on the screen and I'd say the pro

is more for short-term Traders when it

comes to these ETFs who want to get

quick In-N-Out exposure to Precious

Metals prices and are comfortable with

having their trades settled in US

dollars if you're someone looking for

short-term capital gains being in these

ETFs is probably the best option for you

as the premiums on physical medals can

eat into short-term profits on the

conside though so the biggest downside I

see to these ETFs is that if you're a

long-term Metals bull who is stacking to

protect yourself against the clearly

corrupt and failing Fiat money system

which that's the category that I find

myself in owning SLV or GLD only gives

you a paper claim to the US dollar value

of the metal if there is some Divergence

between what the market truly values

medals at and what the US dollar value

they'll give you is then you're out of

luck and if there is hyperinflation and

the dollar becomes worthless meaning you

can't trade dollars for anything they

can settle your account their debt to

you in those worthless dollars and keep

the medals for themselves which means

these ETFs don't truly protect you in

the case of a total collapse of the

financial system now I'm sure there are

a lot of people furiously typing in the

comments section right now if you don't

hold it you don't own it it's become a

bit of a call to action by some of the

other YouTube channels out there who are

either trying to usually scare you for

clicks or they're trying to sell you

something and although I believe in

holding the physical if you're a Trader

and see a large price pump potentially

incoming for gold or silver and you just

want to make some Fiat profits on that

prediction on that gut feeling maybe

it's a gut feeling you're acting on I

don't see any harm in doing that

ultimately I started this channel

because I wanted people to improve the

quality of their lives and I have

improved the quality of my own life

using Financial Vehicles other than gold

and silver like stocks like real estate

and yes even Bitcoin I know many of you

hate Bitcoin out there I'm not telling

you to buy it I'm just sharing you with

you all my personal experience and

basically what I've done is I've used a

good portion of the profits that I've

made from those other Investments and in

the case of real estate cash flow coming

from the passive income from my real

estate to buy physical gold and silver

because listen I am a skeptic when it

comes to the financial system and I

prepare myself accordingly while trying

to maximize the level of that

preparation by using my knowledge of how

the current Financial system functions

to benefit from it rather than just

ignoring it with that said that's it for

this video I want to thank you all for

watching please remember to hit the like

if you liked this video remember to

leave me a comment and share this video

with other people people if you think

they need to hear this message this is

one of the fastest growing precious

metals channels on YouTube right now

thanks to you thanks for you sharing my

videos thanks for all of you liking my

videos and commenting on them I want to

thank you very much for supporting me

here as I get ready to go full-time on

YouTube in July of this year yes it's

right around the corner and I'm moving

right now my house is basically empty

right now so just as a a little update

as to what's happening in my life right

now and until the next time we see each

other everybody take care of yourselves

and take care of each other goodbye