Yen Outlook as Japan Gets Ready to Welcome New Currency Chief
Summary
TLDRこのビデオスクリプトでは、日本円の動向とそれに関連する経済政策が議論されています。新しい通貨担当者であるAtsushi Uemuraの登場が話題に上がり、彼のメディアとのコミュニケーション能力が注目されています。また、日本銀行(BOJ)の利上げ方針が、東京CPIの上昇や企業の景気感に影響を与えています。政府は、経済全体の状況を考慮し、適切な時点での介入を待っています。日本企業の業績予想やキャッシュフローの動向も、今後の円の価値に大きな影響を与える可能性があります。
Takeaways
- 🔄 新任通货管理局局长是上村敦志,他在这个动荡时期上任,但预计政策将保持连续性。
- 📜 财务省官员的发言总是经过精心准备,无论是日常监控还是紧急情况,传达的紧迫性保持一致。
- 🌟 尽管所有副财务大臣都是杰出人才,具有出色的英语能力和对世界金融市场的了解,但康登拥有与众不同的个人魅力。
- 🗣️ 康登的沟通方式和影响力让人联想到过去的A.K. 坂木原,他的发言时机和方式总是恰到好处。
- 💬 尽管康登具有魅力,但过去几个月日元的汇率并未因此而有显著变化。
- 📈 日本央行(BOJ)对日元的贬值持有一定程度的容忍,这可能导致输入成本上升,但对出口商有利。
- 💰 东京CPI的数据显示,通胀正在朝着BOJ预期的方向发展,这可能为7月的加息铺平道路。
- 🇯🇵 日本政府尚未干预汇率,部分原因是日元贬值的速度,以及他们不想与美联储的利率政策相抗衡。
- 📊 尽管日元贬值,但日本投资者可能会在季度末进行资金回流,这可能对日元产生一定的支撑作用。
- 📉 日本的出口商虽然从日元贬值中受益,但过度的贬值可能会影响他们的利润,甚至影响国内业务。
- 📈 日本央行密切关注通胀预期,如果保持在2%左右,可能会成为7月加息的另一个理由。
- 📈 即将发布的日本企业景气调查(Tankan)预计将显示企业信心保持稳定,这对BOJ来说是一个积极的信号。
Q & A
新しい通貨首長のAtsushi Uemuraについて、どのような人物であるか説明してください。
-Atsushi Uemuraは、非常に重要な時期に通貨首長のポジションに就任しましたが、これは通常のローテーションの一部であり、彼の登場は政策の連続性をもたらすでしょう。
通貨市場の干渉について、なぜ日本政府はまだ介入していないのか説明してください。
-政府は、為替の変動のペースを密かに監視しており、Fedと戦うことはできないため、干渉のタイミングを見極めています。また、市場の状況によって干渉のタイミングを見極めています。
BOJの立場に関連して、なぜ彼らは円の弱さに関心を持たないのですか?
-BOJは、円の弱さが輸入価格に影響を与えることに関心を持っていませんが、円の弱さが高すぎると、インフレーションのオーバーシュートを引き起こす可能性があるため、彼らはそのレベルに注意を払っています。
日本の経済にどのような影響が及ぶと予想されていますか?
-円の弱さは、輸入価格の上昇につながり、東京CPIの上昇を示しており、BOJは7月にさらに利上げを検討する可能性があります。
通貨市場の動向に関連して、なぜ市場が緊張しているのですか?
-市場は、政府の干渉やBOJの政策決定など、経済の動きに敏感であり、特に政府の干渉が期待されている状況下では、市場は緊張しています。
Atsushi Uemuraの登場が、通貨市場にどのような影響を与える可能性があるか教えてください。
-Uemuraさんの登場は、政策の連続性と安定感をもたらす一方で、彼のコミュニケーション能力とカリスマ性は市場に新しい動向をもたらす可能性があります。
BOJが7月に利上げを検討する理由は何ですか?
-BOJは、インフレーションの動向と企業のキャピタル支出の見通しを考慮し、経済の良性循環を促すために利上げを検討しています。
日本の企業の業績予想に関連して、どのようなシグナルを見ていますか?
-企業の業績予想は、製造業とサービス業の業績が安定していることを示しており、これはBOJにとって利上げを実行するのに十分な根拠です。
日本の経済に対する投資家の姿勢はどのように変化していますか?
-投資家は、円の弱さに対する利益を認識していますが、その弱さが利益のしきい値を超えていることにも気づき始めています。
日本の企業のインフレ予測は、どのようにBOJの決断に影響を与える可能性がありますか?
-企業のインフレ予測が2%を維持している場合、BOJは7月の利上げをさらに検討し、経済の良性循環を促進するでしょう。
日本の経済に対する最近の見通しはどのようなものですか?
-日本の経済は、BOJの政策決定や政府の干渉など、さまざまな要因に左右されますが、企業のキャピタル支出の見通しが良好であり、経済は安定した成長を続ける可能性があります。
Outlines
💼 新しい通貨担当長官の登場
ブライアンが語る新しい通貨担当長官である上村敦について。彼の役職交代が通常のローテーションの一環であり、財務省のスクリプトは常に緻密に準備されていると述べています。過去の副財務大臣たちの優れた英語力と金融市場の知識にも言及し、特にカリスマ性が重要であることを強調。さらに、カンドン氏のカリスマ性が際立っていたこと、そして上村氏がメディアとのコミュニケーションでどのような影響を与えるかが注目されます。
📈 日銀のスタンスと円安の影響
タロウが円安と日本経済に与える影響について説明。日銀は円安の水準には関心を示さず、インフレが日銀の目標に向かっていることが示唆されていると述べます。円安の継続がインフレの上振れを引き起こし、日銀のさらなる利上げの可能性を開くことが示唆されています。
🔍 政府の介入が見られない理由
ブライアンが円安に対する政府の介入が見られない理由について説明。動きのペースや、米国の金利上昇がドル高を引き起こしていることが主な要因であると述べています。日本政府が効果的に介入するためのタイミングを見極めているとしています。
🔮 新しい四半期への展望
タロウが新しい四半期に向けた円の見通しについて説明。最近の円安が投機的な圧力によるものであり、資本利益を狙ったキャリートレードが主要な要因であると述べています。円のリパトリ減少が円安に対する一時的なサポートになる可能性があるとも述べています。
📊 日本銀行短観と企業信頼感
ブライアンが日本銀行短観と企業の信頼感についての見通しを述べています。サービスセクターの強さと製造業の安定を期待しており、資本支出の増加も予想されています。これにより、日銀が経済の好循環を追求する上でのプラス要因となることが示唆されています。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Atsushi Uemura
💡通貨市場
💡干渉
💡円安
💡BOJ(銀行業中央金庫)
💡インフレ
💡利回り
💡キャリートレード
💡経済センサス(Japan Tankan)
💡資本収益
💡企業の業績
Highlights
Brian discusses the significance of Atsushi Uemura's appointment as the new currency chief.
The change in position is part of normal rotations but is happening during a dramatic time.
Continuity in MOF officials' meticulously prepared scripts is emphasized.
Media communication skills and charisma of vice finance ministers are noted as important.
Comparison of Uemura's charisma to that of A.K. Sakakibara, known as 'Mr. Yen'.
Despite charisma, recent months have seen challenges in yen intervention effectiveness.
Taro discusses the BOJ's stance on yen weakness and its impact on inflation.
Tokyo CPI readings suggest inflation is moving in the BOJ's desired direction.
Potential for a BOJ rate hike in July based on recent inflation data.
Gradual decline in yen value and macroeconomic environment as reasons for lack of government intervention.
US interest rates as a main factor driving the dollar up against the yen.
Speculative pressure and carry trade's impact on yen weakness.
Japanese investors' repatriation could provide some support for the yen.
Weak yen affecting Japanese exporters and importers, despite initial benefits.
Inflation expectations and corporate pricing behavior as key indicators for BOJ's policy decisions.
Anticipation of the Japan Tankan business sentiment survey results.
Services sector sentiment expected to remain high, supporting BOJ's potential rate hike.
CapEx figures projected to be revised up, signaling positive economic outlook.
Transcripts
Let me start with you, Brian, because, of course, the latest that we've heard
is as we continue to watch for any intervention coming from authorities
that we might potentially see that we have already seen a new currency chief,
and that would be Atsushi Uemura. Tell us a little bit about him.
Well, let me just say. Okay, first of all, Cherie, I mean, this
is obviously a very dramatic time to be making a change at that position, but
it's part of normal rotations. And the one thing you can bet on is we
will see continuity. The scripts that that the MOF officials
deliver are always meticulously prepared.
And you'll notice on days when we have Suzuki and kind of speaking on the same
day, they always convey the exact same amount of urgency, whether it's
something simple, like we are watching currency markets regularly or more
dramatic, more urgent, we are ready to take steps as necessary so that won't
change. The one thing that does change is there
is communication involved with the media and having seen dozens of vice finance
ministers come and go in my time. I mean, I can say they're all the cream
of the crop. They're all fantastic.
They're all they've got great English. They know everything about the world and
the financial markets. But charisma is a thing, and Condon had
a degree of charisma that reminds me of something we haven't really seen since
the days of A.K. Sakakibara.
I mean, a real Mr. Yen and a power over.
You know, the timing is always exquisite, the way they deliver their
their communications. So that's something to watch.
We'll have to see just what Mr. Neumeier, it looks like when he starts
really talking with the press on a regular basis.
I got to say that despite the charisma, I mean, that hasn't really necessarily
worked in the last few months. We saw what happened last week as well.
He was talking about intervening for 24 hours and then the yen just didn't
budge. But Taro, that's led to some different
dynamics across the Japanese economy, including prices now continuing to rise.
Right. Absolutely.
So BOJ's stance was they they don't care about the levels of the input like chip,
like the yen. This kept in that weakness so high that
like, you know, that would be something that will be something that the bulls
can't ignore. And I think the weaker yen is may make
their cards up about inflation overshooting and obviously the Tokyo CPI
Friday suggests that inflation is going in the BOJ direction.
So I think those readings are kind of opening the gates for the BOJ a for it's
another hike in July in my reading here. So why hasn't the government intervened
so far, Brian? Because we have seen, of course, as Taro
says, very weak levels. Is it the gradual decline that's really
keeping authorities at bay? Yeah, I mean, part of it's the pace of
the move. So that's definitely something they were
watching closely. And and it's also I mean, they're
looking at, you know, everything the macro environment and they can't fight
the Fed. The main the main factor that's pushing
the dollar up and it's up not just against the yen, but up against all the
other currencies as well is that interest rates.
So Japan has the kind of time. Time it's time to move and really, you
know, make the most of its efforts, efforts.
It doesn't want to intervene at a time when it's just going to be pushing
against a string, so to speak. So we're still on standby any time.
And we're watching closely. And I think it's just a matter of seeing
how the market is positioned on any day. Tara, what's your outlook for the yen as
we head into a new quarter? Because part of the moves and that
weakness is seen in the Japanese yen have also been attributed to funding
needs for the dollar, the quarter end rebalancing of portfolios, especially
given the US PC rating on Friday. Do you see that pressure being eased a
little bit in the coming couple of weeks?
It's really hard to say because the recent week weekend is mostly about the
speculative pressure. People say carry trade is about
fundamentals, but to my eyes the carry trade is also mostly speculative because
they try to retain not only the rate differentials, but also it actually
targets the capital gains. So therefore, as long as those capital
speculative pressure goes on the dollar and could blow it anyway.
That said, the I think the Japanese investors are saying the time for
repatriation, that will not be a strong game changer but somehow support a
supportive factor for the and I think that's how we have the Japan Tankan
business sentiment survey coming out within the hour.
It's been interesting talking to these CEOs because even exporters who benefit
from a weaker yen are feeling a bit more cautious when it comes to this much
weakness. Right.
Absolutely. Obviously, like even the importers, even
the exporters procure buy imports because like
Japan is lack of resources generally. So that's why I think that message is
kind of the weakness of the yen probably went over that that sort of a threshold
for that for the profit and also obviously for, let's say, for the
carmakers, you know, if the consumer confidence is declining, that makes
worse for their domestic businesses as well.
So that's why I think there are alerts into the weekend for for the tank.
I think the inflation related causes are must watch whether the particularly the
service providers are still willing to raise prices and also the corporates
inflation expectations are the most. One of the most important goals is for
the BOJ to watch the inflation expectations.
If it's kept around 2%, it's like another goal for a boj's hike in July.
Brian, what are your expectations as well for that survey and the type of
confidence we're expecting to see from businesses?
Well, I mean, we're prepared for for all possibilities, but we expect to see the
Tom Keene sentiment broadly holding steady across all sectors.
You'll remember that the services sector and we were at a at the highest in
decades before, So we'll be watching that closely to see if that is
maintained. We expect manufacturers to kind of come
in about where they were, which is, as Tara said, I mean, it's broadly should
be supportive for the BOJ to certainly consider and possibly execute a rate
hike at the end of this month. We'll also be looking at CapEx.
We expect CapEx figures for this next fiscal year to be revised up into the
double digits somewhere around the 13 12% range.
That'll be a big sign of a positive sign for the BOJ in terms of the virtuous
economic cycle that it's been pursuing.
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