NVDA Stock - Bigger Move Incoming?

Summary

In this Nvidia daily update, the presenter analyzes the stock’s recent dip to the $174 support range, highlighting critical levels for both bulls and bears. Bulls aim to hold support and break the trendline to retest $181 and potentially reach all-time highs, while bears target a drop below $174, with $169–170 and $150 as downside objectives. Broader market conditions are noted as extended and potentially volatile, with a rising VIX and seasonal weakness in late September. Options flow shows slight bullish sentiment, but nothing overwhelming. Overall, the focus is on key technical levels and market structure to guide short-term trading decisions.

Takeaways

• 📉 NVIDIA is down 1.64%, currently trading around the key support level of $174.
• 🟢 Bulls aim to hold $174 and break above $181 to trigger potential upward momentum toward $190–$200.
• 🔴 Bears want to see lower lows and lower highs, especially a break below $174 and $169–$170, which could target $150.
• 📊 EMAs are crucial: bullish when aligned upward, bearish crosses indicate potential downside.
• ⚡ A wick below $174 but closing above it is considered a bullish signal.
• 📈 Resistance levels include $181 and previous all-time highs; breaking these levels is key for bulls.
• 🌐 Broader market (QQQ, SPY) is slightly overextended from the 9 EMA, signaling possible pullbacks.
• 🔥 VIX is at 16, indicating potential market turbulence; unusual that both VIX and the market are rising simultaneously.
• 🗓 Second half of September historically weaker for markets, with potential rate cuts and triple witching adding volatility.
• 💹 NVIDIA options flow is mildly bullish: $17M bullish vs $5M bearish, with potential strangle positions noted.
• ⚖️ Short-term focus: monitor $174 support and $181 resistance; long-term outlook depends on key level breakouts or breakdowns.
• 🔍 Technical structure remains important: lower lows/lower highs vs higher highs/higher lows will guide next directional bias.

Q & A

What was Nvidia's stock performance in the video update?

Nvidia was down 1.64%, trading in the $174 range, which is identified as an important support level.

Why is the $174 range significant for Nvidia according to the video?

The $174 range is significant because bulls want to hold it to maintain potential upward momentum and counter the bearish trend of lower lows and lower highs.

What is the bullish scenario for Nvidia discussed in the video?

The bullish scenario involves holding the $174 support, breaking above the current resistance trend line, potentially retesting $181, and challenging previous all-time highs to reach the $190s or even $200.

What would indicate weakness for Nvidia in the short term?

Closing daily candles well below $174 would signal weakness, indicating that bullish momentum is not following through.

What is the bearish thesis for Nvidia?

The bearish thesis is based on the structure of lower lows and lower highs. Bears aim to push the stock below $174 and potentially below $169-$170, which could lead to further declines toward the $150 range.

How do exponential moving averages (EMAs) factor into the analysis?

EMAs help determine bullish or bearish bias. If EMAs are bearishly crossed, it favors bearish trades; if they remain bullish, the focus is on bullish opportunities.

What does the video say about the broader market conditions?

The broader market is slightly extended from the 9 EMA, with some caution advised. SPY and QQQ have shown signs of being overextended and could see pullbacks, especially around key support levels.

What are some technical signals mentioned for potential market pullbacks?

Bearish piercing candles and overextension from the 9 EMA are highlighted as signals that could indicate short-term market pullbacks.

How is the VIX being interpreted in the video?

The VIX is spiking while the market continues upward, which is unusual because typically a rising VIX correlates with a market decline. This contradiction suggests potential upcoming volatility.

What were the options flows for Nvidia on this day?

There was a $17 million bullish flow versus $5 million bearish flow. Notably, there were both $1.4 million calls at the 150 strike and $1.4 million puts at the 177.5 strike, suggesting a potential strangle strategy.

What is the overall takeaway regarding Nvidia's short-term outlook?

The short-term outlook is mixed but cautiously bullish if key support levels hold. Bulls are looking to break above resistance and retest highs, while bears are waiting for a break below support to drive the stock lower.

Does the video provide any advice about trading behavior?

Yes, the speaker advises caution, particularly given potential market turbulence, emphasizing not to take overly risky trades ('yolo plays') and noting that this is not financial advice.