Brexit Talks Stalled With Canada

Summary

The video discusses the stalled UK-Canada trade negotiations, analyzing how desperate trade deals made early in Brexit undermined the UK's negotiating position. The host argues the Brexit promise of better trade deals outside the EU has failed, as leaving the single market made the UK a smaller, weaker negotiator. Pausing talks with Canada highlights this reality - initially desperate for deals, the UK is now unable to strike new agreements.

Takeaways

• 😟 The talks on trade deal with Canada have stalled over disagreements on agriculture
• 😔 The UK's leverage in trade deals has reduced after Brexit as its market size is now smaller
• 🤨 Brexiteers had claimed Brexit would allow quicker trade deals but that hasn't happened
• 😠 The UK desperation for deals meant early ones favoured partners over UK interests
• 😣 Other countries are now demanding concessions similar to those given to Australia
• 😒 Giving too much away in early deals has made later talks much more difficult
• 😞 Expected economic benefits from new trade deals have failed to materialize
• 🤔 Rejoining the Customs Union could resolve some trade issues but has political barriers
• 😩 Overall Brexit has damaged UK trade rather than improving it as claimed
• 😡 Correcting the damage will require honestly confronting the failures of Brexit promises

Q & A

What was one of the main arguments made by Brexiteers for leaving the EU customs union?

Brexiteers argued that being in the customs union made it harder to strike trade deals because there were too many countries to satisfy. They claimed the UK could be more nimble on its own and strike deals more quickly with just two countries involved.

Why did the UK's trade talks with Canada stall?

The talks stalled because the UK refused to accept hormone-injected beef from Canada, and Canada wanted to apply high tariffs to UK cheese exports. The negotiations seemed to be going nowhere.

How did the UK's trade deal with Australia impact negotiations with other countries?

The UK was seen as caving in too much to Australia's demands just to get a deal, signaling to other countries like Canada that the UK was desperate for deals and would make major concessions.

What two factors did the author predict would hurt the UK in trade negotiations after Brexit?

1) The UK would become a smaller market compared to the EU, meaning it would have to concede more in talks. 2) Other countries would know the UK was desperate for deals to prove Brexit was worthwhile.

Why did experts say trade deals can take up to 10 years to negotiate?

Experts say it takes time for both sides to slowly negotiate better access to each other's markets while limiting how much they open of their own. This process ensures the best deal.

How have the UK's post-Brexit trade deals compared to what was promised?

The deals have either given too much away just for quick headlines, or talks have stalled when the UK tries to negotiate properly. The end result is worse trading terms.

What does the official government analysis say about the economic impacts of these new trade deals?

The analysis shows the deals provide almost no economic benefit to the UK. There is no predicted improvement in trade in 5, 10 or even 20 years.

What options does the UK have now regarding trade deal negotiations?

The UK can either return to quickly conceding to demands for deals and headlines, or stick to its principles but face years of slow, difficult negotiations not producing results any time soon.

What does the author think is the best path forward for UK trade policy?

The author believes trade deals should take place quietly in the background over years, concluded only when mutually beneficial, regardless of what government starts or finishes them.

What has the stall in UK-Canada trade talks demonstrated about Brexit?

It has further demonstrated Brexit is not allowing the UK to negotiate decent, improved trade deals as promised. The benefits claimed by Brexiteers have failed to materialize.

Outlines

00:00

😀 Intro: Brexit trade deal issues arise

The first paragraph is an introduction where the narrator greets the audience and previews discussing recent issues surrounding Brexit trade negotiations, specifically the pausing of talks with Canada which highlights difficulties of leaving the EU customs union.

05:01

😕 Leaving customs union causes trade deal challenges

The second paragraph explains how leaving the EU customs union has made it very difficult to strike new beneficial trade deals, since the UK is now a much smaller market with less leverage. Promises of great new deals have not materialized.

10:01

😟 Current trade deals achieve no real benefits

The third paragraph points out that despite loud claims in the media about new trade deals, there is no evidence of actual improvements or economic benefits for the UK. The deals achieve nothing substantial while much has been lost due to Brexit.

Keywords

💡Brexit

Brexit refers to the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union, a historic and contentious decision that has led to a wide range of economic, political, and social ramifications. In the context of the video, Brexit is discussed in terms of its impact on trade negotiations and deals, particularly how the promises and expectations of Brexit proponents have faced challenges in reality, such as difficulties in negotiating favorable trade deals with countries like Canada, Australia, and the United States. The video critiques the optimistic assertions made by Brexit supporters regarding the UK's ability to secure advantageous trade agreements post-Brexit.

💡Customs Union

The Customs Union is an agreement among countries to allow goods to pass across borders without tariffs and adopt a unified external tariff on imports from non-member countries. The video discusses the UK's decision to leave the EU Customs Union as a significant factor in Brexit, arguing that this move was based on misconceptions about immigration and trade flexibility. It highlights the complications and disadvantages this decision has brought to UK trade negotiations, undermining the ease and cost-effectiveness of trade with major markets.

💡Trade deals

Trade deals are agreements between two or more countries to set the rules for trade between them, covering tariffs, import quotas, and other trade restrictions. The video emphasizes the UK's struggle to negotiate trade deals that are as good as or better than those it had as part of the EU, pointing out that many post-Brexit trade deals have turned out to be less favorable, challenging the Brexit narrative that leaving the EU would lead to superior trade agreements.

💡Freedom of movement

Freedom of movement is a principle of the European Union that allows citizens of EU countries to live, work, and travel in other EU countries without special permits. The video notes that Brexit supporters often linked the desire to leave the EU with controlling immigration, despite freedom of movement not directly correlating with the types of immigration issues Brexit proponents complained about. It suggests that this was a misleading argument used to support Brexit.

💡Trade negotiations

Trade negotiations refer to the discussions and bargaining processes countries engage in to establish trade deals. The video discusses the UK's trade negotiations post-Brexit, particularly highlighting the challenges and setbacks faced in talks with countries like Canada. It critiques the UK's negotiating strategy, suggesting that early concessions in negotiations with other countries, like Australia, have weakened the UK's bargaining position in subsequent negotiations.

💡Economic impact

Economic impact refers to the effect of policies, decisions, or events on the economy. The video critically examines the economic impact of Brexit, particularly in terms of trade deals, arguing that the UK has not seen the promised benefits of Brexit in its trade relations and that the economic analyses have shown little to no significant gain from the new trade agreements compared to the losses incurred from leaving the EU.

💡Immigration

Immigration is the movement of people into a country to live or work. In the context of the video, immigration is discussed in relation to Brexit, where controlling immigration was a major argument for leaving the EU. The video suggests that this argument was based on a misunderstanding or misrepresentation of the relationship between freedom of movement within the EU and immigration concerns raised by Brexit supporters.

💡Single Market

The Single Market is an EU initiative that allows for the free movement of goods, services, capital, and labor within the EU. The video addresses the UK's departure from the Single Market as part of Brexit, arguing that this has complicated trade and economic relations with EU countries and beyond. It suggests that leaving the Single Market was a decision based on ideological grounds rather than practical economic benefits.

💡Tariffs

Tariffs are taxes imposed on imported goods to protect domestic industries or to generate revenue. The video discusses how post-Brexit trade negotiations, like those with Canada, have involved contentious issues surrounding tariffs, particularly on agricultural products like beef and cheese, highlighting the challenges the UK faces in maintaining favorable trade terms without the bargaining power of the EU.

💡Trade agreement benefits

Trade agreement benefits refer to the economic or strategic advantages that countries seek to achieve through trade deals. The video critically evaluates the claimed benefits of post-Brexit trade agreements, arguing that the UK has failed to secure deals that significantly benefit its economy or trade position, contrary to the promises made by Brexit proponents.

Highlights

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Transcripts

hi marville I like talking about

politics and as we draw to the end of a

week when the wheels have fallen off the

brexit wagon again like to discuss the

reasons and realities surrounding the

pausing trade negotiations with Canada

the latest case of brexit hitting

reality and getting a headache but first

if you'd like to be notified of daily

news and politics please subscribe to

the channel so there was a bit of a

blizzard of major brexit stories last

week and in between the Tory psycho

dramas still working through them but

the collapse of trade talks with Canada

is a particularly interesting one

because it goes right to the heart of

the main reason for particularly leaving

the Customs Union leaving the single

Market was largely argued on the basis

of getting voters to believe freedom of

movement was linked to the forms of

immigration that brexiteers complained

about in reality of course it wasn't as

has been shown since but the Customs

Union why would people object to the

Customs Union when it just makes trade

easier and cheaper with our Major Market

without it having anything whatsoever to

do with immigration

trade deals inside a customs Union

really tricky to embark on the wonderful

trade deals that brex promised us the

fact that these trade deals have now all

turned out to be at best as good as the

ones we had with the EU and in many

cases now significantly worse seems to

be neither here nor there and in fact

after this week some brexiteers are

trying to argue that brexit was never

about trade deals and every time

brexiteers say oh no it wasn't about

this thing at all because they know

they've lost that argument but it was we

can find out it was we've still got

their literature and and then he thinks

yourself but in that case okay so then

presumably you've got no objection to

rejoin the Customs Union then in reality

there are objections but never mind that

for now we're not in a position to

rejoin the EU as a whole or single

Market individually we could negotiate a

customs Union with the EU in a much more

reasonable time scale unfortunately the

media never asked the brexiters why we

shouldn't now so I can't pass on their

response to that but there are responses

which I'll cover in another video next

week but what happened this week to

shine a spotlight on it all well first

business secretary KY bad knck broached

the subject of why we don't have a US

trade deal as promised it was promised

we're going to have a US trade deal oh

it's all America's fault she said Biden

doesn't want one you know so I can't

deliver it so I guess we didn't hold all

the cards then after all then later on

talks with Canada were paused we're

refusing to accept hormone injected beef

good which Canada wants to export to us

and they're wanting to apply eye

watering tariffs to our cheese exports

to them oh we're not so keen on that the

talks were seemingly going nowhere so

now they've been stopped for a while

this is not uncommon this happens with

trade talks um David henck has suggested

that Canada have been pursuing a very

tough line in the negotiations something

that might be partly explained by the

fact that we caved completely to

Australia thus letting everyone else

know that we were desperate

interestingly I've made the same points

myself at the time without being

anything close to a trade expert it's

almost like it was obvious if you

completely cave into the demands of a

country with an economy the size of

Australia which is not tiny but it's not

G7 level then obviously countries with

an even greater economy are going to set

a high bar for agreement themselves in

fact before we even left the EU I used

to regularly point out two realities

that were always going to bite us on the

ass when it came to trade deals first so

the way trade talks work is each side

wants to gain enhanced access to the

other's Market without opening up their

own Market too much they know they're

going to have to do it a bit but you

know they don't want to over eg it well

a larger market can open up its own

Market a tiny little bit in a way that's

worth a lot to that smaller market so a

larger market has an upper hand in trade

talks because they don't have to concede

as much to get agreement but by leaving

the EU we became a much smaller market

for trade talks meaning that we would

always have to give up more protections

for our own businesses than we did in

the EU to strike a deal second

absolutely everyone negotiating us would

know that we were desperate to do a deal

in order to sell the benefits of brexit

to an expectant public what Boris

Johnson was never going to get away with

was right we can embark on all these new

great trade deals now and people go so

when could we expect to see them prime

minister out about 10 years time no no

no that couldn't happen and so it turned

out to be never mind Australia New

Zealand walked away with a trade deal

very much in their favor we were

basically getting the sort of deals

which tiny markets would have to accept

not one of the largest in the world but

the reality of brexit threw a third

third factor in as well once you

actually concede unwisely generous terms

to one country all the other countries

want the same what hen's pointing out is

because because Johnson and Truss caved

into Australia on so much just to get

their positive headlines it gave the

green light for everyone else to demand

more had we approached each trade deal

on its own merits had we observed

sensible red lines and stuck by them as

fiercely as the brex stood by their EU

red lines then we could have been in a

much stronger position and this was all

caused because trade experts would say

that trade negotiations can take up to a

decade to conclude with major markets

and Johnson had to prove them wrong by

completing them in a matter of months

but of course anyone can conclude a

trade talk in a matter of months if you

give the other side everything they ask

for the years of talks are supposed to

be each side moving very slowly towards

each other until they get agreement to

make sure that you don't give away more

than you need to to get the best deal

for yourself but to show also that

you're a tough cookie for the next

Market you negotiate with what we did

was basically tell Canada and everyone

else but Canada is a G7 country we were

willing to be bent over and spanked by

New Zealand so of course we would give

our North American cousins whatever they

asked for only things have changed a bit

back when when Johnson was in charge

there is no doubt in my mind Canada

would have secured the terms it wanted

but the bitter taste of our first trade

deals is having an effect now even some

conservative MPS are openly criticizing

the weakness of these deals and British

farmers are not best pleased either and

you know the Tories need agricultural

areas the current Tory leadership does

not seem to see as much value in a nice

headline in the Daily Express when it

comes at such a cost so now they're

finding they can't strike deals at all

because we always had two choices when

it came to brexit trade deals either

agree to everything the other side

wanted and get a quick one or stick to

our guns and be forced to negotiate them

slowly properly over many years and not

be able to post any positive headlines

to the news Because by the time we'd

secured that deal whoever was in charge

at the start of the negotiations would

be long gone by then because these deals

take place over much more than the span

of a single Parliament frankly although

this latest episode is embarrassing and

should be embarrassing for brex Te it's

no bad thing for the country because

mutually beneficial trade deals do take

so many years and can easily start on

under one government and conclude under

another so we can do with the media

Spotlight not being not not on it

because we don't want it to become party

political they should really be taking

place in the background too boring to

report on except when we get to the

business end of talks and those talks

should never be concluded unless the

deal is a net benefit to both our

businesses and consumers and no a

hypothetical

0.05% boost to GDP in 20 years is not a

net benefit basically the brexit

experiment has failed on so many levels

and certainly when it comes to trade

deals now don't get me wrong brexiteers

did make an argument which was not

utterly ridiculous when it came to

negotiations you know an awful lot of

the things that were promised with

brexit were childishly stupid were never

going to happen but there were a couple

of arguments brexiters genuinely had so

with one of them it was went like this

remainers argued that the larger single

Market would always be able to get

better trade deals because of its huge

Consumer Power brexiteers argued that

the problem with the single Market trade

deals is there was too much compromise

because they had to satisfy over two

dozen countries every single member

State got a a vote on whether they

approved it or not a single country

could sink a trade deal as has happened

whereas the UK on its own can be nimbler

arrange quicker deals because you only

have to satisfy two countries the UK and

whichever one were negotiating

with this was a reasonable hypothesis in

theory but the facts show that they

actually just got it wrong we haven't

managed to use our new found nimbleness

to get better trade deals we initially

gave into the demands of Japan Australia

New Zealand as well as the EU and have

found ourselves with much worse trading

terms when voters were promised the same

or better so now we've tried to stick to

our guns and are finding ourselves with

no deal at all so now we're in a hall

brexit is not allowing us to negotiate

decent trade deals not everyone is

accepting that yet but the reality is

that we are not going to negotiate any

trade deals with any market around the

world that is better than the one we

would have had as an EU member that is

being demonstrated ever more clearly

with each passing year the solution

isn't easy though uh but I as I say I'm

likely to discuss that in a standalone

video in the near future over the next

week I hope until then this pausing the

trade talks with Canada it should be

another way call right consider what's

happened over the past few four years of

brexit a lot of noise in the media about

their oh great trade deal and this great

trade deal and that great trade oh look

at all these trade deals so where are

the benefits then where's the benefit to

our trade oh not actually improved trade

oh dear what does the official analysis

say is going to improve because never

mind what a minister might tell a

newspaper and the newspaper May tell

their readers where there are no

consequences for lying the official

economic impact assessment that the

government publish say that we gain

nothing of consequence from these trade

deals yet we know we lost a great deal

with our hard brexit and the more people

see this the quicker we will be able to

take action because right now we are

just hurting ourselves for no even

hypothetical benefit there isn't going

to be a benefit in five years 10 years

20 years doesn't matter how long but

there we are those are my thoughts let

me know yours in the comments below I

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