TESLA Stock - Have Bulls Lost Control?

Summary

In this Tesla stock update, the presenter offers an in-depth technical analysis, covering broader market trends, key Fibonacci retracements, and Tesla's current positioning. Despite a slight bearish signal following a loss of key support levels, there's still a potential bullish scenario if Tesla can reclaim the low 330s. Key levels like 330, 327, and 300 are crucial in determining the stock’s next move. The presenter also highlights options flow, indicating mixed sentiment but some bullish signs. The video emphasizes patience and watching how the market plays out, especially ahead of events like Jackson Hole.

Takeaways

• 😀 Tesla stock is down 1.63%, closing just shy of $324, facing volatility in the markets.
• 😀 QQQ and SPY showed potential bullish retracement, with QQQ showing support at Fibonacci levels and the 618 retracement.
• 😀 The bulls need to hold the current low levels to maintain potential bullish movement, with $575 acting as short-term resistance on the QQQ.
• 😀 Tesla's chart indicates a potential bullish retracement with support around $317 and a 50 EMA, but it's facing damage from recent trends.
• 😀 Bulls need to reclaim the low $330s (around $330-$333) for stronger confidence in a potential upward move for Tesla.
• 😀 If Tesla drops below the low $300s, it could lead to a bearish reversal, signaling a shift in market sentiment.
• 😀 Despite some damage to the chart, there is still bullish potential if Tesla holds key Fibonacci levels and reclaims certain price points.
• 😀 Technical indicators like the 21 EMA and MACD suggest a potential shift in momentum, with the market showing mixed signals.
• 😀 The weekly chart will be crucial to determine if Tesla can reclaim support above $330, with the next few days being critical for bullish continuation.
• 😀 The 1-hour chart indicates a potential bearish flag setup, with a loss of the $327 low signaling a possible bearish trend if the stock does not recover.
• 😀 Despite setbacks, options flow is not overly bearish, with some bulls stepping in, signaling potential short-term upside if Tesla can hold key levels.

Q & A

What is the general market sentiment discussed in the video?

The market sentiment is mixed. The video highlights a brutal day in the market, but a decent recovery off the lows. The speaker expresses a cautiously optimistic outlook, especially in the short term, but stresses the importance of continued monitoring of market indicators.

What is the key technical analysis level for QQQ discussed in the video?

The speaker points to 575 as a short-term resistance level for the QQQ. If this level is reclaimed, it could signal a bullish continuation. Additionally, a level around 550 is mentioned as critical for support in case the market moves lower.

What does the speaker suggest about the Fibonacci levels for QQQ?

The Fibonacci levels are used to analyze potential retracement areas. The speaker notes that the QQQ has retraced to the green Fibonacci zone and is holding above the 618 Fibonacci level, which is viewed as a good sign for potential bullish continuation.

How does the speaker assess Tesla's technical chart?

Tesla's chart shows mixed signals. While there is still potential for a bullish continuation, especially if Tesla reclaims the low 330s, there has been damage to the chart due to a recent breakdown and loss of key support levels.

What is the significance of the 330 level for Tesla?

The 330 level is a critical support and resistance point for Tesla. Reclaiming the low 330s would strengthen the bullish case for the stock, while failure to hold this level could suggest a deeper correction and a shift toward a bearish outlook.

What concern does the speaker have regarding Tesla’s chart pattern?

The speaker is concerned about a potential false breakout in Tesla's chart. Tesla recently broke out of a pennant pattern but quickly fell back inside it, which could indicate a weakening bullish momentum. The speaker remains cautious until clearer confirmation emerges.

What does the speaker say about the broader market conditions and Jackson Hole?

The speaker mentions the upcoming Jackson Hole event, which could introduce volatility into the market. The uncertainty around the event is acknowledged, and it is seen as a factor that could impact market movement, especially for stocks like QQQ and Tesla.

What technical indicators are discussed in relation to Tesla’s potential price action?

The speaker discusses the use of Fibonacci levels, trend lines, moving averages, and the MACD indicator. Specifically, the 618 Fibonacci retracement level and the exponential moving average (EMA) are mentioned as key factors in determining whether the bulls can maintain control of Tesla's price action.

What does the speaker say about the options flow for Tesla?

The options flow for Tesla is surprisingly mixed, with some bulls stepping in and buying shorter-term calls. This suggests that despite the overall bearish sentiment, there is still some optimism among investors for a potential short-term rebound.

What is the speaker's approach to trading based on the current market conditions?

The speaker remains cautious, opting to observe the market rather than make aggressive trades. They stress the importance of respecting stop-losses and waiting for stronger confirmation before re-entering positions, especially in volatile environments like the current one.