NVDA Stock - Getting Very Tight, Big Move Soon?

Summary

In this Nvidia daily update, the market analysis focuses on Nvidia's current range-bound movement, with support holding around $179–180 and resistance at $183–184. The bulls remain in control as the stock closes up 4%, but crucial resistance levels need to be breached for continued upward momentum. Technical indicators like MACD and SMI raise concerns about a potential top, but if the bulls step in tomorrow, there’s a chance of rallying into earnings with targets in the mid-to-high $190s. Options flow shows bullish dominance, though bears are starting to show interest. The key for tomorrow is breaking through resistance and holding support.

Takeaways

• 😀 The video provides a daily update on Nvidia, focusing on its stock price and technical analysis.
• 📈 The speaker shares his daily market insights with members through a subscription service, highlighting Nvidia's price movement and trends.
• 🔍 Nvidia's stock is currently trapped within a range, with the speaker emphasizing the importance of the bulls breaking the resistance at 183-184 for upward movement.
• 📉 The stock has been consolidating in the same range for several days, with a potential breakout into earnings if it maintains this pattern.
• 🔄 The speaker mentions the importance of the 9x exponential moving average (EMA) as support, suggesting that as long as this level holds, the bulls remain in control.
• 📅 The speaker expresses the need for Nvidia to close above 184 to prevent the weekly MACD from printing a lower high, which could signal a weakening bullish momentum.
• 🔒 Despite the stock being in a parabolic rally, the speaker is concerned about the consistency of the MACD, especially if it continues to print lower lows on the histogram.
• 📉 If Nvidia loses key support levels (179-180), the speaker would start to be more cautious about the bullish outlook.
• 📊 The speaker predicts a potential rally into earnings, with the stock possibly reaching the high 190s if the bulls maintain momentum and break the 184 resistance.
• 📆 The speaker stresses that tomorrow's price action will be critical, particularly due to options expiration (OPEX), which could bring volatility and impact the stock's movement.
• 📈 The options flow data suggests that while bulls are dominating, there is some mixed sentiment, as bears are trying to enter the market after the morning's bullish dominance.

Q & A

What is the main focus of the video update?

The main focus of the video update is discussing the current market performance of Nvidia, analyzing its technical chart, and predicting future movements, particularly as the stock is consolidating within a certain price range.

What is the significance of the 9x exponential moving average mentioned in the script?

The 9x exponential moving average is used as a key support level for Nvidia. The analyst mentions that as long as the stock remains above this level, they continue to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt, indicating a bullish trend.

What could signal a reversal in the bullish trend for Nvidia?

A reversal could be signaled if Nvidia starts losing its current support level (179-180 range) or if the stock breaks below its established trendline, indicating weakness in the price movement.

What does the analyst mean by 'bull flag' consolidation?

A 'bull flag' consolidation refers to a chart pattern where the stock price consolidates or moves sideways after a strong upward trend. It’s considered a continuation pattern, indicating that the stock could potentially break higher after the consolidation.

Why is the MACD on the weekly chart a concern for the analyst?

The MACD on the weekly chart is a concern because it shows the first signs of a lower high after a strong parabolic rally. This could indicate a potential slowdown or reversal in Nvidia’s upward momentum.

What is the significance of the options flow mentioned towards the end of the video?

The options flow gives insight into market sentiment. Despite some bullish call options being placed, the analyst notes that the options flow is becoming mixed, with some bears starting to step in. This suggests uncertainty about the future direction of the stock.

What price levels are the analyst focusing on for Nvidia's next move?

The analyst is closely watching the 179-180 range as a key support level on the downside and the 183-184 range as resistance. A break above the resistance could signal further bullish momentum, while a drop below the support could lead to a bearish reversal.

Why is tomorrow (the day of options expiration) important for Nvidia's stock movement?

Tomorrow is significant due to options expiration (OPEX), which could bring increased volatility. The analyst hopes for a strong bullish move to avoid the MACD on the weekly chart from printing a lower high, which would signal a potential top in the rally.

What role does the SMI (Stochastic Momentum Index) play in the analysis?

The SMI is used to measure whether the stock is overbought or oversold. The analyst points out that when the SMI is overheated, along with the MACD printing lower highs, it has historically signaled that Nvidia's parabolic rallies might be nearing their end.

What does the analyst expect if Nvidia breaks the 183-184 resistance range?

If Nvidia breaks the 183-184 resistance range, the analyst expects a rally towards the upper end of the current channel, potentially reaching the mid-to-high 190s, especially leading into earnings.