NVDA Stock - Can NVIDIA Still See Higher Next?

Summary

In this Nvidia daily update, the analysis focuses on Nvidia's stock performance, technical indicators, and potential future trends. The stock closed at $182, showing slight outperformance. While the daily chart remains neutral to slightly bullish, there's uncertainty due to resistance around $183-$184 and bearish signals from the weekly MACD. Despite a possible bull flag formation on the 1-hour chart, Nvidia's movement remains range-bound. Key to future direction is whether the stock can break above key resistance and hold, with the broader semiconductor market also influencing the outlook.

Takeaways

• 😀 Nvidia closed the day with a slight gain, up almost 1%, closing at $182 per share, showing moderate outperformance compared to the broader market.
• 😀 The weekly MACD indicator has printed its first lower high, signaling potential weakness ahead, though the pattern could take time to play out.
• 😀 The daily chart remains neutral to slightly bullish, with the price holding above the 179-180 range and the 9 EMA at 181, but facing rejection near the 183-184 resistance zone.
• 😀 A key technical level to watch is the 183-184 range. Bulls need to break above this level to maintain upward momentum; failure to do so could lead to problems.
• 😀 Despite the slight bullish bias on the daily chart, the MACD is showing a divergence, with lower lows forming on the indicator while the price is rising, indicating a potential weakness in bullish momentum.
• 😀 There is potential for a breakout if the price manages to hold above key resistance levels and turn them into support, which would confirm more bullish continuation.
• 😀 The 1-hour chart shows the potential for a bull flag pattern, although it's not a perfect setup. A breakout could signal further bullish movement, but confirmation is needed.
• 😀 The current market action has led to many traders getting stopped out, and there's a risk of a 'bull trap' if the breakout fails and the price reverses quickly.
• 😀 A key focus is to monitor the price action at the 183-184 level for any meaningful breakout or failure. A false breakout would lead to significant downside risk.
• 😀 The SMH (Semiconductor ETF) printed a bearish-looking candle last week, which could suggest a potential downturn if the pattern continues, though historical context shows it could also be a false signal.

Q & A

What is the primary focus of this Nvidia daily update?

The primary focus is analyzing Nvidia's stock performance, the current market trend, and what might happen moving forward based on technical indicators like the MACD and price movements.

What is the significance of the MACD indicator in the analysis?

The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is used to identify potential shifts in market momentum. In the script, it shows signs of weakness due to lower highs, indicating a potential bearish trend, but it’s still being monitored for changes.

Why does the speaker emphasize that the MACD is not cooperating?

The speaker points out that while the stock price is increasing, the MACD is showing lower highs, which could signal divergence and a lack of momentum, making it less reliable for confirming bullish trends.

What key levels are being monitored for a breakout in Nvidia’s stock?

The key levels to watch are 183 to 184, which represent a resistance zone. A breakout above this level could suggest further bullish momentum.

How does the speaker interpret the daily chart’s current trend?

The daily chart is mixed—neutral to slightly bullish—indicating that while the stock is holding certain levels like 179 to 180 and the 9 exponential moving average, there are also signs of rejection around the 183 to 184 range, which could be problematic if not broken.

What is the importance of the 1-hour time frame in the analysis?

The 1-hour time frame is used to look for more immediate trends, and here it suggests a potential bullish flag pattern. However, the speaker emphasizes the need for confirmation through a breakout and a hold above key resistance levels.

What does the speaker mean by a 'liquidity sweep'?

A liquidity sweep refers to a situation where prices temporarily drop below support or resistance levels, triggering stop orders and trapping traders, only for the price to quickly reverse and move in the opposite direction, often trapping those who sold short or bought into the move.

How does the speaker view the current market range for Nvidia’s stock?

The speaker sees Nvidia’s stock stuck within a narrow range, with bulls stepping in around the 179-180 level and bears stepping in near the 183-184 resistance. There is no clear direction unless a breakout or breakdown occurs.

What are the potential risks in the current market situation for Nvidia’s stock?

The main risk is the lack of clear direction, leading to potential volatility and stop-losses getting triggered. If the stock fails to break key levels, it could result in more choppy, sideways movement or a sudden reversal.

What does the speaker say about the broader market and other stocks in relation to Nvidia?

The speaker briefly mentions the broader market and other stocks like Tesla and Rocket Lab, noting that his analysis covers various stocks, but Nvidia is the main focus of this update. The speaker also provides daily updates to members for more in-depth market analysis.