TESLA Stock - Have Bulls Saved TSLA?

Summary

In this Tesla stock update, the presenter reviews recent market trends, focusing on Tesla’s performance and the broader market's current state. He discusses Tesla's minor gains and potential dead cat bounce, highlighting key support levels, technical indicators, and short-term price patterns. Although the stock appears to be in a neutral phase, there's anticipation of a bigger move due to building market pressure. The analysis includes chart patterns, moving averages, and options flow, with a watchful eye on key levels like $300 and $315. The video emphasizes the uncertainty ahead while suggesting patience in decision-making.

Takeaways

• 😀 Tesla's stock saw a modest increase of about 2%, but underperformed compared to the broader market, which rose by about 2% as well.
• 📉 The market is potentially in a dead cat bounce scenario after a significant drop, and there may be another leg down before any meaningful recovery.
• 🔮 The VIX is showing signs of a breakout, suggesting potential short-term weakness for the markets if it continues to rise.
• 📊 Tesla's stock has been fairly stagnant over the past two months, with no significant upward or downward movement, leaving it in a 'limbo' state.
• 💼 Bullish news about Elon Musk's compensation plan pushed Tesla up 2% in pre-market, but the stock ended the day with indecision, forming a flat doji candle.
• 📈 On the 1-hour chart, Tesla's stock shows a potential rising triangle pattern, which could lead to a small short-term pop, but the bigger question remains its long-term direction.
• 🕰️ The 4-hour chart shows a falling wedge pattern, suggesting that Tesla may consolidate between $300 and $313 for a few days before breaking out in either direction.
• 🔴 Despite holding above the $300 support level, Tesla's momentum remains weak, and if it closes below $300 on higher time frames, it could signal a bearish move towards $270 to $240.
• 📉 The stock is currently at a critical stage where it needs to gain momentum to push higher. If it fails, it could continue to stagnate or decline further.
• 📅 Tesla could be nearing the apex of a significant move as it potentially forms a third inside monthly candle in a row, indicating that pressure is building up and a big move is expected soon.

Q & A

What was the overall performance of Tesla stock in today's market?

Tesla stock closed up slightly, gaining just over 2%, which was a respectable amount but still underperformed relative to the broader market, with the QQQs rising about 2% as well.

Why does the speaker consider the market situation 'interesting'?

The speaker views the market situation as interesting because of a potential dead cat bounce. The market had experienced a significant drop, and the speaker suspects a possible rising wedge or dead cat bounce, followed by a potential continuation lower.

What is the speaker's opinion on the recent bullish news about Elon Musk's compensation plan?

The speaker acknowledges the bullish news about Elon Musk’s compensation plan, which resulted in a pre-market 2% increase in Tesla stock. However, they express disappointment that the stock didn’t show more strength after the news, closing flat by the end of the day.

What does the speaker mention about the potential short-term movement of Tesla stock?

The speaker speculates that Tesla stock might form a small rising triangle pattern on the 1-hour chart, possibly pushing up to around $313-$315 in the short term over the next day or two.

What are the potential long-term concerns for Tesla stock according to the speaker?

The speaker highlights that Tesla has been in a stagnant phase for nearly two months, with no significant upward or downward movement. They are concerned about the lack of momentum, especially as the stock risks crossing below important moving averages, which could signal further downward pressure.

What technical pattern is the speaker observing on the 4-hour chart?

On the 4-hour chart, the speaker notes a potential falling wedge pattern forming, where Tesla stock is making lower lows but almost equal lows. The speaker anticipates possible consolidation within this pattern, with a breakout expected in the coming days.

What is the significance of Tesla holding above the $300 support level?

The $300 support level is seen as crucial. The speaker mentions that as long as Tesla stays above $300, it is still holding up well. However, if the stock closes below $300, it could signal a bearish trend, with potential targets around $270-$240.

What are the indicators that suggest Tesla's momentum is weakening?

The speaker points out the potential bearish crossover of the exponential moving averages (EMAs) and the declining MACD as signs that Tesla’s momentum is weakening. The stock is showing lower lows on the MACD, indicating a possible further loss of momentum.

What does the speaker say about the weekly chart for Tesla?

On the weekly chart, the speaker notes that Tesla is printing an inside week candle and is still contained within a pennant pattern. They mention the MACD making lower lows, which could suggest that Tesla is coiling up for a bigger move, though it hasn’t yet broken out.

How does the speaker describe the overall sentiment surrounding Tesla stock?

The speaker describes the overall sentiment as neutral and 'flaccid.' While Tesla isn’t showing strong bullish or bearish momentum, it has been stuck in a period of indecision. The stock is coiling, with the potential for a larger move, but it's unclear which direction that move will take.