TESLA Stock - TSLA Earnings Movement

Summary

In this Tesla stock update video, the creator analyzes Tesla's stock performance, including its flat earnings report and market reactions. They predict a potential small decline in the stock price towards $320 before a possible bounce, with an emphasis on consolidation and key technical levels. The creator shares their overall bullish sentiment, highlighting key price points to watch, such as $300 and mid-$340s. They also discuss the potential influence of Elon Musk's earnings call on stock movement and note significant options flow data, ending with an optimistic yet cautious outlook for Tesla's stock in the coming weeks.

Takeaways

• 😀 Tesla stock closed flat at $332.50, with minor movement after hours, indicating a neutral market reaction.
• 😀 The earnings report was described as 'okay' — not amazing but also not terrible, leading to a relatively calm reaction in the stock price.
• 😀 The earnings call is the key event to watch, as Elon Musk's comments could swing the stock either way (e.g., positive or negative sentiment).
• 😀 The stock has seen a solid upward move, but consolidation around $320 is expected before any further upward momentum.
• 😀 A bullish pennant pattern is forming on the chart, indicating potential for a breakout, but it may take time for this to materialize.
• 😀 Key price levels to monitor: Above $335 could lead to mid-$340s, and below $328 could indicate a potential drop to $320. A fall below $320 might signal a deeper decline towards $300.
• 😀 The stock is currently in the bull's court, with the next major risk being a drop below $300, which could indicate the bulls losing control.
• 😀 There’s room within the bullish pennant for consolidation both to the downside and upside before any major breakout occurs.
• 😀 Despite bearish options flow dominating, there's been some bullish activity (e.g., a $7 million bet on 350 strike calls for August 15), which adds uncertainty to the outlook.
• 😀 The middle of August could be a crucial time for Tesla, with potential for either a breakout or further consolidation leading up to that period.
• 😀 The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with the expectation of a slight pullback to $320 before a potential move up toward $340, followed by further consolidation.

Q & A

What was the stock reaction to Tesla's latest earnings report?

Tesla's stock remained relatively flat after the earnings report, with a slight 0.14% increase during regular trading hours, followed by a minor dip after hours.

Why does the speaker predict a flat stock reaction post-earnings?

The speaker believes the earnings report was neither exceptional nor disastrous, which is why the stock stayed relatively flat. They also expect the earnings call to influence any major stock movement.

What is the significance of the earnings call in Tesla's stock movement?

The earnings call is seen as crucial because it could spark either an 'Elon pump' or a 'fade,' depending on the tone and comments made by Elon Musk during the call.

What does the speaker expect for Tesla's stock in the short term?

The speaker expects a small consolidation and potential dip to around $320 before possibly seeing a pump back to the $340 range. The stock is expected to be stuck within a consolidation phase before any major breakout.

What technical patterns is the speaker watching for in Tesla's stock?

The speaker is observing a bullish pennant pattern and the behavior of the exponential moving averages (EMAs) and MACD indicators, which suggest the stock could be in a bullish territory.

Why is $320 a critical price level for Tesla's stock?

The speaker views $320 as a significant support level. If Tesla’s stock falls below this level, it could indicate further downside, possibly moving toward $300.

What is the potential upside for Tesla's stock according to the speaker?

The speaker believes that if Tesla’s stock breaks above the $335 level, it could reach the mid-$340s, and potentially higher, triggering an upward movement.

What role does the options flow play in the speaker's analysis?

The speaker mentions that large bullish options flow, particularly a significant amount of $350 calls for August 15th, could indicate market optimism. However, if the stock does not move significantly, those options could suffer from implied volatility crush.

What does the speaker say about the bullish and bearish scenarios?

The speaker suggests that the bullish scenario is largely in control, as long as Tesla remains above $320. However, if the stock falls below this level, it could signal a bearish trend, with $300 as the key downside level.

What does the speaker mean by a 'bullish pennant' and why is it important?

A bullish pennant is a technical pattern where the stock consolidates within a narrowing range, usually signaling that a breakout to the upside is possible. The speaker views this pattern as a sign that Tesla's stock could rise if the consolidation phase concludes positively.