TESLA Stock - TSLA Bulls MUST Step In Now

Summary

In this Tesla stock update video, the creator analyzes the stock's current performance, market trends, and possible future movements. While acknowledging the stock's recent bearish behavior, they discuss key levels to watch, such as reclaiming 315-320 to signal a bullish reversal. The video outlines potential scenarios for Tesla stock, including sideways movement, short-term losses to 240, and the importance of earnings for determining the next direction. The creator also shares insights into options flow and market sentiment, stressing a cautious approach, with an overall bearish outlook unless key levels are reclaimed.

Takeaways

• 😀 Tesla stock closed up by 1.32%, though it gave up some of the gains from earlier in the day, peaking around 3.5%.
• 😀 The stock's performance moving forward depends on whether it can recover and get back above the $315-$320 range by the end of the week.
• 😀 A recovery above $315-$320 could signal a shift back to a bullish perspective, particularly if Tesla reclaims its exponential moving averages and rising channel support.
• 😀 If Tesla fails to reclaim key support levels like $315-$320, it will likely remain in a bearish phase with downside pressure.
• 😀 Tesla's immediate short-term outlook appears sideways, with potential price movement between $270 and $310 until a direction is determined.
• 😀 A drop below $270 would raise the likelihood of a decline to $240, which is seen as a potential key support zone.
• 😀 The bearish case suggests that the stock could eventually reach as low as $240, with further downside risks down to $170-$180 in the most extreme scenario.
• 😀 Short-term downward pressure seems minimal, with expectations that Tesla won't drop much below $280 in the coming days unless there is a major market shift.
• 😀 A potential bull flag pattern could form, indicating a short-term move to $307-$310, but this is less likely at the moment given the overall bearish market sentiment.
• 😀 Options flow data showed significant bearish activity towards the end of the day, although a random bullish bet on the $290 strike for August 15th options was also observed.
• 😀 Tesla's stock currently sits in a defensive stance from a bullish perspective, and the best case scenario for bulls is a breakout above $315-$320 to reverse the current bearish trend.

Q & A

What was Tesla's stock performance at the end of the day?

Tesla closed the day up 1.32%, although it had gained as much as 3.5% earlier in the day, but gave up a significant portion of those gains by the close.

What is the critical price level Tesla needs to recover to shift sentiment back to bullish?

Tesla needs to reclaim the 315-320 range to shift sentiment back to bullish. If the stock gets back above these levels, it would confirm a positive shift in key technical indicators like the MACD and exponential moving averages (EMAs).

What would be considered a 'nice recovery' for Tesla according to the speaker?

A 'nice recovery' for Tesla would involve the stock getting back above 315-320, which is seen as a key level for turning the technical outlook from bearish to bullish.

Why is the 270 price level considered critical in the analysis?

The 270 level is critical because if Tesla drops below it, the bearish scenario increases in probability, and the stock could potentially target a lower level, such as 240.

What range does the speaker expect Tesla to trade within in the short term?

In the short term, the speaker expects Tesla to trade range-bound between 270 and 310, as the stock may not break out in either direction until a clear trend develops.

What does the speaker believe is the most likely scenario if Tesla breaks below 270?

If Tesla breaks below 270, the speaker believes the stock could drop towards the 240 level, which is seen as a key Fibonacci retracement level, offering a potential support point and an opportunity for a bounce.

What is the speaker's outlook on Tesla stock for the rest of July?

The speaker expects Tesla to remain range-bound between 270 and 310 for the rest of July, with earnings potentially serving as the catalyst for the next directional move.

What is the significance of the Fibonacci retracement levels in the analysis?

The Fibonacci retracement levels are significant because they help identify potential support and resistance zones. Specifically, the 240 level aligns with a key Fibonacci level, which is considered an optimal entry point for long positions if the stock drops to that price.

What role do options flow and large call buys play in the analysis of Tesla stock?

The speaker mentions unusual options flow, with a large number of 290-strike call options expiring in mid-August, totaling around $5 million. While this could indicate a potential bullish bet or a hedge, the speaker cautions that options flow alone isn’t a reliable indicator of future stock movement.

What is the speaker's primary stance on Tesla stock right now?

The speaker is leaning bearish on Tesla in the short term, as the stock is below key technical levels like the exponential moving averages and the rising channel support. However, if the stock proves the speaker wrong and breaks above critical levels, the outlook could turn bullish.