TESLA Stock - Big Move Coming Soon

Summary

In this Tesla update, the focus is on analyzing Tesla's stock ahead of earnings, including short-term and long-term predictions. The speaker covers key technical factors like Fibonacci levels, MACD, and exponential moving averages, suggesting that Tesla might experience consolidation in the short term. The speaker also discusses a possible bullish setup if Tesla stock reaches the low 320s, despite potential volatility from earnings. Options flow data is mixed, with slight bearish leanings at the end of the day, while earnings remain a major unknown. Overall, the analysis suggests caution but a potential for upward movement after earnings.

Takeaways

• 😀 Tesla's earnings announcement is a major event for the company, and the stock's reaction is uncertain, with a potential small movement expected.
• 😀 Tesla stock is currently in a large bullish pennant formation, with potential breakout points at around $340 and $300, marking key levels to watch.
• 😀 The market is expecting an implied move of 7% for Tesla, which could result in price fluctuations between $306 and $351, but the actual move might be less than expected.
• 😀 Short-term, Tesla's chart shows some signs of weakness, including a small drop in price to around $320, which could trigger a bullish setup for earnings.
• 😀 The stock is showing positive technical indicators, such as a bullish crossover of exponential moving averages (EMAs) and a bullish MACD signal.
• 😀 A slight sell-off to the $320 range could reset the SMI (Stochastic Momentum Index) on the 4-hour chart, potentially setting the stage for a rebound.
• 😀 Despite the potential for short-term drops, the overall chart setup appears bullish, suggesting the stock may rise if it holds above key levels like $320.
• 😀 In the very short term, if Tesla closes a 15-minute candle below $328 to $330, it could indicate a move towards $320. A close above $331 could lead to a retest of $335.
• 😀 Options flow data is mixed, with some bullish sentiment in the morning but neutral to slightly bearish sentiment towards the end of the day.
• 😀 The speaker suggests that a bullish breakout could occur post-earnings, especially if the stock consolidates and moves above key resistance levels, possibly approaching $440.

Q & A

What is the primary focus of this Tesla update video?

The video focuses on providing an analysis of Tesla stock, discussing market movements, and preparing for Tesla's earnings report. The speaker also shares insights on Tesla's potential stock performance in the short and long term.

What is the current status of Tesla stock as mentioned in the video?

Tesla's stock is currently hovering around $330 per share, with the market showing a generally flat trend. The speaker mentions potential warning signs if the stock closes in the red, suggesting slight weakness.

What does the speaker predict about Tesla's earnings report?

The speaker predicts that Tesla's earnings report will result in less volatility than many expect. They believe that there might be an 'IV crush' (Implied Volatility crush), indicating that the price movement after the earnings report may not be as drastic.

What range does the market expect Tesla's stock to move within after earnings?

The market expects Tesla’s stock to move between $306 and $351 per share, with an implied move of around 7%. This indicates a potential fluctuation of about $20-$25 in either direction.

How does the speaker view Tesla's stock chart in the medium to long term?

The speaker sees Tesla's stock as being in a large bullish pennant pattern, suggesting that while short-term movements may be volatile, the stock is likely to remain within this range for some time, potentially until August.

What does the speaker think will determine the next big move for Tesla's stock?

The next significant movement for Tesla's stock may be triggered by key announcements, such as news about RoboTaxis or Elon Musk's compensation package. These events could influence the market's direction.

What technical indicators are important to the speaker for predicting Tesla's short-term stock movements?

The speaker highlights the importance of exponential moving averages (EMAs), Fibonacci retracements, and the MACD indicator. A bullish crossover in the MACD and the setup near the EMAs are key signals that the speaker looks for when predicting short-term price movements.

What is the significance of the $320 price level for Tesla's stock?

The $320 price level is considered significant by the speaker. If Tesla’s stock drops to this level before earnings, the speaker would lean bullish, believing that the stock could rebound, especially given the technical setup near the EMAs.

What warning signs does the speaker mention regarding Tesla's stock?

One warning sign is that the SMI (Stochastic Momentum Index) on the 4-hour chart is nearing the upper end of its spectrum, suggesting potential consolidation or a bearish crossover. If this happens, the stock may face a period of sideways movement or a slight decline.

What are the potential price targets for Tesla's stock if it breaks out of its current pennant?

If Tesla's stock breaks above the upper end of the pennant, which is currently around the low to mid-$340s, the speaker believes it could reach $400 per share. Conversely, if the stock breaks below $300, it could drop to around $270, or even as low as the $240s.