UK House Prices 2024 | An Economist's View

Summary

In this insightful podcast, Dr. John, an economist and chartered surveyor, shares his expertise on the property market, particularly in Scotland. He discusses the current trends, noting a steady housing market with modest price increases despite economic challenges. He also addresses the differences between urban and rural markets, the impact of rent controls, and the potential for a 'Help to Build' program to increase affordable housing. Dr. John offers practical advice for those considering moving, emphasizing the importance of research and professional guidance in navigating the market.

Takeaways

• 😀 The speaker expresses gratitude for the support received and emphasizes the value of the content provided by Move IQ in relation to property questions.
• 🎓 Dr. John, a guest on the podcast, has a background in economics and chartered surveying, with around 20 years of experience in the field, including working for Reties, a leading independent property company in Scotland.
• 🏘️ The housing market in Scotland has shown resilience, with steady house prices and modest growth despite economic challenges such as the cost of living crisis and rising interest rates.
• 📈 Market activity in Scotland has been accelerating, with an increase in transactions and listings, and mortgage lending showing an upward trend, suggesting a positive outlook for the housing market.
• 🌍 Dr. John notes that while Scotland has a different constitutional settlement, it generally follows similar economic trends as the rest of the UK, which is reflected in the housing market.
• 💰 The speaker discusses the potential impact of political events and global conflicts on the housing market, but suggests that barring significant shocks, the market can be cautiously optimistic.
• 🏢 There are differences in the housing market dynamics between urban and rural areas in Scotland, with city markets and their hinterlands experiencing more growth due to increased economic activity and desirability.
• 🚫 The lifting of rent controls in Scotland may have disrupted the market, leading to a larger markup between tenancies and potentially exacerbating rent increases in cities like Glasgow and Edinburgh.
• 🏗️ The speaker highlights the importance of addressing the housing supply issue, suggesting that government incentives for building affordable and starter homes could help balance the market.
• 💡 Dr. John suggests that mortgage innovation, such as longer-term mortgages and mortgage insurance systems similar to those in Canada, could help first-time buyers enter the housing market.
• 📉 The speaker advises against waiting for a house price crash, as the housing market has proven resilient and house prices generally trend upwards over time, especially considering the housing shortage in relation to population growth.

Q & A

What is the main focus of the Move IQ company mentioned in the transcript?

Move IQ focuses on providing valuable content related to property questions and supporting individuals with insights into the property market.

What is Dr. John's professional background, and how did he become involved in the field of property economics?

Dr. John is an economist and a charter surveyor. He fell into the field about 20 years ago after completing his undergraduate and PhD degrees in economics, working in academia, the public sector, and later in a private sector consultancy that was acquired by a large property company. He retrained to become a property economist and a charter surveyor.

How long has Dr. John been working at Reties, and what is his role there?

Dr. John has been working at Reties, a leading independent property company in Scotland, for about 12 years. He is part of the research and consultancy team, advising clients on market direction and business strategies.

What was Dr. John's view on the housing market in Scotland at the time of the podcast?

Dr. John observed that the market activity was accelerating, prices were steady, and economic conditions were turning more positive in Scotland.

How does the housing market in Scotland compare to other regions within the UK?

Scotland tends to follow similar economic trends as the UK, with the housing market moving in line with the general economy. Scotland sits at mid-table or just above in terms of various socio-economic indicators compared to English regions and other countries within the UK.

What were the main factors contributing to the stability of house prices in Scotland despite a difficult market?

Factors such as falling mortgage rates, improving economic sentiment, and the procyclical nature of the housing market contributed to the stability of house prices in Scotland.

What are some of the challenges facing the housing market, according to Dr. John?

Challenges include high inflation, rising mortgage costs, the need for larger deposits, and political uncertainties such as elections and international conflicts.

How does Dr. John perceive the impact of rent controls and their potential lifting on the Scottish housing market?

Dr. John believes that rent controls have disrupted the market, leading to a bigger markup between tenancies and possibly exacerbating rent increases in cities like Glasgow and Edinburgh.

What advice does Dr. John give to someone considering moving or buying property in the next 12 months?

Dr. John advises setting a sensible budget and criteria, seeking good advice from agents or mortgage brokers, shopping around for mortgage products, and not rushing into decisions.

What are Dr. John's thoughts on the potential for a house price crash, and should potential buyers be concerned about this?

Dr. John does not anticipate a house price crash in the near future and advises against letting fears of a crash prevent people from making informed decisions about buying property.

How does Dr. John view the future of home ownership, especially considering the challenges faced by first-time buyers?

Dr. John believes that while the desire for home ownership remains strong, societal trends may be moving towards a more European model where people choose to rent, especially if good quality rental options are available.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Economic and Housing Market Insights

The speaker expresses gratitude for the support received and introduces Dr. John, an economist and chartered surveyor with a diverse background in economics and property sectors. Dr. John discusses his career path and current role in advising clients on market trends. He provides an analysis of the Scottish housing market, noting similarities with the UK's broader economic trends. Despite challenges such as the cost of living crisis and interest rate hikes, the market has shown resilience with stable house prices and modest growth. Dr. John also touches on the potential impact of political events and global conflicts on the housing market.

05:01

🏡 Housing Market Dynamics and Regional Differences

Dr. John delves into the dynamics of the housing market in Scotland, highlighting the growth in city markets and their surrounding areas, which have seen increased demand due to economic activity and accessibility to urban amenities. He contrasts this with the challenges faced by remote rural areas, where demand has been weaker. The pandemic's influence on the market is also discussed, with people moving further away from cities but still seeking proximity for work and amenities. Dr. John mentions specific areas like East Lothian, which has experienced growth due to scenic appeal and the retirement market.

10:02

🏘️ Impact of Rent Controls and Housing Supply

The conversation shifts to the effects of rent controls in Scotland, which have been lifted as of April 1st, replacing the previous cap with a rent adjudication process. Dr. John suggests that the controls have disrupted the market, leading to higher markups between tenancies and potentially exacerbating rent increases in cities like Glasgow and Edinburgh. The discussion also addresses the challenges of the private rented sector, the impact of government interventions, and the potential consequences of a shrinking supply of rental properties due to tax situations for landlords.

15:06

💼 Economic Policies and Housing Affordability

Dr. John discusses the potential outcomes of the upcoming elections and the fiscal policies that may affect the economy and housing market. He anticipates a moderate labor government that will adhere to existing fiscal rules, with the Bank of England continuing to manage interest rates. The speaker and Dr. John explore the possibility of a rebalance in housing affordability, with suggestions for government incentives to increase the supply of affordable homes and innovative mortgage solutions to help first-time buyers.

20:06

👥 Changing Attitudes Toward Home Ownership

The discussion considers the societal shift in attitudes toward home ownership, with an increasing number of people in the private rented sector (PRS) beyond their early years. Dr. John suggests that the rental model may become more prevalent, especially for younger individuals who value mobility. However, concerns are raised about the long-term implications for those who retire without owning property, especially if rents continue to rise. The conversation also touches on the need for quality rental accommodations and the potential for a more European model of living.

🔍 Advice for Prospective Home Buyers

Dr. John offers advice for individuals considering buying a home in the next 12 months. He emphasizes the importance of understanding one's budget and affordability, setting criteria for the desired property, and seeking professional advice from agents and mortgage brokers. He advises against rushing the process and to be prepared for potential disappointments. Dr. John reassures that despite market fluctuations, property remains a good long-term investment due to the island's increasing population and housing shortage.

🏡 Encouraging Downsizing and Housing Development

The final paragraph addresses the issue of downsizing and the potential measures that could encourage older homeowners to free up larger homes. Dr. John suggests tax incentives and exemptions as possible solutions, such as capital gains and stamp duty exemptions. He also stresses the importance of building suitable homes for downsizers and the need for a coordinated approach to housing policy to address the shortage of family homes and accommodate the changing demographics.

Keywords

💡Property Market

The property market refers to the economic sector dealing with the buying, selling, and renting of real estate. In the video's context, it is the focus of discussions, as the guest, Dr. John, provides insights into market trends and their impact on housing. The script mentions market activity accelerating and prices remaining steady, indicating a stable yet active property market.

💡Economist

An economist is a professional who studies the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services. Dr. John, the guest in the script, is an economist and a charter surveyor, which positions him as an expert in analyzing economic conditions and their effects on the property market, such as how they influence housing prices and market activity.

💡Charter Surveyor

A chartered surveyor is a professional who specializes in the assessment and valuation of land and property. Dr. John's background as a chartered surveyor is relevant to the video's theme, as it allows him to provide expert advice on market directions and property valuations, which are crucial aspects of the property market discussion.

💡Housing Affordability

Housing affordability refers to the ability of potential homebuyers to afford the purchase of a home. The script discusses the challenges of affordability due to rising mortgage costs and deposit requirements, which are significant barriers for first-time buyers entering the market.

💡Interest Rates

Interest rates are the percentage at which borrowing or lending occurs, impacting the cost of mortgages. The script mentions that interest rates are expected to fall but remain higher than they were 18 months prior, affecting the housing market by making borrowing more expensive for potential buyers.

💡Supply and Demand

Supply and demand is the economic principle that describes how the relationship between the quantity of a resource available and the desire for that resource affects its price. In the script, the balance of supply and demand in the housing market is discussed, particularly in relation to rent increases in Glasgow and Edinburgh.

💡Rental Market

The rental market involves the leasing of property for a fixed period in exchange for regular payments. The script discusses the dynamics of the rental market, including the impact of rent controls, the supply of rental properties, and the potential consequences of an aging population that has rented throughout their lives.

💡Downsizing

Downsizing refers to the process of moving to a smaller home, often undertaken by retirees or those seeking to reduce living expenses. The script suggests that encouraging downsizing could free up larger family homes for younger buyers, and it explores potential tax incentives to facilitate this process.

💡Mortgage Lending

Mortgage lending is the practice of providing loans to homebuyers to purchase property. The script notes that mortgage lending is on an upward trajectory, indicating increased activity in the housing market as more loans are being provided to potential buyers.

💡Property Economics

Property economics involves understanding the financial aspects of real estate, including market trends, investment returns, and valuation. Dr. John's expertise in property economics allows him to provide insights into the broader economic trends affecting the housing market, such as cost of living crises and interest rate changes.

💡Rural vs. Urban Areas

The distinction between rural and urban areas is an important aspect of property market analysis. The script highlights differences in housing market dynamics between these areas, with urban and city markets experiencing more growth due to factors like economic activity and accessibility to amenities.

Highlights

Introduction of Dr. John, an economist and charter surveyor with 20 years of experience in the property sector.

Dr. John's background includes working in academia, public sector, and private sector consultancy before specializing in property economics.

Dr. John's current role at Reties, a leading independent property company in Scotland, involves advising on market trends and business directions.

Recent LinkedIn post by Dr. John suggests market activity is accelerating with steady prices and improving economic conditions in Scotland.

Dr. John's view that the housing market in Scotland follows similar trends to the UK as a whole, despite constitutional differences.

Market challenges in 2023 due to the cost of living crisis, rise in interest and mortgage rates, but house prices remained stable with a modest increase.

Positive start to 2024 with increased activity rates, mortgage lending, and stable house prices according to ONS statistics.

The impact of political events and conflicts on the housing market is unpredictable but assuming stability, the market outlook is cautiously positive.

Dr. John discusses the challenges for first-time buyers due to higher mortgage costs and deposit requirements.

Expectations that the era of cheap borrowing is over, with new normal interest rates around 3-3.5%.

Differences in housing market dynamics between urban and rural areas in Scotland, with city markets and their hinterlands seeing main growth.

The impact of rent controls in Scotland, with the rent freeze cap being lifted and replaced by a rent adjudication process.

Concerns about the potential negative effects of rent controls on supply and affordability in the rental market.

Dr. John's skepticism about the possibility of a house price crash and the resilience of the housing market through recessions.

Suggestion to incentivize 'Help to Build' programs to increase the supply of affordable and starter homes.

Discussion on the potential of mortgage innovation and longer-term mortgages to help people get onto the housing market.

Dr. John's advice for those considering moving in the next 12 months, emphasizing the importance of doing thorough research and seeking good advice.

The importance of not rushing into a move and being prepared for disappointments along the way.

Dr. John's perspective on the long-term investment value of houses, especially considering the housing shortage and increasing population.

Potential strategies to encourage downsizers to free up family homes, such as tax incentives and benefits.

Transcripts

I'm committed to supporting you and

helping you with valuable content um in

relation to all of your property

questions there's a lot to cover um

there always is but with your support we

at move IQ can absolutely make it happen

so if you do find the content valuable

and useful I'd be super grateful if you

would hit the Subscribe button and

become part of our community and we will

absolutely carry on doing what we're

doing Dr John very warm welcome to the

podcast thank you so much for for coming

on board for the benefit of the audience

could you just briefly share your your

background and explain a little bit

about about what you do for a living and

and how that came about because I think

it's quite

relevant yeah uh thanks for very happy

to be here thanks for the invite on uh

so I'm an economist um as well as a

charter surveyor I kind of fell into it

I suppose um about 20 years ago um so I

did my undergrad degree in economics I

then did my PhD in economics for the

time I worked in public sector um in

Academia um and then I worked in a

private sector consultancy that got

bought over by large property company so

um um I retrained become a property

Economist and then went Allin and became

a charter surveyor as well so I've been

doing it for doing this job for around

about 20 years I've been at reties which

is a leading independent property

company in Scotland um for about 12

years um and and I'm part of the

research and consultancy team so as well

as advising clients on the market and

the general business on Market direction

we also have a range of external clients

both in the private and public sector

needless to say highly well qualified to

talk to us about the the economy and and

how it affects the housing market and of

course vice versa I I I noticed that you

recently post on LinkedIn that your view

at the moment was that market activity

was accelerating prices were steady

economic conditions um turning more

positive but that was all of course um

up in Scotland do you feel that the same

sentiment supply for for England and

Wales yeah I mean I think so um although

Scotland has a different constitutional

settlement now um Scotland if you look

at across a range of socio economic

indicators whether it be you know

earnings economic activity rates um

population growth Scotland is around

about mid table if you look at the uh

English regions and the other countries

within the UK Scotland sits at mid-table

or just above mid-table almost these

indicators exception is Health uh where

Scotland tends to be down near the

bottom of the table but it's um we tend

to follow the similar economic Trends as

the UK and the housing market is

procyclical um of course which tends

moving in in line with the general

economy and you can see that with the

Scottish housing market as well it's

followed very similar UK uh housing

market trends over the last 20 to 30

years so at over 23 as a whole it was a

difficult Market we were you know we

were expecting a difficult Market

because the cost of living crisis and

the um the rise in interest rates and

mortgage rates so uh Market activity

fell transactions were down 10% over the

years a whole but house prices stayed

stable in fact there was a modest uplift

in in house prices of about 1% at the um

at the end of the calendar year 24 has

started reasonably well it's important

not to get carried away because we've

only got you know a few months a data

but um activity rates are are up you can

tell that through uh the number of

registered sales can also tell it

through the uh volume of property that's

being listed and um mortgage lending uh

is also on an upward trajectory um house

prices broadly stable latest ons stats

that came out at the earlier this week

demonstrate that and there's a sense

that you know falling mortgage rates

with anticipation of mortgage rates

falling further over the course of the

year as well as improving sentiment

because of the gradually improving

economy will also have a positive impact

on the way to Market but then of course

we've also got elections both here and

America um we've got

conflicts um we've still got to get

inflation under control so so there's a

lot of there's a lot of of other sort of

variables and things that are going on

in the world that that I know in the

back of people's minds and and and just

wondering how those are likely to affect

housing markets decisions to move borrow

money etc

etc yeah I mean I I don't think although

we are going through a political cycle

um I'm not sure that the politics is

really going to change the direction of

the economy that much um at least in the

UK um both the uh the main part seem to

be on on the same page you

know in terms of economic policy it

looks like we're going to get a labor

government um at the end of this year

but it's a a labor government that will

be a moderate uh labor government and

it's going to tie itself to the same

fiscal rules that are being followed

just now so the bank of England is still

or the bank of England monry policy

committee is still going to be in charge

of interest rate setting yeah and

deflation is down you know so the latest

results which we G got this week um is

down now under 3 and a half% and it is

expected to fall further the usual

caveat Supply no one saw the Russia

Ukraine war No One S see saw the Israeli

Gaza conflict ring up to the extent that

it did no one can really foresee what

the the outcomes of some of these

political events are going to be but

know assuming other things equal and we

don't have any more significant shocks

to the system

then you know we can be broadly positive

or cautiously positive about the

direction of the housing market over the

next I've heard talking to agents over

the last few weeks people talking about

actually it seems to be a normal Market

it's a normal spring Market they're

getting getting instructions they're

doing business would how how do you feel

about

that uh up to a point yeah I mean I

think still think we've got significant

headwinds um so although inflation is

down it is still relatively High

although mortgage rates have been

falling um they have they're still much

higher than than what they were 18

months ago um for firsttime buyers which

is your kind of the lifeblood of your

Market um uh of the market you know they

have struggled to get onto the market

because of the uh Rising mortgage costs

and the size of the deposits required um

so it's a market that's still got those

headwinds but what we're seeing at least

you know at the end of 23 and the start

of 24 we're beginning to see the market

adapt better to those headwinds and

those headwinds have also become less

strong okay thank you um calming words

although um would you feel that the kind

of days of cheap money cheap borrowing

that they've they've that's been and

gone isn't it we're not going to see

that again surely yeah I I agree yeah I

mean I think um The New Normal will

probably be interest rates at something

around about 3 3 and a half% I don't

think that's necessarily a bad thing

yeah um I think you know the the the

year of um you know interest rates down

at at 1% or so that is very abnormal you

know um it's just we got rather used to

it then it's become a bit of a shock

yeah and I don't I don't think it's just

people within the housing market got

rather used to it I think you private

Equity got used to it I think you know

institutional funds got used to it you

know it's it's um

um it's it was always going to be an

adaption process after that period ended

getting back to something like normality

is not a bad thing how would you um

explain the differences in housing

market dynamics particularly in Scotland

but between urban and rural areas

because there are differences and they

seem to behave

differently uh yeah they do um I mean it

is one of the it is one of the

differentiators I suppose when you when

you are looking at uh market performance

the main growth that's happened in

Scotland um in recent years has largely

been in the city markets and in the

hinterland areas uh so that's areas kind

of spilling out from the cities which

can include mixed you know Urban rural

areas and in some instances rural areas

themselves but that are still commutable

to the main city so these are the areas

that have seen the demand you know these

where economic activity rates have

increased fastest

and this is and people still need to be

or prefer to be not that far away from

from from their work as well as uh the

amenities and the facilities that they

use so it's it's these areas that have

uh tended to grow and grow grow quicker

yeah and the pandemic also meant that

the hint areas moved out because people

were willing to move that a little bit

further and commit that a little bit

further and after the pandemic

um but there are parts of the country

like East lodan where you know you can

see clearly see there's an urban and

rural effect um so you know East loing

contains rural areas but rural areas

aren't that far away from City living

and this loan Market um has been one of

the fastest growing markets in Scotland

you know over the last five years there

is that I think of suffered most have

been the remote in rural areas so these

are the areas where demand has certainly

been weaker mhm um but there are

exceptions so our giling but there's

parts of our ging but where um the

market has risen faster than the uh than

the national average and that's because

um the second Home Market because

there's very very scenic areas within uh

uh within uh that local Authority but

also the retirement Market as people

look to move to these locations as a um

as as a place to TI now I couldn't get

you on and not ask about um rent

controls and and I know that they're

being lifted so there's going to be some

changes um could it backfire on the on

the Scottish government what's your take

on on on the impact of

this yeah we've had a rent freeze or cap

now in Scotland since uh September uh

2022 and an eviction ban um and the rent

freeze cap applies to existing tencies

only so uh not not between uh Tendencies

and that's now been lifted on the uh 1

of April uh this year and will be

replaced at least for a period of time

by a relatively complex rent

adjudication process um if the tenant

chooses to follow uh that R route so

there will still be some controls on

rents but they will not be as stringent

as you had with the uh with the rent cap

I think what it's done is it

um disrupted the market so you have the

control within tencies but you don't

have them between tencies and the

evidence would seem to suggest that

you're getting now a bigger markup

between tencies because of the cap yeah

within tenancies yeah and therefore it's

been a questionable just um what its

impact on affordability has been and it

would seem from the latest H track Sula

data that's that's come out early this

week that Glasgow and Edinburgh rents

are going up faster than they are

anywhere else um uh uh in the UK and it

is likely we've got a demand Supply and

balance in those cities but it is likely

that the the rent cap has

exacerbated uh that to some extent

suppli seems to have dropped back um

using the best evidence that we have

available uh in recent years and the bow

to rent sector which has been yeah you

know producing um uh units down south

particularly in places like uh L uh

London and Manchester and creating new

homes that sector is only really

embrionic in Scotland and the additional

political risk caused by the uh by the

by government intervention has meant

that you know we're not really seeing

that Supply go off the ground um like we

have in other parts of the UK I mean if

the supply continues to shrink because

of well the the the tax situation on

landlords um

we're going to get into a real pickle

aren't we as as a society as a whole

because there just simply won't be

enough investor owned

properties correct and we've got a

national system of rent controls in

Scotland coming soon um so that's going

to be in the new housing bill which is

due to be released in in in the next few

weeks here I understand so yeah you're

right you know it's economic con concept

of scarcity you know it has to find a

way out when you've got demand Supply

and balance it will normally find it way

out in price increases if you cap the

price increases it's a bit like a whack

you know so something will pop up and

what will pop up is cues and shortages

yeah I don't I don't like the way the

way it's feeling at the moment on on

that topic um I talked to Nathan Emerson

CEO of of property Mark a couple of

weeks ago um and we were talking about a

lot of people at the moment feel

excluded from the ability to to own

their own home do you think we'll ever

going to see an affordability a sort of

rebalance for those who want to buy and

and now being able to do so

do Nathan and I talked about it for some

time and we couldn't really see it

happening but what what's your what's

your thoughts on that

topic uh yeah I mean I think um in the

short term the the the the reduction in

mortgage rates will will definitely help

um but I think if you're kind of waiting

about for a house price crash to happen

um I I think you'll be disappointed um I

don't think it's going to happen anytime

soon um and the housing Market's proven

quite resilient as we could see through

the last couple of recessions um to even

you know Mark changes in uh economic um

activity as well as housing market

activity so the the correction tends to

be in transactions rather than in rather

than in house prices I think the

government can can help um I think you

know we should be trying to incentivize

help to build um not just help to buy

help to buy added to the demand side but

without really doing much for the supply

side so you tended to get house price

inflation as a result um but if we had a

you know a program um uh a help to Bild

program to try and encourage um an

increase in affordable homes and and

starter homes that it might be better to

put the money in that part of the

equation uh we could also look at um

mortgage Innovation you know through the

banks which is happening to some extent

so looking at longer term mortgages yeah

it's also looking at some kind of you

know mortgage insurance type system as

they have in Canada um which could lower

deposits and enable people to get onto

the housing market interesting that's

that's a really interesting concept and

that's working in Canada yeah it seems

to be yeah there was a report out

recently from the social Market

Foundation that um looked at some of

these International examples and what we

could learn from so it's worth a look it

seems to be still deeply embedded in our

kind of society and our psyche to own

our own

homes you mentioned Bild to rent earlier

and that's that's embryonic in Scotland

but um but it's certainly on its

way understand there's quite a lot in

the

pipeline do things like that is there a

generation that's starting to think as

you know what saving up for a deposit by

my own home is so Out Of Reach I'm

giving up the idea in which case I'll

I'll I'll live in a bill to rent or I'll

rent my own home forever do you think

that's changing in people's

minds yeah I mean I think I think the

desire is still um home ownership at

some point in your life cycle um but if

you haven't got into the housing ladder

by the time you're 40 or in your early

40s then you're going to struggle to

make it I think you know with a typical

you know 25 year mortgage term you're

going to struggle to make it and pay off

the mortgage before you before you

retire so we are seeing um an

increasing number of people between you

know 35 and 59 now in now in the PRS um

it's not just a it's not just a place

for younger people anymore but we may be

moving towards a more European model

where you know people choose to rent and

if we can provide good quality rented

accommodation that's got the amenities

and the facilties

that they require and young people in

particular tend to be more itinerate now

so they're moving around and perhaps

don't want to be you know tied to a

property in a particular location for a

longer period of time then a rental

model may make more sense and I think

the Advent of belter we're beginning to

see some of that move things in the UK

the worry of in my mind is what happens

when those people who have rented

throughout their lives and and then

retire but rents in the meantime have

climbed to even higher than they are now

and you've retired you haven't got an

income what then happens that that's

well exactly well well exactly but but

this can happen for people who are on

mortgages as well or long-term mortgages

true you know so they can still find

themselves working way past conventional

determination in order to pay off what

advice would you give someone who was

thinking about making a move over the

next 12 months um would you

yeah any sort of top tips um advice that

you you would you you would help them

through where do you foresee

things well kind of all the standard

sensible stuff I think well at least I

hope it's sensible um but it's um you

know do your H workor you know work out

what your what your budget is and and

what your affordability is I think it's

also about setting a sensible criteria

you know so I moved home a few years ago

myself and you know when you just see if

you go into a few estate agent offices

and you pick up a few brochures and you

just begin to think oh God how am I

meant to sift my way through this but if

you set a criteria around you know the

type of property that you're wanting

access to schools or access facilities

amenities what type of the country that

you want to live in you know if you set

a good criteria you can quite narrow you

can narrow down your search yeah um uh

reasonably quickly get good advice you

would expect me to say that but you know

a good Agent or good mortgage broker is

worth the weight and gold this is after

all probably the biggest investment of

your life so um make sure you get good

advice and and and if you don't get a

broker do plenty of Preparatory work on

on mortgages because don't just go to

your you know normal Bank um and take

one of their mortgage products but you

know make the effort to shop around yeah

also say don't rush into it um you know

make sure you get it right and accept

that you're going to have some

disappointment along the way you know

your dream home that you might see might

just be snapped up by someone else you

know a day later while you're trying to

get your mortgage Finance together so

there'll always be some disappointment

on the way and just kind of brace

yourself for that yeah but generally

You' you'd be encouraging them to go

ahead yeah I mean I think don't don't

kind of work yourself into lather about

house price crashes you know we we we

see a lot of clickbait Articles

particularly when

the Market's turning down there's going

to be a house price crash it's going to

fall 30 or 35% and no one wants to you

know catch a falling knife like that um

but the general direction of house

prices over a period of time is upwards

you know even in the current economic

cycle which not been a great one but

houses have held have held up in in in

in new term so don't get yourself walked

up too much about that and think well I

can't move because house places might

fall you know over the longer term um

houses Prov to be a good investment well

we live on an island don't we with an

increasing population and a housing

shortage if looking at the numbers of

people in relation to the numbers of

houses it doesn't actually work um so

upward pressure will will remain until

we build more

houses well yes exactly um and you know

we're not building anything near Target

rate and you know we're one of the

lowest Builders I think of of anywhere

in in the among so ecd countries so um

and you're right you know the demand

pressure keep increasing because you

know migration is going up um and um

there's demand for particular types of

houses where you know there are shortage

of them just now such as family homes um

and that's because people tend to stay

in the homes for longer you know so the

family homes that could be freed up by

by downsizers for example it's not

really happening because the provision

of new homes for downsizers isn't there

do you think I'm putting you on the spot

a bit here but on the topic of

downsizing do you think the powers that

be could come up with a a sort of a

Magic Bullet a tax incentive to

encourage downsizers to to to free up

their their bedrooms if you

like um could could there be something

done with stamp Duty or capital gains

tax or

something yeah absolutely I mean the

best way to get the thing moving would

be um you know a car and stick approach

yeah using both Capital games and stamp

Duty exemption so um you know in in the

US US um on many parts of the US you you

don't pay stamp Duty on your last move

um so that because many of your kind of

um retirement households they might be

um asset rich but but they're income Po

and they don't particularly want to be

paying a you know a significant tax bill

uh as a result of of of selling their

property so yeah there there are ways in

which you know we can use the the tax

and benefit system to I think culle um

you don't want to be forcing people to

do stuff but you can be you can be

kuling people or at least opening up um

uh possibilities that um that they may

not have have considered but we also

need to be building those types of

houses that they can move into um and as

yet you know in Scotland and the wayer

UK uh we haven't really geared up to do

that Dr John why is words indeed really

appreciate your your guidance and your

thoughts um thank you so much for coming

on great to talk to you

[Music]

pleasure