TESLA Stock - Has TSLA Turned Bearish?

TheTeslaGuy
2 Jun 202511:12

Summary

TLDRIn this Tesla update video, the speaker analyzes the stock's performance, discussing the current market trends and potential scenarios. They highlight a brief recovery after a significant drop and explain concerns regarding Teslaโ€™s price movement within a rising channel. Despite some bearish signs, including a loss of key support levels, the speaker remains optimistic about the long-term outlook. They speculate on the possibility of a drop to $300, suggesting it could set up a bullish pattern in the future. The video includes technical analysis, trading strategies, and advice for short-term traders and long-term investors.

Takeaways

  • ๐Ÿ˜€ Tesla closed the day down 1%, recovering from a 3% drop earlier, but still showing signs of concern due to a rising channel.
  • ๐Ÿ˜€ A significant gap up, ideally above 344, is needed to maintain the bullish momentum and avoid falling out of the rising channel.
  • ๐Ÿ˜€ The stock has struggled with resistance around 350, and there's bearish divergence on the daily chart, signaling potential downside.
  • ๐Ÿ˜€ The MACD is trending downward, which indicates weakening momentum despite the recent rally.
  • ๐Ÿ˜€ Short-term downside risk exists unless the stock breaks above the 350-352 range. If this doesn't happen, the bearish outlook remains.
  • ๐Ÿ˜€ The overall long-term outlook for Tesla is still positive, and a potential drop to the 300 level could provide a good buying opportunity for long-term investors.
  • ๐Ÿ˜€ The speaker is confident that Tesla will eventually retest the 300 level to revisit liquidity that was previously broken without a true retest.
  • ๐Ÿ˜€ A possible cup-and-handle pattern or a large bull flag is forming, which could lead to a significant breakout in the future if the stock finds support.
  • ๐Ÿ˜€ The speaker is actively trading Tesla, having exited positions at resistance levels and re-entered near support at 336, seeing limited downside at this level.
  • ๐Ÿ˜€ A bearish weekly candle from the previous week is concerning, and if this week also closes red, it could indicate further downside risk in the near term.
  • ๐Ÿ˜€ The key level to watch is 350-352 for bulls. If Tesla breaks above and holds this range, the bullish thesis will regain strength.

Q & A

  • What is the current situation with Tesla's stock price based on the analysis in the video?

    -Tesla's stock was down by 1% on the day, recovering from a 3% dip earlier. Despite this recovery, there are concerns about its performance in the short term, with challenges such as losing key price levels like $350 and the 8 exponential moving average.

  • What is the significance of a gap up in Tesla's stock price?

    -A gap up is crucial because Tesla is in a rising channel. If the stock doesn't show a significant upward move to start the day, it could fall out of the channel, which could signal further downside. A gap up to at least $344 is considered necessary to maintain the rising channel.

  • What are some of the bearish signs that the video identifies for Tesla's stock?

    -The bearish signs include a bearish divergence on the daily chart, a potential bearish crossover in the MACD, the loss of the 350 level, and Tesla's inability to hold the 8 exponential moving average. These indicators suggest weakness in the stock's short-term momentum.

  • What does the speaker think about Tesla's long-term outlook?

    -The speaker remains optimistic about Tesla's long-term outlook, even if the stock experiences short-term volatility. The speaker suggests that Tesla could potentially retest the $300 range, but views that as a bullish setup for the stock's future growth.

  • What pattern is the speaker anticipating for Tesla's stock, and what does it imply?

    -The speaker anticipates a potential cup and handle or bull flag pattern in the longer term. This would imply a period of consolidation, followed by a breakout to the upside, which could lead to a significant price move higher, potentially reaching the $400s.

  • How does the speaker use Fibonacci levels in their analysis?

    -The speaker references Fibonacci levels to identify key support zones. Specifically, the 0.5 Fibonacci level aligns with a significant support zone, and the 0.618 level suggests that a worst-case scenario for Tesla could see a drop to around $280, but they view this as a good accumulation zone.

  • What are the key resistance and support levels for Tesla's stock in the short term?

    -Key resistance levels are identified around $350 to $352. The speaker suggests that if Tesla fails to break above these levels and hold, it could indicate a bearish trend. Key support levels include the $336 zone, which the speaker considers a solid area to re-enter the stock, and the $300 range for long-term potential.

  • Why does the speaker mention the possibility of a sell-the-news event?

    -The speaker acknowledges that there might be a sell-the-news event related to Tesla's upcoming developments, such as the robo-taxi news. This could cause a sharp decline in the stock price, even if the longer-term outlook remains positive.

  • What does the speaker say about trading Tesla stock in the short term?

    -The speaker is cautious about short-term trading and emphasizes the need for a solid recovery above the $350 level to remain bullish. Despite the short-term concerns, they mention that they are currently long on Tesla stock and have made profitable trades based on their analysis.

  • How does the weekly chart factor into the analysis of Tesla's stock?

    -The weekly chart shows a bearish-looking candle from the previous week, which raises concerns about Tesla's performance if this week also closes negatively. A red close this week would add weight to the bearish outlook and suggest further downside in the coming weeks.

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