Morgan Stanley Turunkan Peringkat Saham Indonesia

METRO TV

11 Jun 202402:54

Summary

TLDRMorgan Stanley downgraded Indonesian stocks to underweight due to concerns over fiscal policy and the strengthening US dollar against the Rupiah. The firm highlighted potential risks from Indonesia's fiscal uncertainty and programs promised by President-elect Prabowo Subianto, which could strain the national budget. The rising US dollar and interest rates also pressure Indonesian companies. This change comes ahead of Federal Reserve and Bank Indonesia's rate decisions. The Indonesian stock index has been volatile, dipping below 6,800 and showing mixed performance amid market uncertainty.

Takeaways

📉 Morgan Stanley downgraded Indonesian stocks to underweight.
🏦 The downgrade is due to concerns about fiscal policy and the strengthening US dollar.
📊 Morgan Stanley highlighted the impact of Indonesia's fiscal policies and the stronger US dollar on investment risks.
💰 Experts, including Daniel Blake, expressed concerns about the uncertainty of Indonesia's future fiscal policies.
🍽️ Programs like free lunch and milk promised by President-elect Prabowo Subianto could significantly burden the state finances.
💵 The strengthening US dollar and high US interest rates are putting pressure on the Indonesian Rupiah.
📉 The downgrading happened ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on June 12 and Bank Indonesia's decision next week.
📉 The Indonesian Stock Exchange Composite Index (IHSG) dropped from a positive territory above 6,947 on June 6 to below 6,947.
📉 The IHSG opened lower this morning, hitting a low of 6,800.206.
📊 As of this morning, the IHSG was relatively flat, still down by 3 points or 0.05% at 6,850.211.
💸 The total transaction value this morning was almost 2.5 trillion Rupiah.
💸 The average daily transaction value of the Indonesian Stock Exchange is currently between 8 and 1 trillion Rupiah.

Q & A

Why did Morgan Stanley downgrade Indonesian stocks to underweight?
-Morgan Stanley downgraded Indonesian stocks to underweight due to concerns about Indonesia's fiscal policies and the strengthening of the US Dollar against the Rupiah.
What are the main factors contributing to the downgrade of Indonesian stocks?
-The main factors are Indonesia's fiscal policies and the strengthening of the US Dollar against the Rupiah.
Who at Morgan Stanley expressed concerns about Indonesia's fiscal policies?
-Daniel Blake, among other strategists at Morgan Stanley, expressed concerns about the uncertainty of Indonesia's fiscal policies.
What specific programs of President-elect Prabowo Subianto are seen as potentially burdensome to the country's finances?
-Programs like the provision of free lunches and milk promised by President-elect Prabowo Subianto are seen as potentially burdensome to the country's finances.
How does the strengthening of the US Dollar impact Indonesian companies?
-The strengthening of the US Dollar, along with high US interest rates, pressures the Rupiah's exchange rate, worsening the situation for Indonesian companies already facing weakened revenue prospects.
What was the state of the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) in early June?
-In early June, the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) was in positive territory above 6,947 on June 6, but later moved into negative territory.
What was the lowest point the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) reached on the morning of the report?
-The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) touched its lowest point of 6,821.06 in the morning.
How much did the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) decline by the morning of the report?
-By the morning of the report, the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) had declined by 3 points or 0.05%, standing at 6,850.211.
What is the average daily transaction value on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX)?
-The average daily transaction value on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) is between 8 to 1 trillion Rupiah.
What upcoming events were expected to impact the financial markets as mentioned in the report?
-The upcoming events expected to impact the financial markets were the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on June 12 and Bank Indonesia's decision in the following week.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Morgan Stanley Downgrades Indonesian Stocks

Morgan Stanley has downgraded Indonesian stocks to 'underweight' due to concerns over fiscal policy and the strengthening US Dollar against the Indonesian Rupiah. In their report, Morgan Stanley highlights the uncertainty in Indonesia's fiscal direction and the potential financial burden of promises made by President-elect Prabowo Subianto, such as free lunch and milk programs. The strong US Dollar and high interest rates in the United States are also putting pressure on the Rupiah, exacerbating the situation for Indonesian companies already facing weakened revenue prospects. This recommendation change comes ahead of key interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve on June 12 and Bank Indonesia next week, adding to market uncertainty. Over the past week, the Indonesian Stock Exchange's Composite Index has declined from positive territory above 6,947 on June 6 to below this level, and as of this morning, it briefly touched 6,800.206, the lowest level of the morning session. The index later stabilized slightly but remained down by 3 points or 0.05% at 6,850.211. As of this morning, transaction values were nearing 2.5 trillion Rupiah, with average daily transactions ranging from 8 to 10 trillion Rupiah.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley is a global financial services firm that provides investment banking, securities, wealth management, and investment management services. In the video, Morgan Stanley downgraded its rating of Indonesian stocks to 'underweight,' indicating a cautious outlook based on two main factors: Indonesia's fiscal policies and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar against the Indonesian rupiah.

💡Underweight

'Underweight' is an investment rating used by analysts to suggest that a particular asset or sector is expected to underperform compared to others. In the context of the video, Morgan Stanley's decision to rate Indonesian stocks as 'underweight' reflects concerns about potential negative impacts on the Indonesian market due to fiscal policies and currency fluctuations.

💡Fiscal Policy

Fiscal policy refers to government strategies regarding taxation and spending to influence economic conditions. The video highlights concerns about Indonesia's fiscal policies, including initiatives like free school meals and milk promised by President-elect Prabowo Subianto, which could significantly strain the nation's finances.

💡USD/IDR Exchange Rate

The USD/IDR exchange rate measures the value of the Indonesian rupiah relative to the U.S. dollar. The video's concern revolves around the strengthening U.S. dollar, which puts pressure on the rupiah and complicates financial conditions for Indonesian businesses, particularly those with revenues in rupiah but expenses in dollars.

💡Investment Risk

Investment risk refers to the potential for losing financial value in an investment. Morgan Stanley's downgrade cites increased investment risk in Indonesia due to fiscal uncertainty and currency volatility, which create an unpredictable environment for investors.

💡Indonesian Stock Market

The Indonesian Stock Market, represented by the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG), reflects the performance of publicly traded companies in Indonesia. The video discusses how the index has been experiencing fluctuations and uncertainty, influenced by domestic fiscal policies and external economic pressures.

💡Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG)

The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) is the primary stock market index in Indonesia, tracking the performance of all listed companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The video mentions how the IHSG has moved from positive to negative territory, reflecting broader market concerns and volatility.

💡Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve, often referred to as the Fed, is the central banking system of the United States responsible for setting monetary policy, including interest rates. The video's reference to upcoming decisions by the Fed underscores the global impact of U.S. monetary policy on other economies, including Indonesia's.

💡Bank Indonesia

Bank Indonesia is the central bank of Indonesia, which oversees monetary policy and financial stability in the country. The video mentions its upcoming decision on interest rates, which is crucial for addressing inflation and currency stability amid current economic challenges.

💡Prabowo Subianto

Prabowo Subianto is the president-elect of Indonesia, known for his campaign promises including social welfare programs like free school meals and milk. The video highlights concerns about how these programs could significantly impact Indonesia's fiscal stability if they are implemented without adequate funding.

Highlights

Morgan Stanley downgrades Indonesia's stock rating to underweight due to fiscal policy concerns and USD strength.

Indonesian fiscal policy and USD strength pose risks to stock investments, according to Morgan Stanley.

Morgan Stanley predicts uncertainty for Indonesia's composite stock index.

Experts, including Daniel Blake, express concerns over Indonesia's future fiscal policy direction.

Programs like free lunch and milk promised by President-elect Prabowo Subianto could significantly burden national finances.

The strengthening USD and high US interest rates put pressure on the Rupiah, worsening the situation for Indonesian companies.

Morgan Stanley's rating change comes ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on June 12 and Bank Indonesia's decision next week.

Uncertainty in the market is reinforced by upcoming decisions from the Federal Reserve and Bank Indonesia.

Within a week, the Jakarta Composite Index fell from above 6,947 on June 6 to below 6,947.

On the morning of the report, the Jakarta Composite Index briefly opened lower, hitting 6,826.21, the lowest level of the morning.

By mid-morning, the Jakarta Composite Index had slightly recovered but remained down by 3 points or 0.05% at 6,850.211.

Morning transaction values reached nearly 2.5 trillion Rupiah.

The average daily transaction value on the Indonesia Stock Exchange is currently between 8 and 10 trillion Rupiah.

Morgan Stanley's concerns highlight the impact of fiscal policy and currency strength on market performance.

The market is experiencing heightened volatility and uncertainty due to both local and international fiscal decisions.