Morgan Stanley Turunkan Peringkat Saham RI, Apa Efeknya?

Summary

Morgan Stanley has downgraded its rating for Indonesian stocks to 'underweight' due to fiscal policy concerns and the strengthening of the US dollar against the Rupiah. This decision has introduced investment risks and uncertainty in the Indonesian stock market index. The bank's strategist, including Daniel, acknowledges the uncertainty and the potential financial burden of promised programs like free lunches and milk by the elected president, Prabowo Subianto. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Bank Indonesia's upcoming decision have intensified market uncertainty. Despite this, the domestic investor sentiment remains unaffected, and the market shows resilience with the potential for capital gains. The World Bank has upgraded Indonesia's economic growth projections, indicating a positive outlook for corporate earnings and a possible increase in the stock index by year-end.

Takeaways

• 📉 Morgan Stanley has downgraded its rating for Indonesian stocks to 'underweight' due to concerns over fiscal policy and the strengthening US dollar against the Rupiah.
• 💼 The decision by Morgan Stanley is influenced by the potential impact of Indonesia's fiscal policy and the strengthening of the US dollar on investment in Indonesian shares.
• 🏦 The report from Morgan Stanley highlights the risks to investments due to the fiscal policy and the strengthening of the US dollar, which could affect the performance of the Indonesian stock market index.
• 🗣️ Daniel from Morgan Stanley expresses uncertainty about the direction of Indonesia's fiscal policy in the future, including programs promised by the president-elect, such as free lunches and milk, which could significantly burden the national finances.
• 💲 The strengthening of the US dollar and high US interest rates are putting pressure on the Rupiah, exacerbating the situation for Indonesian companies that are already facing revenue prospects decline.
• 📈 The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on June 12th and the upcoming decision by the Bank of Indonesia next week are intensifying market uncertainty.
• 🌐 The impact of Morgan Stanley's downgrade on the investment climate and the outlook for Indonesian stocks is a topic of discussion, with the potential for dynamic changes in market sentiment.
• 📊 Despite the downgrade, the speaker, Josua from Bank Permata, believes that the performance of corporate earnings and the potential upgrade by the World Bank for Indonesia's economic growth indicate positive prospects for the stock market.
• 📈 The speaker suggests that the market may still have potential for growth, with expectations that the Federal Reserve's policy will become more accommodative in the coming year, which could support the Indonesian stock market.
• 🤔 The transcript reflects a nuanced view of the market, acknowledging the influence of global financial institutions like Morgan Stanley but also considering the resilience and potential of the Indonesian economy and stock market.
• 🔮 Looking forward, the speaker forecasts a potential upward movement in the stock market index, possibly reaching 7,000 by the end of the year, based on economic projections and market resilience.

Q & A

Why did Morgan Stanley downgrade the Indonesian stock market to 'underweight'?

Morgan Stanley downgraded the Indonesian stock market to 'underweight' due to concerns over two main factors: fiscal policy and the strengthening of the US dollar against the Rupiah.

What are the potential risks to investment in Indonesian stocks according to Morgan Stanley's report?

The report suggests that Indonesia's fiscal policy and the strengthening of the US dollar pose risks to investment in Indonesian stocks, creating uncertainty in the market.

What is the potential impact of President-elect Prabowo Subianto's promised programs on the national finances?

The promised programs such as free lunch and milk could potentially burden the national finances significantly, adding to the fiscal concerns.

How does the strengthening of the US dollar and high US interest rates affect the Indonesian Rupiah?

The strengthening of the US dollar and high US interest rates put pressure on the Rupiah's exchange rate, exacerbating the situation for Indonesian companies that are already facing revenue prospects decline.

What was the decision of the Federal Reserve on June 12th that could affect the Indonesian financial market?

The decision of the Federal Reserve on interest rates on June 12th could have a significant impact on the Indonesian financial market, adding to the existing uncertainty.

What is the meaning of 'underweight' in the context of Morgan Stanley's recommendation for the Indonesian stock market?

In the context of investment recommendations, 'underweight' means that Morgan Stanley suggests reducing the proportion of Indonesian stocks in their portfolio, replacing them with stocks from other countries that have been upgraded to 'overweight'.

How does the domestic investor's perspective differ from Morgan Stanley's view on the Indonesian stock market?

Domestic investors might see the downgrade as an opportunity for capital gains, taking advantage of market dynamics that are not necessarily aligned with foreign investors' sentiments.

What is the general impact of Morgan Stanley's rating changes on the Bursa Efek Indonesia (Indonesian Stock Exchange)?

Morgan Stanley's rating changes, especially during portfolio rebalancing, can significantly affect the Bursa Efek Indonesia as it influences the direction of the market.

What is the current status of the IHSG (Indonesian Stock Exchange Composite Index) compared to the beginning of 2024?

The IHSG started the year 2024 around the 7,300 level and is currently at the 6,800 level, indicating a decrease year to date.

What are the expectations for the IHSG's performance by the end of 2024?

The expectations are that the IHSG will be influenced by corporate earnings and the World Bank's recent upgrade of Indonesia's economic growth projection for the year, suggesting potential for an increase in corporate earnings.

What is the potential direction of the IHSG according to the economic growth projections and market expectations?

The potential direction of the IHSG is towards 7,000 by the end of the year, considering the resilient economic growth projections and the expectation of a more open stance from the Federal Reserve in the following year.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Morgan Stanley Downgrades Indonesian Stock to Underweight

Morgan Stanley has downgraded Indonesian stocks to 'underweight' due to concerns over fiscal policy and the strengthening of the US dollar against the Rupiah. The firm's note highlights the impact of Indonesia's fiscal policy and the US dollar's appreciation on investment risks. The uncertainty surrounding the prediction of the Indonesian stock market index is causing experts to question the future of the country's stock prospects. Morgan Stanley's strategy, including comments from strategist Daniel, reflects a cautious approach towards the uncertainty, particularly regarding Indonesia's fiscal policy in the upcoming period. Programs like free lunches and milk promised by the elected president, Prabowo Subianto, are seen as potentially burdening the national finances significantly. Moreover, the US dollar's appreciation and high US interest rates are exerting pressure on the Rupiah's exchange rate, worsening the situation for Indonesian companies that are already experiencing a decline in revenue prospects. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in June and the upcoming decision by the Bank of Indonesia are intensifying market uncertainty.

05:00

🤔 Domestic Investors' Response to Underweight Rating

Despite Morgan Stanley's 'underweight' rating for Indonesian stocks, domestic investors may not be overly concerned by the change in the investment landscape. Recent trends show that local investors have not been significantly swayed by foreign investor shifts. Instead, they may seize the opportunity to capitalize on potential capital gains. The dynamic nature of such ratings was evident during the early stages of the pandemic in 2020 when Morgan Stanley upgraded its rating for Indonesian stocks. The current situation is also subject to change based on assumptions and there is no definitive financial assurance yet. The discussion also touched upon the performance of the stock market index, which has seen a decline from the beginning of the year but remains relatively higher compared to the same period last year. The World Bank's recent upgrade to Indonesia's economic growth projection for this year, despite being flat, indicates potential for corporate earnings improvement. Sectoral analysis of companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) shows that their performance has been generally good, with decent profit margins and fundamental strength. This suggests a positive momentum for investors to re-enter the market, particularly for stocks with strong fundamentals. The sentiment from Morgan Stanley is not expected to significantly influence the projection or direction of the IHSG in the future.

Keywords

💡Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley is a leading global financial services firm providing investment banking, securities, investment management, and wealth management services. In the video's context, Morgan Stanley's decision to downgrade the Indonesian stock market to 'underweight' is a significant financial move that reflects their assessment of the market's potential. The script mentions this downgrade as a key factor affecting investor sentiment and the Indonesian stock market's future prospects.

💡Underweight

In investment terms, 'underweight' refers to a position where the proportion of a particular asset or market in a portfolio is lower than its representation in the benchmark index. The script discusses Morgan Stanley's recommendation to have an underweight position in Indonesian stocks, indicating a cautious stance on the market's performance due to perceived risks.

💡Fiscal Policy

Fiscal policy involves government decisions on spending and taxation to influence economic activity. The script highlights concerns about Indonesia's fiscal policy, suggesting that it may pose risks to investments, particularly in the context of the strengthening US dollar and its impact on the Rupiah's value.

💡US Dollar

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States and is the world's primary reserve currency. The script discusses the strengthening of the US dollar in relation to the Indonesian Rupiah, which can affect the cost of imports and the profitability of Indonesian companies with foreign debt.

💡Rupiah

The Rupiah is the official currency of Indonesia. The script mentions the Rupiah in the context of its depreciation against the US dollar, which can have significant implications for Indonesia's economy, particularly for companies that rely on imported goods or have foreign currency debt.

💡Investor Sentiment

Investor sentiment refers to the overall attitude or mood of investors toward the market or a particular security. The script discusses how Morgan Stanley's downgrade of Indonesian stocks to 'underweight' could affect investor sentiment and potentially lead to uncertainty in the market.

💡Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve, often referred to as the Fed, is the central banking system of the United States. The script refers to the Fed's interest rate decisions, which can have a significant impact on global financial markets, including the Indonesian stock market and currency.

💡Bank of Indonesia

The Bank of Indonesia is the central bank of Indonesia, responsible for monetary policy and financial system stability. The script mentions the bank's upcoming decisions, which could further intensify market uncertainty and affect the Indonesian Rupiah's value.

💡Interest Rates

Interest rates are the cost of borrowing money and are a key tool used by central banks to control inflation and stabilize currency values. The script discusses how decisions on interest rates by the Federal Reserve and Bank of Indonesia can influence the Indonesian economy and financial markets.

💡Corporate Earnings

Corporate earnings refer to the profits a company generates, which are a critical factor in determining a company's stock price. The script suggests that the performance of Indonesian companies, as reflected in their earnings, will significantly influence the direction of the stock market index.

💡Economic Growth

Economic growth is the increase in the production of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. The script mentions projections for Indonesia's economic growth, which are important for understanding the potential for corporate earnings and overall market performance.

💡Pertumbuhan Ekonomi

This Indonesian term translates to 'economic growth' in English. The script discusses projections for Indonesia's economic growth, which is a key indicator of the health of the economy and can influence investor decisions and market performance.

Highlights

Morgan Stanley downgrades Indonesia's stock rating to underweight due to fiscal policy and the strengthening of the US dollar.

The fiscal policy of Indonesia and the strengthening of the US dollar pose risks to investment in Indonesian stocks.

Morgan Stanley's strategy includes Daniel, who expresses uncertainty about the direction of Indonesia's fiscal policy in the future.

Programs such as free lunches and milk promised by the elected president, Prabowo Subianto, are considered potentially significant financial burdens.

The appreciation of the US dollar and high US interest rates put pressure on the Rupiah, exacerbating the situation for Indonesian companies.

The decision of the Federal Reserve on June 12th and the upcoming decision by Bank Indonesia increase market uncertainty.

The impact of Morgan Stanley's downgrade on the investment climate and the prospects of Indonesian stocks is uncertain.

Josua, the head economist of Bank Permata, discusses the influence of Morgan Stanley's decision on the stock market.

Morgan Stanley also downgraded Mexico's stock rating, drawing a connection between political stability and economic policy.

The government's upcoming spending programs must be realistic and approved by the legislative body.

The Federal Reserve's decision has a more significant impact on the financial market than Morgan Stanley's rating change.

The meaning of 'underweight' implies that Morgan Stanley will reduce the weight of Indonesian stocks in their portfolio.

Domestic investors may take advantage of the situation for potential capital gains.

Morgan Stanley's rating changes are dynamic and can change direction based on new information.

The Indonesian stock index has declined from the beginning of the year, with potential for recovery.

Corporate earnings and economic growth projections influence the potential of the stock index.

The World Bank has upgraded Indonesia's economic growth projection for this year, indicating potential for corporate earnings.

Fundamental analysis of Indonesian companies shows good performance, offering a good opportunity for investors.

Despite Morgan Stanley's sentiment, the fundamental performance of companies may drive the stock index upwards.

The head economist predicts the stock index could reach 7,000 by the end of the year, considering economic resilience and potential Federal Reserve policy changes.

Transcripts

Morgan Stanley menurunkan peringkat

saham Indonesia menjadi underweight

karena pertimbangan dua faktor utama

yaitu kebijakan fiskal dan penguatan

nilai tukar dolar Amerika terhadap nilai

tukar Rupiah Morgan Stanley dalam

catatannya menyampaikan kebijakan fiskal

Indonesia dan penguatan Dolar Amerika

menimbulkan risiko terhadap investasi

saham hal ini membuat prediksi indeks

harga saham gabungan bursef Indonesia

diliputi ketidakpastian para ahli

strategi Morgan Stanley termasuk Daniel

menyatakan ka m terhadap ketidakpastian

arah kebijakan fiskal Indonesia di masa

mendatang program-program seperti

pemberian makan siang dan susu gratis

yang dijanjikan presiden terpilih

Prabowo Subianto dinilai berpotensi

membebani keuangan negara secara

signifikan Selain itu menguatnya nilai

tukar dolar Amerika dan tingginya suku

bunga Amerika Serikat juga memberikan

tekanan kepada nilai tukar Rupiah yang

memperparah situasi bagi

perusahaan-perusahaan di Indonesia yang

sudah mengalamielemahan prospek

pendapatan perahan rekendas ini

terjadijel keputusan suku bunga oleh

Federal Reserve pada 12 Juni yang lalu

dan keputusan Bank Indonesia pekan depan

yang semakin mempertegas ketidakpastian

di

pasar apa sebetulnya dampak penurunan

peringkat saham pada iklim investasi dan

prospek saham Indonesia ke depan kita

akan bertanya bersama lewat sambungan

Zoom kepala ekonom Bank Permata

jos Pak Josua Selamat pagi Selamat pagi

bang Leo ya kita e tadi malam mendapat

informasi keputusan Bank Sentral Amerika

Serikat setelah kemarin kita mendapat

informasi Morgan Stanley salah satu nama

yang berpengaruh di pasar keuangan

Global memberikan rekomendasi

underweight bagi bursa saham Indonesia

Kalau Anda lihat sebetulnya yang mana

yang sebetulnya akan lebih aruh kepada e

prospek saham-saham ataupun Bursa Efek

Indonesia Pak joswa Ya saya pikir memang

keputusan ataupun strategist dari Morgan

Stanley menurunkan rating saham

Indonesia menjadi underwe ini Tentunya

beralasan dan kita menghormati itu semua

Meskipun memang kita perlu

mempertanyakan ya karena e kalau kita

bicara terkait dengan fiskal semestinya

yang di lebih dulu adalah ee obligasinya

ya Jadi ini yang menarik adalah Justru

malah saham-saham ee Indonesia yang

sudah di underwe diturunkan menjadi and

Rid dan ini pun juga kalau kita lihat

bamaan dalam Reportnya eh Morgan Seleni

juga menurunkan peringkat dari meksico

yang memang kalau kita lihat menang

merahnya dua negara ini Indonesia dan

Meksiko memang ee saat ini eh terkait

dengan politik ya terkait dengan apakah

EE apa kestabilan politik dan juga

bagaimana kebijakan ekonomi pada

pemerintahan Berikutnya ini akan cukup

berpengaruh dan kalau kita melihat

sekali lagi secara umum ee dari siklus

politik dan juga siklus apbnnya ee

tentunya sekalipun memang ada agenda

besar dari pemerintah berikutnya namun

ee pemerintah pun juga harus realistis

karena pada akhirnya pemerintah dalam

mengusulkan APBN akan ee mengusulkannya

kepada DPR ya sehingga saya tetap

melihat bahwa ee sekalipun memang ada

program-program belanja yang cukup besar

namun pada akhirnya pemerintah akan

harus realistis dan terkait dengan

pertanyaan tadi saya melihat bahwa

kebijakan ee keputusan Fed di rapat fmc

tadi malam ini berdampak lebih besar ya

pada pasar keuangan kita e Karena pada

hari ini sendiri eh ihsg juga dibuka

menguat bersama e pasar busara lainnya

regional dan juga rupiah pun juga

cenderung menguat dan pasar obligasi pun

juga menguat jadi memang kita melihat

bahwa secara umum ee lebih lebih

berdampak keputusan dari rapat fmc tadi

malam untuk investor eh saham investor

pasar modal memang Morgan Stanley eh

sering juga membuat e perubahan arah

Pasar ya Pak Josua ya kalau kita ingat

ada Morgan Stanley Capital indexs setiap

kali ada rebalancing ada perubahan

portofolio itu pasti berdampak ke Bursa

Efek Indonesia tapi eh diberikan

gambaran singkat saja mungkin pak Josua

apa sebetulnya arti underweight karena

kita juga tahu ada overweight ada

neutral ini artinya seberapa ragu

sebetulnya Morgan Stanley kepada prospek

investasi khususnya saham dan juga

obligasi mungkin di Indonesia ya Jadi

kalau kita lihat di saat bersamaan ee

makna dari underweight itu artinya e

bobot saham-saham Indonesia eh yang

masuk dalam portfolionya morggen Stanley

ini akan mungkin akan berkurang ya dan

akan tergantikan oleh saham-saham negara

lain yang di-upgrade ya menjadi di

overweight ya Sehingga itu ee apa

namanya makna dari underweight namun ya

kalau kita lihat dari sisi ee dampaknya

buat investor e domestik justru ya tadi

ya sekalipun ee kalau kita lihat trennya

belakangan ini kan sebenarnya ee

investor domestik ataupun lokal ini

tidak terlalu latah ya apa memang ada

perubahan dari ee perubahan peta dari ee

apa namanya dari investor asingnya

Justru malah investor lokalnya ataupun

domestiknya bisa mengambil ee momentum

ya untuk untuk mendapatkan Capital Gain

di sana dan kembali lagi karena ini

adalah hal yang dinamis ya Jadi kalau

kita melihat juga pada saat ee apa

namanya eh awal pandemi yang lalu pun

juga eh Morgan juga cukup menarik bahwa

sebelum pandem masih pandemi berlangsung

di tahun 2020 eh Morgan S pun juga

melakukan rating upgrade ya Eh terhadap

saham Indonesia jadi saya pikir ini akan

bersifat dinamis dan kembali lagi ee ya

ini hanya berdasarkan asumsi saja ya

karena belum ada ee apa

namanyauangan yang cukup yang cukup

meyakinkan seperti itu kalau bicara

indeks harga saham gabungan sendiri Eh

Pak Josua kalau kita lihat dari Januari

tahun ini itu ada di level sekitar

7.300-an dan sekarang kita melihat

indeks itu di

6.800-an kalau kita bicara year to date

kalau lihat eh 1 tahun yang lalu persis

di Juni itu kurang lebih ada di

6.750-an jadi J kalau kita pakai

perspektif 1 tahun sebetulnya indeks

sekarang ada di relatif lebih tinggi

tapi kalau dari awal tahun ini indeks

sekarang lebih rendah dibandingkan

pembukaan Di Januari 2024 prospeknya

seperti apa anda lihat Eh Pak Josua

Katakanlah sampai akhir tahun ini ya

Jadi kalau kita ee mengacu kepada

Bagaimana potensi dari indeks harga

saham ini akan sangat dipengaruhi juga

oleh kinerja ataupun corporate earnings

ya dari saham-saham ataupun emit yang

ada di dalamnya dan kalau kita melihat

dari proyeksi yang baru saja kemarin

juga Bank Dunia malah justru mengupgrade

ya pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia di

tahun ini meskipun flat ya tahun ini dan

tahun depan 5% namun ini menunjukkan

bahwa ada sebenarnya ada potensiorate

peningkatan corporate lenings dan kalau

kita misalkan kita mengevaluasi dari

secara sektoral dari e emiten-emiten

yang ada di ihsg secara umum memang

kinerjanya masih cukup baik ya kalau

kita melihat dari seperting margin lalu

juga dari sisi kinerja lainnya ya E

meskipun memang sales agak menurun untuk

beberapa sektor namun dari sisi

fundamental Sebenarnya masih menunjukkan

kinerja yang cukup baik jadi artinya ee

kalau kita mengacu lagi kepada ee

analisis fundamental mestinya ini

menjadi momentum cukup baik ya untuk ee

investor untuk masuk lagi kepada

saham-saham yang memang fundamentalnya

baik sehingga diharapkan itu tidak e apa

sentimen dari Morgan s itu tidak akan

berpengaruh banyak ya kepada e proyeksi

ataupun arah dari ihg ke depannya

terakhir singkat saja bisa ke 7.000 lagi

tidak indeksnya Pak Josua Ya saya pikir

dengan tadi dengan pertumbuhan proyeksi

pertumbuhan ekonomi tahun ini dan tahun

depan pun juga setidaknya tetap resilen

5% ee harapan Kami memang dan juga ini

dengan ekspektasi bahwa Fed ruang

penurunannya cukup terbuka lebih terbuka

lagi di Tahun depan saya pikir ini akan

membuat ee potensi ee apa penguatan dari

ihsg dan juga bersama dengan pasar

obligasi dan juga rupiah ini cukup

terbuka sehingga kami tetap melihat arah

ee ke apa ee akan mengarah kepada 7.000

setidaknya sampai dengan akhir tahun ini

Terima kasih pencerahan yang Anda

berikan kepala ekonom Bank Permata Josua

pardd kepada kami Selamat pagi Pak Josua

jelajahi cara baru mendapatkan informasi

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