What next for the global economy? Interview with IMF Research Director Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

Summary

このビデオスクリプトでは、グローバル経済の回復力が注目されています。2024年の世界成長率は3.2％と、前年並みで安定しています。米国や中国、EUの経済成長予測について議論され、特に米国では供給サイドと需要サイドの両方が良い発展を示しています。しかし、中国は不動産市場の弱さから影響を受け、EUはエネルギー価格ショックからの回復を期待しています。また、AIの進展が先進国60％の労働者に影響を与えるとされ、その影響はポジティブでもネガティブでもありえます。最後に、グローバルな多国間システムの緩やかさが懸念材料となっており、貿易制限措置の増加が国際協力の精神を損なう可能性があると指摘されています。

Takeaways

• 🌐 グローバル経済は予想された大規模な不景気から回復しており、今年の成長率は3％を超えると予想されています。
• 📈 2023年の世界経済成長は3.2％と、前年と同程度の安定した成長を示しており、過去の成長率と比較しては控えめです。
• 🛠️ サプライチェーンの緩和と労働力の増加が経済活動を支えており、特にアメリカでは消費者による需要が強いです。
• 🌱 移民が労働力の増加に寄与しており、需要が強い市場においてはインフレーション圧力を和らげる要因となっています。
• 🇺🇸 アメリカ経済は供給面と需要面の両方で好調で、過剰な貯蓄と公的な支出が経済を支えています。
• 🇨🇳 中国経済は不動産市場の弱さから影響を受けており、消費者信頼と家屋価格に影響を及ぼしています。
• 🇪🇺 ユーロ圏はエネルギー価格の高騰からの回復を期待しており、金融政策の緩和が需要を支えるでしょう。
• 🇮🇳 インド経済は非常に強い成長を続けており、国内の需要と投資がその要因とされています。
• 🔄 世界経済の貿易緊張が供給チェーンの再編成につながり、一部の国々はその影響を受けるでしょう。
• 💡 AIの進展は先進国における労働市場に影響を与え、約60％の労働者がポジティブまたはネガティブな影響を受けるでしょう。
• 🌌 世界経済のグローバルな協力が減退していることが懸念されており、貿易制限措置の増加がその一例です。

Q & A

グローバル経済が予想された大恐慌から回復した理由は何ですか？

供給サイドの緩和、サプライチェーンの制限の緩和、労働力の大幅な増加、特に外国人労働者によるもの、そして米国の消費者需求の強さなどが経済活動を支えています。

米国経済の強さはどのように供給サイドと需要サイドの両方から影響を受けていますか？

供給サイドでは労働力の拡大と生産性の高い成長、投資の増加があります。需要サイドでは、家計の余裕と公的な支出が経済を支えています。

移民が経済への貢献をどのようにして示しているのですか？

移民は労働力の増加に寄与しており、需要が強くなることでインフレーション圧力を和らげ、労働市場の緊張を緩和しています。

2025年には米国と中国の経済成長が減速する理由は何ですか？

米国では需要が強すぎるため、金融政策が引き締まり、労働市場が冷え込んでいくでしょう。中国では不動産市場の弱さと消費者信頼の低下が影響しています。

欧州連合が回復する見込みの理由は何ですか？

エネルギー価格のショックから回復しており、金融政策が緩和されることで金融条件が改善し、賃金成長が続くことで家計の購買力が回復するでしょう。

インド経済が強い成長を続ける背景には何がありますか？

投資の増加、特に公的投資、強力な国内需要、および貿易緊張が供給チェーンの再編成をもたらし、インドのような第三国に利益をもたらしていることが挙げられます。

ウクライナと中東の紛争が経済予測に与える影響はどの程度ですか？

地政学的緊張がエスカレートし、エネルギー価格が上昇し、海上輸送が妨害されると、世界中のインフレーションが高まり、中央銀行が金融政策を引き締めることになるでしょう。

ロシア経済が予想される成長減速は戦争の終結にどのように関連していますか？

ロシア経済は現在、過剰な刺激を受けており、その影響が消えるにつれて成長は減速すると予想されていますが、戦争の終結と直接的な関連性は示されていません。

人工知能（AI）が先進国で60％の労働者に与える影響とはどのようなものですか？

AIは特定の職種の労働者に対して、自動化によって仕事が置き換えられる可能性がある一方で、他の職種ではAIを活用して業務が向上する可能性があります。

AIの導入によって最も利益を得るであろうセクターは何ですか？

テクノロジーや金融業界はAIを活用して業務を向上させ、より大きな利益を得る可能性が高いと考えられています。

IMFが懸念しているグローバルなマルチラテラルシステムの緩みとは何ですか？

貿易制限措置の増加、産業政策の保護主義的要素、そしてそれに伴う貿易と協力の精神の低下が、グローバルな協力体制を損なう懸念材料となっています。

Outlines

00:00

🌐 グローバル経済の回復と成長予測

2024年のグローバル経済は予想外の回復力を見せており、成長率は3.2％と前年と同じ水準にある。供給サイドの緩和と労働力の拡大が経済活動を支えており、特にアメリカの消費者市場は強い。しかし、2025年には米中両国の経済成長が減速する見通しで、ユーロ圏は回復を期待している。

05:00

🏭 産業の弱さとユーロ圏の回復

中国の不動産市場の弱さと新着工数の減少が消費者信頼と国内需要に影響を与えており、中国経済の成長は4.6％減速する見込み。一方、ユーロ圏はエネルギー価格の高騰からの回復を期待しており、賃金成長により家計の購買力が回復している。

10:01

📈 開発途上国の成長と貿易緊張

開発途上国ではインドが特に強い成長を続けており、2023年には7.8％の成長率を記録。貿易緊張が供給チェーンの再編成につながり、一部の国々はこの変化を利用して経済を強化している。

15:04

🛑 地政学的緊張と経済への影響

ウクライナと中東の紛争は経済予測に影響を与えており、特にエネルギー価格の高騰と輸送の混乱が懸念されている。もし地政学的緊張が高まる場合、世界経済全体のインフレーションを引き起こし、中央銀行による金融政策の引き締めが経済活動を抑制する可能性がある。

🤖 AIの進展と労働市場への影響

先進国ではAIの進展により約60％の労働者が影響を受け、その半分がポジティブな方向で、残りはネガティブな方向である。専門サービスや管理職種はAIによって能力が高まり、一方、例のごとくの仕事はAIによって置き換えられる可能性がある。

🌐 グローバル協力の減退と経済への影響

IMFはグローバルな多国間システムの緩むことに対する懸念を表明しており、貿易制限措置の増加や産業政策の保護主義的な側面が懸念されている。これにより、気候変動、AIのグローバルな影響、デジタル化、低所得国の問題解決など、重要な課題に対処するのが難しくなる恐れがある。

Keywords

💡グローバル経済

グローバル経済とは、世界各国の経済活動が相互に関連し、影響を与え合う経済全体のことを指します。このビデオでは、世界経済の成長が予測される3％を超える安定した成長を示しており、これがビデオの中心的なテーマの一つです。

💡供給サイド

供給サイドとは、経済において生産活動や供給網の側面を指し、ビデオでは供給網の緩和や供給の拡大が経済成長に寄与していると説明されています。

💡労働力参加率

労働力参加率は、労働年齢人口のうち、労働市場に参加している割合を指します。ビデオでは、労働力参加率の高まりが経済活動を支えていると強調されています。

💡インフレ

インフレとは、物価の総じる上昇を意味します。ビデオでは、経済成長とインフレの関係、特にアメリカ経済において需要の強さとインフレ圧力との関連について議論されています。

💡移民

移民は、外国から移住する人々を指し、ビデオでは移民が労働力の増加に寄与し、経済成長を促進する要因の一つとされています。

💡米国経済

米国経済は、ビデオの中では、供給サイドと需要サイドの両方で好調であり、経済成長の要因として特に強調されています。

💡中国経済

中国経済は、ビデオ内で不動産市場の弱さと消費者信頼の低下が指摘され、成長の減速要因として取り上げられています。

💡ユーロ圏

ユーロ圏は、ユーロ通貨を使用する欧州諸国を指し、ビデオではエネルギー価格の高騰からの回復と金融政策の緩和が、経済成長の見込みとされています。

💡AI（人工知能）

AIは、機械が人間の知能的な機能を模倣する技術を指し、ビデオでは、高度な経済の労働者のうち60％がAIの発展に影響を受けると報告されています。

💡地球規模の協力

地球規模の協力とは、世界各国が協力して解決すべき課題に対する取り組みを指します。ビデオでは、地球規模の協力が気候変動やデジタル化、低所得国の問題解決に不可欠であると語られています。

Highlights

Global growth is expected to remain steady at over 3% this year, with no signs of a Great Recession.

Resilient global economy with a predicted growth of 3.2% for this year and next year, similar to the previous year.

Good news on the supply side with the unwinding of supply frictions and restrictions in supply chains.

Strong increase in labor force participation and labor supply expansion supporting economic activity.

US consumer strength has been a significant driver of economic activity.

Migration has contributed to economic resilience by increasing the labor supply and cooling off labor markets without causing a recession.

US and Chinese economies are forecast to slow down in 2025, while the Euro zone expects a recovery.

US growth is expected to slow due to tight monetary policy and cooling labor markets.

Chinese economy's weakness stems from a weak property sector affecting consumer confidence and domestic demand.

Euro area is recovering from an energy price shock, with easing monetary policy expected to boost demand.

India's economy is expected to continue strong growth, with revised growth numbers upwards to 7.8% for the last fiscal year.

Trade tensions and reconfiguration of supply chains may benefit third countries like Vietnam or Mexico.

Geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, pose downside risks to the global economy.

Russia's economy has shown resilience with growth projections marked up to 3.2% for 2024.

60% of workers in advanced economies will be affected by AI, with about half experiencing positive and half negative impacts.

AI's impact on labor markets varies by occupation, with professional and managerial positions potentially enhanced, and clerical tasks substituted.

Tech and finance sectors may benefit most from AI, while sectors with routine clerical tasks may be negatively impacted.

The slow unraveling of the global multilateral system and geoeconomic fragmentation pose significant threats to global cooperation and economic efficiency.

Transcripts

yes so Mr gcha thank you very much for

making time for de in these busy weeks

of the year uh let's talk about the good

news first um the Great Recession some

had been warning of doesn't seem to

really have materialized uh Global

growth is expected uh to remain steady

at over 3% this year uh how do you uh

explain this kind of surprising

resilience well we had yes we had a very

resilient global economy we're

predicting Global growth at 3.2% this

year and next year and that's the same

growth number as last year 2023 so it's

kind of a steady growth not supercharged

I mean the historical growth rate that

we like to point to is what we had

between 201 2019 that was more like

3.8% so it's modest but very far from a

global recession or anything that may

have been predicted uh at the time of

the uh coming out of the Pand mic and

inflation surge so what explains it well

we've had uh good news on the supply

side so unwinding of Supply uh frictions

uh restrictions in Supply chains and

we've had also very good news on uh the

labor side uh a very uh strong increase

in labor force participation overall

labor supply has expanded and many

countries that has provided a lot of

support for economic activity uh going

forward and then some countries also had

very strong demand side the US in

particular maybe will get into that and

so uh the strength of the US uh consumer

has been has been quite strong in the

last last year so we can go there right

away um uh maybe you can talk a little

bit about this strength here in the

United

States yes so what we had in the US is

we had both positive developments on the

supply side and on the demand side so on

the supply side as I've mentioned

already labor supplies expanded uh

increase in labor force overall with a

significant component coming from

foreign born workers that's been kind of

the little bit of the hidden secret

behind some of these resilience we've

seen that in the US we see this in

Canada we see this in the UK we see this

in other uh uh European economies as

well strong labor Supply strong

productivity growth in the case of the

US actually it's been US economy has

been doing very well on that front quite

a bit of investment as well so these are

kind of on the supply side and then on

the demand side households with excess

savings a lot of public spending and so

you had also a very resilient economy on

the demand side on balance the US

economy is probably one where the demand

forces are having a little bit of the

advantage right now and that's why we

are seeing maybe a little bit of a slow

down or even a plateau in terms of the

path of this inflation because if demand

becomes really strong then that fuels

inflation pressures and that's kind of

where we are right now so when I

understand you're right migration is

part of the success story then here in

in this country it has helped in two in

two ways it has helped because you know

of course more workers when there is a

strong demand for labor and and as the

economies reopened uh people had excess

savings they wanted to go out and

consume uh and so there was strong

demand and businesses wanted to hire and

in the context in which there would have

been limited labor Supply then that

would have fed into even stronger

inflation pressures wage pressures tight

labor markets so the the increase in

labor Supply as contributed to cool off

the labor market without causing a

recession so this is kind of this uh

Immaculate disinflation that people are

talking about well it turns out that one

of the drivers may have been uh the

increase in labor Supply so I want to

zero in in the Outlook uh for three

economies in particular the US China and

the EU because we see some really

interesting differences um both us uh

and the Chinese economies are forecast

to slow down in 2025 while the Euro zone

is expecting

to see a recovery um why are the world's

two biggest economies losing Steam and

is the EU on course to kind of play

catchup well so in the US what we're

seeing is of course we have I've

mentioned the fact that demand is very

strong right now so in a sense the

economy is running a little bit hot and

some of that is going to go away as

monetary policy remains tight and we

will see the labor market cooling a

little bit more so that explains some of

that unwinding of this this strength in

2024 so we are predicting that growth is

going to go to 2.7% this year and 1.9%

by by 2025 in China uh our we were

projecting for 2024 growth that would

slow down to

4.6% now the new Chinese numbers came

out last night they point to maybe

stronger resilience in the Chinese

economy in the first quarter so we'll

see how we revise our numbers but

overall the weakness in the Chinese

economy is coming from uh a weak

property sector uh that is is weighing

down consumer confidence house prices

are still uh going down or not

increasing uh we see a decline number of

new construction so this is a sector

that remains weak and is going to weigh

on consumer confidence and domestic

demand going forward and that's why we

are marking down our forecast uh for

China in the Euro area we start from the

opposite end uh the region was hit by a

very sharp energy price shock in 2022

2023 it's coming out of that but

monetary policy is still tight so what

we're seeing going forward is monetary

policy will start to ease that will ease

Financial conditions and then as wages

continue to grow and recover real wages

uh purchasing power of workers have

declined in recent years in Europe and

they're expected to catch up that will

provide additional uh purchasing power

to workers and households and that will

sustain uh demand so uh let's talk about

developing country emerging and

developing countries overall are

expected to continue uh to Poe solid

growth India in particular is expected

to stay strong at well over 6% um would

you say that this growth uh is primarily

homeg ground or is kind of this country

uh uh uh benefiting from Western

attempts to decouple or drisk uh uh

their ties with China yes so India is is

one of the one of the bright spots uh in

the world economy we have revised

upwards our growth numbers for last

fiscal year 2324 which ended at the end

of March uh quite substantially to 7.8%

growth that's really a very very high

growth number for a country like India

and then we are expecting 6.8% in the

next fiscal year the one that just

started uh that's also revised upwards

uh a little bit so this is in a context

in which uh the economy is really uh

doing very well and is expected to keep

uh some of that momentum uh going

forward uh there is there is strong uh

demand there was quite a bit of

investment including public investment

and so we're going to see uh uh uh

growth numbers are fairly solid in India

and we're expecting that the medium-term

growth uh are around 6.5% so are also

fairly uh fairly ey uh although those

numbers have not been changed from our

our previous round now it is true that

the trade tensions that have emerged in

the global economy and some of them are

between the US and China but more

broadly we've seen emergence of trade

tensions uh these lead to

reconfiguration of uh of Supply chains

uh and elongation of Supply chains and

that can benefit uh third countries now

this is not a story for India right now

in terms of the aggregate numbers we're

seeing but it's certainly a story when

we look at countries like Vietnam or

Mexico we see a lot of trade that used

to take place between say China and the

United States that would be rerouted

through this what we call them connector

countries they help keep the the global

glue global economy together they are

the global glue if you want and they

prevent a sharper sharper disintegration

of uh of global trade we of course have

to talk about the two conflicts uh in

Ukraine and the Middle East have you

factored those into your predictions so

we of course we are monitoring the

situation and the tensions in uh the

Middle East uh uh started escalate back

in uh the last of uh last year uh and

that is certainly part of our of our

projections but we uh flag as one of the

downside risks for the global economy uh

the uh uh emergence of additional

geopolitical tensions and certainly the

events of the last uh weekend uh would

would be in that category it's too early

to assess the impact that this might

have but what we did in our report is

run an adverse scenario and imagine what

would happen if uh an escalation of

geopolitical tensions led to an increase

in Energy prices and also disrupted uh

shipping um on a scale that is higher

than what we've seen up until now and

we've seen some disruptions in shipments

for instance between Asia and Europe

through the Red Sea and the Swiss Canal

so in our scenario we look at something

that is a little bit sharper than that

and what we find is that it leads to

higher inflation around the world uh

this higher inflation would put push

central banks to tighten monetary policy

in order to keep inflation under control

that would weigh down on activity so we

would have a combination of slightly

higher inflation in our simulations we

find that if you had an increase in oil

prices of about

15% compared to our Baseline that would

translate into about 0.7 percentage

Point higher inflation globally and that

would also be associated with uh lower

economic activity let's stick with

Russia for a moment um its economy has

proven pretty resilient but the growth

is expected uh to slow down do you think

um this might reflect on an expectation

of a conclusion to uh end the war in

Ukraine well let's start from where we

are so where we are right now is indeed

we have marked up our growth projections

for Russia for

2024 uh from about you know 2.6% to 3.2

so it's a significant upward revision

and and the drivers of that revision

there there are four things going on one

you mentioned uh oil exports have been

quite resilient in volume and then oil

prices have remained fairly high so that

generates resources for the Russian

economy that can help uh uh fund its

activities uh second we've seen strong

investment in in Russia investment for

two reasons one is of course because

there is a military effort uh but also

because it's some of the private

investment is substituting from for

foreign uh uh investment that was there

before and all then third very

importantly we have fairly strong

consumption this is a tight labor market

unemployment rate is around 3% the

economy is running is running hot and

and in fact we see inflation pressures

in in the Russian economy so the Russian

economy at this point is not running at

the level that is consistent with this

potential growth it's running above that

and we see these inflation pressures so

some of the some of the decline we're

going to see is when that uh excess

stimulus if you want is is going to come

out and there uh what we find is that

the Russian economy is going to settle

on the medium-term growth path that in

our Baseline continue to factors in the

effect of sanctions so we make our

projections assuming that the sanctions

that are in place right now are going to

remain in place through our forecast

Horizon and we we estimate that they

have an effect in lowering uh

medium-term growth prospects for the

Russian economy in fact we've lowered

them from about 1.7% that was before the

war to about 1 and a

qu% uh at this point what does all of

that mean uh for Russia's ability to

invest in the war

Machinery well so far uh what we're

saying is uh on the fiscal side there's

really ample fiscal space when you look

at the the Russian economy so this is

not an economy that is running uh a huge

uh fiscal deficits they're running a

pretty conservative pretty tight both

fiscal and monetary policy uh despite uh

the fiscal uh efforts in uh in terms of

military spending we have to talk about

AI real briefly um according to your

report some 60% of workers in advanced

economies will be affected by

developments in artificial intelligence

about half in a positive way and the

other half in a negative Direction so

could you expand on that and how this

breaks down across different sectors

right so we we published in January a

big study on the potential impact of AI

on labor markets and our Focus was on

different types of occupation so rather

than look at Industries directly we

decided to go one level deeper and look

at the type of jobs and the tasks that

people are doing and think deeply about

which ones were likely to be maybe

substituted by AI or the ones that might

be enhanced by Ai and we did a very

detailed uh you know uh uh typology of

the different tasks and we found that

you know some of you might think about

some of the Professional Services some

of the uh more managerial positions

might be enhanced by Ai and some of the

more clerical uh types of positions

might be substituted by AI that can

maybe uh uh do the same type of tasks

while other for uh unskilled tasks for

instance then AI may not be as relevant

because it is not likely to substitute

for that so then you can map that in

into into uh sectors and think about

which sectors might be might be more

vulnerable and certainly some sectors in

Services uh Professional Services you

might see some of them be benefiting

from uh the introduction of AI unlike

some other sectors are uh maybe uh

focused more on uh on more basic tasks

um so which sector might benefit the

most well the sectors that might benefit

the most here you might you might think

that um you know Tech and finance might

be sectors that would benefit from the

ability to draw on AI resources while

sectors are of more routine clerical

worker type of tasks might be might be

uh uh more impacted

negatively my last question sir

um what keeps you up at night well one

of the things that we've been very

focused we see front and center at the

at the IMF is is sort of the slow speed

at which the global multilateral system

is unraveling or is you know fraying at

the edges uh and that's this rise we've

been very focused on uh the Potential

Threat from geoeconomic fragmentation we

see the rise in uh trade restrictive

measures they have exploded upwards of

3,000 in 20 23 2022 compared to May

barely a thousand which is already a lot

in in 2019 and we see this escalation in

that space with industrial uh policy

measures that often have have a

protectionist component or component

that could uh uh impact trade and we're

worried that that Spirit of global

cooperation that is so essential to

tackle some of the critical issues in

front of us whether we're thinking about

uh climate change you mentioned ai ai is

going to have Global implications we

need to think about the global

governance in an AI world uh whether we

think about digitalization more broadly

uh whether we think about addressing the

problems of the lowest income countries

all of these issues are much harder to

address in a world where we have

elevated tensions and so it's not it's

not a crisis it's not something that

necessarily makes headlines as a

financial crisis and certainly uh no one

would want a financial crisis but I

think we have to be focused on this

potential unraveling that makes the

world economy less efficient then

impacts our growth rate in a uh in a

Insidious ways and Lead leads us on a

path that is a path where we cannot

achieve some of the uh development goals

that uh we really uh need to accomplish

thank you very much you're welcome