미중관세전쟁 끝났을까? 중국의 진짜 속내는 '이것'입니다 (전병서 소장 / 4부)

Summary

The transcript discusses the shifting economic strategies of China under Xi Jinping, especially after the 2022 government transition and the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. It highlights China’s response to U.S. tariffs, the rise of domestic consumer-driven growth, and the eventual shift from the 'common prosperity' initiative to a more pro-business stance. The narrative focuses on the impact of these changes on the stock market, real estate, and technology investments, particularly AI and electric vehicles, as well as China’s global economic position in 2025.

Takeaways

• 😀 Xi Jinping's economic agenda, initiated in 2022, was influenced by both the need for recovery post-COVID and his policy shift towards growth, with a focus on advanced industries and restructuring.
• 😀 The global economic context, especially the US-China trade tensions under Trump, played a major role in China's GDP growth, with the US facing a negative GDP while China maintained positive growth despite global challenges.
• 😀 Xi Jinping's shift from a wealth-sharing policy (common prosperity) to focusing on wealth creation through a more market-oriented approach marked a major policy change, especially after 2021.
• 😀 China's economy was significantly affected by the pandemic, with the government focusing on boosting domestic consumption and maintaining a 5% GDP growth target despite global downturns.
• 😀 The US-China trade war, particularly Trump's tariffs, led to changes in the trade dynamics, with China proactively increasing exports to offset potential losses from the US market.
• 😀 China's internal policies aimed at boosting domestic spending, such as offering financial incentives, were designed to counteract external economic disruptions.
• 😀 Despite the global recession and trade wars, China has avoided severe recession by using fiscal and monetary tools, including record levels of money supply and financial stimulus.
• 😀 The Chinese government reversed its previous stance on market control and focused on supporting industries and stock markets, showcasing its strategic pivot from the 'common prosperity' framework.
• 😀 The stock market, especially in China, saw rapid fluctuations as a result of government intervention to stabilize and support key industries, including real estate and big tech.
• 😀 The future of China’s economy is likely to be driven by AI and technology investments, with major Chinese companies like Alibaba making substantial moves to invest more heavily in AI, marking a new phase of technological growth.

Q & A

What is the main economic challenge China faced after 2022, according to the transcript?

The main challenge China faced was the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which severely disrupted the economy. As a result, the country had to adopt new economic strategies to recover, but opportunities were missed in the process.

How did the US-China trade war affect GDP growth in both countries?

The US-China trade war, initiated by President Trump in 2017, led to the imposition of high tariffs. This caused a decrease in US GDP due to increased imports, while China's GDP grew because it anticipated reduced exports to the US and took proactive steps to increase domestic production and exports elsewhere.

What was the significance of China's 5% GDP growth target in 2024 despite global economic challenges?

China's commitment to maintaining a 5% GDP growth target in 2024, despite a global economic downturn, was seen as a strategic effort to focus on domestic consumption and mitigate the expected loss of exports to the US due to trade tensions.

How did the US' economic policies, particularly the increase in money supply, impact global markets?

The US increased its money supply by 28.9%, which contributed to stock market growth, even during the pandemic. This policy boosted the US economy temporarily but did not prevent the country from experiencing GDP contraction, especially because of trade imbalances caused by the tariffs.

What shift in China's economic strategy occurred after September 2024?

In September 2024, China shifted its economic stance by reversing several key policies it had implemented in the past four years. This included efforts to support the real estate market, stock market, and local governments, which had previously been in crisis.

What role did government intervention play in the Chinese stock market's performance?

The Chinese government intervened heavily in the stock market to stabilize it, using state-backed funds to prevent sharp declines. This proactive approach contributed to a rise in Chinese stock prices, even when global markets were facing downturns.

How did China's approach to the housing market differ from other global economies?

China took a more cautious approach to increasing liquidity in the housing market compared to other countries. It refrained from massive monetary easing during the COVID-19 crisis but later implemented large-scale fiscal and monetary policies to support domestic demand.

What is the significance of the shift from a 'common prosperity' policy to a more 'pro-business' approach in China?

The shift from 'common prosperity' to a 'pro-business' approach marked a significant policy change. China began to focus on encouraging private businesses and market-oriented growth, with President Xi Jinping acknowledging the importance of wealthy entrepreneurs in driving China's economic future.

What impact did the trade war and tariffs have on the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing?

The US-China trade war and tariffs, especially the threat of a 60% retaliatory tariff, led to reduced Chinese exports to the US. However, China responded by increasing exports to other markets and restructuring its domestic economy to reduce reliance on US trade.

How are AI investments and technological innovation expected to drive China's future economy?

China is expected to focus heavily on AI and technological innovation in the coming years, with significant investments planned in AI sectors. This is part of a broader effort to boost its manufacturing capabilities and compete globally, particularly in areas like semiconductors and AI-driven technologies.