Mexico's New President is a “Nightmare for the Right”
Summary
TLDRThe video discusses the election of Mexico's first female and Jewish president, Claudia Sheinbaum, and its potential impact on the country's economy and policies. The president-elect's left-leaning stance may lead to increased social welfare spending, green regulations, and a possible shift from US-centric trade policies. The speaker shares his insights on living and investing in Mexico, suggesting a cautious approach to business and real estate while considering the new political landscape, and emphasizes the importance of monitoring tax policies and potential changes.
Takeaways
- 🇲🇽 Mexico has elected its first female president, Claudia Sheinbaum, marking a historic moment in the country's political landscape.
- 🌎 Sheinbaum is also the first president with Jewish heritage and is considered left-wing, which has led to concerns among some conservatives.
- 💼 She has a background in environmental engineering and is expected to introduce more 'green New Deal' style regulations, potentially increasing the cost of doing business.
- 📈 She has promised to expand social welfare, particularly in healthcare and education, but this could be at the expense of fiscal prudence.
- 🛑 She pledges to uphold the North American Free Trade Agreement but wants Mexico's trade policies to be more diversified, not solely focused on the USA.
- 💼 Sheinbaum plans to significantly increase wages, which may not be based on free market principles and could affect business profitability.
- 🌿 She is committed to transitioning to renewable energy and has criticized market economics, which could lead to a more interventionist government approach.
- 💡 The president-elect wants a larger government role with increased spending and taxes on the wealthy, which may impact personal and business finances.
- 🤝 She aims to deepen relationships with Central and South American countries, indicating a move towards a more global-minded stance.
- 🏠 For foreigners considering living in Mexico, there may be implications regarding residence permits, citizenship, and real estate investment due to the new policies.
- 📊 The speaker suggests a focus on individual company investments in Mexico rather than index funds, due to the potential for better returns from localized investments.
Q & A
Who is Claudia Shane Bomb, the newly elected president of Mexico?
-Claudia Shane Bomb is the first female president of Mexico, with a Jewish heritage, and is a left-wing president-elect with an academic background in environmental engineering and alternative energy.
What are some of the key policy promises made by President-elect Claudia Shane Bomb?
-She has promised to expand social welfare spending, particularly in healthcare and education, uphold the North American Free Trade Agreement, increase wages significantly, and fund the transition to renewable energy.
How does the speaker view the potential impact of Claudia Shane Bomb's policies on businesses in Mexico?
-The speaker suggests that the new president's policies, which include green New Deal style regulations and increased taxes on the wealthy, could make it more costly to do business in Mexico.
What does the speaker think about Mexico's international business relations under the new presidency?
-The speaker believes that Mexico is likely to continue doing business with more places around the world, which could be positive for the country's economy.
What is the speaker's perspective on investing in Mexico, especially in light of the new president's policies?
-The speaker advocates for a more localized investment approach, focusing on individual companies rather than an index fund, as a way to potentially achieve better returns.
How does the speaker view the potential impact of the new presidency on Mexico's stock market?
-The speaker notes that some stocks in Mexico went down after the election but also recovered, suggesting that the impact on the stock market might not be entirely negative and that investors should look at long-term trends.
What is the speaker's opinion on the potential for tax increases under the new Mexican president?
-The speaker anticipates that tax increases could be a possibility, which might not be favorable for corporations and could affect reinvestment prospects.
What does the speaker suggest about the impact of the new presidency on foreign residents and citizens in Mexico?
-The speaker suggests that foreign residents and citizens might face the risk of being pulled into the Mexican tax system, which could complicate their financial situation.
How does the speaker view the potential for social policies under the new Mexican president?
-The speaker does not provide a clear stance but implies that there could be significant changes in social policies, which might be liked or disliked by different segments of the population.
What is the speaker's advice for those considering living in Mexico under the new presidency?
-The speaker advises potential residents to keep an eye on tax policies and consider the implications of becoming a tax resident, especially if they plan to live in Mexico part-time or full-time.
What does the speaker suggest about the future of real estate investment in Mexico with the new president in power?
-The speaker does not rule out the possibility of new taxes or regulations affecting real estate, but also does not discourage investment, suggesting that it depends on individual circumstances and the long-term outlook.
Outlines
🗽 Mexico's Historic Election of First Female President
Claudia Shane, Mexico's first female president with Jewish heritage, has been elected, marking a historic moment for the country. The speaker discusses the potential impact of her presidency on social welfare, trade policies, and business costs. As a left-wing president with a background in environmental engineering, she is expected to introduce more 'green New Deal' style regulations. The speaker also shares his thoughts on living and investing in Mexico under the new administration, noting the president-elect's plans to expand social welfare, uphold the North American Free Trade Agreement, and increase wages, while expressing concerns about potential negative effects on the economy due to increased government intervention and taxation.
📉 Stock Market Reaction and Long-Term Investment Perspective
The speaker addresses the immediate reaction of the Mexican stock market to the election results, noting a drop in many stocks, including banks. However, he emphasizes the importance of long-term investment strategies over short-term market fluctuations. He shares his personal investment philosophy, focusing on trends and future potential rather than immediate gains or losses. The speaker also discusses the potential for Mexico's growth, referencing the opinions of successful investors like Bill Ackman, and suggests that Mexico's trajectory may be more favorable compared to the US in the coming years.
🏠 Implications for Residents and Property Investors in Mexico
This paragraph delves into the possible changes in tax policies and the impact on residents and property investors in Mexico. The speaker speculates on potential tax increases and the possibility of new taxes targeting foreigners or property owners. He advises caution for those considering buying property or starting a business in Mexico under the new administration. The speaker also discusses the complexities of Mexico's tax system for foreigners and the potential for changes that could affect part-time and full-time residents differently.
🌐 Global Business Outlook and Hiring in Mexico
The speaker shares his experiences and insights on hiring and doing business in Mexico, comparing it to other Latin American countries. He expresses concerns that the new president's policies might make hiring and running a business in Mexico less attractive due to potential increased regulations and costs. However, he acknowledges the resilience of certain sectors and the importance of monitoring the situation closely. The speaker also touches on the broader implications of the new administration's policies on Mexico's economic direction and the potential for social and economic changes.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡President-elect Claudia Shin
💡Jewish Heritage
💡Conservatives
💡Green New Deal
💡Social Welfare Spending
💡Free Trade Agreement
💡Near Shoring
💡Renewable Energy
💡Market Economics
💡Interventionist Government
💡Global Mindedness
💡Residence Permits
💡Investment in Stocks
💡Momentum Thinker
💡Tax System
💡Wealth Taxes
💡Property Tax
💡Citizenship
💡Tax Residents
💡Nomad Capitalist
Highlights
Mexico has elected its first female president, Claudia Sheinbaum, marking a historic moment for the country.
Claudia Sheinbaum is also the first president with Jewish heritage in Mexican history.
The election results are seen as a potential nightmare for conservatives due to Sheinbaum's left-wing policies.
Sheinbaum has an academic background in environmental engineering and alternative energy, suggesting a focus on green policies.
Economic and trade policy promises include aggressive expansion of social welfare spending, mainly in healthcare and education.
She pledges to uphold the North American Free Trade Agreement but also diversify trade policies beyond the USA.
Wage increases are promised, potentially not based on free market principles.
A commitment to fund the transition to renewable energy and criticism of market economics are noted.
Sheinbaum advocates for a larger, more interventionist government with increased spending and taxes on the wealthy.
The new president aims to deepen relationships with Central and South America, reflecting a global mindset.
There may be implications for residence permits and citizenship for foreigners living in Mexico.
Real estate investment in Mexico could be affected by potential new taxes or regulations.
The speaker discusses their personal investment strategy in Mexico, focusing on individual companies rather than index funds.
A comparison is made between the new president's policies and those of other countries, with a focus on long-term trends.
The potential impact of Sheinbaum's policies on business costs and the banking industry is considered.
The speaker shares their perspective on the importance of global diversification and the potential of Mexico's economy.
The transcript concludes with a discussion on the importance of monitoring tax policies and their potential effects on residents and businesses in Mexico.
Transcripts
Mexico has just elected a new president
very first female president Claudia
Shane bomb president-elect Claudia Shin
bomb the country's historic new
president- elect Claudia Shane bomb a
moment of many firsts for Mexico the
country has elected its first female
president and first president with
Jewish Heritage some are calling it a
nightmare for conservatives I'm going to
give you my thoughts on how to live in
and how to invest in Mexico in the next
6 years with with this new
president I've been here in Cairo for
the last few days we're working on an
R&D project with Egyption real estate
and citizenship and you'll be seeing
some of that in the next couple months
to come uh but I was talking to my
colleague here at Nomad capist about the
election of uh Mexico's upcoming new
president he calls it a nightmare for
conservatives uh he makes the general
observations the first female president
first Jewish president in Mexican
history she is the leftwing president
elect and mentee of Amo who is currently
in charge has an academic background in
environmental engineering and
alternative energy and so he thinks
you're going to see more green New Deal
style regulations which could make it
more costly to do business there uh
here's what she has promised on economic
and trade policy expanding aggressively
social welfare spending mainly
Healthcare education uh that could not
be so good pledges to uphold the Free
Trade Agreement within North America but
believes me meic trade policies should
not focus on exclusively on the USA
you've heard us say that in the past yes
uh I believe part of the reason why
Mexico has been interesting to me as not
an on the ground investment perhaps but
having interest in Mexican companies is
uh they are already doing business with
more places around the world you're
seeing near Shoring we'll talk about
this in a moment uh but you are going to
see more business from all around the
world Mexico is a is a big country and I
was talking to folks 10 11 years years
ago why do they let the US push them
around so much that seems positive to me
let's see what she does with it pledges
to increase wages significally it I I
don't imagine that's going to entirely
be based on free market principles I
hope that people's wages increase uh but
let's see how she does that pledges to
fund the transition to renewable energy
she's criticized Market EC economics
obviously that is not so good blames
neoliberal economic policies for poverty
inequality not so good uh wants a bigger
larger and more interventionist
government economic policy with
increased government spending and taxes
on the wealthy uh he surmises usually
follow there after so a lot of good a
lot of bad a couple things uh that could
be good uh want to deepen relationships
with Central and South America again I
think being more of a global minded
country is good uh and then there's some
of the more liberal social policies you
might like that uh you might not I'm
going to go
through uh living in Mexico what this
might means for residence permits if you
live there parttime if you live there
full-time as a foreigner what this means
for citizenship what this means for real
estate investment and then I'm going to
talk about what I talked about recently
which is why I'm investing in Mexico
with a focus more on stocks and a focus
more on uh the Mexican peso longterm my
belief is that Mexico has potential if
you focus more on individual investments
in companies that you know something
about rather than an index I'm not going
to give you specific stock
recommendations uh but in Emerging
Markets when you buy an index fund
you're often uh overweight on things
that may be slower growth and uh when
you make more localized Investments uh
whether it's you're you're picking your
own stocks and trading those
International brokerage account whether
you have access to Investments through a
foreign bank that's in the region uh you
will generally speaking do better so the
us next door has problems and it's
trending down we've talked about that
from day one here Mexico has its
problems always has uh amlo's been in
charge for almost 6 years now he wasn't
ideal I'll come back to him in a minute
I think the country is trending up I am
a momentum thinker if your business
makes less money every month and the
month before you can reasonably think
you're going to keep making less money
you've got a problem to fix uh I think
Mexico is trending on the way up will
this election of this President uh stop
that I think there's a number of factors
in favor of Mexico uh and here's how I
look at it if you're an American and
you've bought stocks during the Joe
Biden Administration or the Obama
Administration people talk about how
they destroyed the country that's really
not much different than saying hey I
don't like the president of Mexico I'm
not going to buy Mexican stocks uh and
if you look at you know I made it agree
with Warren Buffett on everything but he
believes that the US economy will always
be trending in the right direction I
don't agree with him on that but based
on him thinking that he continues to
invest in the US whether he likes the
president or not he's certainly more
liberal uh than I am or leftwing than I
am on on fiscal policy but you know if
you're an American and buying stocks
under Joe Biden and you think Joe
Biden's doing a terrible job and doing
some of these same things uh then what's
the difference other than maybe you
understand the US better than Mexico so
let's get into the two parts uh if you
are someone who's looking at living in
Mexico and and wondering what this new
president will mean for you we'll get
into that in in into a minute I always
love comments uh like this one LMFAO
Mexican stocks get crushed due to
leftist communist winning the presidency
guys if you have to say LMAO or L LMFAO
or any of this we get it you're deeply
wounded you need to try and like take
some of the stink off by like making
yourself seem more secure we all see
right through it we we see it as the
desperate Ploy that it is for you to
like try and look strong and tough even
though deep inside you're like oh I'm
going to get him so I can feel bad
matter about myself uh but here's what
happened uh some stocks uh many stocks
in Mexico the day of this election were
down or the day after the election were
down 10% I only own a handful of Mexico
stocks uh one of the stocks that I
invested in was actually up it's a it's
a packaged you know consumer goods you
know consumer Products Company it was up
less than 1% but it was up and since the
election it's up I think about 7% uh the
time you're watching this it may be a
little bit different but it is up it
never really went down Bank stocks got
crushed and so we'll see what she'll do
uh with that
industry um but uh one of the bank
stocks that I have yeah was down 10% and
that kind of put me back to where I
started uh but then it came you know you
saw a 3% jump 4% jump 1% jump uh so you
saw people buying and you know I gener
like to take my advice I am not a
professional investor I'm someone who
looks at Trends I want to see where the
world is going and I invest for 10 20 50
years into the future I'm not a mem
stock uh Trader I don't think you can
call someone who buys meme stocks an
investor doesn't mean there's anything
wrong with that but you're trading
you're not investing I'm looking at
where the future is and listen on Mexico
I may be proven wrong we all know Latin
America's a history uh as one person
said when things get too good they bring
in someone that's very left-wing to uh
you know potentially try and ruin that
uh we all that to me is baked in but my
point on following people who are more
successful than I am you know Bill akman
said it pretty clearly you may or may
not agree with his more political stance
recently uh but he said listen you want
your stocks to go down uh I get it same
like everybody else it's nice to uh go
and look and oh and I you know made some
money in the stock market today but he
says you know if if you're my age uh or
many of our ages uh you want your stocks
to go down why because you can buy more
and so I didn't have the chance to do a
lot of that but I got to do a little bit
of that when something was down 10% and
now it's you know maybe it's down 3%
since then uh I'm not buying stuff for
selling it next month I'm buying stuff
because I think and I said this if I
were to have a child I'd rather they be
Mexican than American I think 18 years
from now the momentum you know Curve
will be far more visible between Mexico
and the US they will be much closer so
Mexico is a large country they have
resources I see the trends towards near
Shoring um if the free trade Free Trade
Agreement is upheld you know that could
be good investment from Asia is
increasing uh opening up beyond the USA
I think all that stuff is good uh by the
way I own stocks in countries that I
absolutely would have no kind of
business of my own like in France I have
one of my best performing Financial
Services stocks is a French company I
bought it several years ago it's
outperformed US Banks um it's
outperformed uh a lot of financial
services companies around the world pays
one of the healthiest dividends in that
space that there is uh would I start a
business in France would I move to
France absolutely not we've we've been
very clear on my thoughts on France uh
but you know my exposure to all that
icky stuff in France is limited to hey
here's a company who knows how to
navigate that they're still profitable
the stock goes up they pay me a dividend
uh and it's done well and so I think
Mexico has more room to grow than France
and so you know if the policies in
Mexico become as bad as the ones in
France where you can never fire anybody
just the kind of stuff that maybe this
new president likes talking about uh
does that mean the end of those
companies I am not so sure let me be
clear uh it may not work out as well as
I think in Mexico that there could
always be that risk uh I I think that
you know I mean like anybody have a
portfolio where a lot of stocks are up
and a handful of stocks are down and
sometimes you cut the losers but uh you
know my thought again remains macro it
remains you know multigen you know
multi- decades long
um and again I look at you know if you
would buy stuff in the US if you would
buy a global you know index fund that
had exposure to France Germany's not
that much better uh you know they have
some of the same policies but I may
agree with the new president elect I
would not and let's get to this part I'm
not saying this is a good time to go and
start a business in Mexico but I can buy
shares of other people's businesses and
because this is no mad capitalist and we
talk about global diversification we're
talking about less than 1% of my net
worth so um no matter what happens it's
not going to be the end of the world the
peso the peso did uh go down great you
know if you believe in the story long
term buy more pesos uh the peso is still
you know stronger than where it was I
was looking at the chart not that long
ago um if you look at how the peso was
done since the pandemic it's still done
very well so you know I don't
necessarily look at these day-to-day
things is the president elect some of
the alliance of values most of the time
not so let's talk about uh living and we
talked uh within my team again with the
folks in Latin America what they think
Could Happen tax increases could come is
that going to be great news for
corporations uh no not necessarily and
that could hurt you know some growth or
some reinvestment prospects maybe a
dividend gets cut somewhere uh but
Mexico has always had this weird tax
system where if you're a foreigner let's
say you have a residence permit lots of
people that we work with is clients
choose to get Mexico residence permits
they may just keep it in their back
pocket and really not spend any time at
all there or they may go and spend part
of their year there but those who have
talked about spending the majority of
their time there the question has been
there's different ties that if you can
avoid those you may be able to avoid
being a Mexican tax resident could the
new president get around to fixing that
and mean and and going to a standard if
you spend here uh3 days a year you're
going to pay maybe it seems like a
pretty Niche thing to focus on when
she's talking about so much big bigger
priorities is it is it so important to
to suck a few more T foreigners into the
tax system maybe they do that maybe it's
part of some larger Bill uh that's
possible so if you're living full-time
in Mexico maybe there's a risk that
you'll be sucked into the tax system the
taxes are already not great and if you
get sucked into the tax system uh you do
have to wait generally three years to
fully get out of it depending on where
you live so that's not something that
you want maybe they they tighten that up
maybe they don't um who I think it's
worse for is if you're already living
there if you're a Mexican yeah your
taxes very well may go up for all this
social spending for for those folks who
are already in the tax system if you are
anyone Mexican or Foreigner who is
paying taxes in Mexico I would expect
that eventually they're going to come
and ask for more um you know I don't
know that a wealth taxes perhaps on the
table um I think that those don't really
work that well and I think a lot of
countries have seen that even very left
lading ones income taxes could go up new
taxes come could come into play so I
think most foreigners go and live in
Mexico unless they're really embedded in
the society you know 365 days a year
they own a home they're doing business
locally most foreigners at least the
ones that I know are not in the Mexican
tax system and so this won't affect them
and we'll just have to keep an eye out
for new rules that might more easily
suck you in if you're living there you
know part-time which even then might
only apply to you if you don't spend the
other time in let's say a 3D country so
I don't see huge issues for people who
live in Mexico part-time I I do see
potential po big issues if you live
there full-time and you are a taxpayer
again particularly because there is a
period in which case you have to kind of
transition yourself out of the Mexican
tax system it is a harder tax net to uh
get out of what's going to happen
socially uh that's something that I
can't uh predict but what happens when
countries go leftwing would I be in a
rush to buy property in Mexico uh I mean
if that was my home and I wanted to have
it I you know to some extent I look at
property as if I own it that's a
lifestock expense and you know if I'm
going to live there and I just want the
property and I feel like I will continue
to live there uh then maybe I would I'm
not going to I can't give you advice on
whether to buy a property but I
certainly wouldn't rule out a new
vacancy tax for example uh that I don't
think that's been discussed by the
president-elect but that kind of thing
could come into place to to talk about
hey these foreigners are coming and
buying our homes and if they don't live
there that often hey let's put some new
kind of tax on or let's have a property
tax on foreigners or let's raise
everyone's property taxes that's the
kind of stuff that could happen I don't
necessarily see an issue with getting a
residence permit uh certainly citizens
are more likely to fall into the tax net
than pure residents and so if you get a
residence permit with the option of
converting it to citizenship that may
you know be less interesting if you
actually want to live in Mexico but if
you don't live in Mexico it may not be
as much of an issue so uh for people who
want to spend a decent chunk of Time in
Mexico there's some planning to do uh
otherwise you know I think making you I
would not be rushing to open a business
in Mexico right now uh we do hire people
in a number of countries in Latin
America um for some reason because I
really thought Mexico was going to be
fantastic I know so many great um you
know Mexicans uh we've had much more
success in Colombia Argentina than we
have in Mexico uh so hiring people in
Mexico you know having a company like
what are the regulations around that
that might also get worse uh that said I
mean we as a Professional Services firm
you know already paying people plenty
well uh I would imagine the first
priority is exactly what Amo did which
was uh the pandemic through the pandemic
hey we can't shut down people who make
money from running you know little you
know Street retail we can't put them all
out of work we can't put them all you
know the poverty line and that's a big
reason of why Mexico remained open
during the pandemic so you know I'm not
a perfect you know right-wing
conservative in the sense of um you know
I'm low you know whenever you want to
say about it I mean the country stayed
open during Co it was one of the most
open places in the world the argument
was somewhat of a leftwing economic
argument but I would imagine that even
again hiring people in Mexico uh if
you're hiring folks professionally and
not for you know factory work or
something would still be better but you
does this make me slightly less
interested to go and and hire people in
Mexico perhaps it does yes um because
there are good countries in uh Latin
America where they're they're trending
in the right direction so not a fan of
the president elects policies at least
most of them uh by the way listen
there's even things uh you know that
Obama did that I would agree with not a
huge overall fan of Obama um but you
know to me you can always pick something
does that mean I like this President
elect a lot no uh I don't I do think
there's companies that are going to run
in Mexico the largest banks aren going
to go out of business uh bakeries and
consumer you know products companies are
not going to go to business could it be
less profitable maybe and so I'll
monitor it and I'll see and and maybe uh
other you know country stocks will
outpace my Mexican stocks and I'll
adjust accordingly while in the meantime
collecting above average dividends which
is part of what I personally do in my
Investment Portfolio is seek yield
because I already have a growth stock
it's called my business so I think that
those are the things that you want to
watch out for keep an eye on your stocks
if you're buying Mexican stocks keep an
eye on which ones that you think will be
resilient plenty of resources companies
I mean there's resources that are in
high demand what's going to happen with
that you know buy what you feel
comfortable with I still believe in the
country long term I still believe in
having residence permits there I still
you know believe in potentially living
there part-time keep an eye out for the
tax policy this is all the stuff that
we're going to be talking to our clients
about because we read the tax journals
we read all the different Publications
we see what's happening on the ground
and if things change we'll be talking to
our clients about it so uh you can learn
more about how we help people do that at
Nomad capitalist
tocoma we'd be happy to talk to you
about whether Mexico is a plan a plan B
plan C Plan D is it a residence permit
I've never said that banking in Mexico
was a great option other than maybe
having a small casual bank account to
pay bills that's something that I
wouldn't be in a rush to do um you know
I've never advocated to buy Mexican real
estate and I think that those positions
might remain the same but stocks and
part-time living and residence permits
are all things that potentially uh could
be part of your overall Nomad capitalist
mix
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