Interview with Adam Schwarz: Indonesia's future foreign policy facing US-China tensions

Summary

Adam Schwarz, a seasoned observer of Indonesia and CEO of Asia Group, discusses Indonesia's foreign policy under President-elect Brau Subo. He highlights the challenges Indonesia faces as global geopolitical dynamics become more complex, especially with the rising US-China rivalry. Schwarz compares the approaches of previous President Joko Widodo and Subo, emphasizing Subo's global ambitions. While Indonesia has maintained a non-aligned stance, Schwarz suggests the nation's ability to balance relations with both the US and China will be increasingly difficult. The US-China relationship now dominates global foreign policy, affecting Indonesia's position in the region.

Takeaways

• 😀 Adam Schwarz is an expert on Indonesia, with a background as a former Mackenzie consultant and close connections to both former and current government officials.
• 😀 Indonesia's foreign policy under President-elect Brau Subo is expected to continue a non-aligned stance, focusing on maintaining balanced relations with both China and the United States.
• 😀 Piko, Indonesia's previous leader, successfully navigated a policy of effective arms-length relationships with both superpowers, China and the US.
• 😀 The geopolitical landscape is becoming more complex, making it increasingly challenging for countries like Indonesia to maintain an equal relationship with both the US and China.
• 😀 The growing rivalry between the US and China will force other countries to reassess their positions in relation to these two superpowers.
• 😀 US-China relations have become increasingly central in global geopolitics, affecting the foreign policies of other nations, including Indonesia.
• 😀 Indonesia enjoys good relations with both Washington and Beijing, with significant recognition in Washington for the role Indonesia plays in Asia.
• 😀 The US-China relationship is a key filter through which other global relationships, including with Indonesia, are being evaluated by the United States.
• 😀 Both the US and Indonesia see the value in having ambassadors in place to strengthen bilateral relations and address diplomatic issues.
• 😀 There is hope on both sides (Indonesia and the US) that diplomatic challenges, such as ambassadorial positions, will be resolved soon to enhance cooperation.

Q & A

What is the main difference between President-elect Brau Subo and former President Joko Widodo's approach to foreign policy?

The main difference is that Joko Widodo (Jokowi) focused more on domestic development, while President-elect Brau Subo shows an interest in playing a more active role on the global stage, reflecting his foreign policy priorities.

How did President Jokowi manage Indonesia's relationship with China and the US?

President Jokowi maintained a non-aligned stance, engaging in effective arms-length relationships with both China and the US. His approach was aimed at balancing the interests of both superpowers while preserving Indonesia's independence.

What challenges are expected in Indonesia's foreign policy under President-elect Brau Subo?

The main challenge will be maintaining a balanced relationship with both the US and China amid the growing geopolitical rivalry between these two superpowers, which could complicate Indonesia's position in global affairs.

Why is it increasingly difficult for Indonesia to maintain a neutral stance between the US and China?

As the geopolitical landscape becomes more complex, with the US-China rivalry intensifying, it will be harder for Indonesia to maintain its traditional non-aligned stance. The growing competition between these powers means that Indonesia’s position might be more influenced by the dynamics between them.

How does the US-China relationship affect other countries, including Indonesia?

As the US-China relationship becomes more central to global geopolitics, other countries, including Indonesia, may find their foreign policy decisions increasingly shaped by the tensions or cooperation between the US and China.

What role does Indonesia play in the US’s broader strategy in Asia?

Indonesia is recognized as playing an important role in Asia. The US sees Indonesia as a significant partner in the region due to its political, economic, and strategic importance.

What is the US’s position on Indonesia’s diplomatic relationships?

The US appreciates Indonesia’s progress and values its diplomatic relationship with the country, recognizing its importance in Asia. However, the US’s foreign policy towards Indonesia may be influenced by the broader US-China relationship.

How might the growing US-China rivalry impact Indonesia’s foreign policy in the future?

As the US-China rivalry intensifies, Indonesia will face more pressure to navigate its relationships with both superpowers. It may need to adapt its foreign policy to remain neutral or effectively balance its interests in a more polarized global environment.

What is the hope for US-Indonesia relations moving forward?

The hope is that the US and Indonesia can strengthen their bilateral relationship, particularly through the presence of ambassadors, which is seen as a critical step toward addressing any issues and ensuring continued positive relations.

Why is it important for both the US and Indonesia to have ambassadors in place?

Having ambassadors in place is crucial for advancing the bilateral relationship between the US and Indonesia. Ambassadors help facilitate diplomatic dialogue and ensure smoother communication between the two countries, which is especially important given the complexities of global geopolitics.