Hubungan Indo–AS bakal seret? Gubernur BI sarankan cari partner lain #komentarberita

Summary

The Governor of Bank Indonesia, Mr. Peri, warns of a global economic slowdown, forecasting a decline in growth from 3.2% in 2024 to 3.0% by 2026, largely due to the anticipated policies of President-elect Trump. Key focus areas include Indonesia's export strategies, boosting tourism, and utilizing new financial instruments like mortgage securitization to attract foreign capital. While the Indonesian government is pursuing ambitious economic programs, there's concern about their feasibility amid global uncertainties. The need for coordinated policy actions to strengthen Indonesia's economic resilience is emphasized in light of a challenging global economic environment.

Takeaways

• 😀 The Governor of Bank Indonesia, Mr. Perry, predicts a global economic downturn, with global growth dropping from 3.2% in 2024 to 3% by 2026.
• 😀 The U.S. is expected to be the only major economy with positive growth between 2025-2026, while Europe and China will experience economic decline.
• 😀 Indonesia needs to boost exports and tourism, focusing on high-growth countries like China and India to sustain economic activity.
• 😀 Global inflation is predicted to rise again, influenced by high tariffs and trade wars, particularly with U.S. policies under President Trump.
• 😀 Despite expectations, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is only likely to reduce interest rates two times in 2025, not four as anticipated, with minor adjustments.
• 😀 The strong U.S. dollar is attracting global investments, but risks are also present due to high interest rates and ongoing economic uncertainties.
• 😀 Bank Indonesia's response to global economic pressures includes leveraging financial instruments like SBN (government bonds) and SRBI (foreign currency securities) to attract foreign capital.
• 😀 The U.S. might continue to draw investments, but high interest rates and uncertainties could lead to volatility in the global markets.
• 😀 The Bank of Indonesia emphasizes the importance of careful calculation and risk management when adopting new financial instruments like securitization of home loans.
• 😀 Both the Indonesian government and Bank Indonesia share concerns about the deteriorating global economy, but are taking steps to protect Indonesia's economy from external shocks, including increased public spending and stimulus programs.

Q & A

What did Pak Peri, the Governor of Bank Indonesia, predict about global economic growth?

Pak Peri predicted that global economic growth would decline from 3.2% in 2024 to 3% in 2025, with the U.S. being the only major economy to show positive growth.

Why did Pak Peri highlight the potential impact of Donald Trump's presidency on the global economy?

Pak Peri linked Trump’s presidency to possible economic turmoil, citing the expected rise in tariffs and trade wars, which could lead to slower global economic growth and increased inflation.

Which countries did Pak Peri emphasize as key markets for Indonesia's exports and tourism?

Pak Peri emphasized China and India as key markets for Indonesia’s exports, due to their high economic growth and large consumer markets.

What concern did Pak Peri raise regarding China’s economy?

Pak Peri expressed concern that if China's economy slows down, it may reduce its imports, which could negatively affect Indonesia's export sector.

How is Bank Indonesia addressing the global economic challenges?

Bank Indonesia is addressing these challenges by introducing new financial instruments, such as SRBI (Securities of Foreign Currency and Rupiah) and short-term debt instruments, to attract foreign investment despite global economic uncertainty.

What was the role of securitization in Pak Peri's discussion on Bank Indonesia's strategy?

Pak Peri mentioned securitization as a potential tool for attracting foreign investment, but also warned of the risks associated with it, referencing the 2008 U.S. housing crisis as an example of how such practices can lead to economic instability.

What initiatives did President Prabowo and Finance Minister Sri Mulyani propose to combat economic challenges?

President Prabowo and Finance Minister Sri Mulyani proposed ambitious programs, including free housing, wage increases for teachers, and expanding social programs, to stimulate the economy and support citizens.

How do the government’s ambitious programs conflict with the current global economic outlook?

The government’s ambitious programs, while beneficial in the long term, may strain Indonesia’s finances and may not align with the current global economic difficulties, creating potential risks to the nation’s fiscal stability.

What did Pak Peri say about the U.S. Federal Reserve's role in the global economic outlook?

Pak Peri mentioned that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions, particularly the recent decrease in rates, are crucial to global economic expectations. However, he noted that the Fed's actions may not align with earlier forecasts, impacting investment flows.

What are the risks associated with Indonesia's current economic strategy, according to Pak Peri?

Pak Peri warned that while Indonesia's economic strategy is focused on attracting foreign investment and boosting exports, there are risks involved, particularly related to the reliance on global economic conditions and the possibility of trade barriers or geopolitical instability.