China's Economic Comeback Story

Summary

このスクリプトでは、中国経済の現状と成長要因について分析しています。経済は底を打ち、アメリカ消費者の回復とヨーロッパでの需要増がポジティブな兆しを示していますが、全体的に緩やかな成長と低いインフレーションが続きます。中国政府は産業自動化とデジタル化、グリーン分野での成長を目指しており、世界最大の産業用ロボット保有国となっています。不動産市場の過剰供給が課題ですが、都市化の促進や特定の開発業者への支援など、政府の対策が進められています。外国資本の流入を促進し、国内消費を強化することが中国経済の成長を促す鍵となります。

Takeaways

• 📈 中国经济正在触底，物流业数据显示美国消费者需求有所回升。
• 🌐 欧洲需求也在增加，但整体经济仍然低迷，增长不均。
• 🤖 中国政府正将经济重心转向数字化和工业自动化，以提高全球竞争力。
• 🟢 中国在绿色能源方面投入巨大，致力于在电池、电动车和太阳能板领域取得领先地位。
• 🏠 中国房地产市场存在过剩问题，估计有2000万至3000万套过剩房屋。
• 🛑 国际市场对中国的绿色转型投入有所关注，担心产能过剩问题。
• 💡 政府鼓励提高储蓄率，以增加消费和投资，提振经济。
• 🏢 中国需要更多外国资本回流，外国直接投资急剧下降。
• 🏗️ 中国政府提出约500亿美元的经济刺激计划，以支持房地产市场。
• 📊 投资者应关注与国内经济相关的领域，如照明效率、兽医诊所和饮料行业。
• 🌏 亚洲内部贸易增长迅速，预计未来5至7年内亚洲内部贸易比例将达到70%。
• 📉 中国目前估值具有吸引力，尽管近期面临一些挑战。
• 🗝️ 日本市场估值低廉，且企业改革基本面正在改善，值得关注。

Q & A

中国経済の現状はどうですか？

中国経済は底を打ち、米消費者の回復と欧州での需要が少し増しているというポジティブなデータがありますが、全体的に見るとCOVID後の経済は低迷しています。成長は均等ではなく、特定の分野のみが成長しています。

中国政府は経済をどのように再構築していますか？

中国政府は経済をデジタル化とグリーン分野に再構築しています。特に産業部門の自動化を通じて効果的かつ競争力のあるグローバルな産業を目指しています。

中国は現在どのようなデジタル化の取り組みを行っていますか？

中国は産業部門の自動化を進めており、世界におけるロボットの半分以上を有しています。これは驚くべき統計です。

中国のグリーン分野の取り組みとはどのようなものですか？

中国は電池、電気自動車(EV)、太陽パネルなどの分野でリーダーシップを目指しており、これらの技術を世界に輸出しようとしています。

中国の不動産市場はどのような状況ですか？

中国の不動産市場は問題があり、過剰な供給が存在しています。おおよそ2000万から3000万の家が多すぎると見積もりられており、政府はこれを解決しようとしています。

中国の過剰な生産能力はどのように影響を与えますか？

過剰な生産能力は市場の需要と供給のバランスを崩し、利益率に影響を与える可能性があります。中国はラテンアメリカや東欧などの地域に生産能力を拡大するでしょう。

中国経済の成長はどのように評価されていますか？

中国経済は成長しているものの、インフレ率が低く、成長は他の地域と比較して均等でないです。また、中国は世界経済成長の約25％を占めており、その影響は大きいとされています。

中国の貯蓄率はどのように変化していますか？

中国の貯蓄率はCOVID-19後のゼロコロナ政策の影響を受け、約300ポイント増加しましたが、国内の消費と企業の投資に影響を与える可能性があります。

中国の不動産市場を改善するためにどのような措置が考えられますか？

都市化の促進、移住者の戸籍制度(hukou)の改革、開発業者の統合、不良住宅の整理などが提案されています。

中国の資本市場にどのような影響が期待されますか？

外国資本の流入を促進し、国内消費を刺激する企業への投資やIPOを通じて資本市場の活性化が期待されます。

中国での投資の機会はどこにありますか？

中国での投資の機会は国内経済に関連する分野にあり、例えば照明効率、獣医診療所、飲料などです。また、アジア全体の貿易増加にも注目するべきです。

アジア市場全体の動向はどうですか？

COVID-19以降、アジア内貿易が増加しており、将来的にはアジア内貿易が70％に達すると予想されています。インフラストラクチャ分野に注目するべきです。

投資家に向けてのアドバイスはありますか？

中国は魅力的な評価で取引されている一方、インドは長期的には素晴らしい市場ですが、時には高額になることがあるため、投資家は基本と評価の両方を理解することが重要です。

Outlines

00:00

🌏 中国経済の現状と成長要因

第1段落では、中国経済の現状と成長要因について詳述されています。中国経済は底を打ち、米消費者の回復と欧州での需要増が見られるとのポジティブな見解が示されていますが、全体としては緩やかな成長と低いインフレーションが続き、成長は均等でないという状況が指摘されています。中国政府は経済をデジタル化とグリーン分野に重点を移し、産業自動化とグリーンエフォートを通じて成長を促していると語られています。さらに、中国は世界半分の産業ロボットを有しており、電池、EV、太陽光パネルなどの分野で世界市場をリードし、それらを海外に輸出しようとしています。しかし、不動産市場の過剰供給が問題視されており、政府はその解決を図る必要があるとされています。

05:02

🏗 中国不動産市場の現状と対策

第2段落では、中国の不動産市場の問題と解決策が議論されています。中国は量の減少に直面しており、価格の調整が必要とされています。都市化の促進、移住者の戸籍制限の緩和、開発業者の統合などが提案されています。政府は強力な開発業者を支援し、不良建設の住宅を放置し、良い住宅に対する国民の信頼を高めることで市場を回復させる方針です。さらに、外国資本の流入を促進し、国内消費を刺激するIPOや資本市場の活性化が求められています。投資家には中国での投資機会について、国内経済に関連する分野に注目するようアドバイスされており、アジア全体を通じての貿易増加にも注目がされています。

Keywords

💡デジタル化

デジタル化とは、物事をデジタル技術を用いて効率化し、自動化することを指します。ビデオでは、中国政府が産業部門におけるデジタル化を推進し、自動化を通じてより効果的で競争力のある産業を目指していると述べられています。これは中国経済の発展において重要なテーマであり、産業のグローバル競争力を強化する戦略の一つと言えるでしょう。

💡グリーンエフォート

グリーンエフォートとは、環境保護と持続可能な発展を促進する取り組みを指します。ビデオでは、中国が電池、電気自動車（EV）、太陽光パネルなど、グリーン技術の分野でリードを目指していると説明されています。これは中国経済の成長ドライバーの一つであり、グローバルに影響を及ぼす重要なテーマです。

💡不動産市場

不動産市場とは、不動産の売買や賃貸に関する市場を指します。ビデオでは、中国における不動産市場の問題が取り上げられており、供給過剰の問題が指摘されています。これは中国経済全体の健康状態に大きな影響を与える要素であり、政府が取り組む課題の一つです。

💡過剰生産能力

過剰生産能力とは、市場需要を超える生産能力を有することです。ビデオでは、中国が太陽光パネルや電池、EVなどの分野で過剰生産能力を抱えている可能性があると述べられています。これは市場の競争力を損なうだけでなく、マージンにも影響を与えるとされているため、重要な問題です。

💡都市化

都市化とは、人口が都市部に集まる現象を指します。ビデオでは、中国が都市化率をさらに向上させることで不動産市場を活性化する戦略を検討していると述べられています。これは中国経済の発展において重要な要素であり、都市化を促進することで経済成長を促進する可能性があります。

💡外資誘致

外資誘致とは、外国からの投資を誘致することを指します。ビデオでは、中国市場において外国資本の流入を促進する必要性が強調されています。これは中国経済の成長を促進する上で重要な要素であり、外国企業との協力関係を強化する戦略として位置付けられています。

💡国内需要

国内需要とは、国内における商品やサービスの需要を指します。ビデオでは、中国政府が国内消費を促進することで経済成長を支援する方針を示しており、これは中国経済の発展において重要な戦略です。特に、都市化と関連する商品やサービスにおいては、国内需要の拡大が期待されます。

💡経済成長ドライバー

経済成長ドライバーとは、経済成長を促進する要因を指します。ビデオでは、産業自動化やグリーンエフォートが中国経済の成長ドライバーとして挙げられています。これらの分野での進展は、中国経済の持続可能な成長に寄与すると同時に、グローバル経済にも影響を及ぼすとされています。

💡通貨供給

通貨供給とは、経済において流通している貨幣の量を指します。ビデオでは、中国における貯蓄率の向上が経済成長に貢献する可能性があると述べられており、これは通貨供給に関連する重要な要素です。貯蓄率の低下により、消費や投資が促進され、経済活動が活性化する可能性があります。

💡経済の見通し

経済の見通しとは、将来の経済状況についての予測や見解を指します。ビデオでは、中国政府が輸出や国内ビジネスの姿勢に関する見通しを示すことが経済成長に重要な役割を果たすと述べられています。経済の見通しが明確であるほど、企業や個人が投資や消費を進める意欲が高まり、経済活動が活性化する可能性があります。

Highlights

China's economy is bottoming with some positive signs in logistics and U.S. consumer demand.

Economic growth in China and Europe is sluggish post-COVID with uneven distribution.

Chinese government is focusing on digitalization and industrial automation to boost competitiveness.

China has about half of the world's industrial robots, emphasizing its commitment to automation.

The green effort in China includes a push for dominance in batteries, EVs, and solar panels.

China's investment in the green transition has raised concerns over capacity overproduction in the US and Europe.

China may direct excess capacity to regions like Latin America and Eastern Europe for bilateral trade.

China's nominal GDP growth has slowed significantly compared to historical rates.

Western fiscal stimulus is driving more inflation and nominal GDP growth than in China.

China's savings rate increase could unlock $200-$300 billion in additional spending with improved confidence.

The Chinese government needs to provide clear direction for housing and business strategy post-COVID.

China's real estate market is facing a crisis with an oversupply of 20-30 million homes.

Strategies to address the real estate issue include urbanization, granting more hukou licenses, and developer consolidation.

China needs to attract more foreign capital and improve capital market exits to stimulate growth.

Domestic consumption stories and intra-Asia trade are key opportunities for investors in China.

Intra-Asia trade is increasing, with projections of it reaching the seventies in the next 5-7 years.

Infrastructure investments, such as fiber data centers and transmission lines, can benefit from increased intra-Asia trade.

KKR sees value in focusing on the domestic economy and less on technology sectors in China.

Japan offers an interesting investment opportunity with improving corporate fundamentals and attractive valuations.

Transcripts

We've done different countries with Japan, with India.

Now let's do China. Great.

Just coming back. What did you learn?

You know, I'd say on the positive, the economy is bottoming.

We heard a couple of different data points, I think, from companies in the

logistics business that are seeing the U.S.

consumer pick up a bit. So that was a positive.

And I do think things have bottomed also in Europe and there's a little bit more

demand. But overall, it's still a pretty

sluggish economy, post-COVID, with very low inflation and the growth that is

there is not evenly distributed. There are some areas growing much more

than others, as I understand it. Yeah, we've spent a lot of time.

I've actually been to China four times in the last five quarters, so I'll give

you how I think the evolution of the economy is changing.

Really, a lot of people focus on fixed investment.

They focus on exports. I think the Chinese government is really

repositioning the economy towards a couple of different things.

One is this whole idea of digitalization, particularly as it

relates to the industrial sector. They're trying to automate that sector

to be more effective and more competitive globally.

In the past, I think a lot of people thought about China in terms of

e-commerce, Alibaba, domestic consumption.

The focus right now from the government really is on industrial automation.

China today actually has about half the world's robots on the industrial side,

which is an amazing statistic. The second big driver is around the

green effort and they're trying to really dominate batteries, EVs and solar

panels and that and they're trying to export some of that globally.

So those are really the growth drivers. The offset, which is still problematic,

is around housing. And our estimate is they have somewhere

between kind of 20 and 30 million too many homes.

And so they're trying to clean that out right now.

But that's a disinflationary force and it clearly has an impact on domestic

psychology as well. So what China is investing in in the

green transition has gotten the attention of places like the United

States and Europe, whether it's solar panels or batteries or EVs, because

there's a concern of a build of overcapacity.

Do you see overcapacity and what does that do to margins?

I think what's going to happen around the world right now is, is that

industries such as autos are going to become of national interest.

We've already seen that in technology could expand into other sectors.

So there's definitely going to be sensitivity.

You saw President Biden talked about, you know, increasing the tariffs there.

Europe, I think, is going to do a similar, similar type of strategy.

So you can have capacity. The question is, is where can that

capacity go? I think probably if you're China, you'll

see more of it go into places such as Latin America, other places, maybe

Eastern Europe, where, where or where they have partners, that maybe there's

increasing kind of bilateral trade. That doesn't seem to be the case in the

US in Europe right now. So there is growth.

You found growth there. As you said, it's bottomed out.

At the same time, when you take into account the disinflation, the nominal

GDP actually is not growing at the same rate as in some other places like Europe

and the United States. If I could give an insight to your

viewers. I mean, KKR typically has 150 businesses

around the world, you know, upwards of 200 now where we operate.

You got to focus on nominal revenues, nominal GDP.

What does that mean? It's real GDP plus inflation.

A lot of times the sell side focuses on real GDP.

And what you've seen in China, when I started going there in 1995 and when I

started at KKR, a nominal GDP was in the teens and 20%.

There was a lot of growth and a lot of profit that comes that comes with that.

Today, that number is probably about a third of that.

So you really that inflation component has come down.

And the second thing is on the real GDP, the productivity has come down in

concert with slower labor force growth. So it is a big deal.

At the same time, the Western world has put a huge amount of fiscal stimulus

into the system, and that's driving a little more inflation, a little more

nominal GDP. What about the animal spirits, as it

were? I mean, because there are a lot of

reports that both individual people and corporate may be sitting on their money

a little bit because they don't have the confidence.

Yeah, you've seen about a 300 basis point increase in the savings rate.

China has a high savings rate to start. It's about 28%.

Normally it's upwards of kind of 31, 32%.

So we estimate if that if they were able to bring that savings rate back down by

increasing confidence again, that could add 2 to $300 billion of additional

spending per year, which is pretty meaningful.

So but what's happened is in a post-COVID world, zero COVID, really,

you had some businesses that didn't do as well during that period.

I think people are looking for a little more direction around the housing market

as well as around just what's the strategy for both exports and and

domestic business posture. And so I think the more the government

can encourage that kind of visibility around the where they're going to go,

their better, it will be for overall both domestic growth as well as is

global growth. Remember, China still even in a in its

current state, is still about 25% of global growth, which is just a massive

number. So so let's turn to the question of what

China can and should do. As you mentioned, real estate in all the

times and nobody talks about China these days without that.

Talk about the real estate problem. Yeah, how bad is it?

What do they need to do? So what we did is we went back and

looked at a bunch of different housing crisis issues to see what the best path

is. And you usually have two, two different

factors. One is price and one is volume.

China has had a real slowdown in volume. They probably need to have a little more

in the form of price. So that will be a headwind.

So what can they do? One is they can actually encourage more

urbanization. They still have a ways to go with their

urbanization rate, kind of 66%. Get that north of 70.

That'll be one thing. Second is you could grant more licenses

to the migrant population, which is actually very meaningful.

It's called hukou, and you can give them permits that would allow them to take up

more permanent residence. Those are easy supply side reforms.

Nothing's easy, but you could do that. The third thing I would do is I would

consolidate the number of developers. They have too many developers, and I

would really back the strong ones, and I would do a little more of a government

guarantee where one is I probably would abandon some of the weaker homes that

are poorly constructed homes and just raise those.

But then I would invest and create visibility around the good homes so that

the Chinese population feel strong about that.

And to the government's credit, what they came out with last week was about a

$50 billion stimulus to do exactly that. What's to say to the capital markets in

China right now? What do they need in order to really get

their growth going again? I think they need to get more foreign

capital to come back into the region. That has really slowed down.

Foreign direct investments, really dropped off a cliff.

It's really fallen off dramatically. So there are a couple of things you

could do. One is, I think you could have more

domestic consumption stories around in the capital markets in the form of IPOs

in the A-share market. That's their their local market.

The second is, I do think it's not just about bringing capital in.

You also have to have exits of companies so that people can access the capital

markets. And probably broadening that is not a

bad, bad strategy overall. So talk to our investors and give them a

little advice here, if you could. KKR has been a player in China for a

good long time. You know your way around over there.

Where are there opportunities right now in China?

Is this a time to be looking for some places to go into China or increase your

exposure? We've been very focused on things around

the domestic economy. So think about lighting efficiency in

lighting pads, veterinarian clinics, beverages, things that are going to

continue as the Chinese population enjoys the benefits of urbanization and

growth. Probably less so in areas such as

technology. For anybody that's interested in Asia

overall, I think one of the mega themes is intra Asia trade.

What's happening is since COVID, you've really seen China and its peers trading

more with each other. It's becoming more like the Europe and

the U.S. So in 1990, about 48% of our trade in

Asia was was intra Asia. Today, that number is meaningfully

higher. We think it's going to be in the

seventies within the next 5 to 7 years. And that is what we heard from CEOs in

not only in China but in Japan, as well as what we hear in India.

So I'd really focus on the infrastructure around that fiber data

centers, transmission lines, roads, ways that that companies can benefit from

that trend. And we're doing that through our

infrastructure business, our private equity business.

Our credit business is lending to those companies to allow them to grow.

That's a great way to do it. Overall, we continue to, like Asia, say

it's about a third of our business and we have a dominant position there and

we've really enjoyed understanding. I think you have to be able to look at

relative value in Asia right now. China is, you know, some people have

moved out of China and India, but that does get reflected in valuation.

So there's this intersection between fundamentals and between valuations.

And I would just encourage your your listeners to make sure that they

understand both India is a great long term market, but it can be expensive at

times. China right now is obviously had some

bumps in the road, but it's actually trading at a pretty attractive

valuation. Japan is probably the most interesting

because it's cheap and their fundamentals around corporate reform are

really improving. So those are probably some tips to

consider as you think about the region.