'It's on - what will the 2024 election be like?'

Summary

In this episode of 'Electoral Dysfunction,' hosts Beth and Ruth discuss the unexpected announcement of a July 4th election by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. They delve into the possible reasons behind the sudden decision, speculate on the upcoming six-week campaign, and address the technicalities of what happens with Parliament during this period. The conversation also touches on the human aspect of politics, the challenges faced by MPs, and the potential impact of the election on the country. Amidst the serious discussion, they also comment on the PM's optics during his announcement, highlighting the importance of presentation in politics.

Takeaways

• 📅 The Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, has called for a snap election on July 4th, catching many by surprise.
• ☕️ Beth, one of the speakers, mentions her personal routine of needing two cups of tea before moving on to coffee, indicating a change in her day due to the election announcement.
• 🎥 There is a discussion about the secrecy surrounding the election call, with Beth giving credit to Rishi Sunak for keeping it under wraps.
• 🗣️ There is speculation about why the election is being held now, with theories ranging from economic factors to potential scandals.
• 💬 Mention of a rumor about more scandals potentially emerging ('SAS in the pipeline'), suggesting that preempting bad news might be a reason for the sudden election call.
• 🏛️ The dissolution of Parliament is discussed, with the official campaign starting after the dissolution on May 31st.
• 📉 The transcript touches on economic issues such as inflation rates and wage growth, suggesting these are factors in the election timing.
• 🌧️ The poor optics of Rishi Sunak's speech, delivered in the rain, are criticized, with suggestions that it might negatively impact his campaign.
• 📉 There is concern expressed about the need for a clearer narrative from the Labour party, beyond just the promise of 'change'.
• 🤝 The potential for tactical voting and the importance of local campaigns in securing a majority are highlighted as key aspects of the election strategy.
• 👥 Personal stories and the human aspect of politics are also discussed, with the impact of the election call on MPs' personal lives and relationships being considered.

Q & A

Why did Rishi Sunak decide to call for an election on July 4th?

The transcript suggests several theories: Sunak may need a new narrative as he hasn't clearly articulated why he called the election; there might be positive financial news that he wants to capitalize on, such as inflation rates dropping; there could be upcoming scandals that he wants to preempt; and there may be internal party pressure or defections that he's trying to address by calling the election sooner rather than later.

What was the reaction of MPs when they realized the election was happening?

Many MPs were unhappy and shocked. Some were texting the hosts of the podcast, expressing disbelief and concern, calling the decision 'madness'. There was also a sense of sadness as some MPs were saying goodbye to colleagues they've worked with for years, realizing their political careers might be ending abruptly.

How did the hosts of the podcast describe the mood in the Labour party upon the announcement of the election?

The initial mood in the Labour party was a mix of pep and anticipation, with a sense of finally getting what they had been asking for. However, there was also a feeling of shock and the realization that the election campaign will be a challenging period.

What is the significance of the phrase 'who dares wins' mentioned in the transcript?

The phrase 'who dares wins' was used by Michael Gove in cabinet, which is a motto of the SAS. It signifies a bold and daring approach, suggesting that the Prime Minister and his team are ready to take bold steps and are confident in their victory. However, it also carries historical context, as Michael Portillo used the same phrase before losing a leadership election.

What are the challenges that the Labour party faces in the upcoming election campaign?

The Labour party faces the challenge of setting a clear narrative for the election. They need to go beyond just promising change and lay out their vision for the country. Additionally, they must perform well under pressure and scrutiny, as they are expected to win but could face criticism if they do not meet high expectations.

Why was the decision to hold the election in the summer described as 'brave' by some?

The decision to hold the election in the summer is considered brave because it goes against the traditional timing of elections in the fall. Summer elections are less common and could be seen as a bold move to catch the opposition off guard.

What does the term 'candidate's disease' refer to in the context of the election?

The term 'candidate's disease' refers to the feeling of uncertainty and anxiety that every candidate experiences during an election campaign. It's the fear that they might lose, which is particularly strong right after the election is announced but tends to lessen as the campaign progresses.

How did the hosts of the podcast describe the optics of Rishi Sunak's announcement of the election?

The hosts criticized the optics of Rishi Sunak's announcement, pointing out that he was drenched in the rain, which could be seen as a poor visual metaphor. They also mentioned that the setting and the circumstances of the announcement were not well planned and could negatively impact public perception.

What is the significance of the Victims Bill mentioned in the transcript?

The Victims Bill is significant legislation that includes provisions for compensation and is aimed at supporting victims of crime. It has been a focus of substantial work and effort by MPs, and its potential failure to pass could lead to public uproar.

What does the term 'uniform swing' mean in the context of election predictions?

The term 'uniform swing' refers to the idea that if a political party gains support in one area, it will gain support by the same proportion in other areas as well. However, the hosts point out that this is not necessarily the case, as tactical voting and regional differences can lead to varying results.

What is the role of the Prime Minister's campaign team in the election?

The Prime Minister's campaign team is responsible for strategizing and executing the campaign, including messaging, optics, and overall planning. They play a crucial role in managing the Prime Minister's image and ensuring the campaign's success.

What is the process that will take place after the announcement of the election?

After the announcement, Parliament will continue to sit until Friday, and then it will dissolve on the following Thursday. The official election campaign, known as the short campaign, will start on May 31st, when spending rules and other regulations come into effect.

How will the dissolution of Parliament affect MPs and their staff?

After the dissolution, MPs are no longer MPs but become candidates in the election. Their staff can continue to work on casework, and MPs are expected to maintain their duties, including helping constituents with inquiries and issues.

What is the significance of Craig Mackinlay's return to Parliament after his battle with sepsis?

Craig Mackinlay's return to Parliament after losing his hands and feet to sepsis is significant as it highlights his resilience and determination. He aims to raise awareness about sepsis and its preventability, and his case underscores the importance of seeking medical attention promptly for potentially life-threatening conditions.

Outlines

00:00

🗣️ Surprise Election Announcement

The paragraph discusses the unexpected announcement of a July 4th election by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, which catches everyone off guard. Beth and Ruth, the speakers, share their personal experiences and reactions to the sudden news. They delve into the rumors and the atmosphere of disbelief that surrounded the announcement, highlighting the secrecy with which Sunak managed the situation. The paragraph also touches on the immediate implications for Parliament and the political campaigns that are about to unfold.

05:00

🤔 Speculations on Election Timing

This paragraph delves into the reasons behind the surprise election call. The speakers, Ruth and Beth, theorize that Sunak may be trying to capitalize on positive economic indicators, such as falling inflation rates and consecutive months of wage growth over inflation. They also speculate on potential scandals that could have influenced the timing and discuss the discontent within Sunak's party, including rumors of defections and a possible confidence vote against the Prime Minister. The paragraph also mentions the impact on MPs who are now facing an immediate election campaign, disrupting their plans and personal farewells.

10:04

📉 Political and Economic Implications

The speakers continue to dissect the political climate, discussing the dissatisfaction among MPs and the potential reasons for Sunak's decision to hold an election now. They touch on the economy, suggesting that despite positive indicators, the public may not feel any better off. The paragraph also addresses the challenges Sunak faces, including the inability to fulfill promises such as the deportation flights to Rwanda and the pressure from the Bank of England's monetary policy. The conversation highlights the human aspect of politics, as friendships and long-term working relationships are abruptly interrupted by the election call.

15:06

🌧️ Optics of the Election Launch

This paragraph focuses on the visual and symbolic aspects of the election announcement. The speakers critique the decision to hold the announcement outside in poor weather conditions, which led to the Prime Minister being drenched in rain. They discuss the impact of this on the public's perception and how it might be remembered more than the content of the announcement itself. The paragraph also contrasts this with the more polished and professional appearance of the opposition leader, Keir Starmer, highlighting the potential political implications of these optics.

20:07

📣 Campaign Narratives and Public Expectations

The conversation shifts to the upcoming election campaign, with a focus on the narratives that will be presented by both Sunak and Starmer. The speakers predict that Sunak will emphasize the choice between stability and change, while Starmer will campaign on a platform of 'change.' They also discuss the challenges each party faces, including the need for the Labour party to define its vision for the country and the pressure on Sunak to present a compelling argument for his continued leadership. The paragraph underscores the importance of setting the right narrative and the risks of focusing solely on negative campaigning.

25:09

🏛️ Parliamentary Process and Personal Impact

This paragraph outlines the procedural aspects of the election process, including the dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign. The speakers discuss the continuation of MPs' work for their constituents during the transition from MPs to candidates. They also touch on personal stories of MPs affected by the sudden election call, such as Craig McKinley, who returned to Parliament after a severe bout of sepsis that required the amputation of his limbs. The paragraph highlights the resilience and determination of MPs in the face of personal adversity and the demands of the political process.

30:10

📅 Election Campaign Logistics and Future Plans

The final paragraph addresses the logistics of the upcoming election campaign, with a focus on the timeline and the activities of the speakers. They discuss the immediate plans for the campaign, including the recording of 'electoral dysfunction' and their roles in covering the election for Sky News. The paragraph concludes with a reflection on the uncertainty of the future and the commitment of the speakers to continue their political engagement and commentary throughout the campaign.

Keywords

💡Election

The term 'election' refers to a formal process of choosing a person to hold public office. In the video's context, it is the central theme as the hosts discuss the surprise announcement of a July 4th election in the UK. The hosts explore various aspects of this election, including the reasons behind the timing, the political implications, and the reactions from different stakeholders.

💡Parliament

Parliament is the legislative body of a government, responsible for making laws. In the script, the term is used to discuss the procedural aspects of the election, such as the dissolution of the current Parliament and the subsequent campaign period. The hosts also mention the impact on Members of Parliament (MPs) and their transition from their roles as lawmakers to candidates.

💡Prime Minister

The 'Prime Minister' is the head of government in a parliamentary system. The script discusses Rishi Sunak, the UK's Prime Minister, and his decision to call for an election. The hosts analyze his motivations, the challenges he faces, and how his leadership and campaign strategies might influence the election's outcome.

💡Dissolving Parliament

Dissolving Parliament refers to the process of ending a session of Parliament before a general election. In the script, it is mentioned that Parliament will continue to sit until Friday and dissolve the following Thursday, marking the official start of the election campaign and transitioning MPs into candidates.

💡Campaign

A 'campaign' in this context is a series of planned activities aimed at influencing public opinion and securing electoral victory. The hosts discuss the upcoming six-week campaign period, the strategies that might be employed by the political parties, and the importance of narrative and messaging in engaging voters.

💡Inflation

Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, the purchasing power of currency is falling. The script mentions recent positive economic news with inflation rates falling, which is a key issue for the electorate's perception of the government's economic management.

💡Confidence Vote

A 'confidence vote' is a parliamentary motion that tests the support of the majority of the members of a legislative body for the government or a particular policy. The script refers to speculation about a potential confidence vote in the Prime Minister, indicating political instability and challenges to his leadership.

💡Sepsis

Sepsis is a serious medical condition caused by the body's response to infection, leading to inflammation throughout the body. The script discusses personal experiences with sepsis and the story of Craig McKinley, a Conservative MP who had to have his limbs amputated due to the condition. His case highlights the importance of awareness and prevention of sepsis.

💡Tactical Voting

Tactical voting occurs when voters choose to vote for a candidate they do not necessarily support in order to prevent another candidate from winning. The script suggests that tactical voting could play a significant role in the election, with implications for the distribution of seats and the potential for a party to form a majority.

💡Optics

In the context of politics and media, 'optics' refers to how an event or situation is perceived visually, which can influence public opinion. The script criticizes the visual presentation of the Prime Minister's election announcement, suggesting that poor optics could negatively impact the public's perception of his leadership and campaign.

💡Candidate's Disease

The term 'candidate's disease' refers to the common feeling among candidates during an election campaign that they might lose, despite their best efforts. The script mentions this phenomenon, illustrating the psychological impact of campaigning and the universal concern among candidates about the election outcome.

Highlights

Unexpected election announcement and its impact on the hosts and MPs.

The hosts share their initial disbelief and reactions to the election news.

Discussion on Rishi Sunak's decision to call an election and the secrecy surrounding it.

Speculation about the reasons behind the sudden election call, including financial and political motivations.

Mentions of potential scandals and their influence on the timing of the election.

Reflection on the human aspect of politics, with goodbyes and friendships affected by the election.

Analysis of the political climate and the challenges faced by both major parties.

Concerns about the Prime Minister's ability to campaign effectively.

The importance of setting a narrative for the election and the potential pitfalls for the Labour party.

The significance of the election campaign launch and the optics of Rishi Sunak's announcement.

Criticism of the campaign launch strategy and its potential impact on public perception.

The role of tradition in political campaigning and its relevance in modern elections.

Insights into the workings of Parliament and the process following the election call.

The continuation of MPs' work for their constituents despite the election campaign.

Plans for Sky News' election night coverage featuring the hosts and other prominent figures.

The emotional impact of the election on MPs and candidates, including the fear of losing their seats.

Transcripts

how many drinks do you have

there I haven't had my morning tea so I

need really two cups of tea then I move

on to Coffee by I've gone the other way

Everything's changed

overnight right should we start yeah

okay hello here we are this wasn't quite

what we were expecting welcome to

electoral dysfunction this is me Beth

I'm recovering from a worldwind day it

was only when I saw myself on the news

reported it that I believed it to be

true anyway uh chess where were you I

had such

disbelief that he was going to call an

election yesterday that it wasn't really

until about 11:00 at night and when I

walked out of Westminster you know

potentially for the very last time I

sort of don't believe it so yeah here we

are and Ruth where were you when you

realized July 4th was actually happening

so I was uh on my way to give a speech

at veterans event in Edinburgh our

podcast recording was supposed to be

recorded yesterday i' I'd walked off a

train cuz I got the phone called to say

oh no we're not doing that best been

said to stand outside number 10 mute has

arrived we are going to talk about that

why has sunak decided to go now what can

we expect from the next 6 weeks and also

what about the technical stuff what

happens now what happens with Parliament

how does the campaign start and also uh

the WhatsApp phone and the inbox have

been red hot uh since rishy sunac got

soaking wet on Downing Street as he

confirmed a July 4th election I hope

that Suits been to the dry cleaners he

was absolutely drenched we'll come back

to that you can WhatsApp voice note us

on 07934

20004 or email us electoral dysfunction

at sky.

should we start with a rumor meal there

was a frenzy wasn't there and I was

getting some information from my sources

but it wasn't information that I could

say yes or no I just didn't know no one

knew what really freaked me out though

or made me feel very anxious I felt

quite sick at the beginning of the day

cuz it's the anxiety of not known like

once you're going to the races off you

go you put your hat on you get suit on

you out the door um but what I was

getting was from people that would

normally quietly turn me away from these

election rumors I just had radio silence

or non denials and it made me really

really nervous and I thought something

something's going on but at the same

time it was hard to imagine that he was

actually going to call it then for all

of the reasons we've discussed in theast

I genuinely I'm going to cut rishy sunak

a tiny bit of slack and give him some

credit here is that I have never known a

politician pull off a secret like rishy

sunak genuinely nobody saw this coming

so he obviously keeps Good Counsel is

what I would say tell rishy sunak your

secrets he's keeping him there were a

few things that were a foot because

Cameron had been on a trip and came I

think it was wasn't it they put a

massive poster of him up and then he

just put it off came back early Grant

shaps cancelled a trip and then there

were other bits and pieces that were

really ramping this up that we were

getting yesterday so then one former

cabinet minister found me and said you

know he had all the civil servants in

last week talking about the timing of

election so they were telling him if you

want to go in the summer you've either

got to do it this week or the first

three days after we come back from

Recess because otherwise it'll be too

late because you got to have a certain

period of notice then someone was saying

to me oh no we've just moved cabinet

because um he was in Austria the day

before so there was sort of there were

signs and then there were sort of being

slightly knocked down but not completely

knocked down anyway in a way it's all by

the B cuz we're going now aren't we

we're doing it but look why why now why

on Earth now I mean I've got a bit of uh

Intel on that from number 10 what we

should do is me and Ruth should give you

our theories as to why and then you can

give give us the actual Intel yes okay

Ruth why do you think he's going now

well I think he needs to have a story

ready to go cuz he's done the morning

rounds of TV after he's called this

election and it was bold and he's not

known for being courageous and stuff so

it did genuinely catch everyone on the

Hop but he he hasn't actually said why

and I think the problem with that is

that other people will fill in why so

all the speculation is about the idea

that he wanted to have a giveaway budget

in the Autumn or or fiscal statement in

the Autumn but he's got no headro to do

it so there's no money left basically so

he couldn't do anything so a bit of good

uh financial news on on Wednesday in

that inflation's down to 2.3% wages have

been growing for for 9 months

consecutively over inflation so he

thinks people are beginning to feel it

working to be honest I think people will

just say that it was terrible he had

lots of defections he wants to get in

before the boats really ramp up over the

summer and actually the bank of

England's uh mon policy committees not

really playing ball with bringing

interest rates down to match inflation

rates and that might be a late summer

thing so that might be in August but he

can genuinely say now if they go in July

you know we've done our bit we're just

waiting on this to happen and there will

be jam tomorrow as and your your

mortgage rates will come down I

absolutely love that rishy suak thinks

people in the country are obsessing

about the inflation figures he will be

yeah he will be he absolutely he sees

everything in like a sort of

macroeconomic terms and and like people

are going to be like Co it is good that

the milk's only going up by two pence in

the pound like I mean it's just it's

absolutely it's crackers but anyway so

the other thing I think is that I think

that there was potentially about to be

some more scandals and oh have you heard

any uh oh know what I'm not going to say

I think that there was about to be

probably some more scandals of people

who I think are probably going to stand

down in fact they definitely are have

you heard something about this because

you just alerted me to a bat phone

message I got on my phone last night

saying this is from a very senior

conservative Source there was more SAS

in the pipeline uh they said about there

was uh some stuff about bad conduct

problematic behaviors which would go in

to get worse 100% so and I think and

it's people quite close to rishy sunx so

I think it was about to get worse on a

number of fronts and he just thought

it yeah and I can say actually hat

tip to richy soon because my entire

political career is just going it

let's just give it a go well

so so from from MP's points of view I I

think it's fair to say Ruth I'm sure

you've picked up a bit of this people

are really really really unhappy I was

in Downing Street I had uh former

cabinet ministers MPS texting me going

what is he doing this is absolute

Madness from their point of view there

was one minut Minister uh who said to me

that they thought that he could be

facing a confidence vote or that the

letters were going in again that was

what one person said so it's from a

position of weakness well hilariously

apparently since he's called it more and

more letters have gone in because

although he's had it approved by the

palace actually parliament's like wash

up hasn't finished yet so parliament's

not been shot so they know I I can't

even say it I think I'm saying these

words out loud this group of people have

been such Paper Tigers at any of the

that they could have stepped in and

really done something think they can now

do a rear guard action to stop a general

election once Pandora out the bloody box

this is from one of my uh sources really

late last night which was there's a lot

going around on some WhatsApp groups

about how there is still a route to stop

a general election this person says they

are utterly clueless and we are in deep

trouble but also I have to say at the 22

last night um I was told that a sitting

Minister asked publicly whether they

could submit a letter of no confidence

uh I do know who it is I'm not going to

say who it is or should I say who it is

yeah go on yeah I mean I've got it from

three sources I I was told it was Andrew

leadsom that doesn't surprise me because

ledum is what you know like whether I

think that this is a stupid thing to do

she is somebody with balls like she's

she she she she stands and says what she

thinks well Andrea I asked Andrea I

didn't put her name out last night cuz I

wanted to check with her first because I

did have it from three sources anyway

she uh basically said basically she got

back to me and said it's a private

meeting discussions are confidential

which which it is uh but also also uh

leaks but she didn't deny it um it's

just extra the she would never lie to

you no but also the Optics can you

imagine that like a minister standing up

in front of the party going Can I submit

a letter of no confidence in the Prime

Minister a former candidate that got

down to the last toe Min to bee Minister

leer know we've rolled through so many I

was I just had to Che myself there for a

second but but I think you know for me

some of the sad part is you saw other

people like Tracy Crouch who went on

Twitter to to kind of publicly say um

you know I thought I had an extra six

months cuz she'd already announced she

was standing down she'd been a sports

Minister she'd had cancer she's got

young kids like there was a whole load

of reasons why she was standing down

she's like God there was some stuff I

still wanted to do some questions I

still wanted to ask yesterday most of my

afternoon

was and people won't realize this at all

was saying goodbye to people who I've

been friends with for like a decade

people you have been in a scrum in a

difficult time like when Joe died know

imagine being in that room and and

they're not from my political party but

saying goodbye I didn't see Tracy crch

and I texted her this morning and just

said I feel like I've been robbed of

saying goodbye to you I I gave Alex

chalk a cuddle in the T room at like

10:00 last night explain who he is Alex

chalk is the Secretary of State for

justice his seat is his seat is chelam

he he had a majority of like in the

hundred I mean he is totally gone he's a

nice guy though isn't he and some of

these people like you know I wouldn't

vote for them don't get me wrong but to

suddenly have to imagine your business

is just shutting today and people you've

worked with for a decade you're going to

walk away from them you all live in

different parts of the country I felt

genuine sad this is something that you

know in the cut and thrust of politics

and doing what I do this is what we

don't talk about that much but it's the

sort of human aspect of it because

suddenly you know turning on a six pence

all of these MPS who thought they had a

few months before an election to get

their house in order suddenly they're

like we're in a campaign I could lose my

job I haven't had chance to say goodbye

to my friends it's absolutely brutal

isn't it just coming in though as we are

talking just about the flights the

reason I know this in the recording is

someone has sent this to me uh Rishi

sunak confirms Rwanda flights will not

take off before the election if I'm

elected I'll get the flights off after

the election he says preparations for

the first flights will go on regardless

of the election someone just sent this

to me from the conservative benches with

one word terrible yeah yeah so look this

was uh one of the reasons that some of

his MPS thought he might be going that

he doesn't get the flights away he said

he'd get them away in the summer have

they been snared up yeah I mean I think

that we're getting to the why and by by

the weekend we'll we'll have all the

wise whether it's scandals that were

going to come out whether it's flights

Logistics weren't going to take off can

I just say though I I actually I think

you can level many things at the prime

minister's door I don't think selfish is

necessarily what I would use because I

don't think he would be choosing a time

where he thinks the largest number of

his MPS will go he'll be thinking that

you know summer there's a feel-good

factor we're about to get into the well

Scotland will have qualified for the

quarterfinals little England might have

done they might not have for the quarter

finals of the Dig there oh come on you

guys are heavily tipped to top your

group and and get a lot further than the

quarters um but but you know I'm not

going to get to watch it now am I though

no no so if there are any parliamentary

candidates in Scotland who've got

tickets for Germany that now can't take

them off do get in touch cuz I'll

happily take them off your hands for you

but I don't think the Prime Minister was

being selfish with this and also I don't

think allowing a couple of hundred

people to get an extra six months wages

in terms of MPS actually is selfishness

I think I think MPS worrying about where

the six months wages are coming from

that could be considered selfish well

for what it's worth I can give you a bit

of what the spin machine was spinning at

me

yesterday so some some things I picked

up was that um there had been these

discussions going on we all knew that we

felt it had sort of dis ipated a bit

after the locals the sort of immediate

threat to his authority had dissipated

and actually the party I would say is

appear dare I say it almost a little bit

you know better behaved since the local

elections right so at that point

journalistically you think n it looks

like it looks like the kind of Summer

election is over Ruth laughing at me but

she believed it too baby I just I I just

think that calling two defections in two

weeks including crossing the Flor

directly before pmqs has better behaved

no I know know how bad it's gone yeah I

mean that the Baseline keeps dropping so

what I what I've picked up is that there

was this finely balanced decision that

there were these discussions going on

summer autumn summer autumn apparently

Oliver daen the Deputy Prime Minister

was very keen to go early and he's very

close to the PM as is Alex chalk

actually who we were talking about

earlier I heard that Isaac lovo who's

the actual campaign Chief Linton

Crosby's prote we were talking about in

the pig on the way to Market Barnacles

off your boats apparently he wanted to

go long because maybe as Ruth was

talking about last swe he wanted to hone

the message apparently the Prime

Minister took loads of soundings from

different people it is his decision and

his decision alone right uh and I think

that probably a handful of people would

have taken that decision in the room

that would have been James fory his

political secretary and Bei mate used to

be the political editor of The Spectator

there would have been Liam boo Smith his

chief of staff you know barely anyone in

the room when he decides it right so why

did they go

now part of what we touched on earlier

about the economy right is there's been

10 months of wage growth and 10 months

of falling inflation it's now to 2.3%

which is near the bank of England Target

do people feel any better off no and

also everybody's tied in my mortgage

went up to nearly ,000 a month and it's

like I'm tied in for 5 years so even if

they had reduced the interest rate

actually going to annoy most of the

people who've got there they can't and

this is exactly it so I was chatting

with someone who was sort of we were

talking about this cuz I was saying hang

on a minute I thought you were going to

wait for this upturn of the economy and

I think what might be going on is a sort

of admission within all of this that one

people are not going to feel materially

better off under Rishi Sun's economic

plan in Autumn or summer right so you

might not get the interest rate cut

people had locked in anyway with

mortgages many people there isn't the

headro necessarily to do another tax cut

in the Autumn right so you're going to

say my plan is working and everyone's

like yeah you've been saying that for a

few months we don't feel it right so

there's that and Ruth exactly what you

were saying with the flights so he said

I'm going to get the flights away and

then you get to the Autumn and maybe the

flights haven't got away or the boats

are still coming so his pitch into the

election is it's a choice right and he

can go in and say I'm going to get the

flights away in the summer my economic

plan is working choose me or risk it

with that bloke so in a way they had to

weigh up when to go and and they went

for July but I think the issue as well

is you're also looking at the polls and

seeing there are consistent double digit

polling for reform catching them on the

Hop because they don't have the

infrastructure of big parties is

probably in the t's favor and and

reducing that will help also I I I think

there is more money in the war chest for

the Tories than labor my worry for this

election is it's going to be an awful

lot of people telling you why not to

vote for other people and I think in kir

starmer's view he's got the change thing

you know it's on his lect turns he says

it all the time but he hasn't got the

Hopey change thing we need more of the

The Hope from him of what he's going to

do and you're going to get a lot from Ry

sunak saying he's a flip flopper he

doesn't believe in anything he's gone

back in everything he ever say but then

you've also got K starmer that's going

to that's going to speak about the Prime

Minister not having delivered nothing in

the

works anymore blah blah blah so that the

targets for each are huge and somewhere

in there some election strategist or

advis is going to have to tell them to

tell people what you will do as well not

just what the other guy is going to do

badly well this is what one of sunak uh

people said to me about it last night

about the time in and why now they said

he's not afraid and he's completely and

utterly confident his confident that his

values and principles are aligned with

that of the public and he needs to

prosecute uh that argument I got to tell

you what Michael go said in cabinet cuz

you're going to enjoy this MH because I

know that you both love Michael go I get

on well with Michael he's he's good

company he's very good company he a r on

but what did he say in cabinet in

cabinet he said cuz I was quoted this

from one of sunak teams you're going to

love this he said in

cabinet who dares wins and you dare and

you are going to win I think Michael

shares an assessment the polls are quite

poor I think would be a euphemistically

way of putting it but also Michael Gove

is a bit of a political historian and

there is no way that he would have given

that quote without knowing that the last

person that invoked the SAS Mantra of

who dares wins was

Portillo and you know about elections

and Portillo one not becoming the leader

and flunking a leadership election and

two the Portillo moment in 1997 you

saying that trolling the Minister I'm

I'm not sure if he I mean I don't know

how cognizant he was at the time but

he's a dreadful flatterer oh you're oh

you're so brave prime minister oh and

whoever dares wins and you'll win blah

blah blah like I mean that is clear

Michael go I mean he's a dreadful

flatterer I love it I mean oh yeah me

too I fall for it every time smoke up

your ass every time he sees you it's

wonderful but yes I mean there is no way

that he won't make the reference with

Michael

portello well look let's let's move on

to the Optics of it

Jesus I was watching it and genuinely

whilst it was going on I I was just

reminded of the Teresa may speech where

she lost her voice and the set fell

apart oh my God no I was in the audience

for that that is literally the worst

Poli like honestly I mean I I don't

actually think I felt worse like I had

to leave the I was just watching it on a

television screen and I had to leave the

room and I felt a bit similar about

watching rishy sunak getting at why on

Earth would you not just get man with a

Broly to stand next to you because

you're on the rich list and you can't

have somebody standing with a Broly like

you one yourself well well one you could

open or you could just do it inside have

a set inside there's a few things about

it that I thought we realize that

there's there's going to be a statement

the whole press pack are now kind of

descending on Downing Street I mean you

know it's serious when like the big TV

anchors turn up and it was absolutely

pissing it down I mean I was Absolut

abolutely drenched and also I know this

is not important to anyone but me but my

Bob gets all fluffy and it really upsets

me I am going to buy some hair

straighteners that are rechargeable so

wherever I am I do not have a fluffy

Bob it was really unclear to me whether

he was going to come out and do the

podium or do it inside and I just

thought he's going to have to do this

inside so I'm on tellan I couldn't sort

of say I said it's going to be a

statement from Downing Street then the

podium guy as we call him came out and

the speakers came out I was like wow

he's coming out and there's a little

break in the rain and he comes out and

then it just starts chucking it down and

the Optics of a prime minister calling a

summer election on the basis that there

will be a brighter future with the

conservatives with storm clouds gray

weather drenched in Rain the Optics of

that I would argue that viewers on the

television what they will remember of

that day was the Prime Minister got

absolutely drenched you know he has to

work hard because he's so small and

petite to not look like a work

experienced kid anyway at an oversized

lecturn so the shots from the front look

okay the shots from the side look

terrible just because of the because how

chunky the Le is it chose I don't know

why he's not got a slicer Le to make it

less like that but being absolutely

drenched in his trousers that are still

American and far too short looks awful

but the boilerplate speech which was

uninspired that also talks about how

he's got a plan and the other guy hasn't

okay if your plan is so great why are

you planning to be outside in a

thunderstorm when your other man who

apparently got no plan has got like a

lovely presidential Podium and he's

inside and he's quite dry yeah this is

it honestly Ruth this is exactly what he

thought when I was doing I I was like

you're saying you have a plan but it

looks like you can't orchestrate this in

a way that doesn't look like a kind of

scene from a comedy show what was also

going on was that there was a massive

speaker at the bottom of downst Street

as he was speaking blaring out dreams

things can only get better which was of

course the anthem of Tony Blair's uh

1997 campaign and win and I think that

was putting the Prime Minister off a bit

then a few minutes later you get starma

and they've like mocked up the prime

minister's briefing room for journalists

so he's got wood paneling behind him

he's got two flags and he's standing at

electon like he is a prime minister

there's one word on the elector change

he's totally dry and it looks really

slick and professional so look I went

back to someone and said to them why on

Earth did you do it like that I said you

know you're going to get a backlash it

was disastrous the explanation was that

it's traditional that prime ministers

come out and declare

elections at a podium in the street and

that the Prime Minister wanted to do it

like that right so he he wanted it to be

traditional he want he wanted not

because he's on the rich list not to

have a Lackey holding an umbrella he

wouldn't have lost a single vote had he

done either of those things put it

inside nobody would have been like well

I'm not voting for him now because I

like the traditional Downing Street

outing or I'm not voting for him now

because he had someone holding an

umbrella over in the rain right he will

lose votes because of the way he

launched it that's the thing the idea of

tradition and all the rest of it well

that's great and all but like you're the

Prime Minister you make the Traditions

how incompetent do you have to

be to launch a campaign that badly and

how much do you not protect your boss by

allowing him to do it or encouraging him

to do it whoever launched that should

have no more import during this campaign

than making the tea and running to the

shop to get sandwiches have to say Ruth

that you're I really hate it like comms

isn't that hard but people make it hard

you you are you are not alone amongst

conservative colleagues in um relaying

this to me this is a visual business

right that it's symbolism isn't it like

wait for a break in the clouds okay how

hard is that okay well I think that Ruth

and Jess have decided that that was a

pretty dismal start I mean

metaphorically and literally with that

Bloody driving honestly I actually said

to the office at about half 6 I was like

you need to release me and let me back

to the office cuz I was like I'm going

to get a cold I was absolutely anyway

let's take a break for a moment and

we'll be back with some of your

questions and what's in store for the

next 6

weeks the next six weeks we've talked

about the start uh what's this election

going to be about what are the big

themes well for sunak it's about the

choice it's about sticking with him uh

he'll argue that they're turning the

corner on the economy he said from that

Lector as he got drenched now is the

moment for biton to choose its future

and for the prime minister to choose an

umbrella he did not say that bit um and

for starma it's like change actually one

of uh your colleagues just as the PM was

talking sent me a WhatsApp going

there'll be one word on his Elon it will

be changed this election we have One

Singular message change I mean I think

that is going to be the message that is

going to be the narrative um and

actually the narrative for Laborers now

they have a chance to set a narrative I

think the change thing is is brilliant

and it is what people want and that

would have been tested to death but it

that isn't enough so there is now this 6

weeks is the opportunity for the labor

party to go out and talk not I mean

we're not talking about necessarily like

small retail offers or even necessarily

big like we're going to do this but the

narrative is Theirs to set because rishy

sunak I mean actually I think his

narrative has been set by the terrible

Optics of of the way he launched the

campaign but also we can be heard in a

way that he can't be heard a little bit

at the moment and that is a real

opportunity for the labor party it's

also a massive opportunity to mess it up

we've had a WhatsApp from Nicola in

abine who says Ruth will he stay at B

good or does he move to anything else

now well I I mean I think if the polls

are anything to go by he's probably

going to move to unemployed at some

point but I I mean I think he's got to

show himself as a campaigner and I don't

think we've seen that and what's

interesting about this election is that

we've not seen either of them campaign

and Jess is absolutely right there is a

bigger microphone for the labor party

cuz everyone assumes that they're going

to romp to Victory but that comes with

huge danger one it invites scrutiny and

to test things and and one of the

charges that the prime minister laid in

his speech was that you know I don't

know what K starmer is going to do and I

don't think he does either because he's

not told anyone and actually that will

hit home with people however probably

not as much as nothing in Britain bloody

works so you know I I think the worry

that I have is that it's going to be a

depressing election because labor is not

going to want to tell people what going

to do in advance doesn't think it needs

to because it doesn't think it needs to

because it thinks that instead of

winning on things can only get better it

can win on well things can't get much

bloody worse so why not give us a try

now they might be right about that but I

actually think they're doing a

disservice you know to the public if

they don't have a stronger narrative and

lay out what their vision is for the

country and also what they're going to

do Jess what was the mood in the labor

party yesterday I mean the initial mood

so I am very very very close to most of

the people in the shadow cabinet and

nobody has ever infiltrated our WhatsApp

group I just like to say and so i' like

to hold my counsel and with trust in

these people the immediate thing was

like come on let's go and win this sort

of thing it was like pep but in

Westminster amongst the the members of

parliament that I saw it was just a bit

like shell shock as well and we're

saying goodbye to like I mean one of my

very best friends Holly Lynch the MP for

Halifax is standing down

and so the mood was tempered with both

those things but I would say pep and

just look finally like let like we've

all been asking for this it's funny when

you've all been asking for something and

then you get it like on Christmas

morning when you get like the Nintendo

you play it too much and then you're

like oh God actually I I I missed the

outsides uh like it is initially it was

just like we got this thing we were

asking for and it was like come on let's

go and do this I mean going back to the

things about missteps and what could go

wrong for starma and and polls and AR

and stuff like for labor like they have

wanted this election to go now they'd

wanted it in may they were hammering uh

the he's going to chicken out he's not

going to call the election and now they

have got what they wanted what they

wanted I messaged one of starmer's Team

actually last night I went this is great

timing for you isn't it and they

messaged back and said this is great for

the country and that will be the message

right I mean there's going to be a

wobble at some point there's going to be

some form of poll that is going to like

bring it to within single figures or

something like that and it's how does

labor party perform under pressure and

under scrutiny and I personally don't

think either kir starmer or Rishi sunak

are the best campaigners in their

parties so I think there could be a

little bit of maybot type stuff going on

there also let's not forget that labor

need the biggest swing yeah um that

we've seen in I think post-war history

to have a majority of one so I don't for

one second think that it is likely that

the Tories are going to come out of this

as the largest party but but I do think

that you know we just have to remember

that this isn't necessarily A landside

election and if everyone puts that on

the labor party and then suddenly it

looks like they're not then it looks

like they're underperforming and that

narrative can can become quite strong CU

a lot of people only tune in a fortnite

before yeah yeah I absolutely agree with

you and um it's the biggest uniform

swing ever to win an outright majority

it has to be bigger than

12.7% apparently I think that treat is

exactly right that people don't tune in

and week one people are paying a bit of

attention then they don't come back in

until about nine days before yesterday

when I rang my husband and said this is

going to get tiring he said what like he

didn't know that the election had been

called so I just want to a massive shout

out to most of the people in the country

who are are not paying the very close

attention that we think and so there a

couple of big incidences one way or the

other and for Teresa may it was the

nothing has changed moment a couple of

big incidences you'd be surprised how

much of a game change that can make and

so we have to be alive to that however

what you said about uniform swing you

don't need a uniform swing to win that's

the thing because there are going to

there's going to be a ton of tactical

voting so the lib Dems will P up votes

and seats where they're running second H

in Scotland you know labor will do great

in some seats the SNP and tories fight a

lot of the seats and and labor and the

lib Dems are third but a long way behind

so so for quite a lot of the country

you've got a top two and then you've got

it's not three-way races so uniform

swing is a bit of a misnomer you know

there was a reason that I asked starma

again a couple of weeks ago about a lib

Dem tie up because to get a majority is

a huge Endeavor it could be that labor

turn out to be the largest party without

a a clean majority he will not rule out

some sort of deal with the Liv Dems he

just wouldn't do it he did with the the

SNP I mean Jess also he's got the left

of the party as well so if he gets a

small majority he might find himself

pretty hamstrung right yeah yeah

absolutely although I did see some

brilliant analysis that that said if the

polling modeling that said that they

were going to get the the landslide

which I think is a nonsense that

somebody like me could set up an

entirely new political party and still

have enough members of parliament to be

the official opposition and stand

opposite kiss armor every week and just

say what a cracking job job you're doing

so you know it's a plan for the future

you know how worried are you about your

seat um I'm not not worried about my

seat I I think that I will win uh in my

seat but I think it will be a much

harder election than it would have been

a year ago because of the issues with

Gaza to be honest I've got candidates

disease and every single candidate will

have it every Member of Parliament today

even those who've got like a 50,000

majority and weigh their votes you think

you're going to lose like that's the gig

like that's what you do you go into it

like going oh God like all we're

thinking about is the pitfalls in front

of people all we will be talking about

is the power and the strength but the

truth is is every candidate and I won't

know until I'm there so I'm going back

there today and I'm not coming back to

London now that is it for me here I've

got my stuff in a in a paper bag my

knickers and things and I can't really

answer that question that candidate

Titus thing there's a really interesting

Journey that every candidate teach and

when an election is announced everyone

that holds it thinks they're going to

lose and everybody thinks at the

beginning it's going to be such a hard

SLO by the time the votes are counted

even if you know you know that your you

know your goal is to you know to save

your deposit to get 5% or whatever by

the time election day comes around you

always think that you've done enough or

that you righteously should become the

next Member of Parliament for that time

because you've worked so hard your

team's been so good you've done all the

effort you know like everybody thinks by

polling day that they deserve it it's

really interesting jour but also like

just the night when you are actually in

the studio and you are watching we've

got nearly 100 counts actually I should

also just quickly plug you electoral

dysfunctions uh I've got some wonderful

news which is Ruth and I are going to be

on set for Sky News all night on

Election night it's going to be me and

Ruth and Andy Burnham we're going to

have Trevor Phillips as well we've got

Ed Conway on the charts doing all the

graphs and stuff and then Kate Burley is

the anchor baby cof rid and then yes the

next day so that's the overnight show

and then the next day Sophie's anchoring

with the wash up and and day one of

whatever it will be uh with Sam my

colleague Sam coats and we've also got

Adam Bolton coming back baby oh yeah and

there Michael Thrasher doing all the

numbers as a topologist so it genuinely

is pretty heavyweight team you guys I

actually think there's nowhere else to

watch it bab I'm going to go to my count

and I'm going to find the camera and me

my son Danny are going to get on to Sky

News oh

God right so how is it going to play out

next week parliament's going to be

dissolved on the 30th the prime

minister's already been to see the king

Jess what happens between now and then I

was not really cognizant to all the

dissolution of parliament stuff CU I was

so in the zone yesterday what goes on

now so it's a good question that

literally everybody was asking yesterday

and nobody seemed to have the answer so

basically what happens Parliament will

continue to sit until Friday Parliament

doesn't actually dissolve until Thursday

Thursday next week Thursday next week

but nobody will be in there it's not

that they'll be sitting or doing

anything okay so Parliament dissolves

next Thursday but everyone's cleared out

um but that means the official election

campaign doesn't actually kick off the

short campaign we call it so the short

campaign starts I think on the 31st of

May and that's when all the spending

rules and everything come in but I just

want to make it clear to people

listening what this means is that

yesterday I had to say to my staff get

your things and leave we are not allowed

into the building as of Thursday I will

no longer be a member of parliament I

will be a candidate in the election so

the sign outside my office in Yardley I

literally have to put a thing over it

because I'm not an MP anymore so after

dissolution MPS aren't MPS anymore

they're candidates and we had an email

from Sarah thanks for this Sarah she

says my local MP currently is dealing

with a query of mine what happens to

emails inquiries sent to local MPS once

an election's called it's a good

question what happens just it just

carries on don't worry about that I I

carry on doing all of the case work my

staff they continue uh in that role so

don't worry there's absolutely no reason

if anything you do way more casew work

for people during the election because

you're knocking doors and getting a load

of people telling you their problems so

it's absolutely fine it's important to

stress that point that that all of that

work continues I think what's going to

be really interesting for uh up until

Friday so we're we're recording this on

Thursday morning so today and tomorrow

because the Lord is the same we only

kind of do all of the the kind of stuff

we do and then it looking like a 600 p.m

is finish on Friday is what actually

gets done in the war shop because

there's some really chunky legislation

after months when actually not that much

has been passed we got some really

chunky legislation if the victims bill

doesn't get through I mean I think

there's going to be uproar because so

much put into that well also the blood

inquiry um compensation is in the

victims Bill and as somebody who spent

literally I cannot tell you hundreds of

hours writing the Amendments that have

gone into that that stop things like

pedophiles having access to their own

children and things it's not it's not

small fry this stuff this is big stuff

and who knows what's going to happen in

the wash

up one other story I did want to talk

about was Craig McKinley he's the

conservative m p for South anet got a

stand inovation at pmqs when he returned

to Parliament after having both his

hands and feet amputated due to sepsis

he says he wants to be known as the

first

bionic MP I know Craig a bit i' actually

covered that thanet seat when he was

basically fighting off Nigel farage I

knew he'd been really ill I didn't

realize the extent I was shocked

when I saw the interview he did with GB

news it was really it was really moving

um Jess you've also had some personal

experience of sepsis yeah I have I got

sepsis and it nearly killed me I think

it's the biggest killer of women

postpartum and it is so avoidable now I

think Craig McKinley's case was and he

said this in his amazing speech uh in

Parliament yesterday really moving and

uniting as we're about to all be divided

this beautiful uniting how he got

through it without crying I have no idea

just thanking his family and it was very

moving to be in there for it but what he

said was the prevention in his case

wouldn't have been there but in most

people's cases it is and I imagine

there's going to be a huge amount

attention on this and he and he said not

only does he want to be the first bionic

MP but he wants to raise awareness about

sepsis I have a an experience too which

is nothing like as bad as it was for you

and what happened to Craig but I also

had a really serious infection last

summer and I was hospitalized twice and

was in for nearly a week the second time

around on tons of anti- uh biotics it

took me weeks to recover but the thing

that really struck me with with Craig's

story and what you've just said just is

the speed in which you suddenly are in a

lot of pain but you just think I've got

temperature I've got I've eaten

something bad and I think that's one of

the problems that we have now is postco

everybody knows that the NHS is stressed

everybody knows things about people are

I don't want to worry people or I don't

think I can get a GP appointment or

whatever and and that's the kind of

danger and and that actually almost

everybody that works in the medical

profession will tell you if you have

concerns go we're not shot like yeah

yeah it's tough but you know like you do

not feel that you cannot come to us we

are here for you and we would rather

that we saw you then didn't see you yeah

and I just think with Craig I was

reading an article and his wife had said

you know when she realized and he woke

up from intensive care and realized that

his limbs that they were going to have

to be amputated his his wife said you

know I'm an optimist and this is the

start of our new life and actually for

him to come

back I know but for him to come back

with such Grace and courage humor and

honestly and and and to be now

campaigning to get more understanding

about this life threat can kill you I

just think it's like you know you take

that from a terrible experience and you

try and turn it into something positive

while being cleare eyed about everything

that he's lost because he did say you

know you know the feet I can kind of

deal with it's the it's the hands the

fact that I can't hold hands with my

wife I can't touch her I can't when I I

can still cuddle my daughter he's got a

young daughter and she's adapted really

well cuz kids adapt and stuff but he's

like it's losing that sense of touch and

I can't imagine I can't imagine it I

really I feel for the guy I feel for I

feel for his wife I feel for his

daughter I really do okay well look we

are out of time um have our weekend

plans

changed I have literally no concept of

what I'm doing at the weekend I was I

was actually meant to be flying to the

West Bank I don't know whether I I I am

still doing that I'm definitely I'll be

on a street in Yardley near you uh at

yeah what about you I have not got a

clue Sam coats has been dispatched to um

a sunak speech apparently he's going to

do like all the four nations in the next

40 hours that's soon at probably Sam as

well I will be I think I I have not a

Scooby what all over the I don't know

what I'm doing for the next six weeks

you're going to be going from Arrington

to

abine electoral dysfunction will still

be dropping into your feeds over the

campaign God knows where I'll be doing

it from but I will be doing it WhatsApp

voice notas on 07934

20004 over and out we'll see you soon

goodbye bye bye