[FULL] Perang Dagang AS-Tiongkok 'Gencatan Tarif', Sejauh Mana Risiko Masih Mengintai?

Summary

In this conversation, the discussion revolves around the recent trade agreement between the United States and China, which involves a temporary reduction of tariffs. Experts analyze the potential for peace between the two global powers, with one economist estimating a 30-40% chance of lasting peace due to geopolitical factors. Additionally, the conversation delves into the impact on Indonesia, emphasizing the need to diversify supply chains and attract investments amidst the trade tension. Lastly, the rupiah's volatility is explored, with considerations of Indonesia's economic policies and global factors affecting currency stability.

Takeaways

• 😀 The United States and China agreed to remove most of their tariffs and implement a 90-day ceasefire in their trade war.
• 😀 The U.S. tariff will decrease to 30%, while China's tariff will drop to 10% for the next 90 days.
• 😀 Despite the tariff reductions, economists caution that these rates are still high compared to previous levels.
• 😀 The U.S. and China do not want a 'decoupling' of their economies and have agreed to continue trade negotiations.
• 😀 China will reduce additional tariffs on U.S. imports from 34% to 10%, starting Wednesday, as part of the trade agreement.
• 😀 Both countries hope that this reduction will benefit bilateral trade and the global economy, but the future of negotiations remains uncertain.
• 😀 Josua Pardede, Head Economist at Bank Permata, suggests that peace between the U.S. and China is possible but still uncertain, with only a 30-40% probability.
• 😀 The trade dispute between the U.S. and China is not only about trade deficits but also involves technology dominance, supply chains, and national security concerns.
• 😀 U.S. President Trump may be realizing that the U.S. is not as powerful as before, with China’s growing global dominance and technological progress.
• 😀 Indonesia needs to improve its competitiveness, attract more investments, and diversify its supply chains to protect its economy from the impact of the trade war between the U.S. and China.
• 😀 The Indonesian government should strengthen its policies to improve the investment climate and support local industries to avoid becoming a passive player in global trade.

Q & A

What was the agreement between the United States and China regarding tariffs?

The United States and China agreed to remove most of the new tariffs. The US will reduce tariffs to 30%, while China will lower its tariffs to 10% for a period of 90 days. However, economists warned that these tariffs are still high compared to previous levels, and the outcome of future negotiations remains uncertain.

How did the tariffs affect the relationship between the US and China before this agreement?

Before the agreement, there was intense conflict between the US and China, as both sides increased tariffs on each other's goods, creating significant trade tensions and pushing both economies toward a trade war.

What was the key point in the discussions that took place in Switzerland between the US and China?

The key point discussed during the high-level trade talks in Switzerland was that both sides agreed not to decouple their economies and emphasized the importance of balancing trade and maintaining economic interdependence.

What impact did the tariff reduction have on the trade outlook between the US and China?

The tariff reduction provided temporary relief to markets, but the long-term trade outcome remains uncertain, as the reduction was a short-term measure rather than a permanent solution to the underlying trade issues.

What are the structural factors that may limit the possibility of lasting peace between the US and China?

The potential for lasting peace is limited by factors such as competition over technology dominance, supply chain dependencies, national security concerns, and differing value systems between the two nations.

What was the economist's view on the probability of a lasting peace between the US and China after the agreement?

The economist, Josua Pardede, estimated that the probability of lasting peace between the US and China is currently around 30-40%. This was based on the recent agreement but emphasized that future negotiations would determine whether this peace is achievable.

Did the US show any signs of weakness in its trade position against China?

Yes, the economist noted that the US has recognized that its position is not as strong as it once was, partly due to China's growing global dominance. This recognition led to the recent tariff reduction agreement as the US adjusted its trade strategy.

How should Indonesia respond to the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China?

Indonesia should focus on increasing its competitiveness, diversifying its supply chains, and attracting more foreign investment. Strengthening the capacity of its industries and improving labor productivity are also essential to position itself as a global player in the supply chain.

What role does Indonesia play in the global supply chain, and what challenges does it face?

Indonesia's involvement in the global supply chain is currently minimal compared to other Southeast Asian countries. As a result, Indonesian products face growing competition, especially from China, Bangladesh, and India, which impacts Indonesia's competitiveness.

What did Josua Pardede suggest Indonesia needs to improve to attract investment and strengthen its economy?

Josua suggested that Indonesia needs to enhance its investment climate by improving law enforcement, creating a more investor-friendly environment, and addressing issues like labor competitiveness. These efforts are crucial for attracting foreign investment, especially in the context of the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China.