Menkeu Paparkan Kerangka Ekonomi Makro - [Zonas Bisnis]

Summary

In a meeting with Indonesia's House of Representatives, key figures such as the Finance Minister, Governor of Bank Indonesia, and the Chairman of the Financial Services Authority discussed the 2026 macroeconomic framework and fiscal policy. The government outlined economic assumptions, including GDP growth projections, inflation rates, and fiscal policy measures. Emphasis was placed on job creation and economic growth, with the Minister noting the importance of quality jobs in expanding the middle class. Additionally, revenue and spending forecasts for the 2026 State Budget were reviewed, highlighting the economic outlook for the year.

Takeaways

• 😀 Commission 11 of the Indonesian House of Representatives (DPRRI) met with key government officials to discuss the 2026 macroeconomic framework and fiscal policy.
• 😀 Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati presented the proposed macroeconomic framework and budget posture for the 2026 State Budget.
• 😀 Sri Mulyani shared insights on global and domestic economic conditions, along with the performance of the 2025 State Budget for the first half of the year.
• 😀 The proposed macroeconomic assumptions for the 2026 Draft State Budget include 5.2-5.6% economic growth and 1.5-3.5% inflation.
• 😀 The rupiah exchange rate is projected to be between 16,500 and 16,900 per US dollar, with Indonesian Crude Oil (ICP) priced at $60-70 per barrel.
• 😀 The 2026 assumptions also include oil lifting at 600,000 to 605,000 barrels and gas lifting at 935,000 to 1.17 million oil equivalents per day.
• 😀 The poverty rate is expected to be between 6.5% and 7.5%, and the unemployment rate is projected at 4.5% to 5%.
• 😀 The employment ratio is forecasted to be between 0.379 and 0.382.
• 😀 State revenue in the 2026 National Budget (PBN) is projected at 11.71-12.22% of GDP, with state spending at 14.19-14.75% of GDP.
• 😀 The deficit for the 2026 budget is estimated at 2.48-2.53% of GDP, and consumption growth is expected to exceed 5%, depending on job creation and social assistance.

Q & A

What was discussed in the meeting of the Indonesian House of Representatives (DPRRI) and government officials?

The meeting discussed the macroeconomic framework and key fiscal policies for 2026, with a focus on the proposed macroeconomic assumptions and budget posture for the draft 2026 State Budget.

Who were the key participants in the meeting?

The meeting included the Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani Indrawati, the Governor of Bank Indonesia, the Head of BAPENAS, and the Chairman of the Board of Commissioners of the Financial Services Authority.

What was the role of Sri Mulyani Indrawati in the meeting?

Sri Mulyani Indrawati, the Finance Minister, presented the global and domestic economic conditions, the performance of the State Budget for the first half of 2025, and shared the year-end projections that could potentially affect the stability of Indonesia's domestic economy.

What macroeconomic assumptions were presented for the 2026 State Budget?

The macroeconomic assumptions for the 2026 State Budget include economic growth between 5.2% to 5.6%, inflation between 1.5% to 3.5%, a rupiah exchange rate of 16,500 to 16,900 per US dollar, and an Indonesian crude oil price (ICP) of 60 to 70 US dollars per barrel.

What are the expected figures for oil and gas lifting in 2026?

The expected oil lifting for 2026 is between 600,000 to 605,000 barrels, while gas lifting is projected to be between 935,000 to 1.17 million oil equivalents per day.

What were the projections for poverty and unemployment in 2026?

The poverty rate is expected to range from 6.5% to 7.5%, while the unemployment rate is projected to be between 4.5% and 5%.

What did Sri Mulyani emphasize about consumption growth in 2026?

Sri Mulyani emphasized that consumption could grow above 5%, potentially reaching 5.5%, and that consumption growth should not only rely on social assistance but also on job creation.

What did Hanif Dakiri contribute to the discussion on consumption?

Hanif Dakiri highlighted the importance of creating quality jobs to drive consumption growth, as it is the creation of jobs that will ultimately boost the middle class.

What were the projections for state revenue and state spending in the 2026 National Budget?

State revenue in the 2026 National Budget is projected to be between 11.71% to 12.22% of GDP, while state spending is estimated to be between 14.19% to 14.75% of GDP, leading to a deficit of between 2.48% to 2.53% of GDP.

What did Sri Mulyani mention about the design of the 2026 National Budget?

Sri Mulyani explained the design of the 2026 National Budget (PBN), which involves maintaining the fiscal framework within the projected range of revenue, spending, and deficit levels, ensuring a balanced approach to economic management.