How Will Supply Chains Be Impacted by Economic Uncertainty?
Summary
TLDR安德烈亚·索迪博士,田纳西大学供应链管理系讲师,讨论了经济不确定性对供应链的影响。他指出,由于疫情后消费者对市场不确定性做出反应,需求激增,导致一些产品和材料短缺,价格上升。供应链规划者需要重新定义良好的规划和预测参数,以应对政治决策等多变因素。零售商正在采取措施保护业务和利润率,可能通过增加库存来应对需求波动。供应链策略正在变得更加灵活和敏捷,以适应市场的快速变化。此外,环境、社会和治理(ESG)因素现在被视为供应链决策中不可或缺的一部分,而不仅仅是附加的“锦上添花”。
Takeaways
- 📈 **市场需求波动**:疫情后消费者对市场的不确定性反应活跃,导致需求激增,某些产品和材料出现短缺,进一步推高价格。
- 🔄 **供应链调整**:供应链规划者正在重新设计良好的规划和预测参数,以适应过去几年的非典型市场变化。
- 🛒 **消费者行为**:消费者在看到货架上的产品短缺时,倾向于购买更多商品,以防情况恶化,这进一步推高了需求。
- 📊 **预测复杂性**:过去两三年的经验表明,需求和价格预测不再是几个变量的简单练习,而是一个多变量的复杂练习。
- 📉 **经济政策影响**:政治决策对供需关系的影响变得更加显著,如中东局势和原油价格波动对供应链的影响。
- 🔍 **风险管理**:企业现在更加重视风险管理,减少对单一供应商的依赖,多元化供应商基础成为更战略性的长期行动。
- 💹 **零售商策略**:零售商通过保护供应链、产品供应和定价来准备应对经济不确定性,这可能会触发消费者端的更多需求。
- 📦 **库存管理**:组织对库存的态度变得更加开放,愿意增加一些库存以应对预测的不稳定性。
- 🌐 **地理多元化**:品牌和零售商正在考虑将生产转移至其他地区或国内,以减少对特定地区的依赖。
- ♻️ **ESG因素**:环境、社会和治理(ESG)的可持续性因素现在被视为供应链战略的一部分,而不仅仅是附加的好处。
- 🚀 **供应链韧性**:与三年前相比,供应链变得更加敏捷,能够更快地对市场变化做出反应并适应。
Q & A
当前供应链和需求的整体情况是怎样的?
-当前供应链和需求受到疫情后的影响,消费者对市场的不确定性反应活跃,导致需求激增,某些组件、材料和产品的短缺推高了价格,进一步加剧了需求的增长。
消费者在面对产品短缺时会有什么反应?
-面对产品短缺,消费者倾向于在情况恶化前购买更多,这会进一步推高需求,超出供应链规划者能够应对的范围。
供应链规划需要考虑哪些新的参数?
-供应链规划需要重新定义好的规划和预测应该是什么样子,需要考虑更多的变量,因为过去两年的情况已经改变了传统的规划和预测模式。
政治决策如何影响供需关系?
-政治决策,如中东的局势,会影响原油价格,进而影响供应链的成本和价格,这些政治决策几乎每周都在变化,增加了供需关系的不确定性。
供应链管理中的新常态是什么?
-新常态是供应链管理需要适应多变量的复杂性,这些变量相互交织,使得预测需求和价格变得更加困难。
零售商如何应对经济不确定性和潜在的衰退?
-零售商通过保护业务和利润率来准备应对经济不确定性,这包括保护供应链的可用性和产品的价格,这可能会在消费者端引发更多的需求。
供应链中的库存管理策略有哪些变化?
-组织对库存的态度变得更加开放,愿意增加一些库存以应对预测的不确定性,这虽然会增加成本,但也有助于保护业务。
供应链来源策略有哪些永久性的改变?
-企业更加重视风险管理,减少对单一供应商的依赖,通过多元化供应商基础来降低风险。
ESG(环境、社会和治理)如何融入供应链策略?
-ESG不再是一个可选的附加项,而是需要嵌入到供应链决策和设计中,成为决策过程中的一个重要因素。
供应链是否比三年前更有韧性?
-供应链变得更加敏捷,能够更快地对市场的变化做出反应,适应市场的波动和不确定性。
供应链管理中如何平衡成本和利润率?
-供应链管理中需要在保持利润率和控制资产负债表之间找到平衡,这包括对库存的适当管理,以保护业务不受市场波动的影响。
Outlines
😀 供应链管理与经济不确定性
第一段中,田纳西大学供应链管理系讲师Andrea Sordi博士讨论了当前供应链面临的挑战。他指出,后疫情时代消费者需求的急剧上升和市场不确定性导致了某些产品和材料的短缺,进而推高了价格。消费者在看到货架上出现短缺时,会倾向于购买更多商品,进一步推高需求。此外,供应链规划者需要重新定义好的规划和预测应该是什么样子,考虑更多的变量,并从过去两年的经验中学习。政治决策对供需关系的影响日益显著,如中东问题和原油价格波动等。
😀 零售商应对策略与供应链的可持续性
第二段中,Andrea Sordi博士继续讨论了零售商如何应对当前的供应链挑战。他提到,零售商正在采取措施保护自己的业务和利润率,这可能包括增加库存和调整价格策略。这种策略可能会在消费者中引发更多的需求,如果他们预期价格将继续上涨。此外,博士还谈到了供应链的多元化和风险管理的重要性,以及如何将环境、社会和治理(ESG)因素纳入供应链策略中。他认为,供应链现在更加灵活,能够更快地适应市场变化,并且对可持续性的关注不再是一个可选的附加项,而是必须嵌入到供应链决策中。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡供应链管理
💡经济不确定性
💡需求预测
💡库存管理
💡供应链弹性
💡供应链重设计
💡供应链多元化
💡ESG
💡风险管理
💡需求动态
Highlights
疫情后消费者需求的急剧上升和市场不确定性导致供应链紧张。
供应链中某些组件和材料短缺,导致价格上涨和需求进一步增加。
消费者对短缺的反应导致需求激增,超出供应链规划者的能力。
供应链规划需要重新定义,考虑新的变量和参数。
政治决策和原油价格波动对供应链有显著影响。
供应链管理需要适应更加多变的供需关系。
供应链预测变得更加复杂,需要考虑更多变量。
企业可能需要接受更多的库存来应对需求的不确定性。
零售商正在采取措施保护业务和利润率,以应对经济政策的影响。
供应链中的动态需求和供应波动可能会持续一段时间。
供应链策略需要考虑环境、社会和治理(ESG)因素。
供应链的可持续性不应仅作为附加选项,而应融入决策核心。
供应链变得更加敏捷,能够更快地适应市场变化。
风险管理在供应链策略中变得更加重要。
企业趋向于多元化供应商基础,减少对单一来源的依赖。
供应链策略需要将可持续性因素纳入决策过程。
供应链的韧性在过去三年中有所增强。
Transcripts
[Music]
foreign
how will supply chains be impacted by
economic uncertainty Andrea sordi is a
lecturer in the Supply Chain management
department at the University of
Tennessee hello Dr sorting hi nice to
see you again yeah and good thanks for
being with me today how do you see the
overall supply and demand picture right
now where are the biggest trouble spots
in Supply chains
well I think we are kind of a seeing the
effect of a post pandemic is you see
consumer account of a reacting in a very
active way to uh Spike up demands and
uncertainty in the market uh obviously
there are shortage of some some um some
components and materials and some
products where ours pushing prices up
and spikes demand even even further up I
think what we are observing is uh it's
sort of uh post effect of the pandemic
syndrome in a way where you know that
that syndrome of the shortage of the
toilet papers and now when you see
shortages on that on on the Shelf I
think the consumers are going to go and
buy even more before before that
situation is getting worse which is
going to spike the demand Beyond any any
single any single uh provision that that
supply chain planners can can do the
other the other aspects is that I think
from a planning standpoint from a supply
chain standpoint we try to redesign the
parameter of how good planning and
forecasting is gonna is gonna look like
in the last two years two or three years
uh uh have been not the norm uh but
definitely I've left the some
consequences so we um we need to
redefine what those uh new parameters of
good planning is going to look like what
are the variables we're going to take
into account well the hope is that we've
learned some lessons there I mean we
went through a period of time when there
was there wasn't enough product and then
all of a sudden when everybody when the
pandemic was relaxed and people went
back out into the world and consumer
products purchases went down suddenly
there was too much and warehouses were
full of a glut of product so right now
what are we doing we're bouncing back
and forth between that right now it's
not about bouncing back I think what we
are observing is that it is uh we are
realizing that much more uh variable
that impact the supply and demand
relationship is political decision there
are kind of a changing I wouldn't say
every day but almost every week uh
obviously there's a word the same so now
have not been ending any anytime soon
um we're saying the uh the issues in the
Middle East keep going on
um so does that and when the price of of
crude oil is going down and then all of
a sudden you're shutting down Supply and
the price goes up so there's a lot of
variables that are playing into the into
the mix and I think what um to your
point what we learned over the last two
to three years is that forecasting and
forecasting demand and forecasting
prices is not a few variable exercises a
multi-complex variable exercises and
those variables are interweens so it's
not that simple and that's that's the
new Norm we try to
um redescribe and redefine how to manage
it do you think that means that we no
longer feel like we need to settle on
like one number for a forecast and maybe
we can have a range that can be adjusted
depending on what actually happens maybe
there by making Supply agents a little
more adjustable to reality when it when
that occurs
I feel I think the adjustments
um needs to take into account much more
factors than what we used to make it
before
and what I'm also seeing I'm also saying
that
organizational less
uh adverse to inventory where possible
this is not negative
failing about adding a little bit too
much inventory if that additional
inventory can be a solution to that
variability that we're trying to predict
I see yeah do you believe I mean all
this talk about whether we are in a
recession or whether we're going to have
a recession this year a lot of
disagreement about that but what are
retailers doing are they preparing for a
recession anyway and if so how
lots of quantum interesting interesting
question and I'm not an economist so I
can't tell you whether we're going to be
in a recession or not the economists
can't tell you either by the way yeah
exactly no no no not very output to very
good uh plan here
um I think what retainers are
preparing to do they are preparing to
protect their business and their margin
um in a way they're protecting their
supply they're protecting the
availability of of private to sell but
also they are protecting their pricing
in their margin which in a way could
trigger more Demand on the consumer side
if the consumers are perceiving the
prices are going to keep going up
and that's kind of a weird virtual cycle
that is keep on you know fitting itself
it's kind of a it's kind of that's
Dynamic that we are that we're into
the economic policies that the Central
Bank are are um are trying to achieve
gonna come everything down without
pushing up into our session I don't know
um but I think from a supply chain
standpoint
I think these
active Dynamic of demand and Supply
going spiking up and down is going to be
something that we're going to keep
saying for a little while at least in a
number of Industries yeah one response
to that might be as you said a little
bit more inventory more buffer stock in
the system that of course raises costs
that's a drag on your balance sheet
you're trying to control it you know
control your as you say your profit
margin and yet prices are having to go
up because of inflation I it just seems
like a a terrible puzzle for retailers
it is but at the end of the day it's
it's that the balance between hey it's
your balance sheet more important than
your uh profit margin at the end and
what was the balance that that balancing
thing is is sending uh what I'm saying
is not that everybody should be creating
more stuff what I'm saying is that
that's less adversity or negativity to
the fact that
you have a little bit more to protect
your business yeah what permanent
changes do you think we might have seen
or be seeing in supply chain sourcing as
a result of what happened during the
lockdown and a lot of overseas factories
especially in China got shut down and
that caused A disruption of its Supply
um do you think that there isn't a
really an attempt by uh by Brands and
retailers now to diversify their their
sourcing either other parts of the world
or even bring some home or nearsuring
what's going on there in the sourcing
strategy
I think that's definitely a serious
concern about taking risk management
more seriously than we did before uh
there's definitely a less
adversity to diversifying your supplier
base and I'm seeing less and less
company go into single Source because
that's they realize that we all realized
it was too dangerous so scale and single
source is not always the answer to
profit and cost Effectiveness
specification of your supplier base
might be a more strategic uh long-term
movement that can provide benefit to
your organization it does mean that
everybody's going to near sure no there
are things you cannot near sure even if
you want
um you know
um raw materials
I can't grow cocoa beans in my backyard
here in Tennessee
from somewhere else now the question is
how I'm gonna be sourcing how I'm gonna
be they're risk in that supply chain
that's where I think organizational
focusing their attention at the moment
so in the midst of all these gigantic
challenges that retailers and Brands and
Supply chains are facing now we have the
huge Wild Card of ESG environmental
social governance sustainability how do
they work that into the strategy how
might that manifest itself in terms of
supply chain strategies going forward
well it's not nice to have anymore I
mean if you think about consumer asking
for that investor asking from that
regulator asking from that so it's
something that you need to embed in your
sourcing strategies you know supply
chain decision as of the design of the
your supply chain it cannot be something
you just simply lay on at the top of it
you just say icing on a cake that's come
as nice to have at the end so going to
the example I I was making before about
um you know the cocoa sourcing or
whatever sourcing from China for any
distance shorting
factor in sustainability and ESG
elements into that decisions
reassuring the mass shorter newer uh
might be a good a good solution for risk
might be a good solution for carbon
Footprints is this the best the best
decision
um I don't know uh could be but you need
to factor in uh elements of
sustainability into that into that
decision decision can't be ignored
are Supply chains more resilient now
than they were three years ago bottom
line
I think supply chain is more agile and
ready to reactive variances and
variability in the market more quickly
and adapt themselves to changes in the
market
it's good news to hear Dr Andrea sordi
of the University of Tennessee great to
speak with you thank you very much for
your insights really appreciate it thank
you Robert be a pleasure
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