ASML 주가 폭락이 주는 중요한 힌트! 엔비디아, TSMC 투자자라면 꼭 '이것'을 체크 해 보세요

Summary

In this urgent analysis, the speaker discusses ASML's recent earnings report, which was unexpectedly released ahead of schedule due to a leak. Despite outperforming market expectations, ASML's stock dropped significantly due to a stark reduction in order volumes, particularly in the system semiconductor sector. The speaker emphasizes the importance of major customers like TSMC, whose performance may heavily influence the semiconductor industry's future. With TSMC's earnings announcement approaching, stakeholders are keenly watching for potential signals of broader demand trends in the semiconductor market.

Takeaways

• 📊 ASML's earnings report was released a day early due to a leak, marking an unusual occurrence.
• 🔍 The presenter usually provides a preview analysis the day before earnings announcements but had to analyze ASML's results urgently.
• 💰 Key points of interest for Q3 earnings include capital expenditures by big tech companies, particularly in AI and semiconductor sectors.
• 📉 ASML's growth rate in net income and revenue had been declining prior to the earnings announcement, which historically correlates with poor post-earnings stock performance.
• ⚠️ ASML reported a significant drop in order volume for Q3, with only half of the expected orders being fulfilled, raising concerns in the market.
• 🏭 Major customers for ASML include TSMC, Intel, and various Chinese companies, with order reductions from these firms impacting ASML's performance.
• 📉 There was a notable decrease in order backlog for system semiconductors, which is critical for overall market sentiment.
• 🌏 ASML's revenue share from the U.S. increased significantly, suggesting possible gains from TSMC's new facilities in the region.
• 🤔 The presenter expressed concerns about the implications of TSMC's upcoming earnings report, as it could indicate broader trends in AI semiconductor demand.
• 📈 Despite order reductions, Taiwan's revenue contribution to ASML increased, hinting at resilience in certain markets.

Q & A

What was the unusual circumstance surrounding ASML's earnings announcement?

ASML's earnings report was released a day early due to a leak, which is a first for the speaker's experience.

What were the three key points mentioned regarding the Q3 earnings release?

The speaker highlighted the capital expenditures of big tech companies, the demand for AI-related chips, and the performance of semiconductor stocks as critical points to monitor.

What was the market reaction to ASML's earnings surprise?

Despite a positive earnings surprise, ASML's stock price fell significantly due to concerns about a dramatic drop in Q3 order volume.

How much did ASML's Q3 order volume decrease compared to estimates?

ASML's Q3 order volume was reported to be only half of the market estimates.

Which major customers of ASML were specifically mentioned in relation to order volume changes?

Key customers mentioned include TSMC, Intel, and Chinese semiconductor firms like Samsung and SK Hynix.

What implications does a decrease in TSMC's orders have for the semiconductor market?

A decrease in TSMC's orders could indicate broader issues within the AI demand across the semiconductor industry, potentially impacting other companies relying on TSMC for chips.

What trends were observed in U.S. sales for ASML?

U.S. sales for ASML increased significantly from 3% of total sales in Q2 to 21% in Q3, possibly indicating growth from TSMC's new U.S. facilities.

What does the speaker suggest investors should monitor closely following ASML's earnings?

Investors should closely watch TSMC's upcoming earnings report, as it could provide insights into the semiconductor market and influence ASML's outlook.

What is the speaker's view on the relationship between ASML's performance and AI demand?

The speaker expresses concern that a decrease in orders from system semiconductor clients, potentially linked to AI demand issues, could negatively affect ASML's future performance.

How does the speaker describe the pattern observed in ASML's earnings data?

The speaker notes that significant drops in order volume and earnings often correlate with declines in stock price, indicating a clear and honest pattern in ASML's performance data.