Tony Seba Speaker | Disruption of Transportation Past, Present & Future | Contact Agent

Summary

The transcript discusses the rapid advancement of electric vehicles (EVs), autonomous driving technology, and the transformation of the transportation industry. The speaker highlights how Tesla's autopilot is much safer than human drivers and the dropping costs of EVs, predicting $10,000 electric vehicles by 2025. The discussion also covers how fleets will benefit from EVs' long lifespans and lower costs, and the impending disruption with autonomous transport services. The talk touches on the decline of fossil fuels, military implications, and the broader impact of this technological shift on industries and geopolitics.

Takeaways

• 🚗 Tesla's autopilot is nearly nine times safer than the average American driver, potentially saving 900,000 lives globally each year.
• 📉 Electric vehicle (EV) costs are rapidly declining, with predictions of $10,000 EVs by 2025 for 200+ miles of range, faster than initially predicted.
• 🔋 EV powertrains last significantly longer than gasoline vehicles, with new EVs expected to last up to a million miles, benefiting fleet operations the most.
• 💡 Fleets, such as those operated by Amazon and Uber, are transitioning to EVs for economic reasons, as they drive more miles and can maximize the cost-efficiency of EVs.
• 🌍 EVs can power homes in emergencies, as seen with the Ford F-150 Lightning, which can power an average American home for three days.
• 🛣️ The next phase of transportation disruption involves Level 4 autonomous driving, with several companies already implementing this technology, driving a shift toward transportation-as-a-service (TaaS).
• 💸 TaaS will be 10 times cheaper than owning a car, even more economical than just the cost of operating a gasoline vehicle, leading to a decline in individually owned cars.
• 🔄 With the advent of million-mile EVs and TaaS, cars will transition from underutilized liabilities to high-utilization, cash-generating assets.
• ⛽ The oil industry faces significant disruption, with demand for oil expected to drop drastically by 2030, leading to cheaper oil prices and fewer internal combustion engine cars on the road.
• 🌍 The decline in oil demand will have geopolitical implications, particularly for countries dependent on fossil fuel exports, which could lead to increased aggression, as highlighted in the case of Russia.

Q & A

What safety advantages do Tesla vehicles with autopilot have over the average American driver?

Tesla vehicles with autopilot are reported to be almost nine times safer than the average American driver. If everyone used autopilot, it could save 900,000 lives globally each year, and the technology is continuously improving.

What prediction did the speaker make in 2014 regarding the cost of electric vehicles (EVs)?

In 2014, the speaker predicted that the cost of a 200-plus mile electric vehicle would significantly drop, and by 2025, such vehicles could be available for around $10,000. This prediction has largely come true, with vehicles like a $10,000 SUV recently announced.

How do electric vehicle powertrains compare in longevity to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles?

Electric vehicle powertrains can last around 500,000 miles, while the average gasoline vehicle lasts about 140,000 miles. Some EVs, such as those from GM and Tesla, can last up to a million miles, far outlasting ICE vehicles.

Why are fleet operators, like Amazon and Uber, transitioning to electric vehicles?

Fleet operators are transitioning to electric vehicles because they can drive up to 100,000 miles per year, making them more cost-effective than ICE vehicles. Over five years, a fleet would only need one EV compared to three ICE vehicles, leading to significant economic savings.

How are electric vehicles (EVs) contributing to home energy resilience?

Some EVs, like the Ford F-150 Lightning, can power a home for up to three days, making them valuable during power outages. This feature is becoming increasingly relevant as power outages become more frequent in areas like California and Texas.

What is the next phase of transportation disruption according to the speaker?

The next phase of transportation disruption is the adoption of level 4 autonomous technology, which allows vehicles to operate without human intervention. This will lead to the rise of 'Transportation as a Service' (TaaS), where fleets of autonomous electric vehicles offer rides at a fraction of the cost of individual car ownership.

How will the rise of 'Transportation as a Service' (TaaS) impact the cost of transportation?

When level 4 autonomous technology is approved, TaaS will reduce transportation costs by 10 times compared to owning a personal car. It will even be four times cheaper than just operating an existing gasoline car, leading to a significant shift away from individual car ownership.

How has supercomputing power advanced, and why is this relevant for autonomous vehicle technology?

Supercomputing power has improved exponentially. For example, in 2000, a supercomputer delivering one teraflop of computing power cost $50 million and filled a theater-sized room. By 2016, an 8-teraflop GPU cost $600 and could fit in your hand. This rapid advancement is crucial for the development of autonomous vehicles, which require immense computing power.

Why does the speaker believe the internal combustion engine (ICE) is becoming obsolete?

The speaker believes the internal combustion engine is becoming obsolete because electric vehicles, combined with autonomous driving technology, offer a cost-per-mile advantage. The cost of gasoline alone will soon exceed the total cost per mile of operating an autonomous EV through TaaS, making ICE vehicles economically unviable.

What geopolitical implications does the speaker foresee from the decline in global oil demand?

The speaker warns that the decline in global oil demand, which may have peaked in 2019, could lead to increased aggression from oil-dependent countries like Russia. As oil revenues shrink, these countries may become more aggressive, as seen with Russia's recent actions in Ukraine.