Nate Silver Is A Joke

Summary

The video discusses the growing influence of Republican-slanted pollsters in the Biden era, a shift from previous elections where fewer firms with systemic biases existed. It highlights how the rise of these firms, including some run by teenagers and right-wing Twitter accounts, has affected poll accuracy and credibility. Nate Silver's inclusion of such pollsters in his models is debated, raising concerns about the influence of election-denialism and polarized polling. The conversation also explores the impact of these pollsters on media coverage, campaign strategies, and public trust in polling data.

Takeaways

• 📊 The Biden era has seen a rise in Republican-slanted pollsters, often producing more data than nonpartisan firms.
• 🤔 Polling firms used to prioritize accuracy for credibility, but the incentive for some has shifted to promoting pro-Trump results, which can gain attention on outlets like Fox News.
• 🎯 Pollsters like Scott Rasmussen during the Tea Party era laid the groundwork for this by regularly providing Republican-favorable results.
• 🧑‍🎓 Some polling firms are now run by teenagers or right-wing Twitter accounts, like Patriot Polling, which was included in Nate Silver's models despite being run by high schoolers.
• 📉 Many right-wing pollsters tailor their results to align with Republican narratives, aiming for media attention rather than accuracy, creating a junk polling industry.
• 📢 Some pollsters, like Trafalgar Group, are known for questionable methodology and being associated with election denialism, yet are still cited in major polling aggregates like 538.
• 🧠 Poll aggregators like Nate Silver's models often include polls with little credibility, which can skew the overall averages and influence campaign decisions.
• 🔍 Some pollsters, such as those from the New York Times and Ipsos, are still considered reliable, though they sometimes face challenges with sampling.
• ⚖️ There is no equivalent left-leaning polling industry that manipulates data in the same way right-leaning pollsters do, creating an imbalance in media narratives.
• 📺 Certain pollsters have become regulars on Fox News, using their skewed polling data to promote specific political agendas, influencing public opinion and media coverage.

Q & A

What change in the polling landscape does the speaker highlight in the Biden era?

The speaker notes that during the Biden era, there has been a significant rise in pollsters with a Republican slant, producing as much or more data than nonpartisan firms. This is a departure from past elections, where only one or two well-known firms had systemic Republican biases.

Why does the speaker believe polling incentives have shifted in recent years?

The speaker believes that the incentive for many pollsters is no longer to have the most accurate results but to produce pro-Trump or Republican-leaning results. This shift is attributed to the rise of election denial and extreme political polarization, where pollsters can gain more attention and media appearances by showing favorable results for Trump.

What is an example of a poll run by teenagers mentioned in the transcript?

An example is 'Patriot Polling,' a polling firm run by two high school teenagers. They gained attention during the Pennsylvania Senate race between Dr. Oz and John Fetterman by releasing a poll showing Dr. Oz ahead, despite having no track record.

How does the speaker view Nate Silver's inclusion of questionable pollsters in his models?

The speaker criticizes Nate Silver for including polling data from firms with no professional background or track record, such as 'Patriot Polling.' The speaker suggests that Silver’s approach has become problematic in an era where some pollsters are motivated more by promoting Republican narratives than by providing accurate data.

What impact do these new Republican-leaning pollsters have on election models like 538's?

These Republican-leaning pollsters, including those run by less experienced individuals, are included in models like 538's, which can skew averages in favor of Republican candidates. This lack of quality control can mislead the public and drive campaign decisions and media coverage.

What role does the speaker attribute to Fox News in the rise of these pollsters?

The speaker notes that Fox News plays a significant role in promoting pollsters who deliver pro-Republican results, making them celebrities and giving them frequent media appearances. This creates an incentive for pollsters to produce favorable numbers for Republicans, regardless of accuracy.

Why does the speaker consider firms like Rasmussen problematic?

The speaker points out that Rasmussen has denied the 2020 election results, vaccine safety, and even the Holocaust, yet continues to be cited by major figures like Donald Trump. This creates a misleading picture of public opinion and undermines trust in polling data.

What does the speaker suggest about polling firms with Democratic-leaning methodologies?

The speaker acknowledges that some firms, like Morning Consult, tend to produce results favorable to Democrats due to their methodologies. However, unlike Republican-leaning pollsters, they are not explicitly run by Democratic operatives and aim for accuracy.

Which polling firms does the speaker recommend trusting for reliable results?

The speaker recommends trusting polling firms like Meist, which were very accurate in the 2022 Senate races. Additionally, state-level pollsters and major firms like Washington Post/ABC, Ipsos, and others with A+ ratings are generally reliable.

Why does the speaker criticize the inclusion of 'junk' Republican polls in institutional aggregators?

The speaker criticizes aggregators like 538 for including 'junk' polls from Republican-leaning firms, which shift the averages and mislead the public. These polls often lack transparency and professional methodologies, yet are given undue weight in political analysis.